ALDS Matchups: BAL vs. DET

Baltimore Orioles (96-66, F-1st +12.0) vs. Detroit Tigers (90-72, F-1st, +1.0)

Season Series

+DET 5W-1L

Game 1 (5:30)

(QS=20)Chris Tillman (13-6) 3.34 (1.23/.238), 150/66 (21HR)
vs.
(QS=22)Max Scherzer (18-5) 3.15 (1.18/.238), 252/63 (18HR)

Chris Tillman: Tillman went 20 starts without allowing more than three earned runs before allowing four on 11 hits against Toronto in his last start. The Orioles had won the previous 11 games that Tillman had started. Hopefully, he got it all out of his system and is ready for the final push. He holds righties to a .225 BAA, but 12 HR have some from that side while lefties are hitting .249. Tillman's numbers with runners on and whatnot are just as good as Scherzers are, but the numbers are in different places. He has a BAA under .224 in all RISP categories except with two outs and a man on third, he allows a .281 BAA. He has a .227 with the bases empty and a .077 with the bases loaded. He is undefeated in six starts against the Tigers with some very solid numbers and has been outstanding at home. He has put up a very good season's worth of numbers and will hope to transfer that to the post season in his first career start in October.


2014 Home (18 starts)
(5-5) 2.54 (1.14/.224), 9HR

Career vs. Detroit (6 starts)
(3-0) 3.58 (1.22/.209), 4HR

Career in Postseason (0 starts)
NA

vs. Batter
Ian Kinsler (16 AB) .250, 2B, HR, 2RBI
Miguel Cabrera (13 AB) .385, 2B, HR, 4RBI
Victor Martinez (10 AB) .400, 2B


Max Scherzer: Oddly enough, we have not seen Scherzer this season in either of the two series we played Detroit. In his last five starts to end the season, Scherzer was 3-0 and the Tigers won all five games. He allowed more than two earned runs only once and gave up only a single home run. He has, however, walked three or more batters in three of those starts; all at least six innings and all at least four hits allowed as well. Scherzer has struggled with giving up runs at Camden Yards for his career and has an ERA a shade under four against Baltimore in six career starts. He has a .242 BAA against lefties with 13 of his 18HR and 42 of his 63 walks coming from that side and a .232 against righties. In all the categories with runners on base, Scherzer has higher than a .222 BAA only with the bases loaded and with a man on third and two outs; both sit at .250. With the bases empty and nobody out, he has a .284, so taking advantage of that with some leadoff hits will be important.


2014 Away (19 starts)
(7-4) 3.49 (1.23/.253), 9HR

Career at Camden Yards (3 starts)
(1-0) 4.95 (1.15/.247), 4HR

Career vs Baltimore (6 starts)
(3-1) 3.92 (1.36/.280), 5HR

Career in Postseason (9 starts, 2 relief)
(4-2) 3.42 (1.14), 74/24, 3HR

vs. Batter
Alejandro De Aza (43 AB) .256, 2B, HR, 2RBI
J.J. Hardy (23 AB) .174, 2B, HR, 3RBI
Nelson Cruz (21 AB) .381, 2B, HR, 4RBI
Adam Jones (18 AB) .500, 2 2B, HR, 2RBI
Nick Markakis (16 AB) .313, 2 2B
Kelly Johnson (15 AB) .267, 2 2B
Delmon Young (12 AB) .250, 2B, RBI
Jimmy Paredes 1/3, 2B
Steve Pearce 1/3


.. and it finally begins. The Tigers are the most difficult possible matchup for us in the first round and I honestly don't see this going anything less than the full five games. We lost a series in April to them 2-1 and got swept by them in May, but this team didn't really start to get going until early-mid July before the break.

Tillman has not been as good as Scherzer this year, but pretty close and still very good. Markakis, De Aza, Cruz and especially Jones have moderate to high success against him with Jones hitting .500 in 18 AB. Scherzer has managed to go 3-1 against us for his career, but the other stats show that he struggles and even more so at Camden Yards. His career postseason numbers are very good, though.

