One of my oddball theories applying mathematical principles to football: you're better off if your five eligible receivers on the field are all average but legit targets (say the caliber of WR #2 / #3s) than if your WR group consists of Jerry Rice in his prime and a bunch of muppets behind him. Unfortunately for Atlanta, when Calvin Ridley stepped away from the team after the fifth game last year, Matt Ryan's receiving group was essentially Kyle Pitts And The Pips. In college, Russell Gage had caught just 26 passes in his 26 career games at LSU (he was drafted as a special teams ace and developmental project at WR) but stepped up admirably and developed into a legit WR#3 or even a WR#2. He led the WR unit with 66 receptions. Of course, with the team in cap hell, that meant he was out the door as soon as the season ended. He signed a 3-year, $30 million deal with Tampa. Congratulations to him on getting paid. Meanwhile, the team had learned in February about the league investigation involving Calvin Ridley. So... time to be a mock GM. Knowing that Ridley will be unavailable once again and that Gage is out the door as a free agency loss, what do you do to rebuild the WR group? Your remaining receivers are a rent-a-player who turned out to be a dud (Tajae Sharpe, who had just 25 receptions in 15 games - including 7 starts), two undrafted prospects who are now becoming RFAs, one of whom was mediocre last season (Olamide Zaccheaus, 31 receptions in 17 games with 8 starts) and one (Christian Blake) who was relegated to special teams duty in his third full season on the roster, a late round rookie who barely sniffed the field on offense (Frank Darby), and a pair of practice squad guys (Austin Trammell and Chad Hansen). Also... your most effective RB (Cordarelle Patterson, who led the team in receiving TDs as well as rushing TDs) is now a free agent, your #2 tight end (Hayden Hurst) is a free agent, and your #3 tight end (Lee Smith) announced his retirement. So how would you go about it? Here's what Terry Fontenot did: February = signed CFL tight end prospect Brayden Lenius. He's a long shot to make the roster, but he played WR at the University of Washington before converting to TE in the CFL. With his game experience in Canada, he should be on par with most practice squad TE prospects here. He's also 6-5, 230. March 7 = Calvin Ridley is suspended indefinitely by the league, potentially eligible for reinstatement after one year. He was on his fifth year option for 2022, and the league rolled that back to 2023. The silver lining is that the team gets that cap space for 2022. March 15 = offered a qualifying tender ($2.4 million) to RFA Olamide Zaccheaus. To me that seems a big high for a work-in-progress type prospect with 54 career receptions to show for 49 games played. But head coach Arthur Smith has made it clear that he really likes Zaccheaus and his potential, so, sure. March 16 = start of the new league year. Tajae Sharpe and Christian Blake (who was NOT offered a qualifying tender) are now off the roster. March 19 = Cordarelle Patterson tweets the news that he has agreed to terms to return to the Falcons. The team makes the official announcement three days later. It's a 2-year, $10.5 million deal. March 21 = after the speculation over Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan decides that yes, he would like to move on and take the opportunity with the Colts. Atlanta grants him his wish, surprisingly receiving only a third round draft pick in return. The other shocker is that they opted to bite the bullet and take on the full cap hit in 2022. The immediate reaction around the national media is that Atlanta is tanking the season. A few hours later, the news breaks that the Falcons have signed Marcus Mariota to a 2-year contract. The immediate reaction around the national media is that Atlanta is tanking the season. March 25 = Atlanta signs WR Khadarel Hodge to a 1-year, $1.1 million deal. The announcement sends local media into a frenzy trying to find out who Khadarel Hodge is. Turns out he's been around the league for four years, with the Rams, Browns, and he notched a career high 13 receptions last year with the Lions. So... not an earth-shaking signing, but 13 receptions is more than Christian Blake had for Atlanta last year. And Hodge is much cheaper than the cost to tender Blake. March 28 = Falcons sign WR Auden Tate to a 1-year, $1.1 million deal. This one might be a little more interesting. Everything I've read about Tate raves about him - his ability to make the contested catch, his ability to get extra yards after the catch, his blocking skills, etc, etc. But he was stuck behind a trio of terrific receivers in Cincinnati and couldn't get significant playing time. He wanted a change of scenery and a chance to compete for real playing time - and we're it. April 5 = Atlanta signs WR Damiere Byrd to a 1-year, $1.2 million deal. Atlanta will be his fifth organization in five years, so I won't put expectations too high. But he's a speedster (pro day = 4.28 running on grass) so it's up to Arthur Smith and Dave Ragone to make him into a weapon. A bit of irony: Byrd spent 2021 with the Bears and signed with Atlanta for 2022. Tajae Sharpe spent 2021 as a Falcon and signed with the Bears for 