The math isn't complicated. Atlanta has six more draft picks. Atlanta doesn't necessarily have six more open roster spots for them. I see a hole at left guard, possibly an OL reserve, possibly a defensive lineman, an opportunity to beat out the depth candidates at WR, and a definite opening for a backup safety. After that, it's going to be hard for late picks or UDFAs to crack this roster. Here's how the projection looks after the first round pick of RB Bijan Robinson: QB: Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinecke (possibly Logan Woodside as #3) I'm guessing that if Woodside sticks, he's on the practice squad. There might also be a draft pick upcoming that could replace him. RB: Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson, Avery Williams, Caleb Huntley (may be starting the season on the PUP list) Note that Patterson and Williams also serve as the kick returner and punt returner, so five RBs is indeed likely. FB: Keith Smith I had the Falcons pegged to drop the full time fullback last year and go with TE Parker Hesse doubling as the lead blocker. But they kept Smith and even resigned him for this season. So it seems like he's still in their plans. TE: Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, Parker Hesse, Jon FitzPatrick There are three other candidates who will compete with Hesse and FitzPatrick for those last two spots. The important thing is the team is likely to keep four, because it's a strength of the offensive roster and because Arthur Smith plays a lot of 2-TE and 3-TE formations. I'm going with these four. WR: Drake London, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, KhaDarel Hodge, [TBD] Before the second round of the draft, 2021 late rounder Frank Darby and 2022 undrafted rookie Jared Bernhardt would appear to be the top in-house candidates for a fifth WR spot. My take is the team is far more likely to keep the fourth TE than a sixth WR. If we see a WR drafted in rounds 2-4, my guess is the new guy beats them both in camp. OL starters: Jake Matthews, [TBD], Drew Dalman/Matt Hennessy, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary Hennessy was one of the players who filled in for Elijah Wilkinson at left guard. Jalen Mayfield started at left guard in 2021. But Mayfield lost the battle (quickly and decisively) in 2022, then got hurt and missed most of the season. Hennessy likewise struggled at center in 2021 and lost the starting job for 2022. So my guess is someone else is on the way before the start of the regular season. I wouldn't be surprised if we find out who in the first hour of the second round tonight. OL reserves: pick any four out of Germain Ifedi, the other of Dalman/Hennessy, Jalen Mayfield, Justin Shaffer, Kyle Hinton, Joshua Miles, Tyler Vrabel, Ryan Neuzil, Jonotthan Harrison. Edge/OLB: Arnold Ebiketie, Bud Dupree, Lorenzo Carter, DeAngelo Malone, Ade Ogundeji Note that LB Kaden Elliss is also part of this group. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen lined Elliss as a pass rusher near the end of the 2022 season while both were with the Saints, and Elliss racked up six sacks in seven games. Interior DL: Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, Ta'Quon Graham, Eddie Goldman, Timmy Horne There might be an opening here, if the team isn't comfortable with depending on Goldman to remain unretired. He packed it in last year. Will he actually play this year? Linebacker: Troy Andersen, Kaden Elliss, Mykal Walker, Tae Davis Cornerback: A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, Dee Alford, Darren Hall, Cornell Armstrong Safety: Jessie Bates, Richie Grant, Jaylinn Hawkins, [TBD] Yes, there's room for a prospect at safety. There are some returning prospects already in-house, but it's safe to say the spot is truly up for grabs. Specialists: Younghoe Koo, Bradley Pinion, Liam McCullough
