2016 NFL Draft - The Quarterbacks

I will try to get to one or two per day...


First up:

Paxton Lynch - Memphis Tigers, RS Junior (declared on January 1st)
6'7" 245 lbs, will be 22 years old at draft time

Stats for 2015
passing;
296 comp on 443 attempts, 66.8%, 3778 yards, 28 TDs 4 INTs
rushing;
87 attempts 239 yards, 2.7 ypa, 2 TDs

My evaluation:
I watched 5 games, a little over an hour of game film

I see a QB with perfect size for the NFL, quick release, moves pretty well for his size...BUT, terrible footwork, I mean a complete reboot when he gets a professional coach. He will need to tweak his release as the ball comes off without follow through, weakening his throws. He seems to find the receiver, but doesn't go to more than two reads, only seems to read half the field. Throws much better on roll out than in the pocket.

Lynch started out as my #1 prospect. Now that I have watched his tape more closely, I see him as a second round prospect, that will most likely go in the top ten of the draft because someone will fall in love with his size.


Next up, Sammy's guy, Jared Goff (I will try to get to him later tonight)

 

Spot on, Irish. Lynch has everything you want physically, but isn't ready to be an NFL QB. He throws to his first read almost exclusively, and if he does throw to his second, you're right in that he's not moving across the field. He needs a ton of work and refinment. Add to it that he'll have to get comfortable in an NFL offense, under center, not constantly spread out... You're 100% that some team will take him based on potential, rather than what he is and likely will be. Hopefully, neither the Bears nor Browns are that team (unless we're praying for him to change, and we're ready to wait several years).

 

This quarterback class will possibly see more than one day 2/day 3 pick at the position develop into a pro quarterback with some career longevity.

The hype will be on Goff, Cook and Lynch. I believe there are three mid round prospects that have as much potential as the above mentioned 3.

 

Agreed. I'm sure you'll tell us later in wise, prophetic fashion, but which three QB's are you thinking might be future starters? I'm going to presume Hackenberg is on that list.

 

No, Hackenberg is not on that list. Of all the quarterbacks in this draft class it was Hackenberg, whom without a doubt, did the most damage to his draft stock this season. He really has no choice but to declare for the draft, however his value now compared to last season is night and day. I have a lot of questions about his awareness.

Now that the draft order is set I will have mocks and rankings coming out over the next few weeks, but one of the three (in no particular order) is Jacoby Brissett.

 

Interesting. I'll be digging into the scouting progressively, so I'm looking forward to talking this all over with you. My initial impressions of Hackenberg are that he's smart, he's just got such inconsistent mechanics, and thus accuracy. But I've only watched a game or two on him.

Jacoby Brissett, huh? I haven't watched too much film on him so far, but I really wish he had another year in college. He needs that time and development, because there is talent there. I actually taught him in high school. He's a good kid, considering the environment at the school. He could have easily turned out an egotistical basket case, like most of his teammates have, but he's kept a relatively even head, from what I've been told. He's also the only one to have had any time or practice in the instrumental music field... Coincidence? I think not...

Looking forward to you dropping some draft prospect bombs on us, soon. Good stuff.

 

I like that inside dig on Brissett, good stuff dline. *THUMBSUP*

It's just starting to get into my favorite time of year. Everybody has an opinion, nobody agrees and the conversations take wild turns to somewhere and nowhere all at the same time. All the hard hitters will be out in full force soon. I'm looking forward to it. *DRINK*

 

Yeah, it was my first year teaching at that particular school, his senior year. Let's just say that, while I was showing him some technique on a snare drum during pre-pre-game warmups, his teammates were taking golf carts for laps around the field... A number of those teammates have either burned out on their path through football, or are well on their way to doing so. He was a good dude, from the time I got to work with him. I wish him a lot of luck.

Yessir. Cheers to that.

 

To be honest Irish I don't think any of the top QB prospects in this draft are much better third round developmental picks.( admittedly I haven't watched as much film as others). There isn't a single one I'd feel more comfortable starting over Conner Shaw (that is if he can stay healthy) next year. Which scares me. *HELP*

I fear that whomever comes in will either sell the next three drafts to trade for someone, or waste another top pick on a guy that may or may not develop into a guy to build around.

