Baltimore Orioles (82-57, 1st +9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (67-74, 4th -16.0) Trends Baltimore: +3, L10: 8-2 Cincinnati: -2, L10: 5-5 Game 1 (7:05) (QS=11)Wei-Yin Chen (14-4) 3.83 (1.25/.273), 116/28, (22HR) vs. (QS=13)Alex Cobb (9-7) 2.98 (1.17/.233) 128/39, (9HR) Wei-Yin Chen: After being on a roll for six weeks, Chen has struggled in the last two. He allowed two runs on seven hits and three walks in 4.2 IP against the Rays two starts ago and allowed four runs on eight hits in his last against the Twins. His last two starts against the Rays were bad as the other was five runs on seven hits, two walks and three home runs in 3.1 innings. Perhaps the Rays are starting to figure Chen out and several of their hitters have home runs off of him. Chen has a .288 BAA while righties hit .268 and these numbers used to be almost even. 2014 Away (12 starts) (7-2) 3.88 (1.21/.260), 11HR Career vs. Tampa Bay (12 starts) (3-4) 3.53 (1.33/.271), 10HR vs. Batter Ben Zobrist (32 AB) .375, 2 2B, HR, 3RBI Desmond Jennings (28 AB) .250, 2 2B, HR, RBI Evan Longoria (21 AB) .286, 2 2B, 3RBI Sean Rodriguez (21 AB) .190, 2B, HR, 2BI Yunel Escobar (17 AB) .118, 2B, HR, RBI Logan Forsythe (10 AB) .300, HR, 2RBI Alex Cobb: Cobb only lasted four innings in his last start against us, but only gave up two runs on three hits and three walks. That would technically be 12 straight starts of three runs or less and 10 of them were two or less. In his last eight decisions, Cobb is 7-1 with the loss coming in his last start where he allowed two runs (one earned) in 6.1 innings against Boston where the Rays got shut out. Cobb has been great both at home and against us for his career and in his other start against us this year, he went seven innings and allowed only one unearned run on four hits and four walks, but lost that game because we shut them out. Righties are hitting .253 off of Cobb while lefties are only at .211. 2014 Home (11 starts) (3-5) 2.69 (1.11/.213), 4HR Career at Camden Yards (0 starts) NA Career vs Baltimore (7 starts) (4-1) 2.14 (1.17/.206), 2HR vs. Batter Adam Jones (21 AB) .190, RBI Nick Markakis (15 AB) .333, 2B J.J. Hardy (16 AB) .313 Nelson Cruz (14 AB) .214, RBI Chris Davis (13 AB) .154, 3B Caleb Joseph 2/4, 2RBI Our lead maintains at 9.5 games and we're now on a three game winning streak after rolling the Reds, but the Rays won't be so easy especially with Chen's performance the last two starts against them and that Cobb almost always pitches well against us. We dont have many guys that hit him particularly well, but righties are the way to go. We're finally heading down the final stretch of an almost certain division-winning season. Chen needs to get back on track here as he sits only one win away from 15. Hopefully, it won't be one of those prolonged things. He used to be very strong against the Rays, but they have made an adjustment and now Chen must do the same.
WOW......big blunder by Buck. No score in the 8th and he brings in a guy who hasn't pitched since July 31st...and he sucked then giving up a run and 3 hits in 1 inning of work. today he gives up 2 hits and a walk along with 2 earned runs So then in comes Evan Meeks who proceeds to give up 2 hits and a walk to account for 1 more run. Great move Buck.....hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come. The bullpen has been pretty back over the last 2-3 games. And then to lead off comes Adam "damn I got somewhere I gotta be" Jones and he swings at 2 balls and 1 strike.....on 3 straight pitches.
