Finally, with the pesky 2013-14 season finished, the Sabres' season has officially begun. The team has to work on a few things: - No significant UFA's and a handful of RFA's to get locked up. Tyler Ennis is this off-season's must-sign. Wow, writing that is sad commentary on the state of the roster. - The #2 overall draft pick. Since Ekblad is expected to go #1 to whichever team goes first, (I think it's roughly 50:50 that it will be Florida), the Sabres are free to pick one of the Sams. I think that Reinhart is most likely to be a team-changer and want him, but I'd be happy with Bennett. Especially if Reinhart is gone, there's a real chance that Buffalo could drop down to the #4 to #8 spot. DalColle or Perlini would be great additions and there's little chance that Buffalo could trade back into the first for them. - Three second round picks (#31, 39, & 49) will mean that Buffalo will be active in mid-to-late first round trade talks. Tuch is a name that I hear a lot. - I would love it if Buffalo were to draft Demko Thatcher, but I would rather they let him fall to them in the second* - probably at #31. * I doubt that he will make it past the first round, but there other goalies that have great value in the late second or third round. - There's a twist with this draft since the compliance buy-out option is going away soon. Since team's are limited to two of these, and Buffalo has both remaining**, it is speculated that a team looking for salary relief could trade a bloated contract and a first to Buffalo for a second rounder. I am not certain how the NHL would view such a transaction - especially if Buffalo were to exercise the compliance buy-out on their new veteran. - The team needs to add approximately $20MM just to get to the cap floor. Ville Leino will not be on the roster next year, and ** they are already negotiating a buy-out. It remains to be seen which type they choose. With a bulging pipeline, (I hope firehalo is reading), it may not be too many years before the team will need cap space and I would not like to see much tied up in dead contracts. On the other hand, the team has to find some way to get to the floor, and it's going to be hard to convince UFA's to come to Buffalo. - On July 1 Buffalo has to be active in the FA frenzy; they have to try for the cap. Good luck finding a player that could really help the team become a winner. However, they may have a shot at players that have been there before, (hockey players love Buffalo once they've been there): Ott and even Moulson are possibilities. There are a few native sons that may be lured home: Callahan, Stempniak, and Orpik are names that come to mind. The draft in a few weeks will probably be as much excitement as Sabres fans will have for a long time. I expect Buffalo will come away with two firsts and probably about six prospects that have real potential. Virtually no team will be willing to trade 2015 firsts, and fortunately Buffalo already has three, (+NYI & St. Louis). Sabres fans will be rooting as hard for the NYI to fail as they do for Buffalo, (no, we won't be rooting for the Sabres to win - we would prefer to have the #1 pick. Some prayers will be sent for the wheels to fall off the Blues, too.)
Tuch and Demko, I like your thinking Dan. Throw in Sonny Milano and we'll make it a real party. I could see Demko sliding to the early 2nd round. Expecting both Tuch and Milano to be mid 1sts but who really knows? Patience will be key for anyone drafting Demko, he's very raw but has many things you look for in a goalie, notably size and work ethic. imho its atleast 2 more years at BC for Demko before apprenticing in the AHL. I could see Chicago taking a stab at him late in the 1st. Their goalie system is weak and Demko plays a very Crawford-like style. If he progresses he could give them options down the road. Tuch is supposed to be a man out there. Very mature physically and knows how to use his size to his advantage. Milano is in the Patrick Kane mold. Tiny wizard. no long term FA deals and your fine. right? rare when traded players come back to where they were traded from immediately. Im a Moulson fan myself, would like him in the spoked- B. those make sense for Buffalo. Callahan would be costly but a good fit in Buffalo. But is he willing to go through the rebuild to play at home? the only way the hockey Gods will grant you Islander losses vs the Bruins next season is if you use the actual team mascot name on game days.
