Monday Morning Thoughts

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by vvarder, Dec 28, 2020.

  1. vvarder Franchise Player Bears

    We didn't even HAVE one of these last week. The apathy here is strong.

    * There were plenty of items for concern here. JJ being out was a massive hole the Jags exploited in the first half. The horrific call on the goal line. Mitch with that abomination of a throw into the endzone into 5 defenders.

    * patg pointed this out in the game thread about how the pass rush really never got home. I don't know who the announcer was but it was fucking hilarious to me when he said the Bears had a great pass rush. On paper, the players *should* be rushing the passer in a mean way, but they are ranked 15th in sacks and not passing the eye test.

    * My mind hasn't changed about Nagy or Pace. "Fire Everyone" is still on the table after this season, but I know there's almost no chance of it now, short of a complete embarrassment this week.

    * All that said, I am not lying when I say my brain has kicked into homer mode and is massively trying to convince myself this is possible. The matchups on paper strongly don't favor the Bears in this game and the Packers are straight up hot, dismantling the very good Titans last night. I read an article that says the Packers are something like 88% chance to win the game, and if I was ballparking I'd say it's more like 95%. But damn it man, I want this win, and I am rooting for that 5%. I realized it's like a beaten housewife syndrome. "No, THIS time he's changed and not going to beat me". These Bears are the same Bears they always have been. And these Packers are fielding their best team....in a long long time, their defense isn't complete garbage. "But I love him" - the Bears are going to beat me, but I'm all about letting them this time. My brain is on fire from the conflict between reality and homerism.

    * [​IMG]

    * Kudos to the NFL for the 7th seed, because without it, this game is meaningless except for spoilers. I don't know how everyone else feels, as if it cheapens the playoffs but to me it adds more. With the one and done playoffs you need to show up when it matters. How funny would it be to see the Steelers go from an absolute powerhouse to one and done in the playoffs, playing a game they would not have in previous years? Unlike other sports where a 5 or 7 game series more or less means only the "best" team ends up winning, in football the any given sunday and single elimination means anything can happen.

    * I don't buy the argument the players were told to lie down on the Jacksonville side. They are likely getting the #1 pick no matter what, especially with the Jets losing. They just really aren't good.

    * Is the Oline fixed? Or is it a better blocking scheme mixed with *actually running the ball*? I'd still love the Bears to draft a tackle 1st round.

    * What do we do next year with Trubs? I think it's clear that Foles is a bust for us, but his contract really means we have to keep him. And Arob at this point is likely gone. We can't commit big money to him, that would be stupid, but as next years QB he would be the best option likely. The future is....bleak. The button has to get pressed soon unless Trubs magics himself into a franchise QB, which he isn't.
     
  2. acrazyfool Franchise Player Over / Under Bears

    I'm in the same boat. My normal is to be optimistic so it's hard not fantasizing about making a run, even if we get in as an 8-8 team. (Kinda an odd season, it started to look like 10 wins would have just barely been enough to make it.)

    Mitch has been playing some nice games and putting points on the board. But he has done that before. I feel like we have said this so many times but we'll see how it goes against a good team. His lovers seem to gloss over the fact he is 3-2 since his return. The two losses being division games which are the most important.

    Outside of play calling I think the oline finding some sort of life has really helped. I'd love to know what the secret sauce to that was.

    We really need the D to show some life on Sunday. They have the ability to shit anyone down. But will they show up and do it? Likely not.
     
  3. patg006 M.V.P. Bears

    Not strong. I just know what this team is and isn't and am not trying to kid myself. The 6 straight losses said a lot about this team; as did a few crappy wins with a cheap interpretation of the Rams offense against said bad teams.

    This is the only thing that matters: Are the bears closer to a Superbowl with what they have in the present direction under this coaching staff/front office? There's just no way I can believe the answer can be 'yes.' Defense is old, and if Akeim Hicks goes down it's fucked. He's also taken a step back. Still playing at a high, effective, and disruptive level--but as the cliche goes--Father Time always wins. Eddie Jackson has made a business decision this year to not give a shit. Robert Quinn laughed to the bank. Khalil Mack tries but never is on the stat sheet.

    Mitch still makes the same damned mistakes, and it took 3/4 of the season to figure out who actually deserves game reps on the offensive line. This offense and its leadership by Nagy just gets in its own way.

