2021 Draft Value Challenge

Discussion in 'NFL Draft' started by LAOJoe, Apr 27, 2021.

  1. LAOJoe Assistant Coach Manager Patreon Silver Maple Leafs Eagles

    RULES FOR DRAFT VALUE CHALLENGE




    IMPORTANT
    PLEASE PM ENTRIES TO @LAOJoe WITH THE CHALLENGE IN THE TITLE OR POST THEM HERE IF YOU DON'T CARE FOR SECRECY. YOU HAVE UNTIL ONE HOUR BEFORE THE DRAFT TO SUBMIT YOUR PICKS.
    We use the results of LAOJoe And RTTRUTH's 12th Annual Mock as the starting point. The entire mock is here: LAOJoe & RTTRUTH's 12th Annual Collaborative Mock Draft

    We each choose players we think would be taken earlier, later or around the same spot in the real draft compared to our "official" mock. You get points depending on what happens.

    We each pick 2 players per round who we think will get drafted higher and 2 we think would get drafted lower. We also choose 1 guy per round we think is closest to their exact spot.
    We also predict 2 UDFAs who were picked that would actually get drafted and 2 guys entirely not selected. EXAMPLE of Picks at the bottom. The nature of the scoring could see the winner emerge with a negative score.

    The extreme values are almost impossible to get but they can make or break you.
    A full round means the same spot or greater in the next/previous round and NOT necessarily 32 picks.


    Risers/Fallers
    >6-7 Full Rounds= 60 points Faller/70 Riser
    >5-6 Full Rounds= 50 points Faller/60 Riser
    >4-5 Full Rounds= 40 points Faller/50 Riser
    >3-4 Full Rounds= 30 points Faller/40 Riser
    >2-3 Full Rounds= 20 points Faller/30 Riser
    >1- 2 Full Rounds= 10 points Faller/20 Riser
    17-Full Round= 8 points Faller/10 Riser
    11-16= 6 points
    6-10= 3 points
    1-5= 1 point
    0=0 points
    If your faller pick is actually a riser you:
    lose 5 points +1 points for every spot.
    Maximum of -35 points.

    If your riser pick is actually a faller you:
    lose 5 points +1 point for every spot.
    If he goes undrafted you lose an extra 10.
    Maximum of -35 points; -40 if undrafted.

    Extra Rule: Mispicking an undrafted player from this mock to be drafted will give you -15.
    Extra Rule: Correctly picking an undrafted player from this mock to be drafted gives you 10 points per round.

    Closest to actual pick
    margin of error:
    0= 50 points (30 points in Round 1)
    +/-1= 30 Points (25 points in Round 1, 40 points in Rounds 4+)
    +/-2= 20 points (25 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-3= 15 points (20 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-4= 10 points (15 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-5= 7 points (12 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-6= 5 points (10 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-7= 3 points (9 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-8= 1 points (8 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-9= 0points (7 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-10= -1 points (6 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-11= -2 points (5 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-12= -3 points (4 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-13= -4 points (3 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-14= -5 points (2 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-15= -6 points (1 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-16= -7 points (0 points Rounds 4+)
    +/-(17-one full round)= -10 points
    +/-Between >1-2 full rounds= -15 points
    +/->2-3 full rounds= -25 points
    +/->3+ full rounds= -35 points
    1st-3rd Round undrafted = -50 points
    4th Round undrafted= -40 points
    5th round undrafted= -30 points
    6th round undrafted= -20 points
    7th round undrafted= -10 points
    ALSO in the 7th round you can only lose a maximum of 10 points if your guy is drafted AFTER his prediction. You can still lose more if he gets drafted earlier.
    EXTRA: A correctly undrafted guy gives you 20 points. If you guess wrong you lose 20 points.
    EXTRA: YOU CANNOT PICK ONE OF THE FIRST 7 PLAYERS DRAFTED FOR THE EXACT SPOT!!




