I know you weren't aiming this in my direction, but I just wanted to go on the record with my thoughts on what I expect from Baker. Simply put, I expect him to play 'Baker ball', which is a continuation of what he has been since he entered the league, and what I expected from him coming in. If the situation is near ideal for him, he will play at a level that has people envisioning more. If the situation breaks down, he'll perform at a level that isn't quite high enough to overcome the circumstances. He can play solid football when it remains a simple, coaching focused game. It's when things begin so shift sideways that the details of his shortcomings come to the forefront. The same can be said for a lot of passers, it's just that Mayfield's inconsistent ball placement leaves him with less margin for error. When he's hot, he plays pretty well. When he's cold, it's not good. The difficult part is that he can change temperatures game to game, quarter to quarter, drive to drive, and snap to snap. That's not a bad way of making your point, but I would counter with the current quarterback landscape and the numbers that the mid/low tier passers are making right now. Jameis is the second highest paid of the group and riding the pine at $14mil APY. After that, it's Marcus Mariota at just under $10mil APY. I expect Jimmy G and Derek Carr to easily be the number 2 and 3 most chased after passers in this upcoming off-season, after Tom Brady. I expect Lamar to get tagged, so that basically puts Daniel Jones, Baker and Sam Darnold as the next 3 up. It becomes an 'eye-of-the-beholder' situation for GMs when it comes to deciding which of those three they would rather have, but how many jobs are left combined with a GM/coach trying to protect himself from getting walking papers may make this trio less enticing. Let's look at potentials: HOU IND LV TB CAR (obviously not happening) WAS NYG NO Let's add some more question marks: NYJ ATL SEA MIA (Tua's health may be the deciding factor) Out of these situations, where do you see Baker getting a 3 year deal as a potential starter that would net him up to $25mil? (I only see one long shot, but I'm interested in your take)
That's fair. I did see that, but... Jameis and Mariota were signed as backups. If Baker is signed as a backup, I agree completely. If there are 2+ bidders looking at him as their starter, that brings us back to our post. There is a lot riding on these last two games for Mayfield. Houston didn't want him in the trade, so I would venture to say, same regime, same mindset... as well as being in the driver's seat for the #1 overall pick. Indy has already moved on from Ryan...This is a real possibility, other than the fact they will most likely hold a top 5 pick and might have more than one rookie in mind. LV is a top candidate to me. They aren't going to be in the QB lottery for the draft. Unless the can get a verbal agreement on a trade for Carr prior to the day after the Super Bow, he will be cut. If they can and they get draft compensation, they might try to make a move...however... I remember the Patriots were in on Mayfield in 2018. So, Josh McDaniels knows him very well. This leads me to another candidate that you don't have listed.... New England. I don't think they are sold on Mac Jones. If he loses to the Dolphins on New Year's day, without Tua, it wouldn't surprise me in the least for Bill to go after Baker. TB, standing for Tampa Bay OR Tom Brady... Both will be moving on in 2023. This is a realistic possibility when you start discussing multiple teams vying for Mayfield. They are a playoff team in need of a QB. Brady wasn't Brady this year, but they are still in the mix despite that. Commanders are a shit show and in the QB market. Unfortunately for them, they are just good enough that they will end up missing the playoffs because of their QB situation. I think they could be a player. Giants, see Commanders... Saints.. This one is interesting. Do they think he is an upgrade to Andy and Jameis? If so, they are in play. If they think he is basically the same level, they would more likely re-sign Dalton. Especially if they somehow win the South. Let's add some more question marks: NYJ ATL SEA MIA (Tua's health may be the deciding factor) These are in the, Baker shit the bed and will absolutely be signing as a backup, possible stater competition contract. This would be if Baker doesn't find a suitor and wants another prove it 1-2 year contract, similar to what Dalton signed with the Saints.
