Morning after thoughts *WEEK 7 EDITION*

I agree across the board.

I don't believe in platooning offensive linemen and I don't really get the snap sharing there.

Some interesting stats...or stats that will make you want to start drinking right now....

On the 9 plays where the Bears used a 6th offensive lineman...they ran the ball for a 2.4 yard average.

Trubisky was 1-10 on throws that were in the air for 20 yards or more. That one completion was obviously the hail mary to end the game. Both INT's are included in those 9 incompletions.

The Bears defense has allowed 7 pass plays of 40+ yards. Tied with 4 other teams for most in the league. Last season...they allowed 8 of those in 16 games.

 

And I'm pretty sure we're still 0 for the season on converting 3rd and 10 or longer.

 

I didn't get a chance to see the game , was there any snaps under center this week ?

 

I have a lot of thoughts on this game, and I'm not necessarily disagreeing with anyone here - the entire team clearly has to step up. The coaching is... bad. I mean, from decisions like the non-FG try at the end of the half to playcalling to personnel... it's bad.

But, for all the criticism of the defense, they gave up 24 points. Is it too many? Sure. But special teams gave up 14, between the punt block and the kick return. So let's point that finger properly, there.

Meanwhile, for anyone saying that Trubisky should catch a break, or that he's shown improvement...

In the first half, I think he was 5/12, with the last two completions coming on a screen and a gimme prevent defense completion (maybe it was 6/13, or something along those lines). He missed open man after open man. And yes, I do consider a receiver who is clearly at least a step in front of his man without a bracketing coverage at the NFL level an open receiver. Good QB's agree with me. Trubisky missed these guys consistently. BWW gave the stats for his passes beyond 20 yards, and I think that's being generous - I would wager numbers for his passes beyond the LOS, or 5 yards don't look very good either.

I'm not saying that he needs to be run out of town, right now. But we have to acknowledge that, right now, he's not a serviceable NFL QB. Without the defense playing at historic levels in the first few weeks, we don't win any games. If you had to make a list of starting NFL QB's in the league right now, does he make it out of your bottom 10?

Howard needs to run the ball from an offense that's committed to the run. He doesn't need time to get going, he doesn't need an offensive line that gets more push (both things would be nice), he needs an offense that wants to run the football. Running out of the shotgun 10-15 times a game, half of which the defense knows exactly what you're doing, and you're giving them 3-5 yards head start... not a great recipe for a power back. Get under center, and show different run looks throughout the game. If Nagy were any cuter he'd have to go to an all-girls Catholic school. Simplify things, and it'll do wonders for both Trubisky and Howard, two players you need to succeed.

I think this offense is really close to being successful enough. I think this defense has the personnel to be really, really good. I don't think either are there, right now. We'll see if that changes. If both meet that criteria, this team is a threat to win playoff games. If not... we'll get 'em next year.

 

We shouldn't have to ask this question...
And I don't remember seeing any. I'm sure there was at least one - a QB sneak, or something? But you wouldn't need your whole hand to count the snaps.

 

This is where I'm at. In spite of a really bad performance by Trubisky the offense continues to put up some points, and the defense continues to look uninspired and rolling backwards. Hell one of his better throws hit Sims in the numbers and falls to the ground. Sims fucking hands are like tits on a bull. I'm not going to get too high or too low with this team because I really believe they are really close to being a playoff contender, but not convinced that they actually are.

I'm curious to the conditions on the field how windy was it down there on the field? I'm not looking to make excuses, but I'm trying to justify that some of those piss poor God awful throws could of been affected by the elements, and perhaps had a part in persuading them from kicking that field goal.

 

I’m mostly disappointed in the effort from our defense. That’s 2 weeks in row where they just didn’t appear ready to play football. You know what the patriots are going to do, but we seemed all too happy to let them dink and dunk. We were playing a bend don’t break type of defense against the fucking patriots.

Our safeties has been really bad the past 2 weeks.

I don’t want to trade Howard because I doubt we’d get more than a 4th for him. If a 2nd was on the table I’d ship him out in a heartbeat but I doubt it very much.

 

We don't have to acknowledge that because that isn't true.

Matt Barkley wasn't a serviceable NFL QB. Neither was Mose Moreno, Steve Stenstrom, Jimmy Clausen, Jason Campbell, Caleb Hanie, Todd Collins, Chad Hutchinson, Johnathan Quinn, Kordell Steward, Henry Burris, Rick Mirer, or Peter Tom Willis.

Those guys...weren't serviceable.

Trubisky has made some mistakes. He also threw 2 touchdowns in the last game and ran one in. He's on pace for 4200 yards and 35 touchdowns.....those are numbers that are much more than serviceable.

If you had to make a list of starting NFL QB's in the league right now, does he make it out of your bottom 10?

I'd take him over Tannehill or Osweiler. I'd definitely take him over Eli Manning right now. And Bortles. As well as Josh Rosen, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, Case Keenum, Sam Darnold, CJ Beathard, Josh Allen, and Jameis Winston.