 

Try this website: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/

It'll give you just the plays of the individual and provides a good tool to watch a lot of game film for only a few minutes of your time.

Interesting take on the "developmental third rounders" comment... the top two guys have routinely been given Top 15 grades, with Goff the No. 1 ranked guy. Then every season, there always seems to be a guy who climbs from the 2-3 rounds well into the first.

Conner Shaw won't even make the roster next year. He's at best the sixth rated QB the Browns are carrying (which includes Terrelle Pryor, but not Billy Manziel).

Why would they need to trade for anyone? They have the No. 2 overall pick and the team in front of them doesn't need to draft a QB. And no one is going to give up the three first round picks that have become a requisite for moving up to draft a QB.

 

I have to admit that (maybe) a month ago, I was leaning towards Paxton Lynch over Jared Goff. This was based solely on highlight clips that I had watched. At the time, I thought that maybe Billy Manziel [good one Sam] had turned the corner so I didn't spend a lot of time watching college QB's.

Then I watched both of their bowl games and, like Irish, Lynch is no where close to Goff.

 

There's a lot to like about Goff. A three-year starter with excellent accuracy, good arm strength, nice mobility, and an impressive resume (broke Mariota's PAC-10 TD record). Does a really nice job throwing guys open, but a lot of that comes from shorter timing routes in the offense he plays.

There's also some concerns. He played in the shotgun almost exclusively, so if the Browns are determined to have their QB under center, he's going to need a lot of seasoning there. From what I've seen, he doesn't always set his feet to throw, instead trusting his arm. That's fine for the PAC-10, not okay for the NFL game.

 

Jared Goff - Cal Golden Bears, Junior (declared)
6'4" 215 lbs, will be 21 years old at draft time

Stats for 2015
passing;
341 comp on 529 attempts, 64.5%, 4719 yards, 43 TDs 13 INTs
rushing;
56 attempts -8 yards, -.1 ypa, 0 TDs

My evaluation:
I watched 4 games, about an hour of game film

OK, the good..He has GREAT footwork (but only sometimes), he seems to be able to read the defense, great with timing short to intermediate pass patterns, leads the receiver open, steps into throws (but only sometimes), has really good pocket presence, Maybe most important..he seems unfazed by pressure. HOWEVER, He gets erratic at times, many of his balls float, I see a LOT of turnovers in this young mans future.

Again, I see a borderline first round talent in flashes, but overall body of work I would put more at a 2nd round talent. In this draft, I think he will ultimately deserve to be a first round draft pick, but until I do my complete ranking, I don't know where he will fall...unfortunately for us, if we want him, we will have to take him at #2 overall, I can think of at least 5 players off the top of my head that I would rank ahead of him, but at this point we are desperate for a QB and will most likely over pick him. I just don't see enough to think he will ultimately be a successful starter in the NFL. I would NOT bet on him..

Next up, Connor Cook

 

Connor Cook - Michigan State Spartans, Redshirt Senior
6'4" 218 lbs, will be 23 years old at draft time

Stats for 2015
passing;
229 comp on 408 attempts, 56.1%, 3131 yards, 24 TDs 7 INTs
rushing;
52 attempts 56 yards, 1 ypa, 0 TDs

My evaluation:
I watched 4 games, about an 40 minutes of game film

The most pro style I have watched so far, though he is only the 3rd. He seems to understand defenses, seems to scan the entire field and CAN BE accurate with throws...but not often enough.

He throws at the receiver rather than to a spot. This is way too easily defensed and it will only get worse in the NFL. He has nice footwork, works the pocket well, and actually I see pretty good mechanics...unfortunately, they haven't improved in 3 years which leads me to believe his work ethic leaves much to be desired. As a 5th year Senior, he wasn't elected as a captain of his team..That right there is enough to tell me stay away from this kid...

