By far, the top priority for the Falcons right now is a new defensive coordinator. So the personnel decisions on defense will be a bit up in the air for a while, but that's okay as we're still nearly two months away from free agency and three months from the draft anyway. Putting myself in Fontenot's place as mock GM, here's how I assess the offense and how I would approach free agency and draft needs: QB: At least for these early stages, I'm planning on Desmond Ridder as my starter. Fun fact: on third down pass attempts, Ridder had a QB rating of 112.9. Lamar Jackson had a recent tweet suggesting his contract talks are not going well. SI might be right about Baltimore potentially trading him. I'd have no problem at all making a long term deal for him fit the cap. The issue is what the Ravens would want in return for the trade. They're probably looking for a motherlode along the lines of three first rounders or two firsts, two seconds and then extras. Even though he's a PERFECT system fit for Arthur Smith, I'm not willing to pay that steep of a price. So I'll sit back and watch as either some other team throws away their future drafts the way Denver and Cleveland did or his situation turns into a mess like the Baker Mayfield saga last year. If we get to May or June and the Ravens are still eating a franchise tag's worth of cap space, then it's time to talk trade - like maybe a 2024 second and fifth rounder. I would reach out to Marcus Mariota immediately and let him know that while I do plan on releasing him from his current contract (definitely before his roster bonus comes due), I would like to re-sign him to a new contract as a backup. If he prefers to try to land a starter's salary elsewhere, sure, I'll release him immediately so he can get a head start on testing the market. I'd even record a video message for his agent saying how the Falcons appreciate Mariota's leadership, how valuable he was to the team, etc, etc, so that there's no doubt that I did my part to help advance his career. I'd also look at other potential backup free agents. There are several that I like that might become available. Two that I've mentioned before are David Blough (Cardinals) and P.J. Walker (Panthers). If Mariota went elsewhere, I'd probably take a stab at signing both of them if they hit the open market. RB: not an area of need, though I'd always be happy to add a cheap free agent for competition, particularly one with blocking and receiving skills. But the group is already pretty good. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Avery Williams are all under contract for next season, as is Caleb Huntley, who is recovering from an Achilles injury and might not be ready to return at the start of the season. The team also resigned practice squad prospect B.J. Baylor, who intrigues me as a developmental project. I'm looking forward to seeing him in camp next summer. FB: Atlanta fullback Keith Smith is a free agent this offseason. He has been a solid contributor, but I think it's time to move on and go with tight ends in the hybrid fullback role. Practice squad FB Clint Ratkovich would be the only one I'd plan to keep, and he'd convert to a TE/FB hybrid. WR: the good news here is that Drake London has already established chemistry and timing with Ridder. I also anticipate the team using RBs Cordarrelle Patterson (originally a WR) and Avery Williams (originally a DB, 4.43 speed and a slot receiver's build) more as WRs in 2023 than in 2022, making the WR position much less of a need entering 2023 than it was one year ago. The bad news is that Atlanta only averaged 25 total pass attempts per game in 2022. That's going to make it really hard to attract free agent wideouts - or to retain the ones I have. I'd talk with the agents for all three of Olamide Zaccheaus, KhaDarel Hodge and Damiere Byrd about bringing them back, but I have a feeling at least two of the three would end up seeking greener pastures in more pass-happy offenses. Fortunately, there are several good developmental prospects in the pipeline. I think the team might have been thinking ahead about the free agency situation, as they were carrying as many as four WRs on the practice squad for a while. Jared Bernhardt was a star of preseason (and made the roster) but got hurt and spent the year on IR. Josh Ali fell off the draft boards as he was recovering from December knee surgery. He landed on Atlanta's practice squad and was called up at the end of the year. Frank Darby (late 2021 draft pick, deep threat) and speedster Ra'Shaun Henry are also in the mix, and Emeka Emezie (practice squad IR, not yet resigned) might rejoin them once he's medically cleared. I'd put all of them ahead of where Zaccheaus was heading into the 2021 season. I'd also plan on adding a WR somewhere in the draft, but it's not a top need - especially if any of the free agents actually do return. TE: resign Parker Hesse and MyCole Pruitt immediately. Both should be cheap on the cap and are far more valuable for Atlanta than they would be for other organizations. Hesse is would take over the fullback role as well as TE#2 duties. Pruitt has been the eternal prospect (he'll be 31 this season) but has already developed great timing and chemistry with Desmond Ridder. Obviously, the star of the group will be Kyle Pitts, who was sorely missed down the stretch. Late draft pick John FitzPatrick spent his rookie season on IR but will be back for another try in camp. He can contribute in the passing game but was drafted for his blocking skills. Practice squad prospect John Raine is another hybrid TE/FB type, and backup quarterback Feleipe Franks converted to TE this season, showing potential as a receiver. If Hesse and Pruitt return, this group is loaded. If everyone stayed healthy, I'd project Pitts, Hesse, Pruitt and FitzPatrick for the roster and Raine and Franks opening the year on the practice squad. The odd man out would be Anthony Firkser, who came aboard as a free agent last year as the likely #2 but ended up not making much of an impact. OL: assuming no deal for Lamar Jackson emerges, this is the one area on offense where I would anticipate significant free agent money this offseason. That suits me fine, as I'm quite happy to spend the money in the trenches. Right tackle Kaleb McGary came on strong this season after three subpar years. I'm not willing to break the bank for a one-year wonder in a contract year. I want to keep him and will make a good/solid offer, but I'll guess that some other team will throw silly money at him and that he'll take it. Left guard Elijah Wilkinson is also a free agent. He was a journeyman who came in on a one year "prove it" contract, and he proved it. I'd sign him to a real contract. Again, not exorbitant, as that's the kind of thing that got Atlanta into cap hell in the first place, but a strong, solid offer. I suspect he'd return. Right guard Chris Lindstrom stands to play 2023 on his fifth year option. I'd go ahead and extend him now and get him locked in for a long time to come. A priority for me would be to find a backup left tackle / swing tackle. Wilkinson might be the answer, sliding from left guard to left tackle with someone else coming in at guard, but I'd still want another option in the pipeline. I'd see who could be had via trade for a late round draft pick, but I'd probably end up taking a tackle in Day Two of the draft. I'd be open to resigning Germain Ifedi, Colby Gossett and Chuma Edoga for another year. The developmental pipeline is solid with rising prospects including Ryan Neuzil, Justin Shaffer and Tyler Vrabel. Overall... potential draft needs at OT and WR - but nothing requiring a first or second round pick. That's a Good Thing considering I'm a firm believer in the BPA approach. Free agent money needed for Lindstrom, Wilkinson and probably McGary. Cheaper signings for Hesse, Pruitt, probably Mariota and one other backup QB, possibly Ifedi, Gossett, Edoga and one or more of the WRs. Note that releasing and resigning Mariota to a backup-level deal would create more cap space - roughly enough to cover signing Hesse, Pruitt, Gossett and the other backup QB. That still leaves plenty of cap available for the defense. Now I just need to know who the defensive coordinator will be so that I can start working with him on loading up for his preferred schemes.
