In my league we have to start 2 RBs . I'm thinking 2 of my first three picks should be RB. They go quick and there are not a lot of quality #1 guys. Thoughts?
It is always easier to find serviceable WRs late. Remember you get 2 or 3 on the field all game while only 1 and maybe 2 RBs see any significant action. There is the zero RB strategy which is not to take any early and go for underrated value late but be careful because the new trend seems to be for many RBs to go sooner than later.
A guy in my league had the #1 pick and took Antonio Brown. By the time his second and third picks came around there was not a RB worth that pick. He ended up with Frank Gore and Tevin Coleman as his starting RBs.
I've been on both sides of the fence, and they both have statistical merit. The problem is, it depends on your draft, and the specific results of the season. Every situation is dynamic. Two years ago, I drafted Jamaal Charles early, followed a little later by Dez Bryant. Obviously, that did not go well for me. I still finished third. Last year, I drafted Julio Jones and another receiver early... More injuries compounding, I still took third. There isn't a right answer. Statistically, you're likely to score more points with WR's. You're also more likely to have consistent high point totals if you pick the right RB's. But injuries can ruin you, picking the wrong RB or WR high can ruin you... There's not an answer. Statistically, both strategies have merit. Base your strategy off of your draft position, the dynamics of the draft itself, and your intuition on how you think things are going to play out. Someone might get lucky and draft the top 2 RB's all year long with their first two picks. Someone might get unlucky and lose both of their star picks in week one. I'm not playing fantasy football anymore, for a number of reasons, but one of the is that, no matter how hard you may work at it, you just finish in third, and the guy in first won off of pure luck. And that's no fun. Edit: to answer your specific question, you're going to have better luck with WR's late. There are more of them on the field at any one time, and there are more points to go around between them. But the point total is not what's important - it's the point spread between player A and player B. Usually, by late in the draft, both RB's and WR's in that regard are depleted. You can, however, find notable QB, TE, and DST spreads in that range, alongside any WR or RB hunches that turn into diamonds. For example, the QB I drafted in round 12 scored as much as the QB someone else drafted in round 3. This wasn't due to luck or injury - in fact, both players followed my personal statistical projections (based on history, team changes from the prior year, and my personal evaluation). Great DST's can usually be had late, as well. The waiver wire in the first few weeks of the season is just as, if not more important than the draft. If your league is currently using the "losers get first claim" method... change it. Or leave.
In a standard league you got to try to get your RB early, just isn't that many that are valuable in standard scoring and yes lots better value on WRs later in the draft then RBs. PPR expands the pool of RBs that can be valuable by a lot, so you can consider going WR early and still be OK at RB. Personally I like just nailing down a RB early in either format.
A top six running back is money. Wait on the WR's. You can pick up a Kareem Hunt or Dalvin Cook later. I kinda like Hyde as a late pick. If you have to pass on the first 6 , grab your favorite receiver and then go RB.
If im selecting at the bottom of round one and the possibility of drafting two stud WRs exists I may go that route, depending on the size of the league and the type of scoring. No matter what direction you go early, the middle rounds tend to be where drafts are won and lost.
It's very hard to pass on double WR at the end of the 1st, especially if you don't like the RBs there yet. That can get you in trouble though. Tim if I recall it steered you in the Zero RB strategy and going for potential at RB in the Yeary League because the value at RB just wasn't matching up with the spot. RBs make it tough. This is the weirdest year yet for RBs IMO.
RBs have a certain stigma this year that they have not had in several, but value is still value regardless of position. If you take a back early with a value that is less than an available receiver out of fear of not getting one later it can hamstring your whole roster.
The one thing I have noticed is that it has caused RBs that aren't in a committee scare to go much earlier than they normally would. Guys like Abdullah, Ingram, Montgomery, and Perkins the only ones lasting until the late 4th round at least. Now they all have issues as well but they aren't getting as much of a bump due to counter effects keeping them down. It kinda offset on most of them. Many RB are going in the 3rd-4th that normally wouldn't go. the scarcity in the position and the stigma of the position is causing the guys people like to go even earlier so they don't get the ones they hate. The good news is that because people are going RB so early, if you don't go multiple RB in the first 4 rounds you can likely pick up some solid scraps while many others are finding WRs and such you already have accounted for.
Which is why they didn't rise any higher. If Abdullah wasn't coming off injury and Ingram wasn't with AP they would go a round higher to teams worried they wouldn't get a RB later. Montgomery and Perkins have inexperience issues. Now Perkins is more of a late 6th-8th round guy but it'd likely be the case in a normal year too. It just goes to show that backs people don't feel scared about are going earlier. People seem to be worried more about alternatives more than value.
rbs as early as you can and then a second one ! i split them going 1st and 2nd rd and it was a mistake. by the time i got to the 3rd rd, all rbs worth a damn were gone. i went with a QB and then a scrub RB in rd 4. plenty of wrs out there.
in my keeper league, i just realize i can keep abdullah in the 9th rd and b. powell from the jets in the 14th rd. not great players, but that's great value there in those rounds. i can keep tyrell williams -wr-sd in the 10th rd as well.