    HERE IS AN EXAMPLE OF PICKS USING THE MOCK RESULTS FROM 5 YEARS AGO (7TH ANNUAL). NOTE THAT THE PICK POSITIONS ARE WHERE WE MOCKED THEM.
    Drafted Higher:
    1(9) Joey Bosa
    1(29) Ryan Kelly
    2(6) Robert Nkemdiche
    2(21) Hunter Henry
    3(18) Deion Jones
    3(30) Sean Davis
    4(7) Bronson Kaufusi
    4(29) James Bradberry
    5(1) Kevin Byard
    5(11) Nick Kwiatkowski
    6(28) Jacoby Brissett
    6(29) Parker Ehinger
    7(7) Glenn Gronkowski
    7(2) Tajae Sharpe
    UDFA. DT Vincent Valentine
    UDFA. CB Brandon Williams
    Completely Ignored. WR Tyreek Hill
    Completely Ignored. P Drew Kaser

    Drafted Lower:
    1(13) Reggie Ragland
    1(31) Noah Spence
    2(11) Cody Whitehair
    2(13) Kendall Fuller
    3(12) Jerald Hawkins
    3(21) Charone Peake
    4(20) Alex McAllister
    4(35) Sebastian Tretola
    5(6) D.J. White
    5(29) Will Monday
    6(20) Michael Jordan
    6(21) Joel Heath
    7(13) Mike Matthews
    7(19) Tre Madden

    Drafted Correctly:
    1(23) Josh Doctson
    2(16) Chris Jones
    3(10) Pharoh Cooper
    4(36) Joe Schobert
    5(8) Matt Ioannidis
    6(16) Keith Marshall
    7(11) Brandon Allen
    UDFA. De'Runnya Wilson (i.e. selected as an UDFA here and correctly predicted not drafted.)

    We hope all of you mock GM's participate. Anyone is welcome. It's fun to see how things end up. Any remaining questions, just PM RTTRUTH or LAOJoe for answers.

    You can copy paste this and use it as your starting point
    Drafted Higher:
    1()
    1()
    2()
    2()
    3()
    3()
    4()
    4()
    5()
    5()
    6()
    6()
    7()
    7()
    UDFA.
    UDFA.
    Completely Ignored.
    Completely Ignored.

    Drafted Lower:
    1()
    1()
    2()
    2()
    3()
    3()
    4()
    4()
    5()
    5()
    6()
    6()
    7()
    7()

    Drafted Correctly:
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    UDFA
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 27, 2023
  2. LAOJoe Assistant Coach Manager Patreon Silver Maple Leafs Eagles

    Drafted Higher:
    1(14) Mac Jones
    1(17) Kwity Paye
    2(16) Jamin Davis
    2(25) Aaron Robinson
    3(32) Kellen Mond
    3(39) Chazz Surratt
    4(28) Cameron McGrone
    4(34) Ar'Darius Washington
    5(17) Jay Tufele
    5(25) Cornell Powell
    6(1) Tutu Atwell
    6(4) Jaelon Darden
    7(1) Marquez Stevenson
    7(26) Shakur Brown
    UDFA. Camryn Bynum
    UDFA. Larry Rountree
    Completely Ignored. Larnel Coleman
    Completely Ignored. Lakia Henry

    Drafted Lower:
    1(11) Jaelen Phillips
    1(28) Travis Etienne
    2(14) Spencer Brown
    2(32) Trey Sermon
    3(21) Jaylen Twyman
    3(28) Trill Williams
    4(13) Charles Snowden
    4(33) Sam Elinger
    5(19) William Bradley-King
    5(24) Carson Green
    6(2) Dicaprio Bootle
    6(15) Max Richardson
    7(6) Donovan Stiner
    7(12) Isaiahh Loudermilk

    Drafted Correctly:
    1(8) Rashawn Slater
    2(10) Liam Eichenberg
    3(31) Marlon Tuipulotu
    4(7) Derrick Barnes
    5(22) Tommy Doyle
    6(21) Simi Fehoko
    7(13) Lorenzo Neal Jr
    UDFA. Riley Patterson
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
  3. RTTRUTH Legend Manager Colts

    Drafted Higher:
    1(21) Alijah Vera-Tucker
    1(16) Jaylen Waddle
    2(7) Asante Samuel Jr
    2(20) Terrace Marshall Jr
    3(19) Eric Stokes
    3(37) Milton Williams
    4(11) Alim McNeill
    4(36) Andre Cisco
    5(38) Brenden Jaimes
    5(28) D'Ante Smith
    6(1) Tutu Atwell
    6(25) Tre Brown
    7(26) Shakur Brown
    7(28) Javian Hawkins
    UDFA Dez Fitzpatrick
    UDFA Camryn Bynum
    Completely Ignored Deommodore Lenoir
    Completely Ignored Tyler Vaughns