Jim Haslett, Jerry Gray, Brian Flores, Ryan Nielsen and Al Holcomb have been considered and i bet the list will continue growing. No rush; says Arthur Smith.
While I agree Lamar Jackson will be too steep of a draft capital expense I also see the Falcons as a team that would do it.
Sorry, Torgo... this started as an exercise on the Offensive side of things, but I derailed it to the other side of the ball, my apologies. Former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio had a long run as a defensive coordinator before his time in Denver and he’s been a popular candidate for teams looking for a coordinator this offseason. Ian Rapoport of NFL Media reports that Fangio is interviewing with the Falcons on Wednesday. The Falcons have an opening at the top of their defensive staff after Dean Pees’ retirement earlier this year. Fangio also interviewed with the Panthers this month. The Panthers are still looking for a head coach and have a meeting set with Sean Payton this week. Reports have indicated that Fangio would likely join Payton’s staff as a defensive coordinator, but the Falcons interview suggests that’s not a sure thing. Part of the reason for that may be that Payton could wind up in Denver and a return to the team that fired him last year may not be in the cards for Fangio. PFT
Fangio would be a great choice. So would Flores. More than anything, I'm just happy that Smith is taking his time and looking for the best coach. If he did it the way Mike Smith handled replacing his coordinators in 2012, Atlanta would have already hired Jerry Gray just because that's the guy Smith already knows. We might also be in need of a new QB coach soon. My man Charles London is interviewing for the OC posts in Washington and Tennessee.
Kyle Hinton (OG) to the Atlanta Falcons. A source said that Hinton, a seventh-round Vikings pick in 2020 who spent the past three years on the practice squad, was offered a contract by Minnesota but that Falcons gave him a $100,000 signing bonus, which was too good to pass up on a futures deal. Hinton got into his first two NFL regular-season games in 2022, playing the entire second half at left guard in the regular-season finale at Chicago.
FALCONS FACT... The Falcons will be picking eighth in the upcoming draft and have five of the first 115 overall selections. They will have an additional $70 million in usable cap space to make veteran moves to bolster the depth of the roster -- the second highest amount in the NFL.
Personally, I think they have a good chance at battling for the top spot in the NFC South, but they really need to shore-up defensively (here I go again on the defense). The Falcons lead that Division in scoring, but gave up the most points among the Division also. But, your right, Gid... they should be good. I think the Buccos are going to slip down a notch, Panthers and Saints up a tick, but no clear-cut runaways, which would bode well for any of the 4 teams if they get out of the gate quickly and win their Divisional games.
The Buccaneers depend on Brady. If he comes back they will be to there at the end of the season fighting for the title. If he doesn’t then they will be towards the bottom of the standings.
Indeed... I think this offseason is really all about the defense, and I do expect them to have a good overall approach and for the most part nail it. At the time of free agency last year (the Bears passed them in midseason), they had the most dead money not just in the NFL but in NFL history and had lost their franchise QB, their leading tackler, their sack leader and their top two wide receivers, while their second leading tackler was destined to become a cap casualty. With no budget whatsoever, Terry Fontenot assembled a roster that was competitive almost every week and came within one win of taking the division title. The only thing I'd question of him from last season was that after losing so many defensive linemen before the season (Vincent Taylor and Marlon Davidson plus two prospects to injury, Eddie Goldman to retirement), he didn't add any other "real" linemen to fill the voids. The only players he added were a pair of career practice squad projects, forcing Dean Pees to make do with a handful of prospects. But I'd say he did as well as he could have at WR, TE, RB and on the offensive line, and he started building solid depth at LB, edge and in the secondary. He has proven that he knows what he's doing. I'll do the defensive assessment writeup later. Mainly I'm dealing with an absurd work crunch, so I started with the offense hoping that the team might have news in the defensive coordinator search to help me pin down the defensive schemes before I write it.
This is my favorite type of developmental signing - a long term project due to fundamentals/technique, but a LOT of upside to make it all worthwhile. Hinton has good size, good strength, and elite athleticism. Getting into the season finale suggests he's making progress on his technical issues. That entire game was basically garbage time, but he was the project who got to play the second half rather than someone else. So he's a legit prospect who is at least close to being ready for the roster. For $100k... nice steal by Terry Fontenot. I'm kinda surprised Minnesota didn't match.
