NFL - Random Opinions

This lacks all context of the conversation we were having and omits some key points -

To date - Jimmy G has continued to struggle with the deep ball since his injury. At this point, it's clear that he will probably never return to the player he was before that.

However, that doesn't change anything that we discussed this offseason. Everything that I posted above is still accurate.

Right now, the Niners have 458 YAC after 4 games (115 per). That's good for 11th in the league. They are 13th in the league for passes over 25 yards. When they are inside the 20, they are 19th in the league for attempts, and when they are inside the 10 they are 16th.

In other words - They are on the lower end of attempts, but still the higher end of YAC, slightly above the mean on passes over 25 and below the Mendoza line when it comes to trying to fit passes into tight windows when the field condenses.

McCaffrey has nearly 100 more rushing yards than the next closest rusher with 459 and is tied for the league lead with 6 TDs.

The offense simply pours through the ground game and the high percentage short passing attack. The open deep shots are directly afforded as an opportunity because of how efficient they are on the ground and with the open short pass.

I respect the effort to circle back and try to prove a point through previous conversation, but when you look at the discussion as a whole, this doesn't accomplish that.

And, to reconfirm - None of what I am posting is a slight on Brock. He's simply doing what he is being asked to do within the offense, and not being forced to play beyond some of his capabilities.

But, to the original point of the conversation, there are several other passers in the league that could likely do the same within the same situation, which circles back to this -

The thing is - that's the whole discussion. Isn't it?

You can't say that a player is the sum of his situation. It's what he does within that situation compared to how his play would be within another, and what another player in his situation would be capable of accomplishing.

That's really the whole point of what we are discussing here, so even though I understand your point, to remove this part of the equation is to kill the entire point of the conversation.

I'll throw this to you again, because you were definitely closer to the mark than I was -

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This is a bit rushed, and I don't have time to hit on the Lamar stuff right now, but I didn't want to leave you hanging for a couple days (gonna be short on time, again..).

 

As I said before Brock is in the perfect spot. Good coaching and game planning, great skill players, very good online and a great defense. It allows him to look like a great QB. Brock makes good decisions but he rarely has to play from behind making his job easier. How many teams could you drop Brock on and he still.lookd good? I think he is still successful in Philly maybe Miami and while not as successful looking maybe the Chiefs. Doesn't have the talent in KC but Andy would put a solid game plan ahead of him. Now the flip side how many QBs could you flip onto the 49ers and they still roll. Obviously any of the top guys on the 49ers roll (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen and Hurts). Herbert and Tua keep it rolling. They are still cruising with Stafford, Jackson, Lawrence and Cousins. So that's 10 already. How does Dak or Fields look with the 49ers? Odds are both very good as often their big mistakes tem from trying to do to much something they aren't going to have to do with the 49ers. Now it can get dicey.

Carr or Brock? On the 49ers I think Carr looks like the QB some thought he could be.

Watson has more talent than Brock and again you're dropping him on a team surrounded by more talent than ever before.

That's 14 Goff went to a SB with the rams and has the Lions in the country contender talk. No doubt he would do the same with SF.

Geno and Tannehill? Probably going Brock over these 2 because basically they would be asked to do what Brock is already doing.

Stroud? He looked good with the Texans and a lot less talent.

I might have missed someone but Brock probably ahead of the rest of the league

Now Brock may very well win a SB and possibly 2 as long as he is on his rookie contract. If he plays cheap they can contend even longer but if he gets Top tier QB money and you can't keep the pieces around him they will start to fade quickly.

That's my 2 cents which is worth even less today than it used to be.

 

I love my fellow Steelers fans I truly do but on multiple multiple fan sites I'm seeing post of make Big Ben the new OC. Why? What in his past makes anyone think he would be a good OC. Not once during his career was he known as a cerebral QB. He also played a large part in both Fichtner and Canada being named as the OCs. The man has mud between his ears and would likely somehow be worse than Canada.

 

Aaron Rogers said that he thought Ben would make a good OC . I thought about Ben’s study habits as a QB and almost blew chunks thinking about it.

 

If Ben could run out to the huddle and draw a play up in the dirt, he'd be ok

EditJ/K.

 

Do not worry, its clips like this that seal the Ravens fate Steelers win Sunday

 

@Campbell since we seem to be delving back deeper into the Garoppolo debate from eariler on, i feel the need to point out i left a lot on the table with that discussion. Maybe something else came up but mostly it was prob cos our discussions which are the most interesting to me are the ones where we state a position/make future calls, and then see how it shakes out over time without getting into one-upmanship. You've nailed many calls in the past, one of my favs being getting waaaay out in front of the Anthony Lynn/Chargers firing. Those are great, if i want endless circular debates i can always go to patg on the Bears board heh.