    But even with some nice pieces. Is this team an 'Eddie Goldman' away from winning the Superbowl? How about even the NFC? NFC North?

    Don't get me wrong, it's not 100% shit. They can be competent. Trevathan and especially Noquan have been the only starters on defense earning their pay. Noquan is an All Pro snub. Kyle Fuller is a wizard in a league where the offense is pampered by refs. Bilal Nichols has taken a big step forward. Brent Urban and Mario Edwards have shown more than RRH ever could, and we found a kicker. I hate him as a gadgety offensive player but Cordarrelle Patterson is a hell of a kick returner. And a couple of guards, one nice back up in Bars, and a potential diamond in the rough with Mustipher--but what's obviously infuriating is--why the hell did it take so long to play these guys? What in the hell made you think Rashad Coward was someone you needed to have start?

    I think a complete embarrassment gets Ryan Pace. I think Nagy bought himself a year.

    Committing big money to Allen Robinson isn't stupid. It's difficult to do given Pace's fucking of the cap, and while the obvious thing to do is cut Leno, Massie and Skrine--Pace won't do all three. That being said--it is possible to open up a ton of space. The problem is you're going to kick Khalil Mack's and Kyle Fuller's big money down the road instead of eating it.

    As for QB. For me, it's 4 more quarters of Mitch then good luck. You're stuck with Foles because our dickhead GM decided to give him more guaranteed money instead of eating his big money this year from the contract the Jags gave him.

    I'm in the boat of going OT round 1. I don't care who it is. The college jersey is window dressing, make goddamned sure that you find the Duane Brown or the Brandon Albert of the draft instead of being the idiots who took Chris Williams. I don't care if that's the Northwestern kid, the Michigan kid, the VT kid, the ND kid, the Clemson or Bama kid. Don't care where he comes from. Make sure he can play left tackle.

    But as for drafting a guy, even a 2nd/3rd rounder--I just can't see how our idiot GM should be allowed to make that decision--even though my preference is that. Especially in a year with a mid-late 1st pick--with WFT's situation with Duane Haskins today being a prime example of why you don't draft a QB for the sake of drafting the position in the 1st round.

    Find a LT who can protect. You have a couple of weapons with 2 nice ones to look forward to growing in Kmet and Mooney. Find the coaches with a system that isn't going to change in a year, that isn't ass-backwards and play to the strengths of guys--not forcing the kid to learn something he can't figure out. Then worry about the QB.
     
    blang84 likes this.
  4. blang84 Legend Bears

    Not sure it's apathy or lack of belief in the team. I always use the Packers game every season as a barometer for where we stand as a team. Most of the time they are superior in all aspects. The results, including the game last month, speak for themselves. Folks here, and the ones who used to come around, are realistic. No one here expects anything different from the team, so fewer threads and posts.

    It took him getting injured for Nagy/Lazor to start giving Monty 20+ carries a game. I'm with Patg, I love Patterson as a returner but his injury has opened the door for Monty the last few weeks. Hopefully, even if he's healthy, he's not lining up in the backfield at all on Sunday.

    I would like to feel good about something with this team, it's rare when we can feel good. Even at 5-1 we were shitting on them, deservedly so. A convincing win this Sunday would leave a great feeling for all of us going into the offseason, even if we get trounced in the wild card game.
     
  5. bigrobo876 Franchise Player Bears

    Looking at this situation realistically no matter what happens next Sunday the Bears are not going to fire either Pace or Nagy. They will in fact be placed directly into the hot seat for next season so forget about any sound decisions being made with an eye toward the future. Both these idiots will be playing for their jobs so it will be another all in season.

    I am sure they will find a way to bring Trubisky back for another prove it year. I don’t see anyone else in the league giving him anything other than a one year deal. I would think they want to somehow part ways with Foles. So that will be interesting. This will undoubtedly lead to missing on yet another QB prospect. Does anyone really think Pace is going to find a QB with anything other than the 1st pick in the draft and a know brainer blue chip prospect to take?

    I am convinced that the defense will never be elite under Pagano. Right now the D ranks 10th in the league. Not bad but not what it could be IMO. If Nagy is going to make it long term here he is going to need a better person running the defense. Urban is the only player I really want back who is coming out of contract. Rest of the defense is on board for next season so I think it will be at least another year before the defense crumbles.

