I also love all the critique in some of these draft grades saying the Falcons should have upgraded at QB. For everyone in the media, it's not rocket science. On offense, Arthur Smith is establishing an IDENTITY. He doesn't care that the whole world knows his game plan. Atlanta is going to run the ball. Then they'll run it some more. And then for a change of pace, they'll run. Identity When they do choose to throw, Desmond Ridder made solid progress throughout his four starts. The eye-popping stat is that he had a 112.9 passer rating on third down throws. And he did that without Kyle Pitts. He also has 4.52 speed and had 28 rushing touchdowns in college.
Actually, Kiper only graded 4 teams as A or A-, and only 4 teams as B-. The rest of the league was split between B+ and B. So he's rating Pittsburgh as the upper half of the middle of the pack, while Atlanta is the bottom of the barrel.
I will also make the bold claim that Atlanta had one of the very best seventh round picks of the draft. They traded pick #245 (out of 259) to the Patriots for TE Jonnu Smith. Head coach Arthur Smith loves to use 2-TE formations, meaning that Smith will likely be a frequent starter along with Kyle Pitts. Throw that in along with getting Jeff Okudah for a fifth rounder, and Atlanta has four likely "day one" starters to show for its picks.
That's what I am saying though, a lot of the talking heads are not handing out many grades below a B. In years past I've seen plenty of C grades, with some D's thrown in for good measure. I don't think I've seen a D yet this year and very few C's. This draft class is going to help teams get better the least than I have seen in many years, imo. Just being able to draft the best players available or filling a hole with a guy in a need position doesn't give you a high draft grade imho. Drafting impact players is what raises the draft grade and there just aren't very many impact players in this draft. I am assuming they are grading on a sliding scale, but even still, I think it's giving some fans false hope that they are vastly improving their roster where they are most likely getting good to average backups in those picks. The teams outside the top ten that must rely on their new prospects to be starters are more than likely hurting their roster more than helping it. Mediocre veterans with more experience, and cheap, will help the team win more games. That's why I am so high on the Texans move... They did more to help their team improve than any other in this draft. It didn't cost them much to get the best player in the draft, as well as, imo, the best NFL QB in the draft. Young is a better college QB, but Stroud has the tools needed to succeed at the next level. His is mental... I think Young will be a good QB at the next level.. I just don't think he is going to be a Patrick Mahomes savior type guy and that is what the Panthers need. Stroud probably won't either, but I think he and Richardson have a better chance to achieve it. One of those two are bound to fail, where I don't think Young will fail to be effective... just not #1 overall expectation level.
Yup, it's marketing. Kiper is clearly trying to avoid pissing off any fan bases too badly. That's why I laughed about Atlanta's B-. Others didn't hold back. CBS graded the Bijan Robinson pick as a D with the Matthew Bergeron pick in the second round as a C. But their funniest grade of all is edge rusher Zach Harrison in the third round getting a mark of A-, concluding with "Need filled." Right... a third round lineman is single-handedly going to be the savior to regenerate a pass rush. And they didn't think Bergeron fills a need?? For the life of me, I still don't get why media pundits seemed to think the Falcons needed to go edge, edge, and then edge in the draft. Apparently the talking heads have never heard about this new invention called "free agency". Atlanta just added Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree and LB/edge Kaden Elliss. It's already a very different line from last year. And then they still have Grady Jarrett, brought back Lorenzo Carter, and have last year's second and third rounders on the rise as edge rushers. I wonder what grade they would have given Zach Harrison if they knew that GM Terry Fontenot referred to him as a lineman rather than an edge rusher on Friday and talked about him playing inside.