Day two of the draft... that TBD at left guard is Syracuse OT Matthew Bergeron. They even listed him as GUARD on the card when they selected him. They traded up to get him. The trade price was their extra fourth rounder - which was the second pick they got from trading Julio to the Titans. (The first pick they got from the Julio trade was a second rounder last year, which they used to select LB Troy Andersen.) Zach Harrison is a good addition for the defense, but if you look at the projected roster above, fitting him in means someone has to go. One possibility is if CBs Darren Hall and/or Cornell Armstrong cross-train at safety, they could take the #4 safety role that is still TBD, opening up a roster spot for Harrison. Another possibility is NT Timmy Horne to the practice squad rather than the regular roster. After Anthony Rush was released, the undrafted rookie Horne was the only big plugger on the roster. But if Eddie Goldman actually plays (rather than suddenly retiring again), he takes the run-stuffing role. That leaves Horne without any real playing time, so he might be in real danger of not making the cut. One more WR seems to be the last open spot. The current in-house candidates are 2021 draft pick Frank Darby and promising 2022 undrafted rookie Jared Bernhardt. Darby didn't show much in camp last season (at least not when I was able to see him) but apparently made solid progress throughout the season. Bernhardt was a surprise highlight of preseason - but it has to be taken with a grain of salt as he mainly played in garbage time against garbage time DBs. He then got hurt after playing just 9 snaps and missed the rest of the season. That's a major setback as he's truly raw as a WR (played QB in college) and needed all the practice time he could get. Also noteworthy is that the coaching staff last year did NOT use him on special teams at all in his two game appearances. So neither of them has anywhere close to a lock on the #5 WR spot. A fourth rounder taken today would instantly become the leading contender for the TBD spot and would probably rank ahead of KhaDarel Hodge on the overall ladder.
Day three = no WR. So there's probably an opening for someone like Frank Darby or Jared Bernhardt to crack the roster as the #5 overall WR. They did take a DB to open day three but listed him at CB rather than S. He might cross-train, and Darren Hall and Cornell Armstrong might cross-train as well. Either way, they now have 10 projected DBs. The late picks and last year's fringe players are going to have to battle to make the roster, and the UDFAs that are about to sign will have an uphill battle. I'm wondering how many prospects sign elsewhere just because there's a better opening with other teams.
Why did they do that? Just curious. Maybe because they informed him that was going to be his target position on the field? Or just a plane ol' mistake?
I'm not sure (I don't follow Utah football), but I believe he was purely a corner in college, and he was projected as a corner - particularly at nickel. Now that I've had a little more time to review the Day Three picks... In the secondary, I would say that cornerbacks Darren Hall and especially Cornell Armstrong are definitely vulnerable. Dee Alford might be as well, but I think Armstrong and Hall are the two that will be most under the spotlight. The #4 safety from last year isn't vulnerable - he's already gone. (The team traded Dean Marlowe back to the Bills at the trade deadline, gaining a seventh rounder. That later turned out to be the pick they traded to New England for Jonnu Smith.) I'm not even sure there will be a tenth DB on the roster this season. The coaching staff might want more versatility for the front seven and use an extra roster spot up front that had previously been used on the back end. Taking Zach Harrison would seem to put Timmy Horne in jeopardy, but if Horne keeps showing solid progress they might opt to keep the extra big man available and drop from ten to nine DBs instead. If you count Dee Alford (former CFL corner who played well last year as a NFL rookie) as making the roster, there were four cornerbacks and three safeties projected as "safe" going into the draft. The other two cornerbacks who were on the roster at the end of last season were Hall and Armstrong. They're vulnerable, but ahead of the draft they were ahead of the other fringe prospects who will be competing for those final roster spots. The wild card is that the Falcons now have a new defensive coordinator, a new Assistant Head Coach / Defense, and a new secondary coach. The system as a whole is going to be different, and the new draft picks were chosen specifically because they have the traits desired for the new version of the scheme. The fourth round cornerback (Utah CB Clark Phillips) was Dane Brugler's #8 ranked CB and #53 overall prospect at The Athletic. He was the #11 corner and the 82nd overall prospect for CBS. He was taken at #95 in our mock. Atlanta got him at #113. One of the NFL-N panelists named him as a favorite Day Three