This really is nothing like '05 though. Rodgers was a legit No.1 overall candidate before an inexplicable fall. Love was no more than 50/50 to even go in the 1st round and is a big project from a weak conference with clear flaws in his game. Accepting that we never truly know how a guy will transition to the pros, Rodgers was outstanding value as a pick. Love is terrible value as a pick. This move actually tells us a couple of things: A team that really believes its only a couple of pieces away from a championship and in win now mode doesn't make this move. The Packers were highly flattered last year by both a 13-3 record and a NFCCG appearance. We knew this. Now we know they know this too. The move for Love, and that fact that Rodgers didn't appear to be in the loop for it, also suggests all is not well internally in GB. I find it all very surprising tbh, the one thing sure to piss off Erin the most is a move like this. Personally I love this pick. It doesn't make the Peckers better, it doesn't make sense and it cost multiple draft picks. Its all well and good saying let Love sit and learn behind a future HOFer but do you see Erin playing mentor type to Love? Cos I sure don't. And when exactly is Love supposed to play? Rodgers has 3years of massive dead cap ahead. You gonna sit Love till year 4, really? You gonna trade your future HOFer so you can play your next future HOFer? Sounds familiar. I guess that's why they call it lightening in a bottle, because it happens so often lol. Dream on cheeseheads.
I don't know a damn thing about the prospects this year - it's the first year in my adult life I've just done zero scouting of any kind. So I'm all into buying the idea that this was a terrible pick. I will subscribe to this entire post as enthusiastically as possible. I just hate the idea that, because they drafted a QB I don't know FOR SURE is complete garbage, the possibility exists that they might end up with another starting QB, and not have to feel the pain of the period between QB's. And I would hate that with every fiber of my being.
1 Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow QB LSU Obvious pick that I like a great deal. Cincy gets their franchise quarterback for Zac Taylor to build around and if they can make the right moves around him the Bengals are back in the hunt in the AFC North within 3 seasons. A+ 2 Washington Redskins Chase Young DE Ohio State Another obvious pick. Chase Young is a generational talent on the defensive line and will be the tip of the spear for new head coach Ron Rivera's defense. A+ 3 Detroit Lions Jeff Okudah CB Ohio State This pick could have gone to either Okudah or Derrick Brown and I would have been fine with it. The Lions need help on the defensive side of the ball so getting a premier player at the position needed to be the focal point of their first pick. A 4 New York Giants Andrew Thomas OT Georgia I expected them to go with Isaiah Simmons here (top rated player on my war board) but I have zero problems with the Giants selecting Thomas. It's a position of need and Andrew is the highest rated tackle on my board. A 5 Miami Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama The Dolphins are able to get what may be their franchise quarterback of the future at pick #5. That's a solid get for Miami, especially considering they didn't have to spend any other draft capital to move up and get Tua. He'll need to prove he can stay healthy but the potential for a quality long term starter is there. A 6 Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert QB Oregon Just like the Dolphins before them, the Chargers are able to sit tight and take their preferred passer at their original draft spot. I believe there are enough moldable qualities in Justin's game for him to be the new face of the franchise and considering the ability to get him without spending additional draft capital, this feels like a win. B+ 7 Carolina Panthers Derrick Brown DT Auburn Maybe new head coach Matt Rhule really does have a knack for rebuilding programs? Taking Derrick Brown was such an easy thing to do. It's a position of need coupled with the best player at that position in this class. A+ 8 Arizona Cardinals Isaiah Simmons LB Clemson When a player like Isaiah Simmons is available at this point in the draft it's simply a 'no-brainer' to make that pick. The Cardinals are quickly winning me over with how they are remolding the franchise under Kliff Kingsbury. A+ 9 Jacksonville Jaguars C. J. Henderson CB Florida Solid pick for the Jags as Henderson has the ability to become a lock down corner if he continues to improve his game. He could have been taken in Okudah's spot and I would have been comfortable with it. A+ 10 Cleveland Browns Jedrick Wills OT Alabama The Browns had to go after a tackle early in the draft so this pick was easy to see coming from a positional standpoint. However, the player choice is interesting and I have Wills as the #4 tackle prospect in this class. A 11 New York Jets Mekhi Becton OT Louisville The Jets were another team that needed to go after a tackle early so it's not a surprise that they decided to pull the trigger on the one name that has been up and down in value all week. Becton is an athletic freak and has the ability to become a stud as a pro. However, he doesn't come without question marks so there is work to be done here. He's the #3 ranked tackle on my board. A 12 Las Vegas Raiders Henry Ruggs WR Alabama The Mayock/Gruden Raiders do the Al Davis thing and take the fastest receiver available. However, in Ruggs case he also happens to be a lot more than just speed. It's a good pick for Vegas to start the night with. A 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (trade with SF) Tristan Wirfs OT Iowa The Bucs knew they had to get some help in front of Tom Brady, so much so that they were willing to make a trade to swap spots with the 49ers. Wirfs is the #2 rated tackle on my board and this represents good value for Tampa Bay at pick #13. A 14 San Francisco 49ers (trade with TB) Javon Kinlaw DT South Carolina The best defensive line in football trades away one of the best players in the league on the defensive line. The sky is falling? Nope, they just go out and replace him with another stud on the DL. Kinlaw is the #2 rated defensive lineman on my board and profiles as a day one starter in the NFL. A 15 Denver Broncos Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama If Drew Lock can become a better passer in play-action situations (better accuracy in the intermediate from sideline to sideline) then the Broncos just drafted the perfect receiver. Jeudy is an excellent route runner with the ability to sell outright falsehoods with his feet and trap defensive backs in limbo. I preferred Jerry to San Francisco but it will be interesting to see if he can reach his ceiling calling the highest elevation in the league home. A 16 Atlanta Falcons A. J. Terrell CB Clemson Atlanta needed to address multiple spots on defense (DL, LB, DB) so having a defender go here is no surprise. However, the player is a bit of one, but I like Terrell to be one of the better corners to come out of this draft. A-
17 Dallas Cowboys CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma It's not what some would call a position of need with Dallas, but you cannot argue with the value. CeeDee Lamb is the top rated wide receiver on my board and ranks 3rd all-time since 2012. The value here is rock solid and Dak Prescott is getting another game changing weapon for his offense. A+ 18 Miami Dolphins Austin Jackson OT USC The Dolphins do the smart thing and immediately start adding to the talent that will be protecting Tua. Jackson has some work to get done in polishing his game, but the upside here is tremendous. He's the #5 ranked tackle on my board. A 19 Las Vegas Raiders Damon Arnette CB Ohio State This is easily my least favorite pick of the first round as Arnette comes in ranked as our #14 overall corner. On video, I see a really solid college defensive back that will struggle to keep up with receivers on the outside at the pro level. His path to staying in the NFL and getting a chance to start may come at a move to free safety as the mirror ability and explosion needed to stick to receivers is lacking. C- 20 Jacksonville Jaguars K'Lavon Chaisson EDGE LSU Chaisson is my #3 ranked EDGE for this class but the pick is a solid one for a defense that is going to have to replace Yannick in the near to immediate future. The upside is obvious but he may be a bit closer to his ceiling than what some are projecting. It fills a need and does so with a player that profiles as an immediate contributor. A 21 Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Reagor WR TCU The Eagles make a choice at a position of obvious need, but I'm not sure they got the best value available with this pick. I like Reagor to be a long time contributor as a pro but the Eagles needed to add a true #1 wideout and they selected more of a role player with a likely WR2 limitation. Jalen is the #7 wide receiver on my board. A- 22 Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson WR LSU Minnesota follows Philly's pick of a receiver with one of their own and I think they likely got the better value. Justin Jefferson profiles with the potential to be a #1 reception target in any offense. If the coaching staff in Minnesota can get Jefferson to become more physical in his approach he has the talent to become one of the better receivers in the NFL. A 23 Los Angeles Chargers (trade with NE) Kenneth Murray LB Oklahoma Murray easily could have been a top 16 pick so this move up by the Chargers is a great call. Los Angeles needed to solidify the interior of their linebacking group and Kenneth will be an immediate starter on a defense that just became a little more frightful. A+ 24 New Orleans Saints Cesar Ruiz OL Michigan Let me start off by saying I don't completely hate this pick. However, Ruiz is my #10 ranked offensive lineman in this class so there feels like a real disconnect in value here. With that being said, the Saints obviously put a premium on keeping pressure out of the gut for Brees and considering they have no second round pick, this makes a little more sense. They likely could have traded back some in the first and still got Cesar but it's tough to know for sure. B+ 25 San Francisco 49ers (trade with MIN) Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State The 49ers definitely needed to add to the wide receiver group and Aiyuk has the necessary traits to mold into what is required within that offense. Brandon is the #8 rated receiver on my board but the value here is good enough to justify moving up for what San Fran obviously considered to be a must get player. A- 26 Green Bay Packers (trade with MIA) Jordon Love QB Utah State Easily the biggest surprise of the evening, the Packers make a trade up in the first to snag a quarterback with Aaron Rodgers still having 5 years on his current deal. Love has the necessary tool set to become a starting NFL passer and bench time behind a player like Rodgers for multiple seasons is probably the perfect scenario for him to find success. However, this pick does nothing to help the Packers win now in an NFC that is stronger at the top now than the last time Green Bay was competing for a championship. Jordon is my #4 rated quarterback. B 27 Seattle Sehawks Jordyn Brooks LB Texas Tech Jordyn Brooks is my #5 rated linebacker and feels like more of a mid second round pick, based mainly on the idea that I think he is likely at his ceiling as a player. Seattle doesn't make their regular first round trade down but they make a selection that would have better fit value wise if they did. B+ 28 Baltimore Ravens Patrick Queen LB LSU The Ravens get outstanding value at the bottom of the first with my #2 ranked linebacker in this class, Patrick Queen. There's a lot to like about what Patrick brings to the table in an evolving NFL that requires linebackers to cover and close with speed to remain on the