Sorry, I forgot to address this... A) I'm not convinced Tom Brady will be back in 2023. I think he has finally hit his wall and as much as I hate the guy, I don't think he will play beyond what his body will allow him to be at his best. I think he's done. B) Jimmy G will be evaluated on ability and availability which has been in short supply over his career. The 49ers drafted his replacement, due in large part, because of his injury issues. However, that replacement didn't live up to expectations and Jimmy G, in my opinion, will get the best offer from the 49ers. I'm not sure he even makes it to market. The sad reality is, the 49ers are never better than when Jimmy is behind center. Take him out of the equation and they might not be fighting for the playoffs in 2023, they might just be trying to figure out who will replace their current QB on his rookie deal. C) Carr is my biggest competition for Baker. The trajectories may be different, Carr flamed out down the stretch, so much so that his team is moving on from him with 3 years left on his contract. The good news for them is his contract can be voided with little damage. At the end of the day though, $35M for a QB they have confidence in is not too bad in this QB market. The confidence is gone, so they are moving on. The other side of the coin.. IF (capital letters) Baker continues to improve in each of the two final games, his trajectory will be going up... Which is why I think he and Carr could end up on the same level, or even possibly leaning in Mayfield's favor depending on these last two games.
That's a fair point, but Mayfield is being paid slightly ahead of Winston and right at #16 overall for APY. Even if he gets a crack at a starting gig, I don't see a deal that pays money indicating faith in the decision. I'd look to the kind of deal Mitch Trubisky got as a barometer, because even if Baker closes the season out with wins, he will still need a sharp statistical improvement to override the tape he put together in Carolina earlier in the season. Mayfield hasn't broken 250 yards passing this year and Sam Darnold's YPA is significantly better than Baker's in similar conditions. If Baker wins out with the Rams, without showing some kind of consistent, high output play to close the season (might not even matter), then I think it will have little to no effect on his prospects. Basically, I can't see a deal coming his way that would pay him into the top 15 contracts at passer. If he gets a crack at a starting gig, I'm thinking a number around $12mil APY for two years, that is majority incentive written, would be the ceiling. Agree on both counts, so I'll adjust the list: LV TB WAS NYG NO NE Question marks: NYJ ATL SEA MIA Not gonna happen: HOU (draft) IND (draft) CAR (cut) I'm going to disagree on NE, but I'll add them to the list. LV does make a lot of sense for various reasons, and I can see why a lot of people would agree with you on this. The logic is sound, so we'll breakout a top tier to see who else may be in it. Top Tier: LV Next up: TB WAS NYG NO NE Question marks: NYJ ATL SEA MIA Not gonna happen: HOU IND CAR We could get into a much longer discussion about the woes in Tampa, but this may be the top circumstance/team willing to overpay for Baker. Not as much for the player, but for the name. When Tom is gone they are going to want to make as much noise at the position as they can to try and keep selling tickets/merchandise. I think they will be out on both Carr and Jimmy G, so going after someone like Mayfield for a slightly increased price may be the kind of solution they would prefer. The downside of a potential deal with the Bucs is the cap situation. They are going to need to make room, there will be cuts coming and adding payroll may not even be in consideration. A year of Kyle Trask as the potential starter (with some Gabbert insurance) may be required simply to level the books. However, the situation may need that kind of a splash if the bloodletting is severe, so I'm going to tier the Bucs in with LV. Top Tier: LV TB Next up: WAS NYG NO NE Question marks: NYJ ATL SEA MIA Not gonna happen: HOU IND CAR I think the next 4 are out for various reasons. For the Commanders, the Wentz debacle is too fresh. I expect them to overpay for Jimmy G. For the Giants, I think they are going to try and find a way to get Jones back on a team friendly deal. If they cannot, then I think they go after someone like Sam Darold, Drew Lock or Jacoby Brissett to simply bridge them out (could be a small trade in the works for Mitch if the Steelers are willing to let him move). Baker could be in the mix here, but it doesn't feel like a great fit. The Saints are interesting as a potential, but they got to see him play in Carolina so they could already be out on him. I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans actually went with a smaller signing at the position while working through a cap and roster reset. He might have a shot at all 3, but I think it's definitely longer than the top two. Of the next 4, Seattle may be the only team willing to bring him in as competition to the starter. I have my doubts that they were really in on going after Baker this past offseason, but if there was any truth to the rumor it would bump them up into the next tier, IMO. I don't think