Awaiting Mongo's 'things to watch' Week 4/Bucs

Couldn't wait for Mongo to post his, so I have some pre-game thoughts. Feel free to add/expand.

1) Gerald McCoy versus Bears interior OLine.

IMO the most important match up of the game if he plays. If McCoy constantly penetrates, there won't be a run game, and Mitch is in for a long day. McCoy is one of the best in the league at 3-tech DT, and his name is oft lost when we talk about Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. In Tampa's 4-3, he shifts around often. However, he is listed as questionable with his biceps. His 1 tech? 350 lb Vita Vea, also questionable with undisclosed, according to espn. Whitehair, Long, and Kush need to be on point, particularly fundamentally. Can see a lot of holds if McCoy is on his game.

With his injury, my inner pessimist gives him the advantage. If the bears can get the run game established, Lavonte David is one of the best in the game at the 2nd level at LB.

2) Roquan/Trevathan/Amos versus Cameron Brate and OJ Howard

Dirk Koetter loves his 2 TE sets, and both of these guys are dependable, not so much elite; though Howard is the one with potential and more targets on the year.

Edge: Bears

3) Mike Evans v Kyle Fuller

Advantage Evans. Big, fast, strong, and a guy Fitz this year loves to chuck the ball downfield to. Evans, though not top tier, is easily AJ Green level of WR. This has the potential for a huge mismatch is Fitz is given time to throw. Which leads me to point 4....

4) Khalil Mack v Donovan Smith/Demar Dotson

Advantage Bears. Smith is no slouch, and Dotson is probable with a knee injury, being limited in practice Weds and yesterday. I would attack Dotson all day.

5) Mitch/Nagy versus Mike Smith

Smith will bring pressure and will try to eliminate the run game and easy passes. If Mitch shows progressions, this defense is beatable. If mitch and the bears limit mistakes, bears win.

 

The Bears’ defense is potent, but will it do more than “contain” FitzMagic? The Bucs’ run defense is for real. That’s the only area of Chicago’s offense that has teeth. Is Trubisky reliable enough to not make mistakes and will he throw to other receivers besides (editAllen Robinson. That will get old and in a hurry. The 2 defenses are closer than you think. The offenses, not so much. Tampa Bay by a touchdown, 27-20.

 

Desean Jackson still has big play ability too. And to your point about Tampa's two TEs, I see that matchup being in their advantage as well given how poor our LBs (particularly Trevathan) have been in pass coverage.

The pressure on Fitzpatrick will be there and we will sack him several times. But I fear we get burned once or twice for big passing plays in the second half. I expect zero progress from Trubisky on offense.

Bucs 20 Bears 13

 

God I hope you're wrong in your prediction for Trubisky's forward progress. I am hoping that every game sees more improvement.

 

I am hoping so too. I've been hoping that for 15 games he's played in and I've seen none. I see a QB who gets easily flustered, who can't read a defense, who is not able to look past his first read, who is not as accurate as he's made out to be, who cannot throw a good deep ball, who has happy feet in the pocket, who throws off his back foot... ugh. Yes, hopefully I'm wrong about this week.

 

When you spell it out like that blang that really reduces the amount of optimism I currently suffer from.

Ugh.

 

So you think the Bears defense will allow the Bucs to score the same as the Pittsburg defense did. Hmmm interesting.

I would also be interested in you explaining just how the Bucs and Bears defenses are “closer than you think” I mean even the “for real” Bucs run defense isn’t as good as the Bears. Please don’t compare the passing D’s. It’s not pretty.

 

All good Pat. I'm not territorial.

Good write-up.

Rob, please don't feed the troll.

 

One of your Bears Homies rolled a 20-13 Bucs win after my prediction... don’t see you jumping on that one. Watch and see.

 

This concerns me too. When Trev dropped into coverage earlier in the year he got smoked, hell he didn't even seem to be on the same field or rather stadium.

Trubisky vs Bears defense
I only hope Trubisky can sustain some drives otherwise the defense will likely be gassed like they were at the end of the Packers game.
Let's hope that they are mutually inclusive and not exclusive.

 

Bears have been solid against the TE this season.

11 rec 130 yds and 2 TDS. One on a blown coverage last week and one in garbage time against the Seahawks.

They have been very good against Running backs.

11 rec 84yds 1 TD

This game could change that but I don’t see with how they have played this season so far that you could label it an advantage for the Bucs.

 

Packers TEs are garbage, even Graham. This is the best TE group we've faced so far and when put to the test the LBs haven't been great in coverage this year. Glad you see it as an advantage for us, hope you're right. I don't.

 

I don't see either team having a lot of success on the ground. If one was able to do that it would prob be crucial. But it looks to me like this game will be won in the air.

- When i looked it up i was surprised to find the Bears pass D actually ranks 9th in the league. No doubt helped by a stellar pass rush, but still, there has been some good play from the secondary thru 3 games. That said, this may be the one where they come unstuck.

Everyone knows my views on Prince, but he will be missed in this game because the dropoff behind him is big. The Bears seem set to make a project out of Kevin Toliver, but whatever they're seeing during the week im not seeing on gameday. Toliver looked horrible during PS and simply didn't belong out there last week after PA went down. I didn't even like Crevon LeBlanc but was shocked to see Toliver survive over him. Hell i would've kept Doran Grant over Toliver easy.

All this is to say Toliver is about to get abused in this game. Unless Fangio gets creative with his lineup to keep both Callahan & McManus on the field together(prob my preferred choice tbh), this is gonna be ugly. The Bears need to be able to dominate with just a 4 man rush. I doubt Fangio goes to blitzes until he's well past plan A.

