NFL Football on a Tuesday? Sure--but I'm not interested in Titans/Bills when the bears play Sunday against Carolina--a game sure to be fascinating all around. So first there's Teddy Bridgewater--who is quietly having a very good year. He's completing 73% of passes on about 36 throwing attempts per game and has over a 100 QB rating on the year. Add a little drama in that this offseason he picked Carolina because he believed he wouldn't get a fair shot to start against Mitch--so we got Big Dick Nick. He's got two very dependable outside WRs in Robbie Anderson and DJ Moore. Anderson is the size target and Moore is the short speedster. Jaylon Johnson hasn't seen a guy like Moore yet, so it makes for a good match up. Since losing Greg Olsen to Seattle, Teddy has only targeted 2 TEs 13 times total. Here's a stat I've found curious via ESPN's Teddy B splits for 2020, the Panthers love to throw the ball in short passes on 1st and 2nd downs. This year, 69 attempts passing on 1st down (averaging 3 yards per pass on 1st), 65 on 2nd (averaging 4 yards per pass on 2nd). 3rd down it goes down to 34 attempts. Okay, so they like to run the ball on 3rd downs (or just don't get 3rd downs?). Bridgewater has 15 rushes this year, or about 3 per game and when its that low, it's probably not designed (even though since going back to college at Louisville years ago he's a threat to run). So with Christian McCaffrey out, who's running the ball? Remember when the bears had a "key free agent" signing last year at running back--and the guy was a complete turd? Yeah--THAT Mike Davis is averaging 5 yards per carry in 46 runs (about 11 per game since becoming RB1 week 2) and since McCaffrey went down week 2, he's been targeted out of the backfield 33 times (for context, Moore has 37 targets in 5 games, Anderson 47.) Mike fucking Davis. This is sure to cause some nausea, because Bridgewater in the 15 times he's rushed--averages 5 yards per run (75 yards on 15 carries). So spying the backfield 1st/2nd downs will be critical. Who's feeling good about Noquan/Trevathan for that job? If you do--pass me whatever you are smoking. Panthers OLine is far from perfect. Teddy's been sacked plenty and even though it was a game and change, McCaffrey was averaging 3 yards per carry. They are far from bums. Bears O versus Panthers D This will be a bit of a flip of Tampa and Indy. Panthers have the 4th best pass defense, giving up 222 yards per game. Run game they are bottom 7, giving up 133 yards per game and 5.1 ypc. Every one of us screaming 'run the ball' in the game thread should be feeling great. The Panthers haven't really gotten to the QB in 2020, averaging 1 sack per game. Three of their 4 starting DLinemen are on the injured list at the moment. But per scheme, they run a 4-2-5 with rookie Jeremy Chinn being the hybrid box safety/extra linebacker. He's quite active in the run game, leading the team with 44 tackles on the year. If you had a fullback, this would be the perfect game to showcase him. Shaq Thompson and Tahir WHitehead are solid linebackers. Names in the secondary don't wow you, but you have to respect it because they have the 4th best pass defense. Rasul Douglas and Donta Jackson--a back up because Eli Apple is injured are the starting corners, so you have to like AROB/Mooney's chances there. Especially when Atlanta's, Tampa's, Chargers' WR1 tagged them for 100+ yards. Tre Boston is a dependable safety. TEs haven't boded well, so those of us antsy about a Kmet breakout game will probably be stymied another week. Oakland's guy Waller is the best TE performance, 6 catches for 46 yards. Kind of doing this on the fly. Feel free to add/discuss.
I haven't watched the Panthers play at all this year. So I'll just speak to Chicago: With Daniels being out, it's going to be that much more important for Nagy to have a good game. I think this offense runs best from under center, but I think Foles prefers to exclusively be a shotgun QB. It's going to be really hard to get the run game going from the gun in a zone run with a backup interior OL. Nagy is going to try the typical Patterson sweep crap early, and if / when it doesn't work, we'll likely see the run game abandoned. I hope I'm wrong on that, and Nagy comes in with a real plan to make the run game successful. But I'm not holding my breath.
Carolina is right there with the LA Chargers for me in teams I thought would be bottom of the barrel awful and just aren't. Good writeup here...this won't be an easy game. It's very winnable though. I'd like to see a good run game from the Bears and a quick pass rush on the opposite side. Seems like a good week for a Bears defensive TD.
Nagy rarely played him, and when he did, no more than a carry or 2 per game. By contrast Matt Ruhle is committed to the run no matter who is back there. And Davis looked really good against the Falcons, although everyone looks good against the Falcons. Our run defense scares me, particularly the ILBs. Davis may have a point to prove to Nagy and Pace this weekend as well. I have no idea what happens in this game. Anything seems possible, from a Bears blowout to a Panthers blowout. But most likely it will come down to the final minute again, and hopefully we end up on the right side again. On my mind the last few days:. Nagy was brought here to fix the offense and in 2 years + 5 games, we're still one of the worst in the league. We struggle to score 20 points consistently. This team hasn't run the ball consistently well since John Fox was here. The TE position remains a dud. The playcalling baffling. But yet our record is decent in the same time frame. So he's doing something right. I'll keep repeating that I want to see this offense finish 16th overall. If Nagy in three fucking seasons cannot accomplish being average, he needs to be forced to surrender playcalling and play designing duties in 2021.