    Drafted Lower:
    1(18) Azeez Ojulari
    1(15) Caleb Farley
    2(32) Trey Sermon
    2(30) Stone Forsythe
    3(31) Marlon Tuipulotu
    3(20) Rodarius Williams
    4(16) Michal Menet
    4(33) Sam Ehlinger
    5(14) Shane Buechele
    5(34) Jared Hocker
    6(13) Jerome Johnson
    6(39) Josh Johnson
    7(9) Chris Brown
    7(18) Milo Eifler

    Drafted Correctly:
    (1.10) Patrick Surtain
    (2.6) Landon Dickerson
    3(1) Quinn Meinerz
    4(12) Hunter Long
    5(16) Drew Dalman
    (6.40) Noah Gray
    (7.22) Ben Mason
    UDFA Romeo McKnight
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
  4. TopDawg Legend

    Drafted Higher:
    1(14) Mac Jones
    1(16) Jaylen Waddle
    2(16) Jamin Davis
    2(26) Joe Tryon
    3(2) Levi Onzuwureke
    3(19) Eric Stokes
    4(14) Tommy Togiai
    4(11) Alim McNiel
    5(17) Jay Tufele
    5(29) Tyler Shelvin
    6(4) Jaelan Darden
    6(23) Paris Ford
    7(26) Shakur Brown
    7(29) Jonathan Cooper
    UDFA. Larry Roundtree
    UDFA. Josh Imatorbhebhe
    Completely Ignored. Marquiss Spencer, DT - Miss St.
    Completely Ignored. Austin Fauliu, DT - Oregon

    Drafted Lower:
    1(11) Jaelon Phillips
    1(32) Joseph Ossai
    2(1) Javonte Williams
    2(25) Aaron Robinson
    3(18) Divine Deablo
    3(23) Shawn Wade
    4(26) Tamorrion Terry
    4(33) Sam Ehlinger
    5(16) Drew Dalman
    5(34) Jared Hocker
    6(2) Dicaprio Bootle
    6(42) Jose Borregales
    7(12) Isaiahh Loudermilk
    7(18) Milo Eifler

    Drafted Correctly:
    1(8) Rashawn Slater
    2(5) Gregory Rousseau
    3(13) Baron Browning
    4(7) Derrick Barnes
    5(39) Malcomb Koonce
    6(21) Simi Fehoko
    7(6) Donovan Stiner
    UDFA. Carlo Kemp
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
  5. Campbell Administrator Manager Commissioner

    Drafted Higher:
    1(14) Mac Jones
    1(23) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    2(16) Jamin Davis
    2(26) Joe Tryon
    3(19) Eric Stokes
    3(40) Michael Carter
    4(11) Alim McNeill
    4(36) Andre Cisco
    5(17) Jay Tufele
    5(39) Malcolm Koonce
    6(1) Tutu Atwell
    6(5) Caden Sterns
    7(11) Jason Pinnock
    7(26) Shakur Brown
    UDFA. Demetric Felton
    UDFA. Josh Imatorbhebhe
    Completely Ignored Isaiah Dunn
    Completely Ignored Tre Norwood

    Drafted Lower:
    1(18) Azeez Ojulari
    1(30) Tyson Campbell
    2(8) Jevon Holland
    2(14) Spencer Brown
    3(23) Shaun Wade
    3(28) Trill Williams
    4(4) Chuba Hubbard
    4(15) Cam Sample
    5(3) Tre McKitty
    5(27) Alaric Jackson
    6(28) Drake Jackson
    6(31) Zach Davidson
    7(18) Milo Eifler
    7(19) Mike Strachan

    Drafted Correctly:
    1(24) Najee Harris
    2(7) Asante Samuel
    3(12) Nico Collins
    4(26) Tamorrion Terry
    5(10) Khalil Herbert
    6(16) Larry Borom
    7(1) Marquez Stevenson
    UDFA. Lawrence White
     
  6. StlCrtn Franchise Player Steelers

    Drafted Higher:
    1()
    1()
    2()
    2()
    3()
    3()
    4()
    4()
    5()
    5()
    6()
    6()
    7()
    7()
    UDFA.
    UDFA.
    Completely Ignored.
    Completely Ignored.