    As for this game coming up it would be nice to peak at the right moment wouldn’t it. Show the world the last few weeks wasn’t just feasting on bad defenses. The defense gives us their game of the year. Bears roll into playoffs off a defeat of their hated rivals. It would be a dream come true. I wish I could believe it to be possible but come on. It ain’t gonna happen. This is the Bears. And even if they do pull off the upset we probably see the same Packers the next weekend for a nationally televised embarrassment of a revenge game by the same hated packers.
     
  6. patg006 M.V.P. Bears

    I can absolutely buy the McKaskeys giving this another go next year with Pace and Nagy. Don't agree with it and don't want it but see it happening at about 60%.

    But assuming that happens, what do you do with Pagano? His contract is up, he hasn't been good and down the stretch, the defense has regressed.

    If Nagy's/Pace's jobs are on the line, is Pagano coming back? Can't believe a good defensive coordinator would come here for the potential of 1 year, complete house cleaning followed by a new GM that cans him.
     
  7. vvarder Franchise Player Bears

    I admit, I have come down to earth and realism has crept back in. I don't know where that hope was coming from but looking at the matchups, how well the Packers are playing, rewatching the last Packers/Bears game....we are looking at getting smacked around for sure. I DO believe this time the Bears are going to put up some points though. If they can get the run game going like they have, they can score more than they did in that last ridiculous game, HOWEVER, I am not at all convinced the Defense is going to be able to do anything to contain Rodgers the way he's playing, and they're also running the ball well.

    I could see the Bears putting up 30+. I don't think it will be enough though. I am *shocked* that the line is only -4 Packers. Either there's that many Bears homers betting, or people legitimately see this as a close game.

    Oh, I wasn't clear, when I said "him" I meant we can't commit big money to Trubs. A-rob I'd love to bring back if they can manage it, and I agree, he should get paid, he's been one of the few dudes still balling out. I get your point on letting Mitch walk, but doing that really is saying, "we intend to tank" and they should fire sale. Foles really did flat out suck. I'm ok with that, I don't think George and company ever are.

    Going LT Rd 1 and QB Rd 2, I would be ok with, but honestly I would have been ok with this every year after Mitch was drafted tbh. And I don't know that I want a Rd 2 QB thrown to the wolves. I do agree with you 100% though it is crystal clear our current GM does not have an eye for QB talent, so he's not finding that "next Russell Wilson" in the 3rd sadly.

    Yeah, I get it. Where I'm at right now is, show me. Everyone in the media, here, everywhere, is doubting the shit out of the validity of your past 3 games due to the competition. Show the fuck up and beat the Packers for once. You will instantly garner any and all respect. Honestly, this game is probably the most important one to the GM, HC, franchise, since Pace has been here, and that includes the WC game. Had they beat the Eagles they were still getting trounced the next round. Beat the Packers, and you have a legitimate team with a shot. I think we all know that's not true, but if they do it, I will believe. You got trounced before. You had a 6 game losing streak. All of that will mean dick if you win Sunday. I'm not optimistic really, more pissed off, and will be watching the game with that mindset I think. Don't deliver to what I almost 100% believe you will and get smacked around again. This team talks and chirps so goddamn much, back it up for once.

    That's just it, as pat said and I whole heartedly agree. Pace, for all the things he's done right has shown he has no eye for QB. Mitch, Glennon, Foles, and only Mitch drafted ever. It is the least likely thing in the world that Pace will suddenly get it right, no matter where he picks.
     
  8. dlinebass5 M.V.P. Bears

    I read that the Bears can still get a playoff spot if they lose, as long as other games fall their way. F***, that would piss me off. If this team gets plastered by Green Bay and then backs into the playoffs, saving everyone's jobs...

    I haven't decided yet whether or not I'm going to tune in this weekend. I don't think it's going to go well. But hard to not watch the potential last game of the season / playoff qualifying game...
     
  9. patg006 M.V.P. Bears

    But even then I think perspective is warranted. If the bears get utterly humiliated against the Packers but get in because the battle of garbage back up QBs in Arizona/LA bounces their way, you needed luck AND an extra playoff spot to get in what is clearly a cash-grab year with the virus.

    I'm going to watch. Because I hate myself. I'm open minded. Maybe I get through 3 quarters. Maybe I call it quits halfway through the 1st.

    I suppose garbage time points are still points...

    After the cotton bowl last night (which I think the kid did on purpose to not be considered #2 by the Jets)--it looks like Kyle Trask. Trask I think is the best option for Nagy's system (I'm not counting Trevor Lawrence).

