Decisions decisions

This one is interesting for how much people have jumped on one side with a pretty loud stomp.

I'll get my opinion down on this either later today or early tomorrow, but I'm surprised a bit that I'm only seeing one side of the argument.

 

I'll see what I can do.

 

When we look at a potential split in reps between Jacobs and Drake it would be wise to also look at the same between Dobbins and Edwards.

Mark Ingram was essentially phased out of the offense after the bye week in 2020, which coincides with the starting role shifting fully to J.K. Dobbins. However, the touches for Gus Edwards remained at a constant the entire year. The coaching staff trusts Gus and consider him the 1B to Dobbins, so that role shouldn't change in 2021.

Drake coming to Las Vegas should impact Jacobs to a degree, but how much will be the interesting thing to monitor. It has potential to drop Jacobs overall totals but it remains a great unknown until we see some regular season reps.

A rough projection for total rush attempts (17 game season) based on the previous season for both teams/players would come out something like:
Ravens - 600

• Dobbins - 225
• Edwards - 175
• Jackson - 200

Raiders - 500

• Jacobs - 300
• Drake - 160
• Carr - 40

Now, let's switch up the Raiders number to better reflect what will likely happen with Kenyan in the fold -

Raiders - 500

• Jacobs - 260
• Drake - 200
• Carr - 40

So, with both teams there is likely going to be a number of 50, or slightly higher, attempts that gets bumped to the primary ball carrier. The bigger look between the two teams would be that the Ravens have a third featured rusher that eats up the difference of +100 total team attempts along with another 100 total from the two primary backs. Based on this information, we can speculate that the odds are stronger for Jacobs to have more total attempts (and likely combined touches) than Dobbins in 2021.

What about total touchdowns and yardage totals?

If we base some averages on the above projections, this is what it shows:

• Jacobs - 12 TDs / 1,150 Rushing Yards / 150 Receiving Yards
• Drake - 6 TDs / 800 Rushing Yards / 250 Receiving Yards
• Carr - 2 TDs / 150 Rushing Yards

• Dobbins - 12 TDs / 1,200 Rushing Yards / 175 Yards Receiving
• Edwards - 8 TDs / 775 Rushing Yards / 125 Yards Receiving
• Jackson - 6 TDs / 1,000 Rushing Yards

Now, factor in that the strength of competition slightly favors the Ravens backfield and the case for Dobbins edges just enough ahead of Jacobs to make him the likely favorite, but I'm not seeing anything in the numbers that suggests Dobbins is a slam dunk bet over Josh.

The offensive line will be much better in Baltimore than it will in Vegas, but there are also way more touches and yardage drained off from the backs by the passer. Plus, we don't have any clue as to what kind of potential positive impact having Drake on the roster could be for Jacobs. It might make it so that less touches per game equals higher productivity late in contests and added consistency throughout the season. It might not end up a net negative for Josh.

This is closer to a coin flip than what a lot of people are suggesting, so just to make things interesting...

I'll take the opposite of the crowd and go with Jacobs on this one.

 

I don’t like either player at their adp.

 

Jacobs for me but I will be honest my anti ravens bias may slightly influence the choice. Some are droppimg Jacobs down because of drake but I dont think he is going to have the impact they are suggesting he will. He will get some touches yes but tje only way drake sees significant carries is if jacobs gets injured.

 

Im not sucking up to the boss, lol, but I love the breakdown Tim did.

Before he posted that I looked at the past stats for both players and I was leaning Jacobs after posting Dobbins... just for a pure fantasy points perspective.

Both going to be good RB's and already are, but I think as far as fantasy production goes, Jacobs has the edge because of the Raiders system compared to the Ravens.

 

Ready for the next one?


Noah Fant or Logan Thomas?

 

While I agree Jacobs is a better player than Drake, the Raiders clearly have a significant role in mind for Drake based on what they paid him, and I don’t think it’s holding Jacobs’ water bottle for him.

 

I would probably take Fant in most situations due to upside. They were pretty close statistically last year. Thomas may not top what he did last year again going into his age 30 season, and Fitzmagic historically isn’t a huge utilizer of the TE and will probably looking to push the ball downfield to McLaurin and Samuel first and foremost and Thomas probably isn’t getting 100+ targets again. Fant’s QB situation is dicey but going into year 3 he has more upside to break into the elite TE echelon than Thomas. Admittedly Fant will have some good competition for targets with Sutton back and Jeudy going into year 2, but I think Lock/Teddy are more likely to take underneath stuff than Fitz when it’s there.

Shorter version - Thomas higher floor, Fant higher ceiling, I’d prob go for the higher ceiling.

 

I’m not high on either player. I guess I’d go with Fant.

 

This is interesting to me on a personal/fantasy note.

I have both Fant and Thomas on an L4SN Football team and have been wondering what to do as far as starting one over the other.

Im going to watch them in Camp, evaluate them and go with the hot hand, I guess.

After week 1, ill just continue to ride the hot hand, but the two, as pointed out by, Underdog were very close last season, but Thomas had the advantage as far as actual scoring points... not by much tho.

 

That’s a decent spot to be in at that position if you don’t have Kelce, Kittle or Waller

 

or Pitts

 

Anyone else want to take a shot at this one before I move on?

 

I thought I had replied to this one but I guess not. Fant no real reason other than a hunch he will have a breakout year this year.

 

Not having a definitive answer on who will start at quarterback for the Broncos makes this one a little trickier than it needs to be, IMO.

If Bridgewater is the starter over Lock, it doesn't necessarily mean that Fant becomes irrelevant. During Teddy's productive time in Minnesota it was Kyle Rudolph that led the team in TD receptions. Shurmur's offense does have some focus on the position so Fant should get a lot of relevant looks each week. The bigger issue would be the lack of quality downfield chances, which would put a hard cap on just how much yardage production Noah can put up with Bridgewater as his passer. That would make him completely TD dependent as a weekly fantasy starter.

If Lock were to be named the starter it's going to give Noah a lot more downfield looks but Drew only hit him for 3 TDs last season. I would immediately give a bump up in predicted scoring by Fant within the new offense which would give him a chance to be consistent in yardage with the opportunity to tack on 6 in between a third and half of his games.

Looking at Fitzpatrick throwing to Logan Thomas, Scott Turner has put a lot of trust into Logan to be the kind of consistent weapon that the offense will base some of it's aerial attack around. That's likely to remain consistent but the bigger question will be whether or not Fitzpatrick plays within the system or goes rogue, as he sometimes likes to do. With the ground game and defense that Washington has there is a solid opportunity for Ryan to make the post-season. He's going to need to play within the system for that to happen, so... yeah, it probably all blows up and goes to shit in a glorious fashion somewhere around week 9. lol

I'm going to take Thomas on this one because I see him as a more consistent weekly option than Fant for the majority of the year. It's probably pretty close in points to close it out, but that consistency might be more relevant to your weekly win total by the end of the season.

 

Ready for the next one?


Myles Gaskin or Chase Edmonds?

 

I wish I knew for sure Gaskin wouldn’t lose carries this season.

 

We know Chase is losing carries to Conner. Not to mention Kyler.

I love Chase, I’ve been rooting hard for him, but I fear he’s in line for a 3rd down/COP role at best and will never be a lead back.

Gaskin has his limitations, too, but he’s the best back on that roster by a mile. Who’s he losing carries to? Malcom Brown? I’ll believe that when I see it. He’s an excellent receiver and good for 18 touches a game minimum IMO.

Chase could have 2-3 monster games that could end up putting him close to Gaskin in total points at the end of the year, but Gaskin’s your guy for consistent weekly production.

 

Think you nailed it with that post.