Assuming you also sent him a PM, good idea to post here as well as the PM. I've ended up not seeing the little red flag telling me I have PMs several times, mainly because I'm not up at the top of the page to see the alert.
Inclined to agree. A couple mocks in I can almost feel the dropoff right around pick 140-150, unless your team is comfortable with true BPA. A lot of positions are like 7th round quality or UDFA by early-mid round 5 IMO.
Reminder... if you'd like to try this year's Draft Value Challenge, it's the last five guys taken in Round 2 and the first five in Round 3 (overall picks 60-69). What you do is choose whether you think each player will go earlier in the real draft (a riser) or will go later (a faller). Scoring for this version: Pick a riser and he rises = +2 points per pick that he rises. Max gain = +136 points. (Don't ask me to allow more than that for a riser. I'm standing on that as a FIRM ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM and will NOT go any higher.) Pick a riser and he falls = -1 point per pick, max loss = -50 points. Pick a faller and he falls = +1 point per pick that he falls, max gain = +50 points Pick a faller and he rises = -2 points per pick that he rises, max loss = -50 points. I'm trying it out with 2 points for rising because the range of picks is relatively early - there's more room to fall than to rise. I'm also guessing with only 10 picks involved, we might have some ties because some of us pick the same combinations of rise/fall. For this year, I'm good with that. I just want to test this idea out and see how it flies. (If it sucks, then in a future year we'll do something like the Second Round Scrabble challenge instead...) And for those who want to dig into the deeper prospects, the Iron Man Draft Value Challenge is similar. It's picks 5-1 through 5-20. Pick rise or fall for each prospect. Scoring is +/- 1 point in either direction, with a max of +/- 100 for each prospect. The general idea is to go head to head against everyone else on exactly the same set of prospects.
Along the same line. I hope we doing the first round challenge again. @Tim That's always one of my favorites.
Also along those same lines, the "Second Round Scrabble challenge" isn't a complete joke, by the way... and the more I think about it, the more I like it.
To me that's the key part. If the talent and/or potential is actually that high, you have to figure often a couple of the 31 other teams are willing to snatch them up the minute an injury frees up one of their roster spots.
Yep. As an example, Atlanta had and lost J.D. McKissic that way. They had him on the practice squad, bumped him up to the main roster to protect him, but then dropped him back to the practice squad when they had to make other roster moves due to injuries. He never made it back to the practice squad, as he was claimed off waivers. Likewise, San Francisco lost Harvey Dahl to Atlanta that same way.
Hmmm... I was thinking we'd just keep using this thread (or PM me if you want to keep your choices secret until the draft begins). But if y'all want to move it over to a new thread, we can do that too.
The idea for the Scrabble thing is to take a block of picks, like all of round 2 or all of round 3 or whatever. Or maybe even all the comp picks from every round. We would try to guess the grand total Scrabble score for all the players taken in that block. We'd have to pick an official reference source for the names, because "Bo" or "Smoke" would have different scores vs their actual names, and things like Ben vs Benjamin, Jr vs Junior make a difference as well. But otherwise it would be easy to participate - your entry would simply be a number. If we use something like all of round 2 or round 3, there would be an element of skill in that you'd have an edge by accurately predicting who makes it into that block. More importantly, it also has a whole lot of silliness...
1st Round Observations QB's - 2 WR's - 6 Edge/DE - 7 RB's - 0 OT's - 4 OG's - 1 LB's - 2 DB's - 8 Interesting and somewhat surprisingly we only had 2 QB's going as compared to the 'big shots' out there who have like 5 or 6 going in the 1st. WR's was just about as expected/predicted by the writers on other sites. Lots of defense drafted early... I find that just a bit surprising as the NFL seemed to have shifted to a scoring, wide-open game... maybe the rise in defense is indicative to the need to stop these high powered, high scoring offenses, that are dominating the NFL the past couple seasons.
I think in the top 50 there just happens to be a lot of top 50 talent on the defensive side of the ball. You have probably 5+ CBs, 3+Ss, 2-3 LBs, and who knows how many Edge/DT guys worthy of those selections. I disagree with any expert that thinks 5 QB's are going in round 1 this year. I think the NFL is more disciplined these days than some give credit for. I can see 3 this year. Outside chance of a 4th. This group genuinely just isn't that talented.
Do you think that the fifth year option would be a factor? I kinda doubt it with this year's class. I'm not taking Uncle Rico in round one just to have the right to dedicate a huge cap figure to him in year five.
Just so I'm clear on this. If Matt is a no-show, I know Raiders can pick at 11:15....Should Green Bay then wait until their official time slot begins since we still would be waiting on the skipped pick?
Yeah, I find people love to talk about that 5th year option. But you are right, if a team did their homework and believes in a guy they probably can see a value in it. But if they don’t feel forced to trade up to hypothetically 20 to grab a guy they think is a franchise passer, then I just don’t buy that there are many instances where they pass up a guy they like a lot more at say receiver or cornerback just to take a quarterback because of that option. Look at the price of wide receivers now after this off-season. You can make the same argument for taking your top receiver at 32. Or can you? Maybe they just refuse to report and cry for a trade which seems to be the trend now
I think it's more an indication of this draft class. Other than WR, it seems this class is lacking in offensive talent grade wise. On the other side of the ball, DBs especially seem to be very DEEP. I think this is a by product of the evolution of the game. Every level passes the ball more than ever before, which has allowed better development of receivers at the high school level, giving the college level more talent that can be developed further. Once that happened, high school had to find and develop more DBs to counter the offensive. In my day, you might see 5'10" 160# linebackers playing, because they could utilize them in multiple roles as some of their better athletes to stop the outside run game... These guys are all being developed as DBs now and they are pulling from the big boys to fill in the second level of defense. The shift is complete, your stars are coming in the form of the passing game and those developed to stop it, edge and DB. The running game is what it is, so RBs are going to drop no matter how good you are. Guards are being looked at as pass defenders more than ever and that is an easier task than grading holes in the defense, so they have been downgraded.. etc. The QB discrepancy here is a little surprising, but we don't like the prospects, so we aren't drafting them. In real life, jobs are on the line if you don't have one, so the urgency is there to take one a round early if your rating has them any where near the top 50 overall talent. I think there will be 4 QBs gone on Thursday night, possibly 5 if someone finds Howell or Strong appealing enough...