So yeah....he makes it out of my bottom 10.

 

I don't have a lot of time at work, at the moment, so I'll be brief before I get back to this later:

The "on pace" argument doesn't hold water. It's a bad argument to use in almost any sports context (I mean, just disgustingly awful), but in this case, the Tampa game entirely skews those numbers. And yes, considering how out of place that game was in relation to the rest of Trubisky's career, it is the outlier, and shouldn't be used as part of a statistic that assumes that same performance is repeated at least twice more this season.

The history of the NFL is littered with guys who had enough not-terrible performances that fans were convinced they still had "franchise potential". Again, I'm not saying that Trubisky is a bust by any means, but we have to acknowledge what he is at the moment. If you put on the tape of last year's Jags-Bills playoff game, where Blake Bortles almost single-handedly kept the team from beating an inferior Buffalo squad... well, it looks almost identical to at least Trubisky's first half. And I'll give him that he makes some good throws, but - everyone on the list you gave, at some point, did. Until Trubisky can make those good throws regularly, I don't consider him "serviceable". Why? Because he doesn't facilitate this team winning against even potentially playoff competition.

That post was longer than I planned on, but not as complete as I had ultimately envisioned. So, 50/50.

 

Yeah the Tampa game skews the numbers....so does his worst statistical game. On pace is determined by his average performance....all games total divided by total number of games played....players tend to perform right around what their average is more often than not. So the on pace argument isn't awful. Does it mean he will definitely hit those numbers? No. But it tells you what he's done so far and what he can do moving forward. To hit his on pace number of touchdowns he really only needs to throw around 2 a game and have a few games where he throws 3 or 4.....based on the first 6 games do you really think that isn't doable? To his his yards on pace...he needs to throw around 260 to 270 per game....based on his first six games....do you see that as impossible?

That's the second time you said "we" have to acknowledge. We don't have to acknowledge anything. You're allowed to believe whatever you wanna believe but please don't tell me what I need to think or believe.

What he is at the moment is a very physically talented young QB that doesn't have a ton of games under his belt at the college or NFL level. In his first year in a new offense. And he's performed...well. Not great...not world beating. But he's done well. He's made a lot of mistakes....but he's made a lot of really good plays too.

There are handful of QBs in the league that make good throws on almost every dropback. A very small handful. If you expect Trubisky to be that guy RIGHT NOW....then that's why you're so disappointed because your expectations outweigh reality.

Sorry to tell you...but even with all the errant throws Sunday....Mitch did enough to win a football game. He threw two touchdowns and ran in another one. He was personally responsible for 18 points. 21 when you count the extra points. The Bears gave up two TD's on special teams and lost by 1 touchdown. There is ZERO doubt he has to be better moving forward if this team wants to someday be a contender. But to just take a massive shit on the guy the way you're doing right now is wrong.

I love you dline and you should know that by now. But this post is shit.

 

Not much to add here but when it comes to Howard I think it’s a mix of his effort and blocking.

IMO the Bears messed up the Oline right from the beginning. They should have started Daniels at center and Whitehair at guard. The entire offense started from scratch this offseason. I am not buying the “Whitehair is used to making the checks and calls”. There was plenty of time for Daniels to learn. Kush is a fun guy and all but he has been the weak link on the interior line. He is a career backup for a reason. The splitting reps in games is just weird. Make the move already.

Howard is looking more and more like a square peg in a round hole in this offense. I don’t think the runs out of shotgun are the issue. If it isn’t blocked perfectly he isn’t getting the yards. He has shown no cutback ability. If I am not mistaken the Bears changed to an inside zone running scheme from an outside zone running scheme and it hasn’t worked in Howard’s favor. That being said he isn’t going to bring a good draft pick via trade so maybe Nagy can adjust a little for the better of the team. But those changes shouldn’t be drastic.

The defense is a puzzlemeant. I have faith that Fangio can turn it around but it seems he’s gotten lost as a play caller when Mack isn’t effective. He just hasn’t shown any in game adjustments. He used both Floyd and Mack a to. In coverage to try and negate the short passing game that burned him against the Dolphins and it didn’t work. He needs to get more creative with pressure when the front four can’t get it done.

 

I agree we shouldn't have to wonder if or how many , probably can't count the entire season on both hands .

 

1. I will own up and say I was wrong. Despite the score the patriots had our number the whole way, and the effort, especially from the defense was really lacking.

2. Not saying it’s happening here but the negativity on Trubs is ridiculous. BWW nails it, Trubs has played poorly but he IS making progress. I don’t think he’s a world beater and his accuracy on deep throws at times is horrific. But he’s also made some decent throws. I’m not throwing in the towel yet (plus we are stuck with him for the forseeable future)

3. Why are people not more pissed at the defense? I get they couldn’t keep up the record breaking pace but they’ve gone from looking elite to complete garbage. I get it’s the patriots, but they looked the same against miami.

