Bears/Rams - Things to watch (F you Mongo)

In his past 3 starts Foles has faced the 1st, 6th, and 7th ranked pass defenses. Monday night he will face the 4th.

Rams are also 5th in points surrendered so if we are looking for that game where the offense breaks out...this likely isn't it.

On the flip side Rams are just 19th in points scored and truly don't do anything super spectacular on offense.

Darrell Henderson is running it for nearly 5 yards a clip and both he and Malcolm Brown can catch the ball coming out of the backfield...looking at you Danny Trevathan.

Higbee is a very good tight end and Woods/Kupp are top notch receivers.

The key to beating the Rams offense is actually really simple. Jared Goff is a better version, passing wise, of Mitchell Trubisky. He doesn't read defenses all that well...you can confuse him. You can rattle him. You can completely ruin his day with pressure and taking away the run game. He's a good QB that is 100% beatable if you bring heat.

I feel good about this game because Foles enjoys playing under the bright lights. Where that was something Trubisky rarely could do.

Rams can hit the big play. They have pass touchdowns of 28, 25, 55, 56, and 40 yards this year. That worries me with the Bears defense.

On the flip side they have given up 13 touchdowns on defense and only 2 have come from outside of 10 yards.

I am okay with a field position, low scoring game. But a score or two on defense that doesn't get called back from a penalty would be nice. Would be a good game for Robert Quinn to be one of those guys that punishes his former team. Not a good night for Leonard Floyd to do the same.

I like our chances in this game. I think it's low scoring. Foles has to protect the football. Playmakers on defense gotta do what they get paid to do. Go Bears!

 

All of the pressure probably has to come from the interior (meaning we need Hicks to beast the G/C/G) or from Goff's right tackle, Rob Havenstein. LT Andrew Whitworth is the best left tackle in football presently at 38-going on 39 and he just suffocates opposing DLinemen.

Havenstein has been playing decently this year, but since 2015, he's prone to give up sacks (he got benched in December last year for giving up way too many) and penalties (averaging 1 per game).

Those of us wanting more from Robert Quinn should feel good when he lines up on Havenstein (I assume Pagano will switch he/Mack depending on play).

I don't care if I sound like a broken record. Who the fuck is going to block Aaron Donald? That's why I don't feel good. Coward looked outmatched and overwhelmed frequently last week, and if I'm the DC for the Rams, you fucking bet I line up Donald over Coward--the guy starting what could be his 2nd game ever at LG. Bars finished okay after looking atrocious in Tampa when he went in for Daniels. If Bars got manhandled on a sack--what'll Donald do to him?

Two years ago, Nagy showed the NFL how to block Donald, and Daniels was a big part in silencing him in prime time. The blocking schematic works. I don't know if Coward/Bars and Whitehair doubling him is enough.

And I'm perfectly fine doubling the shit out of Donald the whole game and daring Leonard Floyd to beat Massie/Leno 1 on 1. Floyd in LA is just like he was here, invisible when it came to his primary job--rushing the passer (unless you want to count picking on a bad Dallas team).

I have no idea why the Buffalo Bills just released a LG who hasn't given up a sack and surrenders seldom pressures and is a straight run mauler in Quenton Spain (in 2018 he was in Tennessee where Derrick Henry did damage). I've heard conflicting rumors, (one that he wasn't starting and wasn't happy and that the GM just obliged his request for release, the other is he showed up wayyyy fat and out of shape and Buffalo just cut their losses--he's listed at 6'4 330.)

I also have no idea why Ryan Pace hasn't signed him to play LG. I guess it would just make too much sense to upgrade a spot of dire need...

This is where a good D Coordinator can shine. Ev pointed out in the 'thoughts' thread that LA runs a 12 man offense, meaning little substitutions (basically Higbee and Gerald Everett swap at TE).

One of the most curious splits? 93% of rams' run plays are when Henderson is a lone back and Goff is under center. 5 rushes out of shotgun and 1 in an 'I' formation on the year when he has 72 carries on the year. He does the vast majority of his damage on 1st downs (averaging just under 6 ypc). He's only run 3 times on 3rd down, and he tends to get stuffed on 2nd downs.

