I would be all for the Eagles drafting a CB in the first. My first choice would be Smith still but I totally understand the concerns. I'm actually a bit more shy on Waddle because I don't trust the Eagles to use him properly. Ideally a WR and then getting a good CB in the 2nd and then OT/DL/LB in the 3rd/4th would be cleanest but the draft is dynamic and I'm looking for Howie to fuck it up himself by passing on obviously better players again.
Very nicely done, Tim. Like the Vikings move. One thing that has been on my mind about this draft is this... There are a lot of football teams banking on all the QB's going at the top of the Draft, this leaves teams looking at defense and OL a huge break at landing some real studs, that under a 'normal' Draft, may not have been available. What do you think, @Tim ? Teams like Arizona, Minnesota, Cleveland and so on, can really benefit from the top drafters going for the QB's?
It’s definitely going to drive talent down the board that would have otherwise been gone. Atlanta can either take the highest rated non-passer on their board or trade down for a huge haul. Something that never would have been a chance without SF moving up. Hell, ATL could snag a passer and it would be pick #5 that would reap what the top 4 sowed.
First and third this year and a second and fourth next. Miami used that third and their second to jump back into the bottom of the first.
The Devonta Smith slide is interesting. I absolutely understand your thinking here, but the talent level is too great. His skill set, I personally, have him as the #1 WR. Randy Moss came out of college 6’4” 194#, which is very close to Smith’s 6’ 170#. Randy’s BMI is 23.61 Smith’s BMI is 23.05, add 5 pounds to his frame, he doesn’t lost any of his skill set, but his BMI moves to 23.73. Year 2, with trainers help, you can add another 5 pounds and suddenly his BMI is 24.41. Do you sacrifice that talent for a higher BMI? Which is easier to coach up over two seasons? Training to play with a few extra pounds of professional muscle, or teaching a skill set that few ever possess. No way would I let a top 5 talent drop due to something he has been playing with his entire career. Similar to the controlled Epilepsy that Fields has lived with and had NO repercussions.
His official weight came in at 166, which is almost 30 pounds less than what Randy came in at, and it does create a problem for coaches to deal with. He also doesn't have the physical gifts of a Randy Moss type that can win by simply burning or out leaping the opposition. The Desean Jackson comp that I've seen thrown around doesn't work because DeVonta wins by clean routes and top shelf footwork. Jackson screams out the blocks. If the comparison is body type only it still doesn't work, as Jackson is shorter and thicker in frame than Smith with a BMI of 24.2 (HT 70/WT 169). As for the BMI - Randy's was a touch higher than what you have when he entered the league at 24.1 (HT 75.6/WT 194). DeVonta's will be 22.5 (HT 72/WT 166). That's extremely slight for a player that doesn't win with burner speed. He's going to make his living winning with timing and footwork to create separation and larger DBs are going to be able to mitt him up inside the 5 to immediately reroute him. That's the most obvious concern with the weight is that you can't expect to put him on the outside and simply make him that type of receiver. To get the most out of him you're going to need to move him around and protect him. As for adding weight - He's already more of a 4.4 or 4.5 speed player, so let's say you bring him up 10 pounds to get him to 176. Now you may have a 4.5 to 4.6 player (not ruling out he gets faster because it has happened) that still makes a living the same way, while still being somewhat underweight with a new BMI of 23.2. It wouldn't be the end of the world for him because of his style, but do you draft a wide receiver extremely high with this many variables around whether or not he will not only be productive but remain upright for an entire season, and how much do I need to scheme around protecting my high pick investment? All it takes is for one owner/GM/coach to believe that there is no risk involved, or simply never even contemplate it, for DeVonta to still go extremely high in this draft. But it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few that had a need at that position near the top of the draft that decided it was an issue that they may want to avoid. It's a slide based on a manager's wont to protect his job. Looking at it through a different lens where I'm not matching players/teams in a mock, the over/under for Smith is probably going to be set somewhere in the range of picks between Philly and Minnesota (12-14). EDIT: Vegas has the line on DeVonta's over/under set at 11.5.
Obviously based on the official mock I think you’re probably on the right track with Farley to the Pats. I’m fairly convinced at this point it’ll be one of him, Paye, or AVT, with a modest trade up for a sliding QB, Surtain/Horn, or Slater a lesser possibility. Which means it’ll probably actually be Kelvin Joseph or some shit.