4. I said after the dolphins and patriots we’d know better what we have with this team. And it’s one on the bubble of the playoffs with a positive trajectory. I am seriously worried about coaching more than anything. Blang said it best, until we start winning games in the NFC North we are on the outside looking in.

 

As badly as this team has played and been coached in all phases, the talent is here to succeed and I still think this team is closer to being that team than not.
I forgot who said but I agree that bye came at the wrong possible time, but the remaining schedule seems to be favorable and three out the next five will be division games hopefully the Bears can pick up some momentum going into those 3 division games in a row, so I'm not going to panic just yet. Aside from the division games the Rams seem to be our biggest worry.

 

I have no doubt.

 

First and foremost, I hope you know that the love absolutely goes both ways, too, and there are never hurt feelings around here. Nothing but respect, as always. Shit, substantive conversation is worth it's weight in gold. And you might even be right.

This is what gets me. I'm not expecting him to make good throws every time - I'm fine with a stupid decision, or a risk taken, etc. What gets me is that he's missing wide open guys. I'm not expecting him to be a top 5 QB, but I'm expecting him to look a lot less like Blake Bortles. It's him missing open receivers that gets to me, because I think that should be the base expectation from a QB at this level. Hell, if anything, we've seen his decision-making get better, he's not as flustered as week one... but he's not more accurate or more consistent. And that's what hurts.

He has gotten better as the season has gone on, which is encouraging, but he's also still missing easy throws.

I haven't meant to take a massive shit on the guy, but I have been meaning to be realistic - he's been failing at the most base requirements of an NFL QB. Granted, it's among other successes, but it's worth pointing out what's what. I think we're seeing the same things, I'm just going about it more pessimistically (and optimism among the fan base is always appreciated).

However, I think you bring up an interesting point that I just haven't had the time to investigate. You say that he did enough to win the football game - I wonder what amount of games have finished with a team scoring less than 21 points this year. In other words, if we didn't hemorrhage points, would Trubisky's performance have been enough to win in more games than not, this year?

I think this is ultimately where we both are. I don't think he's at the point where, even with a great defense, we're a real contender right now. If he can hit a few more open guys, or throw a better deep ball... I think that changes.

Also, apologies for the late and ultimately less substantive response. Work has been crazy. I'm still reading when I get the chance, just haven't had much opportunity to participate.

 

I think you know football Rob, so this statement puzzles me. You’d feel more comfortable with a rookie making the calls at center, AND him snapping to a QB he’s never worked with in game situations over a center he’s been in games with?

 

Daniels was a center in college. I am going to assume he is a good snapper of the football. Whitehair has proven to be inconsistent at best when it comes to simply getting the ball to the QB. So as far as snapping goes I think Daniels would be an upgrade. And if Daniels had all the first team snaps that Whitehair had this past off season I feel confident Trubs would be comfortable with snaps from Daniels.

As for the line calls Daniels is the backup center. So I think he needs to know what he is doing in case of injury to Whitehair. Does Whitehair have the advantage do to experience? Sure but a full off season with the first team offense should be enough time for Daniels to get it done. And if he struggles he has Whitehair right next to him to assist.

Whitehair had a really good rookie season at C but has regressed a bit since then. IMO I think he is a prow bowl guard if given the opportunity to master his craft at that position. I think Daniels could very well be the better C so if they had played that way right out to the gate the O line would be a stronger unit.

 

This made me curious, because I think Trubisky has in general done enough to win recently, so I figured I'd go count this up:
Week 8 - 2 Teams Won with less than 21 points, 8 games with the losing team less than 21 points
Week 7 - 3 Teams won, 10 losers with less than 21
Week 6 - 1 Team won, 9 losers with less than 21
Week 5 - 3 Teams won, 10 losers with less than 21
Week 4 - 1 Team won, 7 losers with less than 21
Week 3 - 3 Teams won, 9 losers with less than 21
Week 2 - 4 Teams won, 10 losers with less than 21
Week 1 - 3 Teams won, 10 losers with less than 21

So on any given week, 2/3rds of the teams score less than 21. But it's pretty rare to win with less than 21 (though there's a bunch in the 21-24 range).

I agree with you that he's missing a lot of throws, but I don't think it's unfixable or super concerning right now, he has been making some solid progress. Like you and BWW and probably everyone on the site, he has to do better to be a real contender. But it's also his first year in a new system, and he didn't even play a full year last year.

 

You make it sound like this nigh impossible feat that never happens. It happens virtually every season. Billy Price was a week 1 starter for the Bungals this year. And that Vikings C, Elfein is it(?), pretty sure he was a week 1 starter for them last season and he was like a mid round pick.

You don't draft a Center with a top40 pick and then say he can't play C for a year cos he's a rookie.

IMO the Bears got things ass-backwards with this. If Whitehair had been great at C then there would've been justification. But he's been average at best. With Nagy coming on board it was the perfect time to realign the OL and get two high draft picks playing in their best positions.

I still don't know why the Bears didn't do that. Its not like they let them battle it out in camp or anything. They announced real early that Daniels was gonna play G this season. Its just weird.