    Problem is--watch Pace give up more draft picks unnecessarily to trade up in the 1st to get him. I'd show up for the Ev rant before turning in my bears' fandom card...

    For Nagy's system, the kid would be a project but late-round pick kid from A&M--Kellen Mond is a guy to develop--or just get Tyler Bray the fuck out of here. Every week they protect him on the PS and I don't get it--because he's garbage. No divisional rival is going to swoop in and steal him/Nagy's precious signs.
     
  10. blang84 Legend Bears

    I pointed out in another thread that's been basically 30 years since the Bears offense scored 30 points against the Packers, when you remove defense/special teams TDs from the 2 games that they did score at least 30 during that period.

    This is a good article that breaks down Mitch's performance over the course of his career against teams with winning records: https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/b...ky-needs-career-day-history-says-its-unlikely

    The biggest takeaway, it's not good and Mitch has only faced one winning team this season (Packers last month):
    The only game against an opponent with a winning record in which Trubisky has had a passer rating of 100 or more came in that [2017] aforementioned Panthers game in which John Fox and Dowell Loggains took the ball out of his hands.

    Any big points Mitch puts up will come in garbage time. Packers will lead comfortably by 2-3 scores most of the second half and probably go run heavy in the 4th quarter with the game out of reach.
     
  11. blang84 Legend Bears

    As much as I wanted to blow things up after this season, the 3 game winning streak means it won't happen. 2021 will not be a fun year.

    Sign Mitch to a low level deal. Roll with him, Foles, Nagy, and Pace. Miss the playoffs and then blow everything up.

    We can look forward to a rookie QB, new front office, and new head coach in 2022.
     
  12. vvarder Franchise Player Bears

    The scenario isn't even complicated. The Rams (without Goff) have to beat the Cardinals who just lost to the 49ers. They are in the late game just like the Bears, but the Cards are currently 3 point favorites and a lot of the "predictions" put this at about 50/50 on who wins. Backing into the playoffs in the new 7 team format at 8-8 should not be enough to save anyones job. But this is the bears we're talking about.

    Now, if the Bears gets crushed by the Packers and back in to the playoffs? Even were they to upset the Saints or Seahawks wild card weekend that wouldn't come close to redeeming this team in my eyes. There are only two ways to redeem this team:
    1. Beat the Packers (this weekend, or in the playoffs if you back in)
    2. Win the Super Bowl.

    Neither is particularly likely, but this weekend is one of their chances.

    Fuck you for putting this in writing. Odds are at this point Pace will trade up at some point anyway, he loves to give away draft picks.

    I watched a thing by Cowherd, and he said something along the lines of, the Bears just have to be "ok" for fans to show up. He's not all that wrong really. This team squeaks out another 8-8 season and the stadium would be full if it weren't for Covid. He meant it in the context of Trubisky (as well as Dak), that they might as well sign him, because he's good enough to be mediocre and every once in a while he can win you the division (if Rodgers gets hurt, etc). I could see the McCaskeys thinking exactly that. But your article is good on something super important. Mitch shits the bed most when it is important. He's got the bumslaying down pat. Just like that tweet I saw showing how Mitch does vs. good teams, and vs. mediocre/bottom dwellers. It's night and day.

    But beyond all odds, the football gods have put him in a position to give a single game performance to prove his worth. He's going to shit the bed, as he always does when the lights are bright. And even if he doesn't, there's almost no chance the Bears D actually locks down the Packers. I thought the Bucs were going to roll over the Bears, and by rights they should have. There's no reason the same thing couldn't happen again though, and for that reason I will be watching. That and the fact that it's a relevant Week 17 game for the Bears, which doesn't happen all that often.
     
  13. vvarder Franchise Player Bears

    Bakhtiari is now out, per Rappaport - hurt himself in practice, ACL. That's a definite loss for the Packers.
     
  14. acrazyfool Franchise Player Over / Under Bears

    So David Bakhtiari is out. Doesn't think it changes things too drastically but it gives a bit of an opening.

     
  15. patg006 M.V.P. Bears

    Just saw it. Wish I could say it made a difference. Bears could barely touch Glennon with their back up lt.

    Edit: Don’t really need to explain Erin is pretty good when you give him all day. Don’t ever want to see a 3 man rush Sunday in any situation.

    I expect Quinn will run into whoever is the back up and disappear from the play just the same
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2020

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