Atlanta is going to go for a passer in the top of the first. I'm not sure they believe Ridder is the future, but I think they are probably more inclined to go after a younger vet with some deep ball skills to lengthen the offense if needed. Could Baker be on that list? Yes, but not as a starting option, which likely removes him from the list so that they don't have to entertain a media frenzy regarding the quarterback going into 2023. Miami probably will look to go after another vet to replace Bridgewater and sign someone with starters experience and youth. It will be a fallback plan if Tua's concussion issues continue into 2023. I don't believe they would sign Mayfield in any capacity, based on the head coach looking to continue keeping a comfort level for his current passer. With New England, I think they would simply shift down to Zappe next season if Mac struggles, then look to reset with a proven vet in 2024. It's either that, or Bill retires and the Patriots begin the rebuild with a new head coach and a rookie passer. That leaves the Jets, which I think may be the most interesting team to observe when it comes to the quarterback race. The coaching staff has familiarity with Jimmy G, but Derek Carr is definitely going to be in consideration. The absolute wildcard in that particular scenario? What if an aging veteran, that knows he has only a limited amount of throws left, wanted to come back to the AFC East to try and stick it to his former head coach over a 4 game stretch? If the Jets were willing to let Tom hand pick his offensive coordinator, and they went after some FA and draft picks to continue solidifying the offensive line, then the running game and weapons are more than adequate for the Jets to become an instant factor with the defense that Saleh has put together. As for Baker to the Jets? I don't think it has a chance. Right now, I see him either resigning with the Rams as the backup or getting that Mitchell type of deal with Vegas or Tampa, both of which could make moves at passer that give him no other option than to workout as good as possible deal to remain in LA as the heir apparent to when Stafford hangs it up.
In regards to potential UFA (and a soon to be traded Derek Carr) passers on the market - Here's how I think the general feeling with GMs would rank them out: Lamar Jackson Tom Brady Derek Carr Jimmy Garoppolo Daniel Jones Sam Darnold Baker Mayfield Geno Smith Jacoby Brissett Andy Dalton Gardner Minshew Cooper Rush Mason Rudolph Teddy Bridgewater Mike White Drew Lock Taylor Heinicke Case Keenum Blaine Gabbert Nick Mullens C.J. Beathard And maybe Stidham can jump up in the conversation with a solid pair of games. I'm not ranking the rest of the names, because I don't think there will be much interest until after the above names are signed. Joe Flacco Kyle Allen Chad Henne Chase Daniel Brandon Allen Josh Johnson Tim Boyle Joshua Dobbs Nathan Peterman Nate Sudfeld Jeff Driskel Trace McSorley David Blough Easton Stick My list has some differences but, If you were ranking them, how would you have them?
You amaze me how you can whip a list like that together this early in the day... I cant even get the lid off the toothpaste at the moment... good stuff!
I don't think Jimmy would sign and come back regardless. The 49ers did everything possible to remove him from the roster. It would be like Mason Rudolph saying "You know what? I know you guys fucked me over on that bullshit talk about an open competition, but I still think it would be the best career move possible to resign where I'm not wanted!".
@SAS @IrishDawg42 I'm still interested in your thoughts on this (likely doing a larger write up on it for the season's end).
@Campbell, I wish I could do some extravagant write up on why I think differently about all of these players. Truth is I agree with pretty much all of it. The big question with Brady is, will he return? I really have my doubts that his heart is in grinding through another season. I am removing him from my list until he convinces me he is returning. I think Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Andy Dalton return to their current teams... most likely Cooper Rush as well. If Geno isn't re-signed, I would put him right behind Lamar Jackson. He has done some nice things with the Seahawks team that drove Russell Wilson away. I don't think anyone gave the Seahawks a second thought other than, they will be playing for the number one overall pick. He is playing like a first round draft pick and I think he has earned that big payday. Whether it is real or an illusion doesn't matter as much to a GM that is desperate to keep his job. The only one I would move to the top is Josh Dobbs, who has an opportunity to elevate his team to a playoff birth and possibly make some noise in the playoffs. Of course you didn't know all this at the time of your post, so I will let that slide. at 8:00 am Saturday, he was just the fill in for injured Ryan Tannehill. I know he's got a year left on his deal, but if he gets over this injury (all indications are he will), he will have some say in moving this list down one peg for one of the needy teams. He won't be in Tennessee in 2023 and Jackson is the only name he wouldn't effect with his availability. He is at the very least on par with Carr and Garoppolo.