It should be a dead giveaway when the rams run the ball.

Perhaps not but I want to see ARob on Jalen Ramsey. Troy Hill (the other CB) gets targeted a lot and gives up plenty of catches. SS/box safety Taylor Rapp is great when he has to be an additional linebacker--but if you can ever find a play developing, he's giving up completions too. As good as Ramsey is, he gives up plays--but don't expect too many.

How about a "playmaker" in year 3 of his big 4 year extension playing left tackle?

Oh, you said defense. That's my bad.

Seconded.

 

49ers handed his ass to him.

Yeah. He could single handedly win this game.

I'm simply hoping he forgets where the stadium is.

He should already be at Halas Hall practicing today. No idea why he isn't. Even out of shape he's better than what we have.

Awesome find there. The one thing I miss from Fangio...and from Lovie Smith led defenses were their ability to make an offense 1 dimensional. To totally take away something the offense does well. We have seldom seen that under Pagano...the Vikings game from last season is one of few that come to mind.

That guy sucks. I said he sucked as a rookie and the issue was he had hit his ceiling already in terms of ability. He sucked the year after that...and the year after that. At his best he has been a middle to bottom tier LT. At his very best. He isn't currently at his very best.

In short......I hate the motherfucker.

 

Oh. Forgot to mention...

We get Bill Vinovich ref crew again. We had him a couple weeks ago against the Giants. He called 3 flags on the bears and 5 on NY. I'm guessing because the last time Vinovich saw the rams it was the NFC championship game in Jan of 2019.

As long as its better than the clown crew we had last week. Also, some discipline would be nice...

 

We handled Goff in 2018 under Fangio and 2019 under Pagano. Doesn't mean it's a forgone conclusion it will happen again, but I'm confident we handle him, if pressure is consistent.

I see this game as another coin flip, hopefully it comes up Bears again. As I've said now for the last 4 weeks going into a game, the key is offense. Not screwing up is not enough. Less than 20 points is not enough. Ball control and points. Don't abandon the run early, even if it goes no where for a half. We saw Monty finally get some bigger runs in the second half against Carolina as we wore them down. The Rams are very beatable.

 

The defense is steadily improving as the year goes on. If that continues this week the offense won’t have to do a ton but it will need to show up and not fuck it up. Maybe DHC gets some more snaps like Bush was getting.

I want to be comfortable with Foles as the QB but I just can’t. That int last week was soo bad. The offense needs to start clicking. Nagy has to be less predictable when he runs the ball and Montgomery needs to be more decisive. Not be so scared to bounce it outside.

It is criminal that Coward is the backup plan at LG. It’s criminal how thin and bad the O line is. Pace has brought in ILB’s for tryouts. Signing the dude from ND. Can’t bring in some OL guys for a look?

Another win will not get the Bears much more respect but it would be nice to win again on the national stage.

 

By what metric, is this some PFF DVOA or something? Looks like maybe just passing yards per game:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-passing-yards-per-game

which is as good as any- rushing says the Rams are 12th giving up 109 yards per game.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game

Which means I fully expect Nagy "air mail express" for another game at least. I'm not saying we should "get off the bus running" but it would be so nice to have some balance and particularly attempt to attack the other team where they are weak. If it is shotgun runs that are killing us, design more plays under center, etc. The talent is what it is, but we can't be one dimensional. But a 12th ranked run D means they certainly aren't pushovers, and our line is still what it is so the run WILL struggle early in all likelihood.

I too see a low scoring affair. Whoever makes more mistakes loses, and whoever can keep their composure the most will likely win. This is "technically" an away game but with Covid I don't think home field has been doing much for anyone. The line is still -5.5 for the Rams. I don't see either team running away with it. And if they do, I don't see a way it becomes a sure thing at any point.