Tillman gets hit around pretty good by both Cabrera (.385) and Martinez (.400) which isn't that surprising since Tillman has that .249 BAA against lefties and Martinez is a solid lefty hitter. He is a perfect 3-0 against Detroit in six starts with very good numbers and has been outstanding at home.

The Tigers' top three starters they will be throwing at us (Scherzer, Verlander and Price) are also the last three AL Cy Young award winners, something that is quite rare in ALDS history. That would seem to put us at a disadvantage as we will be using Tillman, Norris, Chen and Gonzalez. Definite advantage to the Tigers.

The bullpen situation also shows a clear cut winner; Baltimore. Our bullpen has the third lowest ERA in the AL at 3.10 and a 1.16 WHIP to go with it, good for second place. The Tigers bullpen has a 4.29 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP which are both in the bottom three in the AL. Obviously, we will want to get to that bullpen as soon as possible. Easier said than done, of course.

Not surprisingly, not too many people are picking Baltimore to come out on top in this one. This team will have to rise to a whole new level to beat Detroit especially when it comes to defense at third base. It's really too bad we lost Machado for the second year in a row, but we got this far without him. Giving the Tigers extra outs will put our postseason aspirations in a coffer real fast, so I hope Peredes and/or Johnson have been seriously working on their defense at third base in the last few days. I think if we can beat Detroit, we can go all the way, but these guys aren't going to go down easily and we're going to have to find a new level of competitiveness to have a chance.

 

This is going to be one uphill battle.

Get to their bullpen though....and we stand one hell of a chance.

 

I know everyone is talking about facing their 3 cy young winners, but outside of Scherzer, Verlander has been average this year, and we have hit Price in the past. And for some reason, this team always seems to step up to the challenge when facing tough pitchers. I like that fact that we get Scherzer at home. Its not going to be easy, and I think the Tiger's starters will stay out as long as possible. They dont want to use their bullpen at all.

So freakin stoked to start the playoffs!!

 

Orioles Roster

Here's the Division Series roster:

INFIELDERS/OUTFIELDERS (12)
Cruz, Nelson OF
De Aza, Alejandro OF
Flaherty, Ryan INF
Hardy, J.J. INF
Johnson, Kelly INF
Jones, Adam OF
Lough, David OF
Markakis, Nick OF
Paredes, Jimmy INF
Pearce, Steve INF
Schoop, Jonathan INF
Young, Delmon OF

CATCHERS (2)
Hundley, Nick
Joseph, Caleb

PITCHERS (11)
Brach, Brad RHP
Britton, Zach LHP
Chen, Wei-Yin LHP
Gausman, Kevin RHP
Gonzalez, Miguel RHP
Hunter, Tommy RHP
Jimenez, Ubaldo RHP
Miller, Andrew LHP
Norris, Bud RHP
O'Day, Darren RHP
Tillman, Chris RHP

 

Disappointed that Berry isn't on the roster instead of either Gausman or Jimenez. Would have liked to see Webb also. But glad not to see Meek. Minor quibbles and nothing major.

 

wow, Buck went with 11 pitchers. I thought for sure Berry would have made it and Jimenez would have been left off.

 

Tilly looked great at the start, but he may not make it through 5 with that pitch count.

And it might be me, but I'm already tired of these announcers:

One announcer - The Orioles can really hit the HR. They hit a ton this year.
2nd announcer - Yeah, well if the Tigers were in this ball park, they would hit 200 as well. Heck, they'd have 150 HRs from just 3 of their hitters.



Second annoying comment:

Kinsler had an 11 or 12 at bat against Tilly. One announcer says "The Orioles just dont know what to do with this. They are not use to these kind of at bats.

Yeah, because we won 90 games and never once seen someone have a high pitch count. Ugh - annoys the hell out of me.