Every week I expect the clock to strike midnight and Fitz"insertstupidnameplaynicknamehere" to turn back into a pumpkin. Its gonna happen, he's just not this good. Will it be this week though...


Nagy v The Playbook Pt. II

As expected, last week was too soon. This week isn't.

One way or another Nagy has got to open the playbook this week. Is it a risk? With Trubisky, of course. But they cant keep winning games with 16points of Offense. I doubt they do this week.

The Bucs have the worst pass D in the league, averaging a monster 362 ypg. Opposing QB's have run up a combined 117QBR. They've faced some good offenses but still, they are bad. Vernon Hargreaves is gone for the year and even an upgrade at S following Chris Conte's injury won't help much.

This is a big chance for Trubisky. He doesn't look ready to take it to me, but that doesn't mean he won't. This is almost guaranteed to put egg on my face, but somehow someway i think he'll make just enough plays.

Edge: Playbook


This is def a game the Bears could lose. Its strange, but even tho the Bears have been better than expected overall so far, this game is less of a lock imo than it felt before the season started. Could go either way but i'll keep the faith this week.

Bears 27 Bucs 24

 

I considered this in my quick, half-hungover write up prior to having my coffee. But to Rob's point about the bears limiting TEs and RBs receiving out of the backfield, in 3 games, OJ Howard has 11 catches on 14 targets for 222 yards, Brate 3 catches on 6 targets for 36 yards.

You bring up an excellent point with Desean Jackson, and another stat I glossed over in my quick write up, Tampa's TEs/WRs have 18 catches for over 20 yards on the season. Koetter loves to throw the ball downfield. Jackson (5), not the speed threat he once was and Mike Evans (6) with OJ right behind at 4 all over 20 yards. I think Eddie Jackson will be busy, but also believe that the TEs are limited in the short/mid range. "Dont get beat deep" better be the mantra Fangio was preaching this week.

If Tolliver is on Godwin or Jackson I believe this is going to be an ugly mismatch, which means Jackson likely playing over the top will be helping him, Amos helping Fuller with Evans when Fangio decides to go 2-high safeties. I imagine Roquan will take Howard, the more athletic TE and Trevathan on Brate when they go man.

Beau Allen, Tampa's 3rd DT with Vea and McCoy ruled out with a foot. McCoy and Vea limited with biceps and calf injuries. But after that, they are paper thin. Mitch Unrein is on IR. The next man up is.....nobody. I just checked their 'transactions' page on the buc's NFL website and they signed a CB and a Safety this week, which makes me think that Vea and McCoy will be playing the whole game.

I think Nagy/Helfrich/Heistand have to get creative with running the ball outside the guards and keep the offense on the field to gas the grossly limited DT situation Tampa has, and I think there has to be someone chipping Lavonta David constantly, because if you get to the second level after beating their DLine, he's one of the best in making sure RBs don't get to the 3rd level. McCoy and Long will be a fun match up, but if he goes Kush's side, I see an issue, because McCoy is taking up the hands of Whitehair and Kush while Long is on his own with Vea.

Also news/another point. Jerome Boger is our referee. Last time we saw him was week 5 of 2017 against the vikings. Nine penalties for 70 yards called against the bears, eight penalties against the Vikes. However, Nagy has a better disciplined team than Fox.

 

Bears secondary definitely worries me in this one as well as trusting Trevathan and Smith to cover the middle of the field.....had some costly mistakes that led to early touchdowns there against the Cardinals.

I don't feel great about this game....what we really need is Trubisky's very best outing to date...and I don't feel confident we will get that.

 

Well, I couldn't have been more wrong about not seeing any progress from Trubs this week. Feels great to be wrong. Even if he has some stinkers later in the season, at least we know he's capable of a game like today.

 

I think you owe Mr Travathan an apology as well.

 

I really don't think you're the one who should be piling on over someone else being wrong, rob.

Which btw, i don't even think blang was wrong. Trevathon played well yesterday and thats great, but he had arguably his worst half of football as a Bear just a week earlier. Thats what blang was highlighting and he was right to.

 

Lighten up. I wasn’t piling on just kidding around. I do give Blang props for calling out the DJax issue which was spot on.

That being said I’ll stand by my statement that the Bears ILB’s have been an advantage in pass coverage. Saying the first half against the cardinals was Travathans worst as a Bear is just totally false. I’d like an explanation on that one.

 

First, I said arguably, that should tell you it was an opinion not a statement of pure fact. But the general idea being it was right up there at least. Which brings me to the why. I don't actually have time for a 10page circular argument debate fuckathon with you, lot of work on this week. So i'll keep it brief:

- When healthy, Trevathon is a very consistent player, one of the most on that D the last 3 years. He tends to have a high floor. So if he's playing shit it should be noticeable.

- It was noticeable. For whatever reason he really didn't seem to pick up the pace of the game immediately and started slow. Dunno why, ask him. But he didn't look like his usual self until maybe inside 2mins of the first half. Also, he got smoked by David Johnson so easily he wasn't even close to contesting the catch for his TD. And im about 80% sure he should've tracked the TE who scored the first TD catch too. At the very least Trevathon bit on the play fake and took himself out the play. That catch was also completely uncontested and a walk in TD.

So there's some quick reasons from me.

But you seem to hold Trevathon in lower esteem. So please give me examples of some games where Trevathon has played a shittier half of football than giving up TWO easy ass TD's and generally playing at a slower speed setting than everyone else on the field. And if you kop out and say the Devante Adams hit im gonna be very disappointed.