field on most downs. Queen can do that an I expect him to be a high level pro for the next decade. A+ 29 Tennessee Titans Isaiah Wilson OL Georgia This is an interesting pick for the Titans. We knew they needed help on the offensive line but instead of selecting a more pure tackle prospect they opted to go with a player that fits better into a multi-positional role early in his career. It will be interesting to see how he develops as a pro. Wilson is my #8 ranked OL in this class. A- 30 Miami Dolphins (trade with GB) Noah Igbinoghene CB Auburn This pick gets a slight ding from me because I believe there were three other players available at corner that would have potentially made a more immediate impact but the upside with Noah is real. It makes a bit more sense for the Dolphins to gamble on him here as well, considering the have two competent starters and Igbinoghene will get a chance to develop his game more fully before being forced into a full time outside role. Noah is the #7 rated CB on my board. A- 31 Minnesota Vikings (trade with SF) Jeff Gladney CB TCU This is the second time that the Vikings basically looked at the team in front of them and decided to take potentially a better player at the same position. Gladney profiles as an immediate contributor in sub-package football with the ability to become an outside starter in the right scheme. Gladney is my #6 ranked corner. A 32 Kansas City Chiefs Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB LSU This is a pure luxury pick that I believe to be less luxurious than what some would believe. The comparisons to Brian Westbrook are noted, and I don't really have a gripe with them. I'll just point out that the athletic measurables are very similar and Westbrook was doing his thing in an era with a lot less speed overall. Clyde will be an immediate contributor in the passing attack but will probably concede downs to a more prototypical back in rushing situations. The #32 overall pick is not the place to be selecting players that may ultimately split a large sum of snaps on the field, but when you have a stacked offense it's a little less of an issue, I guess. Edwards-Helaire is the #6 ranked running back on my board that just became the first running back selected in the 2020 draft. B-
Tim have you ever thought about giving up your day job and becoming a full time scout for an NFL team? You’re pretty good at that stuff. Of course you would need a good expense account to pay for all the beers you would drink while watching the game.
Appreciate it, but I don't have the resume and I have no desire to be on the road and away from my family.
Hey I hear you buddy. After the stupendous luck those cousin fuckers have had in the QB department for the last 25years who wouldn't. Its a shame you didn't get a chance to do your usual excellent draft prep, I would've liked to hear your thoughts Love(I still remember you unequivocally stating that famous jameis would be a bust as soon as the pick went in. You were right). But the truth is its hard to know for sure any QB will be garbage, like I said. Any QB can succeed or fail. Love could succeed, but there's a hell of a lot between him now and becoming a franchise QB. Time will tell on that I guess, but for now console yourself with the thought the Packers had a chance to get a real good immediate impact player for next season and instead they got nothing. Not just that, they flushed a 4th rounder to jump over teams who wouldn't have taken Love anyway. So that's two draft picks spent and no improve made to the team next season. Or the season after that. And its not just that, with the modern dynamic between QB salaries and the CAP, one of the best ways to get to the SB is thru a QB on a rookie deal. 6 of the last 7 SBs have featured a QB on a rookie deal(I think), and the other guy each year tended to be Brady. The best case scenario for Love is he sits thru 2 years of his rookie deal and sees the field his 3rd, when he will still be learning/gaining experience/making in-game mistakes. And that's the best case scenario. The Packers will get very little benefit from Love's rookie deal in terms of cap management. Its not like it was even when Rodgers entered the league.
Not into this like in years passed but I did call 12 CB/OL in round 1. I thought the impact LB’s would go earlier but like WR there is depth in this draft. Man I didn’t even know Jeudy was behind Ruggs.
The one thing I would have to argue with you is how much work Love will still need by his third season. Not many guys get the luxury of learning behind a great, from the bench, even for one season. If Love is good enough to be a starter in the league, then two seasons learning from the bench should be plenty to get him prepared. If it isn’t, then he’s a total bust outright and third or fourth year makes no difference.
Re Green Bay: weapons or not Rodgers was drafted 15 years ago. If a scout pounded the table I can see why they picked the future and he was the closest QB in skill set and measurables to Mahomes. Deep class for WR and OL they can still get him weapons and protection.
and if a 37 Year old Rogers is injured week 2, now you got something to build on. It was a huge gamble I agree . Was it smart to move up , we don’t know if Miami was getting other calls.
Put me on record as saying “Man, you guys are kind of hard on the Chiefs for the LSU back”. Honestly could surprise a few of you. I saw him play probably as much as anyone in college. He had a legit shot to be the first guy taken.
I also called Winston a bust based on attitude he was JaMarcus Russell Light. Another guy with a sour attitude was Josh Rosen out of UCLA the Cardinals tossed out after one year.
From the looks of this, your feeling is that the top end of this draft is full of impct players. I hope it's deep enough for the Steelers get a good one at 49.
They can ride him on the pine for 3 years on Rodgers current contract and dump Aaron in the final year of his deal before the ink on Love's extension is dry.