Absolutely correct, Matty! I even thought about adding this but my screed had gone on long enough. The Sabres can - in fact probably must - take on bad contracts. They will probably have to overpay any FA willing to endure a couple of seasons with no chance at winning. If the term for these players are three years or less then there is no problem. If they go much longer than that then they will only be putting the team in a bind down the road. I would much prefer that they use a compliance buy-out on Leino; getting to the floor will be the key. Ott really fits into Buffalo's culture, and he's smart enough to know the team did not want to trade him. He is the most likely player to return. Moulson has semi-local connections, (his sister played college in Buffalo; he played in Ithaca; he hails from S. Ont.), he worked his way up to being considered an elite player. Money should be a very important factor for him, and he is the one exception where I would be o.k. to go long term. I think that for him, the respect shown by the organization will be an important factor. Of course if he does go to the hockey team from Boston then I will laud your addition of another Cornellian. Callahan wants a long term deal, and the market is going to have to be pretty dry for him to accept a shorter term and the losing to sign. He's a long shot. Especially if UFA Tallinder moves on - or if Buffalo chooses to let him - then Orpik may be a nice intermediate solution. I know that he really wanted to sign a few years ago but Regier rebuffed him. (That's one of the team management decisions that IMO got him canned.) Stempniak is old enough that he won't get a long term contract and I think he'd fit in nicely. I am not saying that Buffalo will ignore this type of player, but they once had what seems like half the roster composed of small players. Murray states they want size, so I would be surprised to see a trade up for Milano.
damn! when the Islanders win an ugly sleepy matinee that no one is watching I will remember this. the offer will still be on the table when the puck drops, lol.
I like the pick. With three in the second, (if not used to move back into the first), Buffalo is finally starting to look like a rebuilding team. For the past year and a half they've been on tear down mode.
Looks like the Ehrhoff contract just blew up on the Sabres. They started buyout procedures. He's on waivers, should be interesting to see if he opts out or goes through the whole process. Is management scared about recapture in 19' 20' and 21' or did Ehrhoff tell them to buy him out. What a waste if true. I'm not sure what the MNC with NTC limitations were but he should have found something. No good ending here for Murray. There were places to move him. They were only on the hook for 10 million in recapture liability over the next 7 years, his contract was very affordable and he's a legitimate top 4. Makes things more interesting if he's out there on July 1st.
Ehrhoff did not want to be in Buffalo, (and there's no ill will, at least from me, for that), and Nolan does not want anyone who does not want them. This is why he'll be an ex-Sabre. They could have traded him, IMO rather easily, and that would have been much cheaper than the buyout. Therefore, the possible recapture penalty is of greatest concern to Buffalo. Tomorrow is the last day to undo bad contracts with no cap consequences. Doing the math and weighing the risks, most teams would have traded him and worried about the recapture penalty when/if it happened. From a pure dollar standpoint, Pegula would spend less with that strategy. In the end, I am encouraged, this is a hockey decision and not a budget one. It also tells me that Buffalo expects to be near the cap in three to five years. Hopefully by then their talent will be commensurate with their salaries. It also tells me that TM is confident about signing FA's in July. He already knows Ott's and Moulson's contract expectations. Buffalo is making decisions based on on-the-ice factors rather than their budget, and that should encourage every Sabres fan, (as well as any hockey fans who cherish truth & justice).
I am liking Tim Murray more and more. He gave as much transparent feedback to fans as he should have. The only concern is that he may have been too transparent. After over 15 years of Darcy Regier that is very refreshing. During the draft he did, (or at least tried hard), to do what he said to expect. If he operates with his fellow GM's like this he could quickly unwind the damaging reputation developed under Darcy. His moves are focused on making his team better and not on extraneous exigencies such as finances. It's got to be refreshing to him to work for an owner that encourages just that. He came into Buffalo with a reputation for making shrewd draft choices. He had six top-74 picks and selected the player who may prove to be the best in this class. Two other picks were rated as possible first round picks, and the two thirds were projected second rounders. The strong pipeline just got a lot better. More than anything, he is not acting out of fear. Others with such a s#!tty roster often make desperate swing-for-the-fences moves, or otherwise mortgage the future to make today appear less bleak. It will take time to turn this team around, but he is acting decisively to do just that. With a lot of luck, the Sabres could be a playoff contender in 15-16. More importantly, they are gunning at being legitimate SC contenders in three or four years. He's making moves now to make that a realistic probability.