You all bring up Aaron Donald, and that's still my biggest concern. If they don't respect the run game, and he can pin his ears back, our line hasn't shown they can block much. Foles is going to be under duress. HOWEVER, Foles biggest asset is that he's generally not an idiot and doesn't panic and gets the ball out quick (outside of some really boneheaded decisions like that int last week). With Mitch, I am terrified this week. With Foles, I'm still worried, but far less so. I don't think they're going to need to blitz to bring pressure, and that means coverage is going to be better, and Foles is going to try to "thread the needle" more with the pressure. I almost guarantee a pick in this game for him.

On the flip side, the Rams can run, they are the 10th ranked rushing offense from the above site, where Carolina was 12th. Right after Donald bringing pressure, I am concerned about the Bears bottling up the run. They stepped it up last week though, so hopefully that will continue. I also am concerned because Goff can hit the big play as bww points out. The Bears will be susceptible here.

Looking at the Rams schedule, I'm not quite sure why they get more "respect" than the Bears, literally all of their wins are against the terrible, terrible NFCE. For fun, I went back and watched the Rams v. Bills game, since that was close and the Bills aren't a complete clown show, and the thing that stood out to me in that high scoring affair? THE RUN GAME. I feel like a broken record at this point. Both the Bills and Rams run to set up the pass, and the Bills got in trouble when they started getting pass happy in the 3rd. There were plays where they didn't get much on the ground, but they'd keep it up and break a big one, which then set up play action or screens. The Rams got back in it by running it down the Bills throat. You have to commit to it, and it has to work. We can argue if it's the talent, the play calling, what have you, but the run game has to start clicking.

The other interesting thing in that game was the absolute pressure Josh Allen was under in that game. I don't see how Foles isn't going to be in a worse boat. It goes without saying maybe, but the Rams dline can bring the heat, and Foles will need to play better than he has, and Nagy needs to call a better game than he has.

Overall, I'm optimistic heading into the game, but get ready for it to be a tight, messy affair that could go either way. Kind of like every single game thus far this year. At some point, there will be a bounce that won't go the Bears way, and that will be enough. Might be this week.

 

Khalil Mack didn’t practice today due to a back injury

 

Looks like he was limited today. Been pretty much the same thing all season so far. Would like him to stay off the injury report for a while. I was/am more worried about Hicks he was out twice this week due to illness but was back today.

 

I hope Pagano is paying as much attention as you. Good stuff.


This game, and actually the season really imo, is now gonna come down to how well the O-Line can play. They have been getting worse pretty much every week to the point where they are back to being a bottom 3-5unit in the league just like last year. They're so bad i would take the Bungles O-Line over these jokers are the Bungles are trying to get their shiny new franchise QB killed.

Like rob says, it is fucking criminal that Pace didnt bring in that dude from Buffalo. Yes its a little more complicated than just plugging a guy in and off he goes, but there's time for him to settle in. There's potentially playoff game outcomes at stake here. If the Bears were 3-3 and looking like going nowhere, a bit like last year, then there's some justification for it. But they've somehow got themselves into an excellent position at 5-1. This is exactly the time for shoring up a weakness and making the team even better.

 

I'll cast the third vote, so that's official.

I think you all did a pretty damn good 'Things to Watch' this week. Keep it up.

 

Gah. Fuck the Texans. Fuck the packers.

Welp. Looks like the bungals are going to get him.

Apparently a foot issue, and at this point—Pace must think an undrafted kid named Traore is good enough...

A backup Olineman from LSU’s team last year.

Also, Jason Spriggs is available. For fucks sake....Plug him in.

Espen advanced stats/splits page and Profootball reference’s rams advanced splits page. Basic stuff that within 5 minutes anyone with minimal effort and basic comprehension can find.

I’m going to guess/hope Chuckles has access to a lot more info than that...

 

If we win tonight, we will end the day being the #1 seed in the NFC.

 

This is probably a mistake, because I feel like I’m due for a letdown, but I woke up super jacked up about tonight’s game.

 

Well we are due for a blowout, a blowout win that is.

 

I had to rub my eyes after reading the last 2 comments ... Bears fans being positive?

Never thought I'd see the day ha ha ...

 

Chicago fans are generally realists. Except for Sox fans....they’re crackheads.

 

You say crackheads like it's a bad thing?

 

I don’t judge.

 

LOL who is your new avatar??