That said, I am gonna have to clap back a little here because as far as Garopplo's concerned a narrative is being crafted that simply isnt rooted in reality.

He was the highest ranked deep ball thrower in 2019, top 10 in 2020 and has some high accuracy metrics to go along with those numbers. The shoulder injury may have snapped that away from him, or he may be playing himself back into health. It's a large unknown that we're going to have to wait for an answer on.

First, he played 6games in 2020, extrapolating that into a whole season is a tad misleading. I know we're less than that into this season with your list and all, but this we're doing in real time, not retrospectively, so in that sense its different.

Also, re 2019, i assume you have your own reference to back this up cos i know you're not the type who makes shit up. Here's mine, and he doesnt even make the top10 let alone be #1.

Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson headline NFL's top 10 deep passers

Now i hope/expect you will be sharing your reference in the next post, but interesting thing about mine is this vvvv

"The fine folks embedded in the Next Gen Stats bunker took the time to poke their heads above the blinking lights and buttons to tell me this metric was designed to best capture how well a quarterback is playing when also considering the surrounding circumstances".

Given what we've been discussing about "situation" and the 9ers offense, i consider what i've just provided to be an incredibly pure metric. And Jimmy G aint on it. Furthermore, Garoppolo isnt and never has been the best deep ball throw in the league. You know that, i know that, we all know it. Some things i think we can all just engage some common sense about.



You have me a bit lost on the YAC numbers. Brock and Jimmy have a near identical statistical split. Brock had 706 in 5 games, and Jimmy had 1446 in 10. That indicates to me that the scheme induced similar results on the short and intermediate regardless of who was behind the center. < That last point favors your overall argument, but it goes against what I think you are implying.

If you look at them on the whole, statistically, most of the numbers line up with the idea that the system dictates how productive they can be. Jimmy had better yards per game, Brock a better TD percentage, Jimmy a better INT percentage, and nearly everything else is within a margin of error.

I don't think you can take this season as anything more than a guy, that was thrown into a shit circumstance, finding a way to continue to win games.

I need the record to state here that in this passage you're comparing a long established 9year vet who had spent 6years in Kyle Shannahan's system, with a rookie who's career to date was 9games! And you say im lacking context?(!). Holy hell. Now, i know we're taking system into account here, but sorry, but this isnt a video game where the next character just gets inserted into the lineup.

We know what Jimmy G is from our eyes. We know it from him never even cracking the top in passer rating his entire time as a 9er while Purdy leads the league. We know it from the fact the 9ers paid a king's ransom in the draft to get off Garoppolo in 2021. That was right after the two years of apparent deep ball & high accuracy metrics, and before the injury card.

Garoppolo isn't doing crap in Las Vegas cos he's not a very good QB. And thats despite working with a good offensive mind and having a top3 in the league WR. Its early, but nothing he's doing in LV is surprising to me.

Just speaking for myself here, NO! lol.

If I make a list comparing players, I base a lot of it on what they've actually done. That necessitates it being predicated to a large extent on where they are. Thats my approach, and its the one actually rooted in something.

Your approach, i dont know how else to describe it, seems to be based around guessing games. You can have the qualifier that x player is in the most QB friendly offense in history, but if you're gonna say that what he's accomplished is no better(and presumably worse in many cases) than *insert player y from "top16"*, sorry, but its just guessing.

And FTR, i have no problem with that if thats how some of you want to spend your time. By all means you, jeanquev(i already dropped it a like) and anyone else, give your opinion with no basis other than anyone can play in said system. Based on this i guess the tacit take away i have from Tim's list is that he thinks there are at least 16 other QB's who would be leading the league in passer rating right now if only they were on the 9ers squad. I mean right? I never knew the mental abilities of QB play could be so marginalised, all you need is the right system.

Either way Tim, it seems we've been coming at your list from two different ends and since its your list i'll take my cue to step away heh.

Thanks but its cool. Like i said, it wasnt meant to be looking for credit or one-upping, we dont do that. My initial comment accompanying Geno was simply cos i know approx how highly you rate him, and the second was just stating where i got my opinion on that from. And as with many of our attempts at future prognosticating, the final chapter hasn't been written yet. Geno may yet turn out to be a bad investment by the Seahawks, we'll just wait to see how it plays out.

 

It was definitely from an analytics site, and no, I don't just post shit without first researching it. lol

When I have more time I will try and look it up (might even have it in the notebook from when we first discussed it).

EDIT:
Yep, it was in the notebook:

Looking at what I have, the original post probably should have read 2019-20, because I am not seeing anything written down specifically for the 2020 season.

According to NFL.com he had a 53% rate which was good for the #1 spot in 2019.