From the FA thread in reference to the Ehrhoff buyout: Good point, given the timeline in the rebuild, my preference is to stick with the numbers. Value is value. Unless there was some real toxicity or a desire to go play in Europe in a year or two, I'm going to be left scratching my head. With the abundance of prospects and young players in the system now, many will still be developing at the end of Ehrhoff's contract. Because of the cost controlled contracts (ELCs, bridges, initial extensions) the 3 million would be a much smaller impact than on the teams close to contention right now like LA, CHI, BOS, etc. for example. Also, because of the surplus of young players, many will be able to be dealt. Rebuilding and 'selling' teams have shown a willingness to eat cap space so there are plenty of ways to minimize or negate a recapture penalty that only eats 3-4% of a 85 million cap (say in 2020). The cap isn't as rigid as it was a few years ago in my opinion. I see a very flexible situation. Also, if Ehrhoff retires in 2018, Buffalo will likely still be well under the cap. Every dollar under the cap year-end-number can be applied toward's Ehrhoff's recapture hit. Murray will have plenty of time to manipulate call ups and roster moves to manage the recapture penalty. It's possible they can eat up 5.8 milllon of recapture after 2019 for example, or in 20. There isn't a fixed AAV for recapture from my understanding. I never thought they were reacting to fans once the committed to an extended tear down, it would be scary if they did. As far as the long term benefit is concerned, that may be true. I see it as the safest, lowest risk play (unless circumstances were other than what we heard and he HAD to move) possible. I believe they used it as it was intended, as a bail out. Given the shortage and demand for top 4 dmen in both conferences, I'll need more information before I consider it anything better than a marginal move. It may turn out ot be a really smart move or a gigantic mistake too. I should also say how great it is to have an owner willing to spend like that. Depending on what we learn in the next few weeks, I might throw any of my questions about the decision out the window.
Glad they qualified Adam; expected the other offers. Since Knapp is a local kid, (York, NY, pop. >2,000 unless you count cows), I'm disappointed, but he simply did not earn it. Some of these may turn out to be nice players, but essentially it's a group that bought themselves more time. Of course, Tyler Ennis was a first round center with a good attitude to go along with some nice talent. He will get signed but hopefully for not too much.
Re: the compliance buyout intended as a bailout That's well stated. Since they go away forever very soon, I see it as a one (or two) time pass to undo a past mistake. Darcy, no doubt with Terry's blessing, went nuts in the euphoric FA period after the new ownership. I distinctly recall your demurring comments about the Ehrhoff and Leino signings. I did not like that at the time, but that's what euphoria will do to you. You were right. And the Sabres were right to hit the reset.
Give me enough guesses and it'll balance out. After a steady diet of crow on many of my guesses on LA, ANA, and Colorado the last couple years, I was bound to get something right. I'm really interested to see what Ennis gets. I have no idea how he'll be priced, Murray has to set some precedent for the next few years on each one of these. I wonder if he's going to give him another bridge or to try to wrap up some of the UFA years into this contract.
The Sabres got above the floor in a hurry, and I do not dislike any of the moves. - Gionta wore the C, he's from Rochester, and my guess is that he wants to go into coaching. I expect he'll have a fine influence on the youngsters. - Moulson is the only FA (that I though Buffalo might have any shot at) worth giving both dollars and term to; he obviously knows Buffalo and I do not think he was persuaded only by the dollars, and the FO knows what kind of locker room presence to expect. A team can always use more Cornell guys. - Gorges had Buffalo on his NMC list recently, but he dropped them off the list on Saturday. He was fine with going to Buffalo, and I think the D can now work in the prospects in proper time. - It's good to sign anyone away from the hockey team from Boston. Glad to bring you over from the dark side, Mr. Mezsaros. Locking up Marcus Foligno means my game-worn sweater is good for at least another couple of years, (well, actually I picked him because his name will never be out of style on a Sabres' sweater). Tyler Ennis will probably get paid, and I expect they'll lock up the other remaining RFA's. The team will then have the flexibility of trading again from a relative position of strength, i.e., they can make hockey moves rather than retaining someone like Stewart if they get the right offer. If Tyler Myers improves this year like he did under Nolan then they will have a real trade gem. Christian Ehrhoff. Who?
They are somewhat like a start up with a boatload of VC$, (venture capital for anyone not in the know). Any improvements can look dramatic because they're coming off such a low base. Still, decisions are being made for the long term best interest of the team, and nary a thought to what's going to placate a few fans. In the process of doing the right thing, they've made a lot of Sabres fans happy.
Rebuilds need talented veterans. I think Gorges is going to be a very good influence, and nothing drives me nuts like watching young, high skilled prospects playing with low skill players. I think it stymies development in a way, Moulson addresses that. Gionta will be very useful on the ice. I like all 3 for the Sabres very much, thought they had a very good day.
