I want to start this thread by stating I haven't given up on the 2021 season. But, there's a lot of noise out there revolving around a,) Why haven't the Browns extended Baker Mayfield's contract? b.) Do they have the cap space to pay a "Franchise Quarterback" and still retain the surrounding talent? c.) Should they extend Baker Mayfield's contract? So, in order to spark some conversations, I put the following spreadsheet together to (hopefully) provide some information.
My first glance at this data tells me that we are two ERFA's away from returning the entire offensive line room. Assuming the player has some acceptable level of demonstrated performance, ERFA's are very economically friendly tools to retain players that are already familiar with the organization, the culture, the coaching staff and the schemes. In this case, both Blake Hance and Michael Dunn have stepped into the "next man up" role and have performed. Tendering these two with ERFA contracts would start us out two deep at every O-line position. There are also two players on the current roster who will be UFA's for 2022 (Froholdt and Hubbard). One - I've never even heard of Hjalte Froholdt and Chris Hubbard (IMHO) hasn't exactly demonstated he's worth a $5M+ contract. For what its worth: Jack Conklin's 2022 contract has $9,000,000 in dead money with a cap save of $6,000,000
Next up . . . . Tight Ends. Two current players to deliberate here. David Njuko is currently playing under his 5th year option ($6,013,00). If they want him back, should he be extended prior to the end of the league year -or- let him test the Free Agent market and take the chance he opts to go elsewhere? Do you think he would sign for anything less that Austin Hooper's contract? Austin Hooper is currently under contract through the 2024 season. ($13,250,00 for 2022 and 2023, $3,750,000 for 2024. That's $30,250,000 over the next three years.) In Andrew Berry's world, that's Guard money (see Bitonio and Teller for 2023 and beyond). Does his production / contribution warrant this kind of money? FYI, his dead money/cap save in 2022 = $11,250,00/$2,000,000. 2023 = $7,500,000/$5,750,000. 2024 = $3750,000/$0 Harrison Bryant is still on his rookie contract through 2023.
It’s hard to put a contract value on any production player in Stefanski’s system. The ball gets spread around to so many players, all seem to be under utilized, but they are all getting their touches in this system. By now, there should be patterns forming on who is most productive and for my money, Njoku is the most productive in this group.. also the most injury prone. He’s been healthy so far in 2021 which helps his contract negotiations.
David Njoku is our: Best receiving tight end Best blocking tight end Best downfield option Best red zone threat Not only should he be extended, he should be starting over Hooper and taking nearly 100% of all TE snaps. Not only should Hooper not see the field in 2022, I don't know that he should finish this year either. He's on pace to finish the season with 37 receptions, 348 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Outside of his rookie season when he was a part-time player, that would be a career low in all categories. He's got at least eight drops this year. We jokingly refer to him as "YAC" given that his first instinct is to fall down after each catch. He has to go. Still a work in process and with Stefanski relying so heavily on three tight end sets, we need to address the position group in 2022 with either a mid-tier free agency or a mid-round draft pick.
I would argue that watching Blake Hance try is reason enough to extend Chris Hubbard for another 3-4 seasons.
Realistically, they have a BYE week to do some major soul-searching and figure some stuff out. If they come out of the BYE and lose to Baltimore at home, that's a season. Then we can start dropping the mock drafts. Spoiler ahead: WR, WR, WR, and RT in the first four rounds.
