If you would have told me that when we face the Lions at home this year, we'd be solidly in first place with a legit chance to curb stomp the Lions out of any hope of making a run, I would have told you that you're crazy. That's where we are. On a negative note, the Bears a 1-9 against the Lions over the last 10 games. Think about that. Same record as Bears v Packers. This is a critical game. I am labeling it as a "must win". We must beat the Lions at home. The Bears are the better team, and should win this game. But, when you look back at the Packers game, we were also clearly the better team. We still lost. Divisional games are not only critical, they are almost always a lot more difficult for the better team to win than a non-divisional game. With that, here's my things to watch : 1) Bears Run D vs the Lions Running game - One of the glossed over stories from last weeks Bills game was how we completely obliterated Shady McCoy. He was on my list of "Things to Watch". He got 10 yards on 10 carries. Why this was important was because it obviously forced the Bills to throw. And we all know when Peterman throws, he throws to the other team.... This goes back to something the Bears used to do on a regular basis. When you stop one aspect of a teams offense, they become one dimensional. When a team is one dimensional, it makes it very easy for a defense to sniff out formations, and attack. Kerryon Johnson is looking like a decent RB. He has 500 yards on the season sharing reps with Leggarette Blount and is averaging almost 6 yards per carry. He has obviously broken a few to get that average up, but he is a legit weapon. We need to shut him down, make them one dimensional, make Stafford drop back to throw, and attack him. We do this,and we should see very similar results to what the Vikings did last week. Edge: Bears D 2) Eddie Jackson vs Matt Stafford - Not only are the Bears #2 in the NFL in ints, they are #1 in points off Int's. They, in fact, have 3 Pick 6's... Now, assuming the above holds and we can make the Lions O one dimensional, this should lead to plenty of ops for Jackson. Fangio is playing a lot of 2-gap, 3-4 man, with a single high. He is basically asking Jackson to turn into a ball hawk. Jackson has had his ups and downs. But he's getting better. He had his 2 picks in games where Mack was obliterating QB's. If the Bears front 4 pins their ears back and goes after Stafford, Eddie Jackson could have a great game. Edge: Stafford 3) Good Trubs -vs- Bad Trubs - Look, the Bills have a damn good defense. I think I said this previously. Leslie Frazier has the Bills defense playing at a really high level. He is a great D coach. They have playmakers on the line, in the middle, and in the backfield. So, I am cutting Trubs some slack for last week. But, my biggest issue with him is his innacurate middle deep passing. He is still sailing passes. I honestly can't figure out if this issue is mechanics, mental, or just a complete lack of touch. But it is an issue, and I think we can all agree that when whatever it is happens, he looks a lot like Rex Grossman. We don't need a perfect game from Trubs this week. We are the better team. But we do need a "damn near perfect" game... Edge: Even 4) Bears Offensive Line -vs- Yellow Flags - Wow... I realize the refs last week were complete crap. But 4 false start penalties? WTF was that? Those weren't bad ref calls. Those were Oline mistakes. And it's not like the crowd was into the game. We shut them up very early last week. These flags set our offense back, forced us into a shit ton of 3rd and longs, and was one of the keys to the Bills completely dominating the TOP. I hope Nagy focused on this over the week and we clean it up. When out O goes 3 and out due to penalties, and gives the ball back to the other team, it hurts our D. This week, we can't let O penalties help put the ball back in Staffords hands. Edge: Nagy better get his shit together. 5) Charles Leno vs Ezekiel Ansah - Ansah has been injured since week 1 with a bad shoulder - and has only played in 2 games this year (week 1 and last week). Interestingly, he has had a sack in both of those games. And he's practiced all week. He's definitely going to play. Leno is not having a great year. He has allowed 4 sacks through 8 games - which would make this his worst season as a pro assuming he stays on this pace. Ansah has a bad shoulder, Leno is fully healthy. Leno has to win this match up. Unfortunately, given he looked below average last week against a back-up, I am definitely worried. Edge: Lions 6) Tarik Cohen vs. Jarrad Davis - The Lions this year have propensity to allow the big play. Harrison (DT) Is really good at stuffing the run or eating up Olinemen and letting the LB's do their job. But Tarik is a special RB. Last week, the Bears ran Cohen in the A or B gap 6 times. He gained only 5 yards. But this is not the Bills Dline... He has the ability to get past Harrison and that leaves him one juke away from making Jarrad Davis his bitch. Davis is kinda like a poor mans Khaseem Green... Edge: Cohen 7) Khalil Mack vs Rick Wagner - Heeeee's baaaaack.... I really hope Mack sitting the last few weeks was enough to fully heal Mack's foot