PFF had him with a higher percentage and ranked him #1 - 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo was NFL’s most accurate deep passer last season – NBC Sports Bay Area & California

He was tied for 4th in completion percentage (69.1) and his advance metric placed him in the top 10 for accuracy on the year (had to be the point of my original post). He was in the top 5 for avoiding bad passes, 11 overall for on target, 4th overall for on target percentage, and had to deal with the third highest drop rate in the NFL (numbers can be found on pro football reference).

The only 2020 reference that I have here is from an opinion article with PFF that had him as 8th f(deep ball) or the entire season in 2019, but the article is dated in 2020. I'm assuming that's where I got the '2020 top 10' from because he simply didn't play enough in 2020 to qualify for most metrics.

Quickly researching after his injury:

Post-injury in 2022, he was ranked 25th for deep ball accuracy.

His overall advanced metrics have never rebounded to the pre 2020 numbers.

This is also based on a hypothetical - "the main metric we'll use for this exercise is completion percentage above expectation"

So, they are basing it on their opinion of what should and shouldn't be caught, and creating a vastly different ranking than one based off of actual completion percentage.

Depending on the evaluator pre-draft, he was not considered to be a high-level deep ball thrower coming out. He did have success with it early in his career, and his numbers back that up.

His struggles since 2021 are obvious though, and whatever success he had with it early are long in the rearview mirror.

No, I'm saying the context for quoting me on the past discussion was lacking.

I took the time to frame it accurately to what we were discussing back then, and then I broke down the current numbers so that the whole of the conversation was available.

You are gonna have to miss me with that 'good offensive mind'. The guy is going to be fired by the end of 2024 because he is simply not the coach that everyone wants him to be.

And you have no argument from me about the current Jimmy G. He's not the guy he was when he first arrived to SF.

You yourself referenced an article to make your point that was based on completion hypotheticals, so I guess 'guessing' is not confined to just one aspect of the discussion.

Come on, Ev. The second part of this is uncalled for and is discrediting for no other reason than you disagreeing with my opinion.

Yes, you base it on what they have done, but you also take into consideration their circumstances when making those accomplishments.

There is always going to be a certain amount of projection when it comes to making rankings, and a lot of it is subjective to the person that is giving the opinion having certain biases. This entire conversation was kicked off by my statement that the 49ers are winning with a bottom 16 passer, meaning I don't personally have him ranked in the top 16 at his position. It's a completely reasonable opinion that has now turned into a Jimmy G thing that wasn't even mentioned until you brought it up.

For the record - I stand by everything I originally posted this offseason in our discussion.

You know that is not what I am saying. What I am saying is an obvious truth in the NFL - If you have a good fit in an offense for a quarterback he is going to excel. We have seen countless quarterbacks over the years get drafted into situations that simply did not fit their skill set and they struggled because of it.

None of that is news.

I enjoy our discussions, Ev. Though this one does feel like you are taking it a bit more personally.

I'll look more into the discussion with Lamar if we are closing the book on this, for the moment.

 

Riding the pine (where I spent my entire baseball career from 6 to 18 yo)) I just want to say that Tim and Ev, you two have and are providing very good stuff for me to read. Its educational to me and makes me think and I appreciate that. Its nice to see 2 people discuss things even when in disagreement and not resort to cheapshots and rudeness. Im always amazed at the knowledge people on this site can articulate in discussion... just wanted to say that, not meant to inflate egos, but just a sideline comment.

Spoiler

PS, your both full of shit... im kidding, im kidding, please forgive me

 

The early games are quite boring arent they. At least, to this neutral they are. I guess the Colts-Titans is a game but im uninterested.

This wasnt meant in an insulting way, sorry if it came across like that, my comment about guessing games was meant literally. If you're gonna compare/rank players based on pure un-knowables, like what player x would do on player y's team, especially when player x has never played in coach y's offense before, then yes, there is a great deal of guessing going on there. It may be a very educated guess when player x is Mahomes or a couple others. What about the other 13 guys who arent nearly as bankable, who had good years and bad? There's an enormous amount of projection there, and those projections are also heavily influenced by our own personal biases.

The thing is - that's the whole discussion. Isn't it?
You can't say that a player is the sum of his situation. It's what he does within that situation compared to how his play would be within another, and what another player in his situation would be capable of accomplishing.

So none of this is meant in a dick way, but the underlined is the crux of whats been debated here so we're gonna have to play it out vvvv

If you're gonna do justice to something like this, you can't just single out Purdy. There's plenty other QB's playing in good situations, we've gotta compare them to the other 15 in isolation each time. Actually, if we're grading fairly then we can just limit it just to good situations, we have to include all 16 situations. So we've got the top 16players(for purpose of this calculation i''ll leave out Purdy), and for each player there will be 15 other situations to compare to. Thats 240 comparisons, using your method(i told you this was a rabbit hole).