pick. He's small (5-9), fast enough but not blazing speed (4.51), strong (18 bench press reps was most for any CB at the Combine), plays with great instincts and is dedicated to film study. Bearing in mind that he was selected specifically for Ryan Nielsen/Jerry Gray/Steve Jackson, I'm already putting him ahead of Hall and Armstrong on the CB ladder. So that makes 8 guys that I think are already just about locks to make the DB group. They also took Alabama safety DeMarcco Hellams in the seventh round. I wasn't so big on Hellams because I watched Jalen Hyatt torch him all game long. From what I'm reading about him, he's likely to be a strong safety (he played mostly free safety, some nickel and some strong safety at Alabama). This would be ideal, as his main weakness in college was trying to keep up with the better WRs. He's solid on run defense and can cover TEs or RBs. Brugler rated Hellams as the #20 overall safety in his rankings for The Athletic, with a 6th round grade. The interesting question will be if Darren Hall (former San Diego State corner) cross-trains at safety. He was regarded as a potential free safety during his own draft process. At his pro day, he ran the 40 in under 4.5, had a 38.5" vertical and put up 18 bench press reps. So he's certainly athletic enough for backup safety duty, and he now has two seasons of NFL experience behind him. If Hall does get preseason reps at safety, I'd have to consider him the most likely candidate for the #9 overall DB role, with Hellams and Armstrong hoping to beat out Timmy Horne or some other front seven player for a tenth DB spot. So for now, my projected roster after Day 3 of the draft has Phillips and Hall in, Armstrong and Hellams out. And on the offense, the seventh rounder Gwyn is likely headed for the practice squad.
Tre Flowers joining the mix at CB makes it even more difficult for the fringe guys to stick. Here's one potential scenario for the defense: new DC Ryan Nielsen installs a 4-man nickel mixed with some 3-4, using Zach Harrison and Ade Ogundeji at DE in the even front. Eddie Goldman actually does stick around rather than going back into retirement at the start of training camp. Goldman rotates with David Onyemata. Ta'Quon Graham isn't back to 100% but is active for preseason. He rotates with Grady Jarrett to open the season, while the rookie Harrison rotates with Calais Campbell and Ogundeji. With Steve Jackson as the secondary coach, Flowers fits in quickly and jumps ahead of Darren Hall for the top reserve outside CB role. DeMarcco Hellams has a strong preseason on special teams and at strong safety, and he and Hall take the last two DB spots thanks to their versatility and special teams play, though both are inactive on most game days. Clark Phillips pushes hard for the starting nickel role (and might take over by midseason), but Mike Hughes gets the nod to start the season. The starting lineup in the nickel in this scenario might be Campbell, Jarrett, Onyemata and Ogundeji up front, Andersen and Elliss at LB, Terrell, Okudah and Hughes as the trio of corners, and Bates and Grant as the safeties. The full 25-man defense: Interior DL: Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, Ta'Quon Graham, Eddie Goldman Edge/DE/OLB: Arnold Ebiketie, Bud Dupree, Lorenzo Carter, DeAngelo Malone, Zach Harrison, Ade Ogundeji Linebacker (interior/nickel): Troy Andersen, Kaden Elliss, Mykal Walker, Tae Davis Cornerback: A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, Tre Flowers, Clark Phillips, Darren Hall Safety: Jessie Bates, Richie Grant, Jaylinn Hawkins, DeMarcco Hellams Noteworthy cuts: Timmy Horne, Dee Alford, Joe Gaziano, Cornell Armstrong, Jalen Dalton, Nate Landman The difference compared to 2022 is staggering. 13 of the 25 (including 6 of 11 starters) were not playing for the team last year. Last year, Anthony Rush, Timmy Horne, Abdullah Anderson, Jalen Dalton, Jaleel Johnson and Matt Dickerson played a combined 1241 snaps with 17 combined starts for the defense. This year Horne is the only one of the group who has a significant chance at making the roster.
You have all the positions covered on defense if someone goes down... thats a huge plus. Flowers, I read, can also come up on the edge and cover a second tight-end, so he not only brings versatility, but veteran leadership. Im liking what Im seeing and the South is up for grabs in my opinion and I also think the Falcons are the team to beat at this moment.
