I just got back to my hotel room,half in the bag, hoping to see all kinds of banter about the game. No Mongo’s things to watch? No conjecture of any kind? What the fuck? I’ve been thinking about this game and I think the Bears win fairly easily - IF Nagy doesn’t get cute. IF he’s smart, he will pound Jordan Howard directly at Donald all day long (25 carries) and mix in some play action and slants and screens and work the middle against their shitty inside backers with Burton. And a couple long tosses to ARob or Cohen to keep them honest. And a few jet sweeps and misdirection type plays to keep them honest. On the defensive side, I’ve said this before, but Jared Goff does not scare me. He gets pressure and he turns into a spaz. He’s a big dorky statue and will fold if Mack and Hicks and an occasional blitzer can pressure him. This game is all about the pass rush for us. And Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks do not scare me against our corners. I see a lot of man coverage happening. California boy is only 62% accurate on the road with 9tds v 5 picks. And he has to come to Soldier Field, in the cold, with a jacked up crowd. Stop the run, run the ball, stop the Rams. I am not a betting guy. But I think the Bears win this outright by 10. Peace out, I’m tanked, probably won’t remember this post. Your pal, Bear-man
He's not going to power Jordan Howard all day long. The more I study the run game, the more frustrated I get. Howard's biggest runs and biggest negative gains (tackled in backfield for loss) all on same play. Zone run off the tackle (it was heavy off Leno's side last week). Some plays it worked wonders, as Leno got to second level and we saw 8 yard chunks for gains. Other times it failed when the nickel blitzed or the Will/Sam stayed home or read/diagnosed the play right away. As for the Rams? They're a damn good team, but beatable, and I copy Sean Payton's model from a few weeks ago. Pick on Marcus Peters. All day. Doesn't matter the receiver or player he lines up on. Attack him. Talib came back last week and was solid, but Peters hasn't been playing the capital the Rams gave up when they acquired him from KC. Peters is a liability. You're going to have to get creative with Aaron Donald. Dude should only be in a 1-on-1 block when the play is rolling away from his side of the field. He disrupts so well, gets low, and is sneaky powerful. He's the lightning, and Suh is the power DT, or the thunder. Suh I'm less worried about, because like old days, he still takes plays off. Donald though, that's a problem. I also want to see Fangio get creative. Jared Goff, while not a statue, has a tendency to just stand in the pocket, even if it means throwing at the absolute last second and taking a whack or two. It works for McVay's offense. It works well quite usually. But it still means he stands back there all day. Hicks and Mack are going to have to win match ups. Floyd/Lynch, whatever the ratio of plays they get are also going to have to win their battles. Fangio also has some luck. The other day listing to AM670, a scout brought up that the Rams favor only one personnel package since Cooper Kupp went down. TE, 3WR, and Gurley. Since Kupp went down, the Rams almost always line up with that package. Gurley, Higbee, Woods, Cooks, and Reynolds. Short end: McVay's best 5 guys are constantly on the field. Rough them up. We all recall the game where Megatron went over the middle and Lance Briggs in the fugly orange uni gave him a shoulder, and then we stopped seeing the WR's impact on the game. Even with tighter rules, Cooks has to get smacked, and early. Dude is too quick, and while Fuller and Prince are both having excellent years, Cooks can shred them if Goff is given the time. Cooks, as talented as he is also has some Percy 'sniffles' Harvin tendencies, where he misses plays off of bruises. While I don't think its that big a difference, some do. The land of beaches and sunshine Chicago will not be. Low 20s, upper teens with 5-15 mph winds is the present Sunday night forecast, per weather.com. Meaning soldier field will be swirling. Barfparkey better be prepared. Uhhh, it goes without saying, but don't forget how to tackle. Especially that Todd Gurley guy. And Cooks. You cannot get lazy with either of those two, or you give up a 70 yard home run play. McVay LOVES to run Gurley off of Whitworth, a damn good LT even in his upper 30s. Over 50% of Gurley's runs in 2018, averaging 5.7 YPC off of their LG/Whitworth and 8.8 YPC outside Whitworth between the left sidelines. He's averaging 3 YPC up the gut, about 10-20% of run calls, and 4-4.5 ypc on the right side/outside the RT towards the right sidelines. So the left side of the Rams OLine is probably where I'm parking Akeim Hicks for a lot of the game. John Bullard/RRH/Nichols are going to have to be effective against Rob Havenstein, a plus run blocker and below average pass blocker. Possible good news? Whitworth and starting C John Sullivan did not practice Friday and are on injury report for Rams listed as questionable (injury report as of Friday afternoon). Sullivan with an arm injury, nothing I could find on Whitworth, possible illness? Possible bad news? Eddie Jackson did not practice Friday and is questionable with a knee injury. Dion Bush took 1st team reps. Uh oh. Mitch, you cant sail passes on Talib or Joyner. That being said, I line up Allen Robinson in the slot as much as i can if I'm Nagy. Wade Phillips loves the 5'8 Bob Sanders-esque Joyner, however, he (and Peters) got shredded by Michael Thomas and a lot of receivers with size. If this factor matters, Rams control their own destiny, and probably maintain their bye with a very easy schedule after the bears. Home against Philly, in Arizona, home against San Francisco. They can afford to lose this game. We discussed the bears and vikes, their remaining 4 weeks. I feel nauseated rooting for Pete Carroll. But the vikings are just dumb enough to lose to a team they're better than. BWW talked about the magic number being 3, and hopefully Nagy doesn't let Minny stick around.