I mean... #1 - Baker Mayfield ... Who the hell cares after that? -------------------------------------------------------- In all seriousness... gotta agree with @IrishDawg42: I guess only extra flavor I would add... Lamar Jackson: sure feels like a good candidate for the franchise tag, no? Baltimore is 45-16 with him, 8-12 without him. Yes, he's a running quarterback and they have a finite shelf life, but they're a 7-10 team without him. They could also trade him away, post-tag, to a team (Saints), and he should fetch a decent haul -- I would think two first and two second round picks. Either way, likely not a free agent guy. Tom Brady: is he really going to play until 50? At 45, he's still a Top 10 quarterback and he's leading the NFL with nearly 45 attempts per game, so he's still holding together, too. Not unlike Baltimore, Tampa Bay is a 0.500 team at best without their best player. He's a guy who can literally call his shot, though, so he very well could end up on the free agent market and have his pick of all but about 5-6 franchises to play for. Los Angeles Rams would be an interesting partner... Derek Carr: wow... his franchise gave him a Top 5 receiver (by some accounts, #1 overall) and all he was able to accomplish with that was to get himself benched and primed for trading. Oh, he also enjoyed the top running back in the NFL in 2022 as well. Now, to be fair to Carr, the problems aren't all on his shoulders. He's always been a mid QB, but he was paired with an awful head coach who took a Super Bowl-caliber roster to a fourth-place finish and 6-9 record (as of this typing). He'll get traded somewhere and I could see him having similar numbers to his previous seasons -- he's not a guy you build around but in the right situation, he can be very good option. Jimmy Garoppolo: has the best roster in the NFL to work with and produces respectable numbers. Problem is - he cannot stay healthy, and he cannot elevate a franchise. Geno Smith: will be interesting to see what Seattle does with him. With the season he's having, he'll certainly generate some interest, but he's been absolutely abysmal his entire career until now. Safe to say that Seattle has been the outlier and he may be better served taking a decent contract to stick with Pete Carroll. Sam Darnold: has been efficient in Carolina but hasn't changed the narrative on him. He's still a stretch starter and if Carolina hadn't gone through so much turmoil this season, likely could have just faded into obscurity. There's a chance someone will take a flier based on his draft status since Blaine Gabbert and Blake Bortles got repeated shots despite being cat shit. Baker Mayfield: okay, really now... Bake's an interesting case, too. There's been so much chaos around him since he entered the league that it is impossible to gauge. In the right situation with support, he's a top flight QB in my mind, still. Cleveland wasn't that and Carolina certainly wasn't that. Los Angeles (Rams) could very well be that. If Stafford doesn't retire, it sets up a very interesting QB battle again -- assuming Mayfield stick around -- which goes right back into the whole 'chaos' narrative. I think he'll be best served staying in LA and his inconsistency thus far will keep teams from offering big money, in my opinion. All those other guys are bench-warmers. No one is going to get signed to be a starter.
Not sure how I left Danny Dimes out earlier... I would move on from him were I the Giants, but that is going to depend heavily on (1) who's available, or (2) if any QB falls to them in the draft.
