I'm starting to get the feeling that new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen is going to emphasize upgrading the defensive line. Maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part as that's what I have viewed as the team's top need going back to preseason. But that's also Nielsen's background, so it seems like a no-brainer that he'd look at the current group and want to overhaul it in a big way. The other big question with the new system is whether they'll use more man coverage or zone coverage in the back seven. For that matter, we don't even know if Nielsen and new assistant head coach Jerry Gray will want to go with cover two, cover three, quarters, or the traditional single high safety. But looking over the defensive roster as the mock GM, here's what I see: Defensive line: Grady Jarrett is a beast. Ta'Quon Graham had a strong second season. After that, yikes... Timmy Horne put in a valiant effort as an undrafted rookie, but I'd want an upgrade at nose / 1-tech and let Horne be the backup as he continues to develop. Jalen Dalton has potential, but only if he can actually stay healthy for a season. He missed 2020 on IR. He missed 2021 on IR. He missed half of 2022 on IR, finally making his NFL debut in midseason. I'm not counting on him even making it to training camp. Abdullah Anderson is a free agent. I'd resign him as a backup and let him compete for a roster spot under the new defensive coaching staff, but I'm looking for major upgrades. He's not it. I see the interior weakness as being the main issue with the pass rush. EDGE will be listed as a top need in all the draft previews, but the team is already loaded with good up-and-coming prospects from the last two drafts. I think I'd get more bang for the buck from signing another DT with pass rush skills than drafting another edge rusher. But I'm big on the best player available approach - if the right edge guy is there at #8 (could easily happen), bring him on. In the meantime, Ade Ogundeji stepped up his run defense in his second season. The rookies Arnold Ebiketie and DeAngelo Malone showed solid progress. In a 4-3 front, Malone would play weak side OLB while Ogundeji moved up to DE and Ebiketie likely came in as a pass rush specialist in the nickel package. The biggest of the early decisions would be whether to resign Lorenzo Carter. I'd say absolutely bring him back, but I need to talk scheme with the new coaching staff first to get a feel for system fit. The 3-4 interior linebacker group became one of the strengths of Atlanta's defense last season. Resigning Rashaan Evans would be a priority. With Evans, Troy Andersen and Mykal Walker, Atlanta has a solid group for a 4-3 and for nickel packages. With the back end, scheme becomes a huge question. Free agent corner Isaiah Oliver came to life as the nickel corner under Dean Pees, but he was previously less successful in Dan Quinn's scheme. So what do Nielsen and new assistant head coach Jerry Gray plan to play in the secondary? The back end might be a new area of need. At safety, youngsters Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins are set to return as starters. But if new assistant head coach Jerry Gray wants a base cover two, are they the right guys? A.J. Terrell enters his fourth season and is clearly one of the top corners in the league. Time to start talking long term extension. Injured corner Casey Hayward is under contract for one more year and should be suitable to start regardless of scheme. Darren Hall enters his third year. He thrived as a backup but struggled when forced into a starting role. Dee Alford did well as a rookie. I'd need to spend a lot of time with Gray, Nielsen, Arthur Smith and the pro scouts to go over the intended coverage schemes and the needs at the various positions. Otherwise I'm not sure if any of Atlanta's own free agents - including Oliver - would be system fits for Nielsen and Gray. I'd plan on signing at least one free agent corner and one veteran free agent safety for depth and then picking up at least one DB at some point in the draft. So... top priorities for free agency are adding a pass rushing DT and a starting caliber run-stuffer, resigning LB Rashaan Evans, and extending A.J. Terrell. Follow that with depth for the secondary and quite likely resigning Carter and Oliver. The team has plenty of cap space to make that happen. If I can find and succeed in signing the right guys up front, that should leave me free to go pure best player available for the draft.
The Atlanta Falcons will enter the 2023 offseason with over $56 million in salary cap space... thats the second most in the NFL, so I think they will address/land a couple FA's out there. Probably a good move to get an Edge Rusher to compliment Jarrett on the line. Patterson is trying to recruit, Daron Payne from Washington and there really is some decent FA DL's out there.
I take Nielsen's answer on 4-3 vs 3-4 as a deflection, though he did point out one key thing that I've mentioned in a few posts already: the overwhelming majority of defensive snaps are in nickel / dime. So a better question is 3-3-5 nickel or 4-2-5? At times Dean Pees had played 3-3-5 earlier in the season, but after Ta'Quon Graham got hurt (and Grady Jarrett was the only solid interior lineman remaining) that went out the window in favor of a traditional 4-2-5 (counting the edge rushers as DEs, so you're actually taking a lineman off the field rather than adding one). I also think the media folks asking 4-3 vs 3-4 should be asking something slightly different: single gap or two gap assignments? I've always felt that's the distinguishing mark of a defensive front. Case in point: Wade Philips played his 3-4 in Dallas with a 290-pound nose tackle. That would be absurd in a traditional two gap 3-4, but his scheme is single gap. The three linemen line up on the gap rather than the man, and at the snap they immediately try to penetrate the line. That's far, far different than having Jabba The Nose Tackle line up directly on the center, read the play and react to either side to control both A gaps. Terrell Suggs did a fantastic job explaining the run defense concept of single gap 3-4 on one of the NFL-N shows once upon a time. I wish I had the video clip of it - it was the best quick intro to the scheme I had ever seen. He presented it in its most simple form - seven guys each having responsibility for one of seven running lanes. The NT lines up on the A gap on the strong side (between the center and guard on the side that has the tight end). One inside linebacker covers the A gap on the other side of the center. And if you actually draw it up (Suggs was showing it on a large whiteboard), you simply alternate gaps between the linebackers and linemen. OLB has outside contain on the weak side, then DE on the gap between tackle and guard, then ILB, then NT, then ILB between the guard and tackle on the strong side, DE between tackle and TE, and OLB with outside contain. With that in mind, Nielsen's non-answer might actually be a legit answer * if * he's planning to play single gap assignments. The biggest difference between that system that Suggs played in Baltimore and the 4-3 schemes that Jim Mora ran with Ed Donatell as DC or that Mike Smith ran with Brian VanGorder is that if the weak side edge guy puts his hand on the ground, it's a 4-3. If the same guy lines up in the same place but stays upright, most people label it a 3-4. And back when Dan Quinn was Pete Carroll's DC in Seattle, the "4-3 Under" system that he ran was closer to most 3-4 systems than other 4-3's. Based on the play call, one or two of the linemen had two-gap responsibilities. Personally, I appreciate the concept of gaining a numbers edge with a two-gap assignment, but as a whole I prefer single gap systems. If a DT attacking a gap immediately at the snap can force a double team, presto - you gain the same advantage.
Just a stat I found today on the edge rushers... second round pick Arnold Ebiketie may be getting a bad rap from media pushing the idea that the team HAS to go edge at #8. Ebiketie only had 2.5 sacks last season. But... he was third among all rookies last season in QB pressures. So he didn't get the glory but he did impact the play. I'll take it from a rookie playing 46% of defensive snaps.