 

I noticed that too, very annoying but hey, we're now up 10-3 in the eighth inning. Maybe I shouldn't be, but I'm a little surprised just how good we're looking in game one and I hope it's more than just adrenaline.

 

BEAT DOWN!!!!!!

*YAHOO* *DANCE*

 

Man Hunter scares me every time he goes out there.

 

Indeed he does and the game ended with a whisper. The crowd had been so into the game and so loud, but there was silence when the final out was made. I just thought that was weird and also, why is Cal Ripken doing play by play for the KC/LAA game instead of the BAL/DET series? Also, very weird.

Working on the next game's matchup now.

 

Just like I said....get to their bullpen and it's game over.

Joba looked more like a homeless guy rather than a major league pitcher. I think at the end of this season he may fall into the category of.....UNEMPLOYED.

 

Baltimore Orioles (96-66, F-1st +12.0) vs. Detroit Tigers (90-72, F-1st, +1.0)

ALDS

BAL leads 1-0

Game 2 (12:00)

(QS=15)Wei-Yin Chen (16-4) 3.54 (1.23/.266), 136/35 (23HR)
vs.
(QS=18)Justin Verlander (15-12) 4.54 (1.40/.275), 159/65 (18HR)

Wei-Yin Chen: I don't think anyone expected Chen to win 16 games this season, but that's exactly what happened and his other numbers aren't too bad either. He lost the last two starts of the regular season and went six innings in both and also allowed two earned runs in both, but unfortunately allowed three unearned runs combined. He had not allowed a home run in three straight starts with only four walks. Earned runs wise, he has not allowed more than two in five starts to end the regular season. Chen did not pitch against the Tigers this season, but is 1-0 with a nice WHIP and BAA, but also an ERA close to five. The four Detroit batters he has seen haven't done too well against him, but he has never faced Victor Martinez either.

Chen's left/right splits are pretty much even BAA wise. Righties hit .266 with 20 of his 23 HR ad 28 of his 35 walks coming from that side; all good for a .417 SLGA and lefties are hitting .268 off him. He has a .279 BAA with the bases empty, .204 with RISP, .267 with RISP and two outs, a nice .000 with the bases loaded, .286 with men on and two outs and a .125 with two outs and a man on third.

Like just about every pitcher we have, Chen has struggled a bit in day games, but is 8-2 at home despite the high WHIP and BAA. Of course, he will be making his postseason debut here in a game where Detroit is going to be looking for some revenge most likely of the early inning variety.


2014 Home (15 starts)
(8-2) 3.76 (1.32/.289), 11HR

Career vs. Detroit (2 starts)
(1-0) 4.91 (1.18/.220), 2HR, 4BB

Career in Postseason (0 starts)
NA

2014 Day Games (8 starts)
(5-3) 4.57 (1.25/.264), 7HR

vs. Batter
Ian Kinsler (10 AB) .300, 2 2B
Miguel Cabrera 1/4, 2BB, K
Torii Hunter 1/4, 2B, 2BB, K
Rajai Davis 1/3, K


Justin Verlander: Overall, this has been a very disappointing season for Verlander despite finishing the season with two strong starts. In the six starts before those, he had allowed four or more runs in four of those games. In the last two of the season, Verlander allowed only two runs total in 15.1 IP with 14 hits and zero walks. His strikeouts are way down this year, though. In the two starts we saw him this season, he threw eight innings and allowed only two runs back in April, but took the only loss of the regular season for the Tigers against the Orioles. In the second start in May, he went six innings and allowed five runs on six hits, three walks and a home run, but got the win; go figure, huh? The Tigers have won the last four games he has started and that can be extended to six of the last eight.

Going by the below stats, the thing that sticks out the most is that in eight career starts at Camden Yards, Verlander is 7-0 with sparkling numbers and is 9-2 overall for his career against Baltimore. However, he has struggled both in day games and on the road in 2014. His postseason numbers are very good as well despite being saddled with five losses and there isn't a single Orioles player that has a BA above .250 against him. A lot of home runs and RBIs, though.