Next up, Christian Hackenberg

 

Thanks I will check it out.

That may be SAS, there are always guys who go through their workouts and move up the draft board.
IMHO there isn?t a QB declared for the upcoming draft that I would put a first round grade on.

Not trying to say that Conner Shaw is the QB that will save this team. Just my humble opinion on this year?s QB class. At this point I don?t see any of the top ranked QB?s as anything special. I may change my mind after watching more film.

IMHO there isn?t a QB declared for the upcoming draft that I feel is worthy of the 2nd overall pick. Sure there are always a few guys that move up based on workouts and such. It is likely that whomever comes in and takes over will use this pick to get ?their? guy. Pickings are pretty slim this year.

My fear in trading is that whomever Haslam Hires may go after someone on another roster and end up giving up way too much to get ?their? guy. I guess I?m just preparing myself for anything and everything that will happen in the next few months of hitting the reset button? again?

 

Christian Hackenberg - Penn State Nittany Lions, Junior
6'4" 234 lbs, will be 21 years old at draft time

Stats for 2015
passing;
192 comp on 359 attempts, 53.5%, 2525 yards, 16 TDs 6 INTs
rushing;
66 attempts -80 yards, -1.2 ypa, 2 TDs

My evaluation:
I watched 3 games from 2015 and the Buckeyes game of 2014, about an 35 minutes of game film

Very inconsistent, does fine on short quick throws, but is easily rattled, especially in blitzing situations which cause him to make poor decisions. Does seem to read the field when he has time to throw, but it doesn't make up for inaccuracies in his throwing. Many blamed his WRs for his misfortunes, I simply don't see it. He doesn't help his receivers to have a good opportunity to catch the ball. It may be the system, as he was forced into a spread offense, but his mechanics don't seem like they would translate even if put into a pro system.

I think he will throw well in shorts, when there isn't any pressure. That combined with his size will get him drafted in the 2nd/3rd round, hopefully NOT on this Browns roster.

Next up, Carson Wentz

 

I appreciate the QB breakdowns Irish....nice work.

I'm expecting the Browns to give up on Manziel. It's sad. He's an alcoholic. We all know the absurd details. He hasn't really left us much of a choice. I'm not sure if the Browns will cut him loose or try to trade him, but I believe he's worn out his welcome in C-town.. So unfortunately I believe Cleveland will have to spend pick #2 of this draft on Goff. I too see him as more of a late first or second round talent, but can the Browns really risk trading down? I seriously doubt it....Goff played well in the 2 or 3 games I watched Cal play this year, and I've heard his name being whispered around here since early September. There are players at other positions that certainly would be less risky, but I'm not sure the Browns can afford to NOT take the risk....and the cycle continues.

The really sad thing is, ya just know this off-season will be Johnny's "Chris Carter - like" wake up call, and he will develope into a star QB elsewhere with an all new professional attitude. smh...Not sure if he'll be "HoF" great, but if he ever gets focused he can be really good, and I can see him thanking the Cleveland Browns someday for cutting him and making him finally "get it"......I'd think it would surprise nobody that has followed the fate of this franchise, if it played out exactly like that.....

 

TD,

You REALLY need to go out and adopt a Unicorn.

{edit} (I forgot this . . . . . . .)

 

I know TD, IF they are going to go QB in the 1st, it has to be Goff and it has to be at #2...I just see that as a major reach with only a handful of what I would consider impact players in this draft...a few of which may be available closer to 10 than 2 overall...

I am getting depressed watching this QB game film to be honest...I haven't seen a single guy that I would rank higher than Brian Hoyer...Just to refresh everyone's memory, Brian was an undrafted Free Agent Rookie...Of course he has outplayed his UDFA status, but it still doesn't say much to what I have seen from this rookie class.

 

lol! Seriously Lym, your avatar says it all. My little "johnny" scenario is EXACTLY the kind of thing that would happen to team that is so inept that their own fans wear grocery bags on their heads....I know you don't believe in Johnny, but knowing the way things go for this franchise, you wouldn't be that surprised if it played out that way, would ya?