Looking Forward to the 2021 AFC North

And it should still be pretty darned good if Clowney turns out to be Ol’ Aches and Pains again for a chunk of the season.


That is why I said Good Luck with him Dawg......IF is the biggest word in the English Dictionary.

 

I think another big word should be "expectations". Some folks may be thinking that Clowney - either by virtue of his contracts or prior draft status - is being brought in and expected to generate 15 sacks this season. In reality, he just has to do better than...

2020: 9.0 (3.0 in one game against an awful Philadelphia team without Myles Garrett playing)
2019: 3.5
2018: 3.0
2017: 4.0

Seriously... that's it. That's what our weak-side DE has produced lined up next to the All Pro Garrett. And again... Vernon dropped 1/3 of his total in a single game while Garrett was out. And we paid him $15.5 million to do so. Paying Clowney $7 million for 5-6 sacks is fine with me. He also comes with the previously-mentioned improvement in the running game. Vernon, for as little as he did as the Robin to Myle's Batman also sucked out loud against the run. At least if Clowney comes out here and notches 4.5 sacks in 17 games, I still feel good that we paid him half as much as the last guy and he probably is going to help improve the run defense.

Myles is a 15+ sack guy. The guy opposite Myles just has to contribute in the running game and push the pocket a little bit.

So some may want to add... "well you're paying $7 million for that... seems high". You're right. It tells me the F/O took a look at this year's DE class and said "NOPE". Gotta say I agree -- at least in round one. The top EGDE guys are 3-4 OLBs (Ojulari, and Oweh). The best natural DE prospect (probably Jaelan Phillips) quit football twice - once because of injuries and once to become a rapper. I'm gonna pass on that one, dawg. Kwity Paye is an expensive Emmanuel Ogbah -- raw talent but no real pass moves to speak of so what do you do with him? Payton Turner's my top DE on the board and he's gonna be available in R2 (probably not for Cleveland, but he's not going in the Top 32 picks I wouldn't think). Rousseau, my early favorite, showed up fat and tested poorly which made me actually watch his tape and yeesh... he's probably an inside guy at the next level? Should be a late R2 early R3 selection.

I'm good with Clowney. Worst case scenario is that he gets blanked in the sack column and we move on next year? All right.

 

That's exactly what I'm getting at. The teams that "WIN" the off-season are typically teams that had a long way to go and it rarely pans out. You can dismiss it as jealousy all you like but that's BS, The Steelers NEVER win the off-season and they rarely get high draft grades. But they win a lot of games, top two in the division just about every year since Tomlin took over. Typically always up against the cap and always drafting in the 20s. And yet they keep winning. The Browns? They win a lot of off-seasons. I'm not jealous of that. We'll see if this year it translates to a division title.

As I said, I like the slot CB and safety. We'll see on the others.

I'm in Philly territory. Ask a philly fan about Malik Jackson. He was a ghost last year. 2015-2017 Malik? That guy was an upgrade. I don't feel like you're being objective on this one.

Clowney is on his 4th team in 4 years. That alone should tell you something. As I said before, a big part of the Browns improvement on defense after the bye week was the pressure from Vernon. Vernon after the bye 7 sacks, 17 pressures. Garrett 3 sacks, 9 pressures (2 less games). Maybe they'll add a pass rusher in the draft or grab a veteran still not signed. The off-season isn't over.

Not sure you can call 3.5M a "minimum investment" in 2021. The Browns aren't flush with cash like they used to be. Every dollar counts when you actually start hitting on draft picks and have to give out second contracts.

 

I would need you to translate the grunts, yells, and ethnic slurs for me.

Adds
Jadeveon Clowney - 1 year
Malik Jackson - 1 year
Takkarist McKinley - 1 year
Anthony Walker Jr. - 1 year
Troy Hill - 2 year; 1 year team option

Re-signings
Rashard Higgins - 1 year
JoJo Natson - 1 year
KhaDarel Hodge - 1 year
Porter Gustin - 1 year
Malcolm Smith - 1 year
Elijah Lee - 1 year

... I think "we'll see" is exactly the plan. Cleveland is signing low-risk (length-wise) deals now with a lower cap in place and putting themselves in a position to evaluate those players in their new roles/environment and then extend the ones that prove to be great adds. Not all those guys are getting a second contract with the team in 2022. I'd be surprised if half of them did, to be honest.

The Browns are currently sitting 16th in cap space for 2021 with the NFL's 8th youngest roster. The cap is expected to grow big-time for 2022 (down due to Covid this year) and the Browns will also need to address some of the bloat on the team today (Beckham Jr., Landry come to mind). They'll be able to exercise their 5th-year options on Baker and Denzel to give them time to work out an extension for Bake (early prediction here is they'll trade Denzel).