This is where we see what Nagy is made of. This game plan should SCREAM run the ball, then PA. I am suspicious that Nagy is in "new toy" territory with Foles, will run some gadget bullshit Patterson run that doesn't work and abandons it wholesale. Lets also not forget what a big loss Daniels is going to be. I wish I wasn't so sure we'd see *at least* a 60/40 pass/run ratio. But we'll see, the run game early on this season was clicking, though we have lost Cohen too. Does Nagy not have faith in Monty, or is Monty not that good? Speaking of old posters, you guys remember gridironboogie and his prophetic call that Cedric Benson would come back to Chicago and run for 200 yards? It's such a cliche'd thing that former Bears players come back and light up this team. We contained Trey Burton though, when I thought he had an even chance of revenge. Of all the matchups in this game, Davis is the one that worries me the most. The Bears have been susceptible to big runs, and if they commit to running against the Bears this could be a big day - particularly if Noquan keeps "tackling" the way he has. The thing about this team that gets me the most, is the offense has spent 90%+ of every game lounging, and miraculously pulling out the stops when necessary. The Panthers are a good team. This game will be close probably and could go either way, but if Carolina establishes the run early it could be a long day and a loss for sure, maybe even a blowout. The one scenario I can't envision, is the Bears running away with it. I have zero faith in Nagy as a playcaller and in this oline to execute. But given how wrong I usually am, here's to hoping I keep the streak alive.
I started thinking about this more, and rather than rely on my memory, looked up some stats. Monty's dropoff this year coincides with Cohen going down / Foles coming in. Atlanta's run D is not great, but that's when Monty started being less effective. So is it: 1. Foles in shotgun making this running scheme harder? 2. Cohen was giving enough of a different look to open things up for Monty? 3. Just a great pair of run Defenses and they will run on the Panthers? 4. Something else? Stats-wise, Monty is 3.67 ypc in 2019, maybe 1-2 receptions per game (a few zeros). 3.9 ypc this year (2.7/2.9 the last two weeks), and a surprising 7 catches against the Bucs. Cohen had a shocking 3.3 ypc last year but had 5 or so catches per game.
#1 and #3 are likely reasons. Also Nagy just not committing to the run the last 2 games, as the rushing attempts for Monty show.
Well this game sure seemed a hell of a lot easier a month ago didnt it. Panthers are rolling, won their last 3 games, scored 30+ points 3 times already. Defense making strides. - James Daniels going down is so damned annoying cos if ever there was a game for the Bears to re-establish the run this is it. I actually had no problem with the run game being under-used last week, which isnt like me, but it was clear they were going nowhere and the ball had to be thrown in order to win. Well this is the other way round. I dont quite know how they achieve this tbh, Leno already stunk in the run game and Whitehair has quietly turned into a bit of a weakling, getting blown back multiple times a game. Ifedi & Massie have seem to have struck a nice partnership tho on that right side so i would def be making that side the focal point of my run game. You have to run left at some point of course, but whenever possible id be trying to use motioning TEs/pulls for Ifedi/lead blocking to try and increase your odds. As pat says, you'd LOVE a FB for this game. The Holtz experiment is nearly over for me. He did relatively well last season having been thrust into the role, but this year he's not getting enough done. FBs have a fundamental punisher mentality and if there's someone in the hole they give them everything they've got. Holtz tries, and you'd like it to work cos it opens up new wrinkles in the Offense kinda like Juscyzkzwkyzk for the 49ers. But i simply dont think he's physical enough. All that said, Nagy really has to commit to trying to run the ball sunday and that will unavoidably entail Leno, Holtz and all the gang. - Its still early, and he was reportedly never coming here anyway cos of the Bears being Trubisky fools, but rob's offseason infatuation with Teddy B is looking a lot less Fatal Attraction & a lot more Sleepless in Chicago these days. And they're only paying him $21mil FFS. - I was big on the Bears drafting Jeremy Chinn in the 2nd round in April and he's made a fine start to his career. It would've been an even better move than i realised at the time, just think about how many times on passing downs Trevathan has been isolated and his lack of speed taken advantage of, then substitute in Chinn *sigh* - Panthers have a lot of DLs on the injury report to start the week, really hope that continues. Def 1 & 3 imo. A shotgun QB and this team's running game are not a match and thats a problem for sure. Foles was under center a fair bit in the Bucs game tho so i hope this is something they are working to incorporate more. Because we know from 2019 what the Bears running game from shotgun looks like and its crap. Also the Bears have just faced two nails run D's and that is def part of it. I am 100% a Monty fan, its actually ridiculous how many tackles the guy slips over the course of a game. Problem is its not reflected in a flashy statsheet so know-nothings point the finger in the wrong direction. But on most other teams in this league Monty is stringing together 1,000yard seasons. He may not be a 1,400yard back but he will give you consistent very good production and could be a big asset in the passing game. A guy with his hands and ability to use blockers would be deadly on a team that knew how to run a screen. Just on the subject of know-nothings....the "experts" around the league seem to love the idea of the Bears picking up Leveon Bell. I mean Pace is def stupid enough to do it, but which part of this plan is the real seller here? The part where the Bears bring a cancer into the locker room, the fact Bell's style requires blocking the Bears never provide, or that the last thing the Bears need is someone else coming in to take carries off Monty? Beyond idiotic. So more likely than Pace signing a Guard then.