Verlander's left/right splits are dramatic. Lefties are hitting .239 against him with 10 of his 18HR, 101 of his 159Ks and 45 of his 65 walks coming from that side, but righties are hitting a whopping .321 off of him with a .455 SLG and .361 OBP. He allows a .262 BAA with the bases empty, .302 with RISP, .258 with RISP and two outs, .400 with the bases loaded, .274 with men on and two outs and .319 with a man on third and two outs. It's not hard to see why Verlander has struggled this season; righties destroy him.


2014 Away (18 starts)
(8-7) 4.82 (1.37/.268), 9HR

Career at Camden Yards (8 starts)
(7-0) 2.84 (1.07/.208), 5HR

Career vs Baltimore (15 starts)
(9-2) 3.43 (1.15/.222), 11HR

2014 Day Games (12 starts)
(6-4) 4.31 (1.40/.262), 7HR

Career in Postseason (15 starts)
(7-5) 3.28 (1.07), 108/29, 12HR

vs. Batter
Nick Markakis (48 AB) .250, 4 2B, 3B, 2RBI, 10K
J.J. Hardy (34 AB) .235, 2B, 3HR, 7RBI
Adam Jones (33 AB) .182, 2B, HR, 5RBI, 9K
Alejandro De Aza (31 AB) .226, 2B, 3B, 2HR, 4RBI, 10K
Delmon Young (30 AB) .200, RBI, 10K
Nelson Cruz (25 AB) .200, 2B, HR, 5RBI


Even aside from that eighth inning explosion, I thought the Orioles played a very strong game. Good defense as always though Tillman was probably fighting his emotions the entire game. He still managed to do alright in his first career postseason start. Offensively, we didn't let Scherzer get away with anything and the eighth inning just shows how bad Detroit's bullpen has been this season. If it wasn't clear before this game, it certainly is now for the Orioles; get to the bullpen as fast as possible and it seems swinging early is a good strategy to use.

Both Chen and Verlander struggle during day games pretty much equally, but Verlander's career numbers against the Orioles are very good and it's unsettling that he has never lost a start at Camden Yards having won all but one of his starts here and that was a ND. Chen has pitched well at home overall and Verlander has been dreadful on the road, but Verlander has the postseason experience on this side of the globe and some damn fine numbers to go with it. We did crush Verlander once this season despite losing that game and we are a much different team now than we were then as evidenced by tonight's game.

Obviously, Chen is the wild card in this game and will almost certainly have early inning jitters which could leave the Orioles down early. It was nice to see our bullpen putting on the usual show though O'Day did give up a home run, but Cabrera is going to get them no matter what. At least we didn't really have to use Britton much and we could see him go two innings in this one if necessary with the off day before kicking off game three at Detroit. The Tigers will almost certainly answer loudly in game two after being annihilated in game one, so do the Orioles have it in them to weather that storm and steal the first two games of the series?

 

Haha - I heard him compared to a truck driver.

Sess makes a great point - Cal not doing the O's game?? I cant believe it. Maybe its because I was annoyed at the first game, but is it too early to say I miss it being on Fox. I mean, some of these guys dont even do their homework before the game. Two more comments:

Eckersley - "I wonder why they are bringing in O'day, when their set up man is Hunter"

Are you kidding me?? Is that even serious?? I mean, when on earth was Hunter even considered close to being our closer??

Another announcer - "I dont understand why Buck would bring in Britton for 4 outs. He's not use to this kind of work".

AGAIN - REALLY?? He use to be a freakin starter!! And what is even more surprising, an inning before that comment, they had mentioned that the last time we were in the playoffs (or maybe it was last year), Britton was down in AAA starting. So if you knew he was starting, why would he NOT be able to handle 4 outs.

And I'm normally not a homer like this. I know that fans call in all the time to the radio show and say "they dont say enough about our team" and "they are disrespecting our team". Well I'm not like that. But last nights game, I couldn't help it. Now I'm sure they made mistakes on the Tigers side, but I cannot pick them out. It is just a shame with the shear lack of preparation for these games. Its lazy and unacceptable on the national level.

