There are too many aspects of Atlanta’s draft to cover in a single post. So I want to start with just one… how badly did GM Terry Fontenot hurt Atlanta’s future by trading next year’s first and fifth round picks? Fontenot’s own explanation of the Pearce trade didn’t just admit he was sacrificing a big part of next year’s draft - he actually BRAGGED about it. Instead of saying the team moved up from the second into the first and gave up next year’s first rounder to do it, he said he traded from next year’s first round pick into this year’s first round, taking the player a year early. The cost was to drop from the second round to the bottom of the third and also give up a seventh. Okay, I’ll buy that… but it still means he gave up a chunk of next year’s draft firepower. It’s also noteworthy that he had to go that route (particularly when trading up to take Xavier Watts) because the team was already short on picks this year. (He had given up this year’s third rounder in last year’s trade for Matthew Judon and forfeited this year’s fifth rounder by messing up on the free agency rules. He also dropped this year’s sixth rounder down to the seventh back in 2023 in the trade for Van Jefferson. Ironically, that seventh rounder ended up being the throw-in pick that he sent right back to the Rams in the James Pearce trade.) So… question one = the team drafted only five players this year. Is that a problem? Are they hurting the pipeline of prospects? For this year, I’ll say absolutely not. Atlanta’s roster was already so overloaded with younger, rising players heading into the draft that any more late round prospects would either not make the roster or would force out other, equally promising prospects. With that in mind, they truly were better off going for quality over quantity and consolidating picks to take just a few players more likely to step into key roles quickly. What makes this year unusual in that regard is that the team red-shirted the entire rookie class in 2024 and had only pressed two of the 2023 draft picks (RB Bijan Robinson and LG Matthew Bergeron) into starting roles. The result is that they still have 10 non-starters from those two classes who should be ready to compete for larger roles this year. Some key names among them are defensive tackles Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus, edge rusher Bralen Trice, defensive lineman Zach Harrison and interior offensive lineman Jovaughn Gwyn. The team also already had by my count ten other prospects acquired outside of the draft process who have very real chances of making the regular roster, such as NT LaCale London (the only defensive lineman on the roster over 315 pounds), CB Dee Alford (RFA who wasn’t tendered but did get resigned), last year's preseason standouts WR Chris Blair and CB Natrone Brooks, depth RB Carlos Washington and several offensive linemen. So what's the harm in drafting more guys? Well, last year the team tried to stash sixth round DT Zion Logue, former sixth round blocking TE John FitzPatrick, and free agent OT prospect Andrew Stueber on the practice squad. All three were lost by week six of the regular season. They could easily have lost a few more, but they quickly started promoting their other prospects to the regular roster to replace injured players. The bottom line is that the pipeline was intact and strong for this year, even before the outstanding undrafted rookie haul - which included CB Cobee Bryant, WR Nick Nash, OL Joshua Gray, TE Joshua Simon and DB Malik Verdon. All of these players carried draft-worthy grades in various prospect rankings, giving Atlanta the equivalent of an extra "day three" of the draft. But, question two = okay, so the pipeline is loaded now. But what about NEXT year? The team is once again looking at only five draft picks, as they aren’t projected to receive any comp picks. And... no first rounder. That's HUGE, right? At the moment, yes, that’s an issue. The interesting twist is that on the plus side, the cap situation should be much, much better next offseason. And that's the other item that forced Fontenot's hand on making the big trade. Free agency was kind of a dud this year because of cap issues. Obviously the main factor is the Kirk Cousins contract. The key for 2026 is that after this year the team can afford to unload Cousins. Some media outlets were projecting that Atlanta would release him outright in February. But that was utter nonsense because his 2025 salary is fully guaranteed, meaning that releasing him would have done far more harm than good. It would have accelerated 25 million of prorated cap from his signing bonus, and the team would still be on the hook for his salary - and would be short a quarterback. But after this season, releasing him does become a possibility if necessary. And trading him is feasible even now. The significance of that goes beyond just having the ability to plug holes in free agency. And this is something that should be incredibly obvious but that none of the pundits seem to have picked up in their draft grade articles. Ready for it? If the Falcons trade Cousins, they’ll get draft pick(s) in return. Seriously, not one of the major media writers out there seems to be aware of this concept. A first rounder might be wishful thinking, but a package including a second rounder seems plausible. And they do have other candidates for potential trade before the deadline, but if they're in the hunt for the postseason, they might not be so willing to part with guys like Kyle Pitts or Kaleb McGary. So let's focus solely on the idea of trading Cousins and rolling with Easton Stick as the backup QB. Hypothetical situation: suppose the team trades Cousins for a second and fifth round pick in next year’s draft. Atlanta would still be missing a first round pick but would have two second rounders and a pick in each remaining round. Trading from the second into the back end of the first round isn’t all that difficult when you actually have a full complement of picks. The trades that landed McGary (2019), Sam Baker (2008), and Michael Jenkins (2004) come to mind. The Baker trade might be the most interesting for a scenario where Atlanta has two second round picks. In that one, the Falcons sent two second round and one fourth round pick to Washington, receiving a first, third and fifth rounder in return. Considering Fontenot's habit of redshirting players taken after the first round, dropping down two other picks would be a minimal price to pay to get a targeted first rounder. I'd be fine with it. The Jenkins trade in 2004 had the Falcons move from the second into the first, giving up a fourth rounder and dropping from the top to the bottom of the third round. The McGary trade also had the Falcons moving from the second into the back end of the first, giving up a third but getting back a sixth round pick. So… the way Fontenot painted himself into a corner with the cap and draft picks isn’t my style, but I do see that there might not end up being significant long term damage resulting from it. Or to put it another way, he certainly mortgaged the future, but he might not have sacrificed it. In the end it comes down to whether the five guys he drafted were the right five guys. But that's true even without the trades. And that's another discussion for another time...