Kyle Juszczyk is a rare talent at a lost position. The dude knows and understands the game, formations, and defensive plays. Fuck man, I'd settle for Tyler Clutts level at this point. Holtz is a TE playing FB, and I too wonder why the hell he's on the team sometimes. He has no knack for the FB spot. He whiffed hard last week on a zone run that Monty actually had a hole. I'm thinking 3 and 4. Other teams, including 'Andy Reid' tree guys have almost ZERO problem running from shotgun. I don't think Foles has anything to do with it either because I don't buy the stigma that 'when Mitch was behind center, he's always a threat to run' meanwhile Foles would just trip over his big dick. Before Mitch took the bench, I don't think there was ever a designed run for him (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). The simple zone blocking worked against teams when the bears were running semi-successfully earlier this year, and the Bucs and Colts each were top 6 run defenses. I'll go 4 because I do think the OLine has been especially bad when opposing DCoordinators "guess right." When Monty is using all of his moves while still 4 yards deep in his own backfield just to fight for a 1 yard loss, the problem isn't QB being a statue/not a threat to run or individual talent at RB (which is why I laugh when other fans pining for Le'Veon Bell think he will make a difference with this OLine). This is where criticisms of Leno and Whitehair especially are valid (not that the other 3 spots are off the hook). The bears interior OLine is weaker in the run game than it is strong. Its going to get weaker because Juan Castillo said the other day during coach press time that Rashad Coward (who's never played LG) and Alex Bars are both fighting for the starting spot Sunday. How does 4 get fixed? Find fantastic talents on the OLine. Starting at tackle. Leno being atrocious has masked that Massie is still below average and painful to watch sometimes (unless you're running). He's been a great 'hammer.' He's excellent in stopping the run, and needs to be if you're going to go 'smaller' on defense by running a 4-2-5. His weakness is pass defense. He's been targeted 25 times this year and allowed 16 catches, giving up 6 and change yards per catch. He's allowed a lot of YAC. He's got more than Gipson does at SS for the bears and even the guy I can't stand--Buster Skrine. Now Skrine isn't playing 90+% of plays, Gipson is closer (especially with Bush out). I still remain fine on passing on Chinn. I have no problems with Jaylon Johnson Also, to help on passing downs; while we were sleeping:
He doesn't commit to the run and doesn't commit to letting Monty get rhythm. It's not easy for a back to get a carry...and then wait 10 plays for his next one. Change of pace guys like Patterson can do that just fine. But your main guy needs to get warm.
The Bears had options this past offseason at the QB position. They chose to add Foles. Gave up a draft pick to get him. Teddy B is looking good. Same with Cam. Dalton is going to get his shot. Foles needs to show the fuck up. Everyone is talking about how they like him wanting more control of the offense. They loved his little spat with Nagy on the sideline. You know what I would like. For him to hit the open receivers more. How about that. The first 3 games started to convince me that Nagy can indeed call a balanced attack. Then the last 2 weeks happened and we are right back to the bottom of the league in rush attempts. We don’t need to be a top 5 rushing attack. But we can’t be a bottom 5 either.
Hit the send button early. A little more on the run game. I like Montgomery. I want to like him more but I can’t help but notice that while he is great at breaking tackles he is lacking when it comes to burst. You never see him pop a big run. He might come through the scrum for a nice gain but you never see him cut and hit a second gear. He also doesn’t seem to like bouncing it outside. The Bears changed from an inside zone to outside zone running scheme. And from what I have seen so far Monty will take the short gain up the middle instead of stretching it out and letting blocks set up on the edge. One thing that sucks is that coach Castio will not make the trip as he is quarantined after coming in contact with a COVID positive person this week.
You also never get to see him develop a rhythm in a game as BWW pointed out. He barely gets his feet wet and he gets pulled from the pool. No, but you need a thick skin and a good sense of humor.