Speaking of... @Lyman -- when do we do the wide recevier room? Rashard Higgins is a free agent after 2021 and a likely departure from the team. He's been ineffective this season (15 receptions on 31 targets, 185 yards (12.3 YPC), and 1 TD as of this writing -- near career lows, 2017 and 2019). He's been disciplined by the coaching staff and has not had an opportunity to step up with a glaring need at the position, especially after the departure of Odell. He's earning $2,240,000 this season. JoJo Natson is a free agent after 2021 and a stop-gap solution, having not logged a single catch this season. He's primarily been used as a special teams player. His salary number was $275,000 this season. J'Marcus Bradley was waived December 11, 2021. He logged 5 receptions for 60 yards in spot duty with the Browns this season. Jarvis Landry will be on year five of his five year deal, earning $14,300,000 in 2022. His dead money/cap space = $1,500,000 / $16,553,125 (to try and keep formatting). Donovan Peoples-Jones will be on year three of four (his rookie deal) and is eligible for a new contract. He's due $780,000. He looks to be the current future playmaker of the group who should enjoy an even larger role going into 2022. Would be very nice to add a running mate to help him in that effort. As we sit here today, this is our 2022 WR1. Anthony Schwartz will be on year two of four (his rookie deal). He's due $881,046. Speedy but extremely raw. For a third round selection, I would call his rookie season disappointing so far. He's tallied 8 catches, 117 yards, and 0 touchdowns through 10 games. That track speed certainly was as-advertised, but all other aspects of his game need a lot of refinement if he's going to become more than just a utility player. Demetric Felton is listed as a WR (at least per www.spotrac.com) and will also be on year two of four (rookie deal). He's due $825,000. Obviously, the position room will need addressed. I expect the Browns to add pieces in both free agency and the draft, although we have also seen where the big splash/talent move (Odell) doesn't pay off for the team or offense's chemistry. Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, and Will Fuller lead a fairly deep 2022 free agent class at the position. Likewise, the 2022 Draft is stocked with quality pass-catchers. I'd also expect the team to look long and hard at extending/re-working Landry's deal. While his production has been down this year and he's (finally) been hit by the injury bug, he's still a fierce competitor and chief leader in the lockerroom. If the Browns can also re-think some of their passing schemes and personnel groupings, a move to that slot receiver spot could be very beneficial - especially if they can add another player on the boundary opposite DPJ.
The most obvious lack of talent on this team is at receiver and it's glaring....We have Landry, and to put it mildly, he kind of sucks. I wouldn't even put him in the top 50 NFL. I guess that's why we didn't even have him on the "hands team" to field the on-side kick last week. Yep, Stefanski thought it would be better to go with 3 linebackers and a fullback on the line in the obvious on-side kick situation, rather than send out any of his recievers, and who could blame him? Pretty sure that says it all about the Browns 2021 WR corp...
I love Jarvis and what he brought to the team. His time is expiring though and there's no way Berry's analytics allow him to make $15 mil. I think he and Hollywood are goners. That said, Stefanski has built a reputation for ignoring WRs. His blindness to what his play calling was doing to OBJ underscores the point, so no top tier WRs are coming to Cleveland. The unknown is whether his WR avoidance was wrapped around Baker being less than 100% from week two on. Maybe, but his Minnesota track record says otherwise. IMO they'll go for a "middle tier" WR in free agency and look to the draft to catch lightening. Schwartz has speed. Period. So unless we have a truly wizard like WR coach, he's got a long way to go. He's relatively cheap, so he may get another year to develop, but I doubt we'll be able to count on him. Njoku is my choice for the top TE spot, but I have to admit he seems to not get it sometimes (pre snap penalties). Hooper doesn't excite me at all, but his money creates a huge loss, so he may get another year before the price of letting him go meets Berry's threshold for letting him go. gotta chuckle out of the "drop and roll" post reception comment.
TBH... I think that decision says more about the Kevin Stefanski 2021 coaching year than it does about our wide receiver group. The 2020 Coach of the Year went from first to worst, I'm afraid.
Can I just say… Fuck free agent Fuck the draft Fuck all of the replace Baker talk If we want to improve this offense immediately, pull out the checkbook and hire Brian Hartline as the wide receiver coach NOW. Ever kid that steps on the field looks NFL ready. I’m not so sure that is recruiting, rather the coaching to get these young kids ready when it’s their turn. Maybe he couldn’t do the same magic with NFL diva receivers, but I really want to try.
I’m taking a vacation from football. We finally have a playoff contending caliber football team… only took 20 years to build, and people want to start over. If they do… I am done. With a healthy Baker, we are celebrating an AFC North Championship. That’s the difference in this season. Instead we have people chalking up his season to his skill set and looking to replace him, the coaches and any other player not named Myles Garrett or Nick Chubb. Why not blame those two? With a well timed sack here or there, the Browns are still playoff bound. Without a well timed penalty here or there, they are still playoff bound. Nope, let’s blame the entire season on gimpy( who by the way will heal) and a coach who had his work cut out because of his hurt QB. Not an excuse, just a reality you have to deal with for one season.