I read something that makes me like the Bijan Robinson pick a whole lot more. The pick itself made it clear to me that GM Terry Fontenot takes the type of comprehensive BPA approach that I prefer. What I didn't like on Thursday night was that he didn't trade down first before taking Robinson, even though there probably were offers with small moves available - such as with the Eagles, who traded with Chicago one pick later. And what changed my mind was reading an interview with Fontenot where he explained that he continued to field calls right up to the moment the team turned in the card. He spelled out that you compare getting the Plan A player right away with getting the trade bounty and the Plan B player. He said that the difference between Bijan and the Plan B players the team was considering was great enough that none of the trade offers on the table were strong enough to justify the trade. I'm happy with that - regardless of how anyone feels about the player evaluations, they went through the exercise and gave all of the trade options proper consideration. That's good enough for me.
I wonder if they (Falcons/Fontenot) had a whiff that the Lions were going RB at #12... if so, Bijan's stock went even higher and they took him ASAP, so he wouldnt fall to the Lions?
Great question. The interesting twist is that the Lions were at #6, so they had a shot at Bijan if they really, really wanted him. But in spite of the rumors that the Falcons were targeting Robinson (Rich Eisen's first reaction on NFL-N was "They did it!"), Detroit did trade down. What they gained was moving from the late third to the early second (#81 up to #34) plus a fifth rounder. The Lions certainly knew there was a risk they'd miss out on Robinson, if he was in fact their Plan A target, but they decided that the trade was better. Frankly, it doesn't seem like an overwhelming trade offer for trading 12 for 6, so I think Arizona did well in that trade. (I don't know how they felt about Broderick Jones, but they moved up to get Paris Johnson. Darnell Wright and Peter Skoronski also went off the board before #12.) Detroit turning around and taking Gibbs makes me wonder if they missed out on their Plan A, Plan B, Plan C and maybe Plan D targets or if he really was a top target for them all along. He might have been a true target - Gibbs is a burner who led the team in receptions in addition to rushing. It's possible that Detroit rated him pretty close to Robinson as an all-around weapon. (A different type of weapon, certainly, but he will be DEADLY if used effectively.) If they really did have Gibbs up that highly to the point where he was like a #1B to Robinson's #1A, then they made a great trade. But on Atlanta's board, there was apparently a really big gap between Robinson and anyone else. Part of it (and the phone call on draft night suggests it's true) is the team really liked Robinson as a down-to-earth person as well as a RB. The moment that reportedly locked him in as their target was that the coach, GM, and others took his former Texas teammate Ta'Quon Graham out to dinner at a BBQ place in Austin. The Falcons are working on rebuilding the team culture as well as the team, and getting to know Robinson better at dinner confirmed everything they had heard about him and sealed the deal. The trade that I would have wanted Atlanta to make would have been with the Eagles. Chicago got a future 4th for flipping down one spot from 9 to 10. Atlanta almost certainly could have gotten the same future 4th for moving 8 to 10. But that still leaves Chicago in between, and Chicago was obviously willling to move down a little more. Would Detroit have tried to move up from 12 to 9, and would they have been willing to make that trade with a division rival? (And would Chicago have been willing to help out a division rival in making that trade?) That part, I have no idea. I still think the odds are that Atlanta would have landed Robinson at #10. But if their assessments came out that Bijan was better than anyone else at #10 plus an extra 4th in 2024, then so be it. They went with the true BPA process (filling the holes as much as possible in free agency and then taking what they saw as the best guy on the board), so I love it for that reason alone. They still might make an upgrade or two over the summer and there's obviously the risk that someone will get hurt in preseason and need to be replaced quickly. But right now, I'm absolutely stoked about Atlanta's likely 53-man roster from top to bottom. The offense fits Arthur Smith's style perfectly, they look like they will actually have a DEFENSE this year, and they have a new trio of good defensive coaches putting together their upgraded scheme.
Good stuff, Torgo... I actually think the Falcons had Robinson pegged for a long time, especially with the pre-draft meeting, chow at the BBQ joint and the fact that some reputable Draft recourses had this already picked some time before the draft, Drafftek is one site i use regularly and they had this pick at 8 filled in with Robinson a week or two before the Draft, so maybe there was a strong hint in the air that the Falcons were going to pull the trigger on him early. Probably a good thing the top 7 wernt targeting an RB at least not in the top 7, which left the door open and Fontenot and Smith walked right in.