2022. Offhand, I'd say Atlanta got the better end of that swap. April 28 = Fontenot selects WR Drake London with the #8 overall pick. It's not just that the team has a new #1 WR that matters. The Falcons can now line up Kyle Pitts at TE, London, Tate and Byrd at WR, and Cordarelle Patterson at RB. The goal of having five competent pass receivers on the field has been achieved. This can be a SERIOUS passing attack - if the offensive line can step up and figure out this newfangled thing called "blocking". April 29 = Fontenot selects QB Desmond Ridder in the third round. It was their own pick rather than the one they got from Indianapolis, but that's okay. This is potentially Ryan's long term replacement. They received a third rounder for Ryan and used a third rounder in that same draft to get his replacement. That works. April 30 = Fontenot selects UGA TE John Fitzpatrick in the sixth round. He's not a lock to make the roster, but his chances are pretty good as his goal is to take over the blocking TE role that became open when Lee Smith retired. After the draft, Atlanta lands three WR prospects as UDFAs. An interesting one is Jared Bernhardt, a "Stump The Truck" choice and arguably the best college lacrosse player in the nation. He's an all-around athlete, but he'll be a long term project to become a NFL receiver. I'll be rooting for him to win a practice squad berth, though the competition will be fierce and the odds are against him. But Fontenot isn't done yet... May 13 = Atlanta trades for Raiders WR Bryan Edwards, swapping draft picks in next year's draft to get him. A noteworthy aspect is that Edwards and QB Marcus Mariota were teammates with the Raiders, so they already have timing and chemistry. Edwards is 6-3, 215. He's only 23 and entering just his third season in the league. He made strong improvements from his first to his second season and may be poised for a breakout in year three with the Falcons. May 16 = Falcons sign free agent WR Geronimo Allison. I'm not really sure what to make of this one, other than he'll be competing for a roster spot and playing time. He was coming on strong with the Packers in 2018 and got hurt. He wasn't as productive when he returned in 2019, and he ended up not resigning with Green Bay for 2020. He did sign with Detroit - but opted out of the 2020 season. Detroit had him on the practice squad for most of 2021. He did appear in three games last year but had no receptions. So his recent trajectory has been down rather than up, but we need competition and he's looking for a chance to compete. Atlanta released former practice squad receiver Chad Hansen to make room for Allison. Next up... former Titans WR Cameron Batson is reportedly going to sign with the Falcons. I haven't heard potential contract details yet. (He hasn't signed but has agreed to terms.) The other two contenders are 2021 sixth round pick Frank Darby and returning practice squad hand Austin Trammell, who got called up to the roster for two games as a reserve late in the 2021 season. My way-too-early projection, barring injuries: London, Tate and Edwards make the roster as the tall trees on the outsides, with Byrd and Zaccheaus taking their snaps from the slot. All five are likely to be active on game days, as the non-starters will still be core special teams players. Allison and Darby will be competing to make the roster as a sixth receiver - and I like the odds of Atlanta keeping six this year. If they do keep six, give the edge to Allison with Darby and Trammell on the practice squad. Jared Bernhardt is a long shot, but if he shows progress throughout camp and preseason he might stick as a third practice squad hand. It's a strange feeling, going from a completely bare cupboard just three months ago to a situation where someone who might have even started late last season won't be making the roster. But it's nice to know that this is a very real WR group, with more depth than the team has had since 2016. The main downside: other than the new draft pick London, all of the WRs that I project to make the roster are only on one year deals. Fontenot will have his work cut out for him reassembling the WR group once again next year.
Follow-up... head coach Arthur Smith was asked by one of the team's own beat writers about overloading at the WR and TE positions. He explained that since this part of the offseason is non-contact, it's better for evaluating the skill players than it is the linemen, as the linemen aren't allowed to block or tackle anyone. So the team loaded up on guys who can catch passes for OTAs and will make decisions on some of those players after minicamp. Minicamp is now over, and the first one has been released: former practice squad hand Austin Trammell. The team also released RB Jeremy McNichols, who was signed just a few weeks ago. I didn't think Trammell had any chance of making the regular roster, but I do consider it interesting that longer shots such as undrafted rookies Tyshaun James and Stanley Berryhill are still here (at least for now) while Trammell is gone. The team released Chad Hansen in May, so both of last year's practice squad WRs are gone now. Also noteworthy: Arthur Smith named Khadarel Hodge along with Damiere Byrd as players who stood out in the OTA sessions.