I don't want to speak for @Lyman, but he didn't say who's head. I'm just going to throw my hot take out here: demote (or fire) Stefanski.
Feels like activity in this thread should pick up now, especially since a winning season is out of reach. Based on his comments after the game last night, Baker is probably sitting out the Cincinnati match-up in Week 18 and getting his surgery. Can't blame him. Definitely some pretty sizeable rifts in that building at the moment. Hopefully, Andrew Berry can sit everyone down and begin the healing process. 2022 To-Do List Commit to Baker in 2022: give him an offseason to get healthy, get him a wide receiver (R1) and a right tackle (free agency) and let him earn a new deal (or not). Like it or not, there's no silver bullet for the QB position next year. The Browns aren't picking high enough to get a top tier guy and there doesn't appear to be a top tier guy in this class. Players like Rodgers or Wilson are a pipe dream and there's 22 red flags around Deshaun Watson that he should be considered plutonium for a franchise. Best case? Maybe sign a free agent QB like Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston, or Trevor Siemian to actually push Baker versus Case Keenum who's trash and collecting a massive paycheck. Priority Free Agent Retention: Jadeveon Clowney, David Njoku, and Denzel Ward need extensions, in no particular order. I let Clowney name his price and lock up him for so many seasons he retires a Cleveland Brown. Ward, early in the season playing injured and zone coverage, was a Bottom 5 cornerback. Once Joe Woods pulled his head out of his behind and played Ward in man, he returned to Top 3 status. I regret my Denzel slander from earlier and wholly endorse a big deal there, too. David Njoku is our best receiver currently on the roster and needs a 4-5 year deal to stay. Priority Cuts: Austin Hooper shouldn't spend more than 20 minutes on the roster in the new league year. We were hoodwinked with that signing and the team needs to cut bait and use the money for Njoku instead. Tough Convos with Coaches: the only coach who earned his money in 2021 was Stump Mitchell, the rest regressed massively. Kevin Stefanski should be on the hot seat after this year's performance. Joe Woods should have been let go early on and it wasn't until he remembered this team drafted man-coverage corners that he figured out how to coach a defense (and even then, he let Najee Harris run all over them twice). Bill Callahan had a miserable year as the offensive line coach. This team was clearly unprepared for Jack Conklin's injury and now that he's probably done as a Cleveland Brown, we have to sort that mess out. James Hudson, Blake Hance, Michael Dunn, and Drew Forbes logged deplorable starts and contributed to a skitterish Baker in the pocket, further regressing his game. Chad O'Shea (wide recievers)... well, did you watch the games? Ja'Marr Chase in one game against the Chiefs put up more than 50% of our top receiver's stats for a 16-game stretch - pathetic. Stefanski needs to re-tool the playbook and offensive game plans, relinquish play-calling to AVP, and coach like his job depends on it in 2022. Bill Callahan needs to toughen up and get at least one reserve lineman to play at a bare minimum NFL-caliber level. Joe Woods needs to never coach heavy Cover 2 zone again. O'Shea should probably look to another franchise for employment. 2022 Draft: the prudent move is going to be trading back to try and pick up 2023 selections. If this team does need to move on from Baker after next season, they'll need ammunition to get the next "franchise" QB. The worst case scenario is they have multiple selections to move up for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so that's really a win-win as I see it. Hopefully, Berry is able to move back once (or twice) in R1 to secure and extra 2023-R1 selection and still walk away with a decent option at wide receiver (it looks to be a deep class). The rest of the rounds will likely need to be used to back-fill the free agents we aren't able to re-sign, notably: linebacker, safety, and defensive line (another defense-heavy draft, it seems). Cutting Hooper (above) and adding another body to the TE room would be a nice to-do as well. As we always seem to say: there's always next year...