Buck has to be better at managing the resting of the bullpen. I think we are resting some guys out there way too much and if they are only throwing once every three or four games, eventually they aren't going to be sharp when they are needed. O'Day showed that in the Cincinnati series. It's good to rest guys, but to use someone like Evan Meek over our other guys almost makes it feel like Buck is a little overconfident and maybe willing to give up some games? Maybe that's a bit of a stretch, but we have to keep using guys like O'Day, Miller and the other guys out there that got us to this point and not over-rest them. They need work to stay sharp and we don't want to dull the edge of our bullpen down the stretch. They need to be rested for the postseason, sure, but they also need to be SHARP! They need to be used more instead of doing all you can to avoid using ALL of them with guys like Meek and put guys out there like you are trying to win the game, not throw in the towel. I don't know why Meek is still around since he hasn't earned a spot out there. Webb was pretty good for awhile, but yeah, he was rusty. Meek is always rusty and should not be out there for us especially not in close games.
Baltimore Orioles (82-59, 1st +8.5) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (69-74, 4th -14.0) Trends Baltimore: -2, L10: 7-3 Tampa Bay: +2, L10: 4-6 Game 3 (1:40) (QS=9)Bud Norris (12-8) 3.83 (1.23/.248), 112/42 (14HR) vs. (QS=3)Jeremy Hellickson (1-3) 3.74 (1.34/.267), 37/13 (6HR) Bud Norris: Norris looked dominating again against the Reds after struggling for the two starts prior to that, but the stats won't be doing him any favors in this one. He has struggled on the road, against the Rays and during day games this season and two TB hitters are hitting over .500 against him; James Loney and David DeJesus. Really, I can't find anything on paper that favors Norris in this one. Lefties hit him slightly better than righties at .253 vs. .242 with HR split down the middle. This could be a rough outing. 2014 Away (13 starts) (6-6) 4.73 (1.26/.249), 9HR Career vs. Tampa Bay (5 starts, 1 relief) (1-2) 4.35 (1.52/.261), 5HR 2014 Day Games (6 starts) (2-4) 5.70 (1.43/.286), 3HR vs. Batter James Loney (21 AB) .524, 3 2B, 3RBI David DeJesus (15 AB) .533, 3HR, 5RBI Ryan Hannigan (12 AB) .250, 5RBI Ben Zobrist (12 AB) .167, HR, 2RBI Desmond Jennings (11 AB) .273, 2 2B Evan Longoria (11 AB) .182, 2B, HR, 3RBI Matt Joyce 4/9, RBI Jeremy Hellickson: Hellickson's last two starts, one against us, have seen him allow nine runs (eight earned), 16 hits, four walks and three home runs over his last 7.2 IP. He allowed four of those runs against us with one being unearned in 4.1 IP and has struggled at home this season in his five starts. He has done well against us for his career, but it's obvious he still isn't right after spending half the season on the DL and we have several guys that hit him well with Davis having nine RBI against him. His left/right splits are pretty dramatic with lefties hitting .215 off him and righties hitting a whopping .342 with a .852 OPS. 2014 Home (5 starts) (0-3) 5.32 (1.73/.312), 4HR Career at Camden Yards (0 starts) NA Career vs Baltimore (16 starts, 2 relief) (9-4) 3.38 (1.16/.235), 12HR vs. Batter Adam Jones (44 AB) .364, 2B, 4HR, 5RBI, 2SB Nick Markakis (41 AB) .220, 2B, 2HR, 6RBI J.J. Hardy (39 AB) .282, 2 2B, 2HR, 2RBI Chris Davis (29 AB) .379, 3 2B, 2HR, 9RBI Alejandro De Aza 3/9, 2 2B David Lough 1/3, RBI Two tough losses in a row now, but at least we still have an 8.5 game lead. Bullpen wise, I see now that O'Day has been dealing with hamstring AND hip issues, but apparently was available for yesterday's game. Knowing this, it is the right move of course. I guess I missed that little tidbit of information when I vented my frustration at Buck and Miller has been dealing with hamstring issues as well, so I guess we'll be seeing more of Evan Meek. Other than him, that leaves Saunders, Webb, McFarland, Matusz, Jimenez, Hunter, Brach and Britton. Aside from Britton, Brach and perhaps McFarland, we really don't have much out there unless Webb can regain his form, but we need to let O'Day and Miller heal up and that could mean some more ugly bullpen work coming up. Good thing we had this huge division lead, huh? Adam Jones seems like he's falling back into that "swing at everything" mode again which is not good either, but Berry was nice to bring off the bench. Now, if he can just learn to hit, he'd be a top of the order hitter. Also, sorry for not putting up a matchup yesterday. I had forgotten it was a day game and only saw some of the game, but Gausman looked good overall. It's a shame we had to lose the game like that on national TV, though.