#NotWorried

 

p.s. Gotta give Howie some credit on the Jackson / Jeffery. Pretty innovative cap management. They wanted to make them post-June 1 cuts but that requires you to keep their salaries on the books until June 1. Jackson was due 18.5M, Jeffery 13.6M. That's 32M dollars just sitting there on the cap for 3 months. Instead he had them agree to near league minimum salaries in exchange for guaranteeing them to be cut in time for free agency and maximize their opportunity to find work elsewhere. Pretty ingenious stuff.

 

I'll agree that Berry is light years ahead of anyone you've had there in recent memory. Much better plan. I'm just not a fan of re-treads. When numerous teams give up on a guy I think there's something there. But Richardson has been alright so maybe you'll get similar results. The Browns are still a few years away from serious cap management considerations but it's coming. The window to win is now. Those 5th year options for Baker and Denzel will be monster. They were both Top Ten picks so that's franchise tag level money I believe - although I think they did tweak that a little in the most recent CBA. I'd have to research. Still definitely a lot of money.

Berry's success on draft day is a double-edged sword. Because the more home runs you hit the more money you have to use to re-sign players or continue to hit home runs. The teams that win consistently are the teams that can balance that. I'll be anxious to see how Berry does getting guys re-signed. He already got a huge win in the Garrett re-signing. By signing him early he avoided the market escalation and he took advantage of what many teams don't - the manipulation of new money. The Ravens have been awful at this. It's such a gimme. You satisfy the player with what will be reported as 25 MILLION PER SEASON FOR MYLES GARRETT but you squeeze it in to the original contract with much lower base salaries. So they locked up Garrett at 5 / 125, gave Myles and his agent a publicity "win" but they added it to the 19M he was due in '20 and '21 and spread it out over 7 years. Knocks it down to roughly 144m over 7. A little over 20M per season and he's locked in through his prime. Great work by Berry. A good sign. It was Berry, right?

 

Pretty low bar...

Interestingly enough, our best GM's in the past 20 years or so were/are: Andrew Berry, Sashi Brown, and Joe Banner (technically, Lombardi was the in-name GM but that relationship was toxic). All analytics guys, the latter two derailed by the "football" guys. Shedding cap-heavy players in an effort to make a bad team better through smart cap management, sound drafting, and key free agency acquisitions -- not just throwing heaps of cash at the top guys on the market.

The biggest test is coming faster than Baker and Ward -- it's Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb is the NFL's top running back, is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, is a locker-room and fan favorite, and will be a free agent after this year. The problem? He plays a devalued position that historically offers little in the way of returns after the first contract.

For his production and ability, on the low end, I would think a contract around $13 million a year (Dalvin Cook). The top earners at the position are in the $15-$16 million range (Christian McCaffrey, Zeke Elliott) and Chubb is definitely better than them. Will Berry sink $15 million into the position on a longer-term deal next offseason?

 

I know I know... He's an NFL star..

Well, he is also a very good TEAM player. I'm not sure that Chubb will demand to be paid the highest RB in the league. He seems like the type of player that is more interested in winning and staying settled in one place. Unless the Falcons come calling, I think he already calls Cleveland home. He also seems to have a smart head on his shoulders and is most likely investing wisely. He isn't going to leave for the Jacksonville's of the NFL, just because they will pay him $16M/year. He wants to win and if this team is committed to keeping this core together through their careers, I think he will be on board for that as well. I might be naive, I just see Chubb as a different era type of player. I could definitely see him giving a Tom Brady type hometown discount to keep the team together. Now Baker? That might be a different story. I'm not certain he will do the same. I hope he wants to be like Brady, but I'm guessing he's gonna want to be paid like the top QBs in the league are getting paid...simply because he can and the Brady's of the world are rare.

 

It helped that the Patriots organization was illegally paying Tom Brady and his "business" off the books while he was taking hometown "discounts".

[Was going to mention this earlier when @beachbum was talking about GM's getting creative with payments and contracts...]

 

That's not true at all beach, and I don't need a Philly fan. lol! I'm looking at stats and PFF score...Malik Jackson 64.7, Larry Ogujobi 53
Are you sure you are being objective? Because it feels more like you just dig'n Browns fans? I think you over-rate Ogunjobi. Yeah, he had his way with Pouncey, but isn't that why he retired? I like Larry, but this isn't a major loss at all. Plus you are still forgetting we have Billings.

Yes. We live in the world of free agency. And the last time Clowney played on a line that had a superstar on the opposite side, he went to 3 straight pro bowls.

The dude has potential. He was a 1st round pick not long ago. lol! You are just grumpy because you can see what everyone else can see in regards to the AFCN power rankings.

 

I'd like to believe that, too, but I'm just not certain.