    Drafted Lower:
    1()
    1()
    2()
    2()
    3()
    3()
    4()
    4()
    5()
    5()
    6()
    6()
    7()
    7()

    Drafted Correctly:
    1()
    2()
    3()
    4()
    5()
    6()
    7()
    UDFA.
     
  7. RTTRUTH Legend Manager Colts

    @Quew777 please tell me you'll put in a title defending entry. I don't think anyone can truly feel like they've won this thing unless they outscore the great Quew. Likely the only person who will ever hit 3 drafted correct in the same year. I still can't believe that.
     
    LAOJoe likes this.
  8. Quew777 Franchise Player Manager Lions

    That was the draft where the person I was off on drafted correctly ( I was high by a half round) was George Kittle. Would of been nice to have 4 drafted correctly there. Yes the Lions took a TE in that spot (Michael Roberts). I like to see what the theoretical maximum of any board any given year. Not sure how I feel about the challenge until I get in and do it.

    RT are you going to score these or is LAO going to?
     
  9. LAOJoe Assistant Coach Manager Patreon Silver Maple Leafs Eagles

    ouch.
    RT probably is because he is setting up a system during the actual draft where it will be easier to score these so we can bang them out.
     
  10. RTTRUTH Legend Manager Colts

    I will score it this year. I've got a good new system that should allow me to get the results in by the weekend after the draft.
     
    TopDawg likes this.
  11. TopDawg Legend

    Yeah I remember that. Fourth round, nailed it. lol! wth...The "drafted correctly" section is tough, and I think that's where I usually kill my score.

    We'll see. I'll try again. Comin for the title Quew!
     
    RTTRUTH likes this.
  12. TopDawg Legend

    This challenge is a lot of fun to follow as the draft plays out. I'll see if I can get the t-toe to fill out a ballot. No promises.
     
    RTTRUTH likes this.
  13. StlCrtn Franchise Player Steelers

    Draft Value Challenge

    Drafted Higher:
    1(14) Mac Jones
    1(21) Alijah Vera-Tucker
    2(20) Terrance Marshall Jr
    2(23) Jalen Mayfield
    3(39) Chazz Surratt
    3(40) Michael Carter
    4(18) Seth Williams
    4(23) Quincey Roche
    5(31) Victor Dimukeje
    5(32) Trey Hill
    6(5) Caden Stearns
    6(40) Noah Gray
    7(26) Shakur Brown
    7(31) John Bates
    UDFA. Elijah Mitchell
    UDFA. Matt Bushman
    Completely Ignored. Royce Newman
    Completely Ignored. Pooka Williams


    Drafted Lower:
    1(18) Azeez Ojulari
    1(32) Joseph Ossai
    2(12) Jabrill Cox
    2(13)Dillon Radunz
    3(4) Davis Mills
    3(5) Tommy Tremble
    4(1) Dayo Odeyingbo
    4(33) Sam Ehlinger
    5(16) Drew Dalman
    5(23) Tariq Thompson
    6(3) Ernest Jones
    6(11) Brady Breeze
    7(8) Kylen Granson
    7(13) Lorenzo Neal Jr.


    Drafted Correctly:
    1(9) Micah Parsons
    2(7) Asante Samuel Jr.
    3(11) Brevin Jordan
    4(3) Patrick Jones
    5(10) Khalil Herbert
    6(4) Jaelon Darden
    7(22) Ben Mason
    UDFA. Evan McPherson
     
    RTTRUTH likes this.
  14. RTTRUTH Legend Manager Colts

    @Willie

    I feel like you put in an invalid entry last year. Looking at your current entries this one isn't valid either.