injury. The Bears defense has taken a massive hit in pass rush since he's gone down. And while him sitting out should have been the perfect opportunity for Floyd to step up and lead. He flopped. Mack has only played the Lions once in his career. He had a decent game, but never got to Stafford. I think he changes that this week. Rick Wagner is a decent tackle. He has given up only 3 sacks this year. I do think Fangio will move Mack around a lot, but I look forward to him beating Wagner often. Edge: Mack 8) Kenny Galloday vs Kyle Fuller - I suspect Fuller will be facing Galloday more often than Prince this week. But they will definitely swich off a lot. Galloday looked like the real deal in weeks 1 and 2. He's 6'-4", has speed, has hands, and looks the part. But he's no Calvin Johnson. After putting up 114 yards week 1, he has put up 6 catches for 90 ish yards - in the last 3 games. Kyle Fuller has had some great games and great plays this year. The INT last week that he played the receiver, defended the pass, and then continued playing the ball and picked up with his fingertips just before the all hit the turf was awesome. I feel that when he "just fucking plays", he's a stud. When he get's in his own head, he makes mistakes. But, this week, even though he is going to be physically out matched, he will win this match up. Edge: Fuller 9) Ref Factor - We get Alex Kemp this week. Another rookie head ref.... His crew calls a lot of penalties. Home teams lose a lot more than away teams going back to when he was a line judge. Seems to be fairly balanced in overall calls but there really isn't a lot to work with. I was worried last week about refs, I'm worried again. Not because of bias, but because of incompetence. I've got Bears 29, Lions 17. Go Bears!
It's not mechanics. There have been plenty of throws where his footwork is great, balance perfect, motion fluid, and yet he still airmails wide open WRs downfield. It's either mental or a lack of touch. If it's a lack of touch, he's not going to cut it in this league ever. If it's mental, maybe he needs to see a sports psychologist. Or maybe he's a mental midget like Rex. Either way if we don't see improvement soon I'm going to start really worrying.
I have seen some mechanical issues with him....typically it's his hips and not his feet. I do think a lack of touch has really played a role though.
I haven't been wanting to pull the Rex Grossman card, but... I think those comparisons are tamped down due to the very different systems each played in. However, strictly looking at the QB, it's not at all hard to see the parallels... Like Rex, I'm still holding out hope. He hit on one or two passes last week that he definitely didn't early in the season. So, maybe he'll get there. Edit: Rex hit the long ball well at times - his problem was inconsistency. I don't know if I've quite seen the "Mad Bomber" ability from Trubisky, yet.
This is a very important game. As close to a must win as they come. If the Bears are going to be taken seriously as a playoff contender they HAVE to start winning in the division especially at home. I’m not getting the Rex comparisons. Rex was erratic to put it kindly. Trubisky’s mood swings have been far less severe and he is being asked to do a hell of a lot more than Rex was ever asked to do within the offense.
Excellent write up. Golladay has been up and down, but I'm not forgetting Marvin Jones. He and Golladay make up a pretty solid duo, and quite frankly--the Lions entire offensive receiving threat. Since trading Golden Tate, after these guys its Theo Riddick out of the backfield with 175 receiving yards on the year. Production from their TE, Luke Wilson is non-esixtent. He has 76 yards on the year and he's questionable, which means Levine Toilolo may start. Not a receiver either, but he is pivotal to their run blocking schemes in jumbo packages. TJ Jones, the 3rd WR is nonexistent statistically. 49 receiving yards on the year? Mongo brings up making a team one dimensional, but stopping the run. That's going to have to happen. And with 10 sacks against their OLine next week? I expect a heavy dose, which means Goldman needs to constantly getting pressure so Trevathan/Roquan can make plays/have wide open lanes to stop Blount and Kerryon is the key. He stuffing Ragnow, Glasgow, and TJ Lang or a combo of 2/3 of their interior OL is going to be paramount, because looking at their splits for the year, Detroit heavily favors running between the guards (57 of 180 total rushes on the year), followed buy runs between LG/LT (48 of 180). They rarely go outside the tackles, and have far more success running off the LT than the RT. I want to see them step on Detroit's throat, but this can easily be a trap game. Mitch is going to not need to sail the football, and Mack returning helps. Floyd/Lynch need to show up. Also, I'm curious to see what's going on with Bears WRs. Kevin White was a healthy scratch last week, bears WR coach Mike Furrey said "its about the rotation and he will get his chances" in Monday when he and LBs coach talked with Media with Nagy. We're 1/2 way through 2018's regular season schedule. Kid's running out of time, and I'm seeing Josh Bellamy way too much.
