2018 Quarterback Class

2018 NFL Draft Quarterback Class

 

I'll be updating my 2018 rankings for quarterbacks in this thread throughout the year, but after finishing up my opening score on Jake Browning and, I gotta tell ya, it isn't pretty.

These numbers always change throughout the course of the year as I refine the scores and factor in some details that don't go into the first raw numbers, but when they move it's rarely a huge change. It's more like a shift from one class to another.

In Browning's case, his first score on my chart for 2018 has him with a low third, high fourth round grade. I'll have to go back and look later this week but that might be the lowest opening grade on what has been suggested as a possible first round pick that I have ever recorded, and that includes prior to making changes in the system that we use in 2012.

Off of memory, the most I can remember a quarterback shifting stock upwards after the first chart of scoring was two full rounds so it is possible that Browning could still end up with a low first, high second round grade. That was definitely the exception to the rule though as most quarterbacks that trend up or down have probably averaged around 1 full round.

 

Like I said in the Steelers Draft thread, I'm cautious on UDub QBs. I like my "eye-test" on Falk and Rudolph though.

 

Falk is going to score well with GMs and scouts alike for his field vision, body technique and patience. His arm strength will be questioned, and it will be red-flagged because of his speed in progressions and passes that come in late because of it. A passer that has a cannon can take a little longer deciding where he wants to go and the speed at which the ball reaches it's target will help prevent tips, interceptions and passes behind the target. A quarterback with middling velocity needs to be ahead of his progressions at all times to create an extra 1/2 second for the ball to come out and still avoid late throws.

With that in mind, Rudolph may have a slight edge on Falk when it's all said and done with. Mason tends to diagnose and make decisions pre-snap that shorten up his amount of progressions. It keeps him slightly ahead of the defense. Anytime the ball comes out quicker regardless of arm strength it limits the chances for turnovers and dead passes.

 

Is there a reason Will Grier (WVU) isn't on the list above? He is probably the 3rd best QB in his conference (behind Rudolph and Mayfield), so that could be one reason. Hmph, I see Baylor's QB on the board. Now that I think about it, Grier is a junior. Maybe he's slated to go in 2019. Do you look at or make considerations for players that far away from D-Day?

 

My initial list of 'possibles' comes from the rumor mill. I basically look for players that may be coming out or have a higher likelihood so you will notice a large jump in the total number of players (all positions) right after everyone announces.

 

Makes sense. Thx!

 

Scott would be Matt's dad and Mark is Brett's uncle.

 

Tim with the research. Nice.

Going to be a heavily scrutinized and relied-upon crop in the NFL, when it's all said and done. Should be an exciting year to see their seasons play out.

 

I knew about Rypien, but not Linehan... didn't connect the dots on that one.

 

I'm still not sure what to think of this draft. Overall it looks really weak. Lots of draftable lottery picks though. People said last year was weak. I disagreed as the 1st round talent was legit IMO with a couple late gems (mainly Peterman) or decent career backups. But man teams looking forward to this year may have it tough. Scouts are gonna have to be on point.

 

Tim that may be the lowest I've seen Clayton Thorson. Some have him as a possible 1st rounder. What do you think of him specifically?

 

Still way too early for me to give any kind of definitive opinion on these guys. I have certain players that I have been following closer over the course of more than one season that I would feel comfortable giving an elongated answer on, but Thorson doesn't fit that category.

These first scores are off of a baseline metric that I use prior to weighing individual ones with multipliers. The best example of just how baseline this score is - it does not include 'anticipation accuracy', which is one of my most weighted factors.

Thorson graded evenly over the first round with no glaring red flags, but also no exclamation points. It will be interesting to see how far some of the names that snuck up in the list fall, and how far some at the bottom move. There's a sizeable drop from Lagow to Browning, and then another sizeable drop from Thorson to Barnett. From Barnett down, I cannot see a scenario where they get a rating other than 'undraftable'. Clay to Browning fits in a range from middle 5th to low 3rd. It's actually a decent bracket for early scores which brings me to this -

Are you saying that you think this quarterback class is weak or the draft overall?

For quarterbacks, right now I believe there could be up to 10 players that can carve out a chance to work as a starter in the NFL, with a surprising 7 that may get a chance early in their careers. Now, some of that is based on what we will see in the league so far as openings and chances to compete go, but some of that is based simply on the talent available compared to the age of certain starters. At some point there will be players from this class that will get a chance even if it's not with the team that selected them.

 

There are many draftable QBs. But many might seem to be more day 2 talents that get bumped up due to the position and need. Also many that have some nice red flags. I need to look at them way more. It's still early. But right now the QB class might be weak at the top, even if they go earlier. I have yet to see any QB I think had a better chance than the top 4 drafted this year. And I'm ignoring hindsight. Opportunities are definitely there to be had but I wonder if there are any future mainstays for the drafting team. At least for guys graded in the 1st round in most places. Some guys expected to go day 2 like Mayfield might end u being the best option even.

 

The red is what sticks out because it is the most important question.

If I had to make a bet on how many will definitely be starting on a roster for more than 3 seasons I can only say two, and that would be Rosen and Allen because of their raw physical tools. Those factors alone will have their teams trying to make it work for at least the immediate future. After that, it's all going to be about the situation.

If we are assuming that Kirk Cousins ends up in San Fran then these jobs will likely be filled early on draft day -
Jets
Cardinals
Browns
Redskins

Then there will be teams that will likely be taking one at some point, possibly early -
Chargers
Jaguars
Dolphins
Bills
Steelers
Ravens
Saints
Giants

That's a dozen total, with the possibility of every one of them having an opening either immediately or within two seasons. I think there's an outside shot that 6 could be selected in the first with odds on 3 being the minimum. There could be as many as 8 (total) gone by the end of day two.

 

@Tim ...

Is Ryan Finley this year's Mitch Trubisky (the darkhorse who comes out of nowhere to land in the first round)?

https://247sports.com/college/north...football-PFF-Colleges-rankings-thro-109008948

 

I have him listed with the 2019 prospects and haven't scouted him beyond a couple passing glances, but other than him being a bit slight of frame I can't recall any immediate red flags.

Is there anything on him entering this year's draft?

 

Other than being draft-eligible, not that I've heard. He's flown way under the radar. But he's had big wins this season over Florida State (#12) and Louisville (#17) and gets Notre Dame (#9) and Clemson (#7) in the next two weeks.

He's a red-shirt junior and if this QB continues to look shaky, he'd do well to give up that last year of eligibility.

 

My interest is more in having seen the recent PFF.com rankings. My personal rankings, non-analytic-driven, tend to align more with analytic rankings (love Mayfield - #1 and Jackson - #5, hate Darnold - outside Top 25) and hadn't really seen or heard anything about Finley before.

 

I'll add him to the list for this season and have him ranked in the second round.

That should be out sometime around December second.