    The "Rounds" listed have to be guys who were selected in that round.
    Example:

    Drafted Lower:
    1(Fields)
    1(Chase)
    2(Waddle)
    2 Kelvin Joseph
    3(Smith)
    3 Kellen Mond
    4(Moehrig)
    4Charles Snowden
    5 Tariq Thompson

    Waddle, Smith (assuming DeVonta), and Moehrig were all first rounders in our mock, but you've got them in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round faller slots.
     
    Willie likes this.
  15. StlCrtn Franchise Player Steelers

    I saw that too. I wasn’t sure if he just wasn’t giving anything away or if he wasn’t sure of the rules.
     
  16. Willie Head Coach Manager News & Notes Vikings

    I was confused and unsure of the rules... RTTRUTH's example helped, tho.

    Im going to delete my original post and try over and hope to get it right.

    Sorry and thanks for pointing this out.
     
    RTTRUTH likes this.
  17. Willie Head Coach Manager News & Notes Vikings

    Drafted Higher:
    1.4 Trey Lance
    1.14 Mac Jones
    2.24 Jackson Carman
    2.10 Liam Eichenberg
    3.2 Levi Onwuzurike
    3.10 Aaron Banks
    4.1 Dayo Odeyingbo
    4.3 Patrick Jones
    5.11 Robert Hainsey
    5.2 Shaka Toney
    6.30 Janarius Robinson
    6.23 Paris Ford
    7.27 Amen Ogbongbemiga
    7.20 Paddy Fisher
    UDFA. Sadarius Hutcherson
    UDFA. Michael Boykin
    Completely Ignored. Zech McPhearson
    Completely Ignored. Carlo Kemp

    Drafted Lower:
    1.3 Justin Fields
    1.10 Patrick Surtain
    2.1 Javonte Williams
    2.8 Jevon Holland
    3.1 Quinn Meinerz
    3.6 Daviyon Nixon
    4.12 Hunter Long
    4.17 Josh Palmer
    5.10 Khalil Herbert
    5.1 Kenny Yeboah
    6.2 Dicaprio Bootle
    6.5 Caden Sterns
    7.1 Marquez Stevenson
    7.2 Chauncey Golston

    Drafted Correctly:
    1.10 Patrick Surtain
    2.2 Samuel Cosmi
    3.3 Amari Rodgers
    4.20 Osa Odighizuwa
    5.7 Bobby Brown III
    6.17 Jermar Jefferson
    7.4 K.J. Britt
    UDFA. Dez Fitzpatrick
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
  18. ShanePHallam Special Teams Steelers

    Drafted Higher:

    1(14) Mac Jones

    1(21) Alijah Vera-Tucker

    2(16) Jamin Davis

    2(26) Joe Tryon

    3(2) Levi Onwuzurike

    3(37) Milton Williams

    4(20) Osa Odigizuwa

    4(37) Monty Rice

    5(8) Benjamin St. Juste

    5(20) Dan Moore

    6(1) Tutu Atwell

    6(16) Larry Borom

    7(4) Marquez Stevenson

    7(26) Shakur Brown

    UDFA: Larry Rountree

    UDFA: Zach McPhearson

    Completely Ignored: Marquiss Spencer

    Completely Ignored: Cole Banwart


    Drafted Lower:

    1(11) Jaelan Phillips

    1(15) Caleb Farley

    2(30) Stone Forsythe

    2(32) Trey Sermon

    3(23) Shaun Wade

    3(28) Trill Williams

    4(9) Jamie Newman

    4(30) Israel Mukuamu

    5(14) Shane Buechele

    5(35) Richard LeCounte

    6(2) Dicaprio Bootle

    6(23) Paris Ford

    7(18) Milo Eifler

    7(30) CJ Marable


    Drafted Correctly:

    1(10): Patrick Surtain

    2(22) Pat Freiermuth

    3(18) Divine Deablo

    4(23) Quincy Roche

    5(22) Tommy Doyle

    6(36) Avery Williams

    7(19) Mike Strachan

    UDFA: Jonathan Adams
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2021
    RTTRUTH likes this.
  19. LAOJoe Assistant Coach Manager Patreon Silver Maple Leafs Eagles

    Can't pick a top 7 player for 1st round exact.
    Same for @ShanePHallam
     
    Willie likes this.
  20. ShanePHallam Special Teams Steelers

    Fixed! Thank you, my fault.
     
    LAOJoe likes this.

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