You can't possibly think Nagy gives Howard anywhere near 25 carries, even if he were more productive than he's been. Playing keep away sounds like a good strategy against an offense that scores 35 points a game if you can run the ball consistently, which we can't. We're going to need Trubs to be sharp but also his ability to extend drives with his legs, and elude Donald. The Rams secondary is a weakness outside of Talib. Their safeties and LBs are vulnerable, maybe Nagy tries to exploit that with Cohen or even Shaheen. I think the Bears offense is fully capable of making several big plays against them. But we can't win a shootout. We're going to need constant pressure on Goff, who is good but not great. Mack has disappeared in some games but has showed up in prime time, need him to show up big time now. Our secondary is good but not physical. We don't have that Kam Chancellor type to intimidate WRs going over the middle. The Rams WRs don't scare me at all but if we don't get pressure on Goff then they will get open for chunks. More often than not history has shown that "Bear weather" can be a disadvantage for the Bears. We lost to a dome team in XLI playing a wet soggy field, with the Bears constantly fumbling and losing footing throughout the game. Then there was the NFC Championship against the 49ers. As you mention it will be a challenge for the kickers and if it is close, could come down to that. This would have been a good week for Parkey to have practiced at Soldier Field. I actually think this is a huge game for the Rams given their legimate Super Bowl ambitions. They don't want to play in New Orleans for the NFC Championship and they don't have the tiebreaker since they lost the head to head. Winning 3 of the final 4 may not get them the #1 seed if the Saints win out. If the Rams lose this their road to the Super Bowl becomes really tough. But to me this could be the "Signature" win we have been talking about this team needing, that many of us thought the Vikings win was. This could be the win where we look back at the end of this season, next season, 5 years, 20 years down the line and say that this is the moment when we knew the Bears had arrived. I really think winning this game would be the defining game of this team's upward trajectory. Losing this game means we still have a ways to go, it also means our playoff chances become a little more precarious. My rational prediction is that we lose this game by 10+ points, that we're inferior to the Rams in both talent and execution. My heart is saying the Bears will be pumped up for this game in a way we haven't seen in years and we come out and administer a beat down of monumental proportions
I am curious to see how this game unfolds. Another prime time outing and marquee type game. Mitch coming off a 2 week “bye”. How the bears respond to a loss against the then 3-8 Giants. Will this game be like Miami? Or the Patriots? My money is on a Patriots-Esque game where the Bears keep the score close but show they are still a year at least away. There is no doubt the Rams are a good team. They won’t be looking past us. I also don’t think they’re sitting on the sideline thinking “they’re not the reason this was moved to prime time, we are!”. But stranger things have happened. I’d love to see the 10 point win bear-man outlines.
We need to... Play mistake free on offense. Shut down the run. Get 2 turnovers on defense. Do that and you win.
Sorry guys, it's been a crazy week. May not be able to get this in this week. Big game. Don't see this as a game we can win.
Ha ha.. revisiting. I do recall posting something... I’m not sure I even agree with my own analysis, but I like some of it. And that’s alright. Your pal, Bear-man
After yeilding only 1 turnover in previous 3 games, we've turned the ball over 7 times in the last 3. And that does\n't even take into account the for the 4 or 5 other fumbles we recovered and the 2 or 3 sure INT's that the opponent D just simply dropped. 250 yards on the ground over last 2 weeks. (111 and 141). A lot of those yards have been coming in the 2nd half. Interestingly , the Rams running game was really only shut down when they abandoned it when they got into shoot outs with the Saints and Chiefs. If they get a lead on us, they're going to repeatedly hand the ball to Gurley and beat us down. This is one area we've been consistent in all year. Although last week was the first week all season that we actually lost the turnover battle. I think even if we do all that, we're still in trouble. I'd like to say that my confidence was shaken last week due to a loss to a hapless NY team. But, I started going through all the matchups trying to put together my things to watch, and just kinda gave up. The mismatches are across the board and mostly in favor of the Rams. The only wild cards we hold is Cohen, some unknowns with Shaheen, Nady's play-calling, and homefield. I did go back and see what the coldest game they've played this season was. Every game except the Broncos game was played in 60 degrees or above. But, they did beat the Broncos in Denver with a game time temp of 25. So it being cold, isn't a factor other than I'm going to be cold... They are where we need to be next year.
I should make drunk predictions more often. That was pretty fuckin’ close. I know I’m not that smart sober.