For the few top echelon players this will be pretty quick and easy ie Dak Prescott would 99.999% not be better than Mahomes if he were in KC. But the list has a vast majority of guys where trying to do this comparison would just be a big bowl of spaghetti. And even IF you last it out, and do all those comparisons, its still all unprovable cos its all based on your personal biases and very very little actual data. Jeanquev we're gonna need another 15 posts from you now please

Of course, a sane person isnt doing all that. Maybe they say they are, but then maybe they're only doing it to Purdy and therein lies the rub. Its very easy pull this stunt on Purdy and the 9ers. You've got a great offensive scheme, you've got a QB with lesser physical traits/measurables, oh and he happened to be the last guy picked in the draft. Of course its Shannahan, of course any other QB could step in and do that. Ok, but now do Lamar, then Cousins, Goff, Dak etc etc.

We are in total agreement on this. "Fit" matters enormously. Maybe it even matters the most tbh(?). The difference is im recognising that you'll never really know the fit until you try it. Trying to say what the fit will be and then comparing to other players whos fit you've also decided, is imo, utterly pointless. Grading should be done based on what you know, not what you don't know.

Good point, ha ha.

Few people have a lower opinion of Josh McDaniels than me. He was a total douchebag in Denver and after what he pulled in Indy he never should've got another HC gig again(further proof that if you're a white coach in this league there's always another opportunity, but thats another discussion). And he's been total dog crap in LV.

The guy is absolutely not HC material. I must concede i do think he has some scheme chops tho, more than a bunch of guys i've seen in this league. That was what i meant previously.

Me too buddy, genuinely. This hasnt been me taking it personally, it has been me confused at times. The goalposts have moved at times throughout this discussion i feel. But as my wife has muttered many a time while im lying there smoking a cigarette, maybe the next one will be better!

 

Haha. Can you jump in with this comment earlier next time Will!

 

Think the colts ownership is saying crap Moss you couldn't have done that last week before we paid Taylor.

 

Cardinals looking good against the Bengals. Bengals hold a slim 10-7 lead

 

Cardinals take the lead. Dobbs looking good. Looks like the Cardinals finally have found their HC. Does Kyler Murray get his job back when/if he comes off PUP?

Also I really like their black uniforms lol

 

Nice to see that classic Broncos logo at midfield.

 

Logo looks good, the white helmets just look wrong to me though. Should be the classic blue

 

I never single out one guy when I put together my rankings. I single them all out, cause that's the point.


And the ones that I threw to RT to prove a reasonable 16 ahead of him was put together long before this discussion began, and that was a baseline for an end of season ranking projection, so it definitely wasn't predicated on ranking only Purdy.

It's actually a combination of both, with most of the bias (personally) coming from scouting the player and knowing some of their strengths/weaknesses prior to them entering the league.

The stats are readily available if you want to match them up with what another offense does well.

Don't know about my sanity, that's probably questionable...

But for the rest of it - It's not that difficult to factor in a lot of variables if you are looking at it from multiple angles from the beginning.

It would be laborious for someone that doesn't regularly review their own information or look at new info to confirm/deny their previous opinions. But if you spend a lot of time involved in these kinds of conversations, and personal review of projections, it really isn't that big of a lift.

If a person wanted to start their own comparison chart - Just start with the base set of head coach type, offense type, and what the players strengths are, and you will have some instant takes on who would fit where and with an idea of what degree of success. You can build on that quickly by glancing at the depth chart, offensive coordinator and previous season's base stats.

Plus, you get a feel for what teams are good and bad at just by paying attention to them throughout the season. Since I'm not aligned with any one team, I tend to look more at all of them then some people do. Add into the idea that I enjoy tracking players after they are drafted to see whether or not I was right about what skills would translate and which one wouldn't, the groundwork for putting together an opinion on player fits and who would do better somewhere else is already laid out.

It's the reason I add in preferred destinations when I am discussing passers being drafted. The fit matters for success, so I am looking at it before most of these guys are ever drafted.

You're looking for an absolute when it's obviously not feasible, which is why you have to use a combination of statistics, relative scheme ideals and your own judgement when doing an exercise like this.

If not, what you are basically doing is ranking the offense, the team or the coach with the passer by proxy.

But I'm good with disagreeing on whether or not it's worth it, or whether or not it's something that can be viewed as reliably accurate.

And I'm also good with simply disagreeing on this point.

Nah, I'm nothing if not consistent with where I come from on this stuff (hence, the notebooks), but you came into the discussion from the bleachers with a different view of it then what the original dialogue was with RT, and with most of the context unavailable to get into it.

So, basically, there's nothing for us to discuss here because we disagree with the 'how' of viewing/ranking passers at the foundational level.

No big deal.

 

Im of the opinion that football, especially the purple kind is hazardous to my health.

 

Thats one way to stop McCaffrey, poke his eye out and grab a handful of facemask.