Cruz has again proven that he should be in the talks for AL MVP this year. The guy just keeps coming through. I hopefully see him signing a contract extension with the Orioles in the near future. He really seems to fit in well here and appears to be well liked and respected in the dugout. The thing that sticks out most is his being the first one to the top step of the dugout to congratulate a team mate who either scores a run, hits a home run or just does something for the good of the team. He appears to have formed a bond with Schoop and that is good taking a young player under your wing. I feel that the Orioles will extend an extension to Davis...his hitting woes can be corrected with work. Weiters in my opinion is expendable since we seem to have a good platoon system working quite well.
Both Davis and Weiters are represented by Boras which means there is zero chance of an extension with either one and it's also one reason why I think we need to trade Weiters to get something for him now and be prepared to sell high on Chris Davis. He has a terrible uppercut swing which only works well when the pitch is low. On mid to high level pitches, the bat and ball are on the same plane for only a split second. If his swing was level, he'd make a lot more contact, but he drops his hands so much and it has always been this way. No changes which means either Davis is unwilling to change it or it just doesn't work for him. Even still, Boras changes the whole situation. Davis is a sell high guy if he bounces back next season IMO. As for Cruz, he will be 35 next season and power is pretty much all he's good for. When that goes, and it will soon unless he has help, Cruz will not be worth whatever contract he signs. Furthermore, he has had one decent month, one great month and three absolutely horrible months thus far. September may be another great month when it's all over with, but he was hitting around .215 for three months. That, to me, is a red flag and also makes his stats misleading. We got him on a bargain for one year and that's enough. The pick will be good, that is, if he doesn't accept the QO after being burned on it last year. Resigning him would be a mistake.
You can't sell high on Davis and Wieters because neither would bring back a large return. Unless you really want a few B- prospects. You know, guys that could succeed but won't. Maybe we can trade them at the deadline next year but hopefully the team will be doing well. If you're 15 games over .500 at the deadline you simply can't sell, ya know? I think Cruz will get some MVP votes but I'd only want him at the QO. He does have 39 HRs compared to guys like V-Mart, Trout, Bautista and Abreu having in the low 30s. But those guys all have higher averages and higher walk totals. Trout only has a BA of .285 but he's a good base runner.
Well, I know we can't sell high on Weiters. I was talking about Davis if he were to bounce back next season; there's no selling high on him this season and I still say the TJ surgery won't hurt Weiters' value much. As for potentially trading when 15 games over at the deadline, it really depends who we have to fill the gap and/or what we would get in return. I really just don't want to see us lose guys and get little to nothing in return like we have many, many times in the past or waiting too long to make our move. I was crazy enough to suggest trading Davis before this season though of course no one agreed, but I kind of expected this from him this year. He had "flash in the pan" written all over him, but we'll see what happens with him next season. I think Weiters is an offseason trade candidate. Everyone knows what Weiters is by now and TJ surgery won't affect his value like it would a pitcher. If it was his knees or something, that's different of course. I really don't want Cruz back at any price, but if he accepts the QO, we don't have a choice, right? Yeah, all those guys you mentioned bring more than one thing to the table. Mike Trout can do just about everything well. Cruz does one thing well and time is running out.
If Cruz accepts a QO then we need to tender him a contract for 15.2 million (or whatever) for one year. But that doesn't mean we can't trade him. If you can get a team to eat his contract and send us a B prospect or 2 B- prospects then that should be fine. Can you get a team like Seattle or the Athletics to trade you a prospect like Chance Sisco or two guys like Mike Wright in return for Cruz AND eating his entire contract (15 or 16 million dollars)? I think that's a reasonable gamble. At the very least someone will eat his contract.