What surprised me was how accurate the reports were a few days before the draft that if the right trade down didn't come through, the Falcons were taking Bijan. It is the lone reason I chose him in the collaborative mock put together last week. If I recall, there were some that couldn't believe that was the pick, questioning who or why someone would vote for him. And THIS is why I say go with your draft board and don't get cute. Taking BPA makes your team stronger over the course of 5 years, not just the pre-season or possibly even the first season of this draft period. Taking a player that is consensus, the best of his position to come into the league in 5 years shouldn't be shunned, it should be celebrated, imho. Saquon Barkley isn't the reason the Giants haven't won a Super Bowl since he was drafted. I would argue that there isn't a player in the 2018 draft that would have propelled them to a Super Bowl win. The consensus best player in the draft that year, Josh Allen, hasn't made it to a Super Bowl either... Does that mean, if Barkley didn't take the Giants to the Super Bowl, so he shouldn't have been drafted, that means the Bills shouldn't have drafted Allen because he hasn't taken the Bills to the Super Bowl either? I don't believe there was a QB that is definitely better than Ridder. So, if there isn't a player better than Robinson (or a possible upgrade at QB)... why not take Robinson? I'd be willing to bet the Lions wish they hadn't shot themselves in the Dick to get an extra 5th and move up a few spots from the 3rd to the second and miss out on the best RB to come out since Barkley. I think they believed their only competition was the Eagles. Don't beat yourself up over a possible future 4th round draft pick that more than likely is off the team 2-3 years after you pick him. 4th rounders average 2.6 seasons worth of games in their NFL career. Think about the fact you could possibly get some playoff wins with the help of your new stud RB. 1 playoff win is worth more than 2.6 seasons of meaningless games from a 4th rounder.
What's interesting about this, from DET's perspective, is that Gibbs was at the top of their board for RB and believed there was no real threat for him to be snagged in their move down.
One thing Ive always stuck to in our Mock Drafts here at L4SN is not just grabbing the BPA, but grabbing the BPA at specific positions on a certain team that was in desperate need to fill a glaring hole. Occasionally, in my opinion, there will be that one or two guys that are so freekin outstanding you flat out take him even if you have a half-dozen players in that said position, but that usually gets done if your in the top 10 or have a boat-load of capital like the Texans had and did. Any way, Ive learned quite a bit here in a short period of time. Got a lot to learn yet.
Gibbs does everything Bijan does but is faster. Gibbs is a much better fit and many teams not just detroit had Gibbs as RB#1.
Right now, the only team that has come out and said they had Gibbs above Robinson is Detroit (that I've read reporting on), but I don't doubt that Jahmyr sat on top of more than one board. SI reported pretty early on that there was discussion among insiders as to which back teams preferred, and that Robinson may not be the consensus that some believed him to be.
Having said what was said; Charbonnet and Achane just might outshine Gibbs and Robinson, lol. Someone once said... "life is like a box of chocolates" Schemes, coaches, injuries, luck, it all plays a factor, imo.