QB Carousel Guess-Work (way too early edition): Teams without changes (AFC): Bills, Patriots, Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos Teams without changes (NFC): Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings, Lions, Bears, 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals Dolphins: Brady (FA) makes a lot of sense here, but I've got him going to another AFC team. Tua should hang it up -- probably won't -- but the team simply cannot count on him as "the guy" moving forward. I think they bring back Teddy Bridgewater and try to make a move for Derek Carr. Carr would be better suited saying he won't waive his trade contract and making Vegas cut him so he can dictate his future, but I think he would work very well in Miami's offense. New York Jets: Jimmy Garoppolo. Easy pick - there's familiarity with HC Robert Saleh, he'd have plenty of weapons to choose from, and be paired up with a Top 10 defense. All he has to do is be steady (and healthy). Plus, the endorsement deals would pile up in the NY market. Ravens: rookie draft pick (guess - Anthony Richardson). I have them as a team with changes only because I think Lamar gets tagged and the two sides cannot reach a deal before the draft. Baltimore could move him to a team on draft day to pick up some Day 1 compensation and get a new signal caller. Let's go with Atlanta, who would prefer the veteran Jackson over the intriguing rookie. Ravens would get into the Top 10 to land Richardson in this trade. Colts: rookie draft pick (guess - C.J. Stroud). My hunch is the Colts and their new head coach, make a lucrative trade package with the Bears to move up to #1 overall. This is only complicated by Stoud not yet declaring on the draft as he's awaiting the results of the NIL buy-out. That will really throw a wrench in things if he sticks in Columbus for another year. Texans: rookie draft pick (guess - Bryce Young). At #2 overall, they'll take the 5'9" signal caller but I don't feel great about it. Raiders: Tom Brady (FA). Reunites with McDaniels, gets closer to the west coast and his home, and enjoys maybe the best RB-WR-TE combo in the NFL. I had Brady going to the Rams until it was reported both McVey and Stafford intend to come back for 2023. New York Giants: Daniel Jones (tag), or Sam Darnold (FA) or Aaron Rodgers (trade). Daniel Jones isn't wowwing anyone, but the Giants might not have much choice. They'll be too late in the draft to land a top guy and you cannot go into the season counting on a Day 2 rookie to be the guy for a squad that already went to the post-season. I think Jones is back on a tag deal but that they'll explore every option and eventually either package Jones and picks to move up in the first or get themselves a mid-tier free agent (Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brissett, or Teddy Bridgewater). Commanders: rookie draft pick (guess - Will Levis). They should have stuck with Heinicke, but the coaching staff was unpredictable last season and I could see Taylor wanting to get out after being benched for Carson Wentz. Packers: Jordan Love. An interesting one here, as I wonder if Rodgers doesn't retire (or is asked to leave), in a very similar manner to his predecessor Brett Favre. History repeats itself as the will he/won't he saga continues until he's released (or traded). If he's released, I could see him land on the Giants. If he's traded, it would almost have to be to an AFC team and I have (unfortunately) already filled those spots -- Giants would be interesting. In either case, Jordan Love takes over in Green Bay. Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (FA). I think this could be a spot for Baker to land if he decides to leave McVey and L.A. They have the weapons and offensive system that is better-suited to his skill set. He'd get a chance to win the starting job with Brady out in Vegas, and he gets revenge on the Panthers twice a year. Panthers: rookie draft pick (guess - Tanner McKee). A hot mess of a team that needs all the pieces it can get to start its rebuild. Ideally, they would sign a journeyman and tank for 2024 -- which I'm sure is not what the fans want to hear. Saints: Daniel Jones (trade) or Jacoby Brissett (FA). Left out of the rookie dance, and without a first round pick, they'll have to scrounge the free agency market. I think their best option left becomes maybe a Daniel Jones (trade) or Jacoby Brissett (FA). Either is likely a placeholder and I would expect them to use a Day 2 selection on a signal caller. Falcons: Lamar Jackson. Last season, they were the heavy favorites to land Arm Kelly before he took the guaranteed bag over his hometown squad. This offseason, I could see them putting together a similar package for Lamar. In the dome, he could be deadly.
Whew... after I type out a hit piece on Jones he goes and has his finest game of his career in the post-season against a 13-4 Vikings team. As I mentioned elsewhere, I do think the Vikings were a bit of a paper tiger but that's still an impressive thing to be on the road and win a post-season game, so kudos to him. So maybe Jones is back again -- especially as the Giants keep winning. Also, just goes to show the importance of coaching. Brian Daboll and the Giants had minimal offseason signings, got good (but not elite) production from their two Top 10 rookies, and yet Danny Dimes was looking like RGIII out there and Saquon Barkley has been a revelation.
Daboll really has been magic. He has them fired up, playing on all cylinders and very competitive. Getting the best out of their stars and the rest of the blue crew. Jones has been good recently... kinda peaking at just the right time. He's making good decisions and can run also... a double threat. I might also add, the Vikings defense under Donatell is atrocious, but no excuses... they went on the road in Minnesota and put a whoopin' on the Vikings. They did, thanks to good game management, execution and coaching deserved that win. Good for them. Jones seems to be dialing in... maybe he just needed experience which comes with more games played and reps out there, but Im starting to like/respect that guy.
I don't think Brady goes to the AFC when the easier road to the SB is in the NFC. If he does go AFC I think it's the Raiders.