 

Now, about last nights game.

Not sure when the last time I watched a nail biter for 7 and 1/3, in which it turned into a complete ass kicking!!

Game one in the books! We beat Scherzer. I'm not saying the Verlander and Price will be easy, but I dont think this team fears either one of them.

As for how Buck used the bullpen last night. I'm not going to question the man. He is where he is because of his track record. And any decision he makes, success or failure, I'll go with it. But man, when he went to the bullpen, and used those guys like that, I was sweating bullets. Bringing Miller in for 5 outs, trying to stretch O'day to 4 outs, and the finally bringing Brittion in to get the last 4 outs (not that he needed to anyways).

Its not that I didn't think they couldn't do it, its just that it has never been done all year. And you would think, game one of the playoffs, you keep things as normal as possible. With all of the adrenaline going on with the home crowd, the manager should try to keep things normal.

But then I get the other side of the argument - you use your best pitchers when you need them in the playoffs. That could be the 6th inning or the 9th.

It ended up working out, but I was really nervous.

 

It's would be great for Os fan if Cal was announcing but not so much for anyone else. He'd sort of have a bias. Unfair to put him in that spot. Loved the Miller call although don't think he'll be pitching today. Would consider burning him against V-Mart.

Alright, Miller and Hunter got it done yesterday. Brach and Gausman are up today. If Chen can go 5 innings and allow 2 runs we'll be in good shape.

 

Well odawg, Cal would have been the only TBS announcer that knew anything at all about the Orioles, so its a situation where that bias would have been needed.

 

Baltimore Orioles (96-66, F-1st +12.0) vs. Detroit Tigers (90-72, F-1st, +1.0)

ALDS

BAL leads 2-0

Game 3 (3:30)

(QS=11)Bud Norris (15-8) 3.65 (1.22/.242), 139/52 (20HR)
vs.
(QS=25)David Price (15-12) 3.26 (1.08/.240), 271/38 (25HR)

Bud Norris: Norris ended the season strong with four out of five of his last season starts being quality starts and had shut out the other team in three of them. He won four of his last five decisions and the Orioles have won the last six games he has started and nine out of ten. Norris made two starts against Detroit this season. On April 5th, he allowed five runs on nine hits in five innings and took the loss. In May, he allowed four runs on five hits in 7.2 IP which I believe was the start Norris and Torii Hunter got into it. If I remember correctly, Norris was pitching a gem into the eighth inning, but got hammered in that inning and ended up drilling Torii Hunter with a fastball in the ribs after he had just allowed a home run which cleared the benches. I'm sure Detroit hasn't forgotten that and it might work against us in this game as I'm sure they will want some revenge now when it counts.

Norris's numbers in this situation are.. well, no need to pretty it up; they're awful. His last three regular season road starts weren't all that great. He allowed four runs in two innings against the Cubs, four runs in six innings against the Rays coming on four solo home runs and three runs in six innings against the Yankees with two home runs allowed. His road numbers aren't good, his numbers in day games are even worse, his numbers against the Tigers are even worse still and his numbers at Comerica Park are floating around in the Kuiper asteroid belt somewhere. Absolutely none of this is good for the Orioles and on top of that, this is his first career postseason start. Norris has a lot to overcome to be successful here. He did win 15 games and put up respectable numbers this season, but I don't think the deck could possibly be stacked more against him and the Orioles here.

Righties are hitting .226 against him with eight HR and lefties are hitting .255 with 12 home runs. Norris allows a .272 BAA with the bases empty, .173 with RISP, .179 with RISP and two outs, .333 with the bases loaded, .198 with men on and two outs and .250 with two outs and a man on third. Most of these numbers are strong, but he struggles on first pitches and with a 1-0 count.