Oh, I'm quite happy about it. Especially knowing they had him valued that far above the rest of the field. (I valued him too, but I didn't have him pushed THAT far ahead of the rest of the pack.) They did it exactly right. Knowing that Fontenot went through the exercise makes a huge difference. Dimitroff wouldn't have traded down simply because he didn't like to trade down. He might have even traded UP to try to get in ahead of Detroit when the Lions were at #6. But Fontenot fielded the calls, made the evaluations, and acted accordingly. I couldn't ask for anything more than that. And the part that has me the most stoked of all was the overall approach they took in making sure they had the holes plugged in free agency. They even had options at left guard. Bergeron is a huge upgrade, so that pick really nails down their draft, but even if they missed out on him they did have other choices and wouldn't be forced into playing Jalen Mayfield or Matt Hennessy again. Put it all together and it looks like Fontenot uses pretty much exactly the same comprehensive BPA approach that I love. For anyone not familiar with the mathematical reasoning behind BPA, suppose you're up at #24. The very best player on the board is an outside linebacker / potential edge guy who has slid a bit in a deep class at that position. You have the LB graded at 95 on a scale of 1-100. But you need a new starting 1-tech defensive tackle. So you take the best DT available, who you grade at 90. You're up again at #55 in the second round. The top rated overall player on your board is a defensive end with a grade of 84. But your top remaining need is at center, so you take the best center available - even though his rating is only 76. Usually, by the third round there are so many players bunched so closely together in grades that the top guy at one position isn't likely to be significantly better than the top guy at some other position. There are some exceptions when players slide for whatever reason, but for the most part the true BPA approach doesn't make that big a difference from round three onward. But as Irish noted, the BPA approach makes your team stronger over the course of several years. Or more to the point, going with a shopping list approach based on need makes your team weaker. Down the road you end up with a core roster of 90's and 76's instead of 95's and 84's. After four years, that's eight players who are not as strong as the prospects you could have taken, which certainly makes a difference in the overall quality of your roster. As for the questions with Ridder, I think the media talking heads are selling him short. Ditto with Kenny Pickett for the Steelers, to some extent. Ridder had a rough debut but got better with each game he played, and he won the last two - with zero interceptions in those two games. He was also very good in third down situations in his four games, and everyone needs to remember he has 4.52 speed and scored 28 rushing touchdowns in college. You want a Lamar Jackson or Anthony Richardson type of mobile quarterback? Ridder can do that. But more importantly, the Falcons team around him was ravaged by injuries in those final four games. He didn't have Kyle Pitts. Cordarrelle Patterson was banged up and limited. Caleb Huntley went on IR. He had a revolving door of backups at left guard with Elijah Wilkinson out. The tight end situation alone is a night vs day difference. Atlanta uses a LOT of two-TE formations. Last year Ridder had Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt for the four games that he started at QB. This year he has Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith.
Interesting... I didn't see any of those reports pre-draft. If true, that changes a lot for the Lions choice to move down. ANY team is going to come out and say, we moved down and still got the name on the top of our list... Well, more likely in most cases, it's NOW the name at the top of the list, not the name that was on top when you traded. But who would ever come to the podium and say. "Dammit, we screwed up, we had Robinson as the best RB, but a guy we are going to fire later decided we could move some spots later in the draft so we did it and came away with the second best at the position." NONE, it will never happen. Both played 31 games in their college career One had a 6.3 ypc rushing and 13.4 ypc receiving One had a 5.6 ypc rushing and 11.8 ypc receiving One had 4,215 yards from scrimmage One had 3,344 yards from scrimmage One had 33 rushing TDs and 8 receiving TDs, total 41 One had 15 rushing TDs and 8 receiving TDs, total 23 One is 5'11" 215 One is 5'9" 199 So the thought here is because he ran a 4.36 vs. 4.46 in shorts, he does it both faster AND better? I think you have your Honolulu blue shaded glasses on here....Bijan scored the same or higher on every other aspect of the underwear Olympics. I wish teams were forced to release their actual pre-draft top 200 list 10 days after the draft, but I would LOVE to hear how you know that Gibbs was not only the Lions #1 RB, but that he was also the #1 RB on mulitple teams.. wait no.. MANY teams list. I could end up with yoke on my face here, but not only do I not believe the Lions(post draft) comments, I don't believe there were MANY teams that had it that way. I watched the tape, and I thoroughly enjoyed watching Gibbs, please don't take this the wrong way. However, he isn't in the same class as Bijan imo. I'm not a pro scout, but I've watched a lot of tape over the years.
Jeremy Fowler from ESPN was one of the first to come out and say that some teams had Gibbs ahead of Robinson. The Lions believed they could move back and still get him, so long as they stayed ahead of the Patriots and Jets (they believed he was coveted by both). They needed a trade partner (ARI was the only viable option) but we're not out on taking Gibbs at #6 overall.
It's also good to see that real teams don't buy into the media "wisdom" that you don't take a potential game-changing RB in the upper half of the first round.