One thing i think Rex and Trubsiky do have in common is there were times Rex would just let it go deep regardless and there have been times when it looked like Trubisky has done that too. Pre-empting that decision making process and throwing it whether a guy is open or not is a very bad habit to get into. It seemed something he was doing earlier in the season more and not so much latterly so maybe he's getting better re that. But psychologically Rex was a weakling. If he started well and was feeling it then maybe he'd have a good game, but if he started badly you'd just shudder cos you knew he wouldn't be able to shake it off and often it would turn into a total train wreck. Trubisky has had his struggles, but i think mentally he's far more resilient than Rex. We've already seen him turn things around after a poor start/half, such as the Jets game just two weeks ago. As for this game, pat has just pipped me and touched on something i was gonna say but: Theo Riddick v Smith/Trevathan Riddick has been banged up this season and missed some games/not been 100% when he's played, but seems to be back now and is effective as a pass catcher out the backfield. It wouldn't surprise me to see him catch quite a few balls sunday. With so little after Jones & Golladay, Stafford may look to Riddick quickly in his progressions and often. The Loins may also use some designed passes to him that the Bears may not have much film on. Either way the LB's coming out to cover Riddick will need to be sharp. Given space he can juke you, and he runs hard too. At one point it looked like Riddick's star was waning, but with Abdullah gone and no other pass catching RB's on the roster, Riddick may bounce back in the second half the season. Edge - Smith/Trevathan I haven't used the term yet this season, but to me this is the Bears first truly must win game. The Bears are in first place and the playoffs are a realistic possibility, but its gonna be close. They have to start winning divisional games and they absolutely have to beat the Loins at home. Gotta have this one. Thats a good shout actually. But varder, the "might" has to stay regardless. We're not there yet with Pace : )))
Fangio said yesterday that Mack is not yet where we need him to be. If that's the case I'd consider sitting him out again. We know he's not effective on this ankle and I don't want him to reaggravate.
I really hope that was just him bluffing. Cos if Mack's still not healthy after 3 weeks of rest then its a damning indictment of their decision to play him against NE, when they knew he wasn't right.
This has been mentioned before but he was answering a question on his comfort level in the system and not his physical health. Here is the full quote. [Fangio was asked Thursday about Mack’s knowledge of his scheme and comfort in it. “He’s not where he needs to be or where we want him to be but he certainly is prepared enough to play if his ankle will let him,” Fangio said. When Mack does have more command of the defense, we’ll see it in Mack’s confidence. “Just more confidence in what to do and how to do it for us and hopefully a little faster reactions, mostly I’m talking about when he has to drop some,” Fangio said.] With Mack a full participant in Wednesday and Thursday practice he will most likely not be on the injury report. Will he be 100%? Who knows but it seems it’s as good as it’s going to get. I don’t think more rest is the answer at this point or they would continue to limit him in practice.
The key words being "if his ankle will let him." If he's not on the injury report I'll definitely feel fine about him playing, then it's just a matter of him getting back up to game speed.
Can you just fucking stop being the Bieber in fantasy? I'm tired of looking at that asshat every week, heh. And I say that after I had to sport that GQ Cutler fucking pic for an offseason. Re: Pace, the might's going nowhere. I'll officially give him credit for Mack, but Trubs/Smith/Shaheen/Floyd/White - Too many ups and downs there.
The injury report came out. This is feeling like a game the bears should win by 2+ scores. TJ Lang is out with a neck injury. Feeling much better about my primary focus this game about Goldman eating the Lions interior OLine to stop the run. Darius Slay is out with a knee injury. LeGarrette Blount is questionable with a knee injury and was limited in practice yesterday. Kerryon Johnson also questionable with an ankle injury. Also limited in practice yesterday. Dion Sims still in concussion protocol. Better be extra safe with this one, Nagy. Try--giving him 8 weeks off. And that's me being very, VERY liberal.