As far as the new or different era type of player goes... I would expect to see the younger players in the league wise up to the way contracts are written and get more in the ways of guaranteed dollars like the quarterbacks have been recently. Zeke and McCaffrey have the two highest value running back contracts - $15 mill and $16 mill annual average - but the guaranteed is lower by almost half. Zeke is nearly guaranteed $8.5 mill with McCaffrey at $9.5. If I were a new era player giving away a hometown discount, it would be giving away total contract value to secure guaranteed monies. A $50 million, 5-year extension for Chubb would tie him at 5th with Derek Henry, but put him at the top of the heap in terms of contract guarantees.

Ditto for Baker. The thing going in the teams' favor with Baker is his numbers have been pretty much average. He's a great quarterback but he's not lighting up the stat sheet every week -- he's right around middle of the pack in most categories (~16th) so if you're talking about a production-based contract or incentives, they really aren't there. The smart move for him would be to secure the Kirk Cousins type of deal... lower end (market-wise) but fully guaranteed.

 

You got that right. I think Haslam, Berry and Stefanski are well aware.

 

You'll probably erupt and we'll go back to just ignoring each other but you are a freaking broken record always trying to tell me what my motives for posting are. It gets really old.

I have far more confidence in the Steelers than you think I do. Therefore I am far from grumpy and not remotely jealous of any team, certainly not an organization that has done as little as the Browns for the last 20 years.

I'm happy the Browns are improving. I consider some of you friends. I'm happy for you and I enjoy posting here far more than I do anywhere else. That wouldn't be possible if the series was always one-sided.

You guys have been piling dirt on their grave for years. At some point you'll understand the Steelers aren't going anywhere. They are going to compete. It will be a fun rivalry.

 

Extending Chubb this year falls right in line with what I was talking about. He's a former 2nd round pick so he's due only 3.4M in 2021. Give him the 13M annually like you are suggesting in a new 4 year, 52M extension this summer. It's a win for he and his agent (this matters a lot) and it's really 55M over the next 5 years. Pretty damn reasonable for a guy his age with his skill set.

 

How do you twist it all up like that and then throw personal insult and then play the poor victim? I'm keeping it civil and you are being infantile.

Why would I erupt? Good lord..... I love the way things are going, and seeing how much it all bothers you makes it that much more enjoyable, quite frankly. I'm really glad the new and improved Browns have your support and there's no jealousy. Glad to hear it. And I'm glad you have confidence in your own team. Why wouldn't you? They're the f'n Steelers. Do you think that I think you are a fair-weathered fan or something? Gimme a break dude. I'm not sure what your problem is. I like all the moves that Berry made, and we since we are on the Browns board, don't I reserve the right to voice my opinion if I feel someone is being overly critical? Quit trying to make something out of nothing.

FTR: the only one I've ever ignored was Showstopper, that I can remember.

 

I thought I explained myself. Evidently not. I'm not "jealous" of the Browns. I'm not "grumpy" about anything. It doesn't "bother me" that the Browns are improving. My opinions aren't tied into some kind of emotion. They are simply my opinions based on watching and consuming too much football over the years.

 

Are you serious? I just acknowledged all that beach. WTH do you want from me? lol! geez

Good. Lets keep it that way, and keep the personal crap and digging up old stuff to bitch about, out of it....

Onward and upward.

 

LOL I'll do my best. I think we are from too different planets. Where in the world did I dig up old shit or get personal lol?

 

Who has been piling dirt for years? lol! C'mon...

I never thought they were going anywhere, except behind Cleveland in the standings this year.

Agreed. This is going to be fun. Browns getting off the mat is definitely good for the rivalry.

 

Way back in the CBS days, I posted a quite lengthy rant about the (then current) state of the Browns and Steelers and my dying wish for those paths to be reversed for the foreseeable future. To this day, the part of my brain that houses fandom still wishes for that. But, another part of my brain . . . the part that houses common sense, the ability to reason and objectivity . . . tells me that, at best, only half of that dying wish is attainable.

It matters not what either franchise has done for the past 20 years. The only thing that truly matters is what they do starting today and moving forward. Historically, the Browns have been flush with cap space because (a) the league salary cap kept increasing and (b) they sucked so bad at drafting players, very few of them demanded mega-bucks in their 2nd contract. Conversely, the Steelers typically maintained a low to reasonable amount of cap space. They're in a bit of a bind this year not because of mis-management of their cap space but because of the lowering of the cap due to loss of revenue caused by Covid-19. That's something nobody saw coming prior to 2020. Solid front offices manipulate the cap today but manage it for tomorrow.

I've gone on record multiple times stating I respect the Steelers' organization and how they approach the business of professional football. I don't see that changing for the foreseeable future.

BUT - the days of Randy Lerner, Phil Savage, Tom Heckert and Hue Jackson are behind us. For the first time since Al Lerner passed away, I see an owner who (finally) put together a front office capable of manipulating the cap today and managing it tomorrow. I see a front office who apparently communicates with the coaching staff and provides them with players that fit. And I see a group of players that who appear to buy into the culture. That's kinda how the Steelers have been mostly successful for going on five decades.