2014 Away (15 starts)
(7-6) 4.80 (1.27/.252), 15HR

Career vs. Detroit (4 starts)
(0-3) 6.57 (1.38/.292), 4HR

Career at Comerica Park (2 starts)
(0-2) 10.80, 1.90/.391), 3HR

Career in Postseason (0 starts)
NA

2014 Day Games (8 starts)
(3-4) 5.57 (1.40/.281), 9HR

vs. Batter
Victor Martinez (12 AB) .333, 2B, HR, 3RBI
Torii Hunter (12 AB) .250, 2 2B, HR, 6RBI
Miguel Cabrera (12 AB) .250, 2 2B, RBI
Ian Kinsler 3/8, HR, 2RBI


David Price: Price has gone at least eight innings in 17 starts this season and five of them came with Detroit with three of those coming at home. Price has great numbers at Comerica, against the Orioles and during day games. However, he has struggled in the postseason for his career with a 5.06 ERA and a 1-4 record. This season against the Orioles in his one start, he took the loss and allowed three runs on nine hits in five innings. In two starts in 2013, Price was 1-0 with a 5.73 (1.82/.367), so we seem to have figured him out over the last two seasons.

His left/right splits are notable. Righties are hitting .234 with 20 of his home runs and 30 of his walks coming from that side while lefties are hitting .258. With the bases empty, he allows a .232 BAA, .256 with RISP, .209 with RISP and two outs, .667 with the bases loaded, .230 with men on and two outs and .444 with a man on third and two outs.

We have three guys that hit over .300 against Price for their career. Those players are Steve Pearce, Delmon Young, Nelson Cruz and J.J. Hardy. Price seems to struggle badly on the first pitch (.376 BAA), 1-0 count (.368), 2-0 count (.375), 2-1 count (.405) and 3-0 (1.000). First pitch swinging for guys like Delmon Young may work out just fine and it's hard to imagine Young not getting the start here. Obvoiusly though, it wouldn't be a bad thing to take ball one and give Price a chance to pitch himself into a hole. His postseason struggles only amplify his weaknesses, but we'll see how he responds when the Tigers really need someone to step up.


Career at Comerica Park (9 starts, 2 relief)
(6-2) 3.27 (1.18/.243), 4HR

Career at Camden Yards (0 starts)
NA

Career vs Baltimore (17 starts)
(7-3) 2.82 (1.24/.252), 6HR

2014 Day Games (14 starts)
(6-6) 3.28 (1.00/.220), 10HR

Career in Postseason (4 starts, 5 relief)
(1-4) 5.06 (1.31), 6HR

vs. Batter
Nick Markakis (47 AB) .255, 2B, 3B, 2RBI
Adam Jones (44 AB) .250, 3 2B, 3RBI
J.J. Hardy (36 AB) .333, 5 2B, 3RBI
Nelson Cruz (19 AB) .368, 2HR, 4RBI
Delmon Young (16 AB) .313, 2B, HR, 2RBI
Steve Pearce (12 AB) .333, HR, 3RBI
Alejandro De Aza 2/6


I get the feeling that the Norris/Hunter thing could very well give Detroit that little spark they need and God help us if he hits a Detroit batter in this game. Statistically, there's next to nothing that looks good for him. We should be able to have some success against Price, but Bud Norris is going to have to pitch the best game of his life here.

One thing that concerns me is that we had problems several times this season with putting teams away when we were in a position to sweep. We were rarely ever able to pull it off which played a part in having only one lengthy winning streak. However, it seems every time I underestimate this team, they prove me wrong. I certainly did not expect them to be up 2-0 going into Detroit, so who knows? Overcoming all odds to win is not out of the question in Baltimore, but this is going to be a tough one to win. Norris will need his A+ stuff and that's something he has rarely done this season. He did have a strong start in May before the eighth inning meltdown, but under postseason pressure for the first time? I guess we'll see what Norris is made of here.

 

[video]http://youtu.be/dirCCzQvhsc[/video]

 

good luck tonight Sess