Things to Watch: Bears -vs- Seahawks

5 days have now passed since the Sunday Night debacle. And I'm still as pissed off about the game as I was Sunday night. As I said before, it's really hard to pin point one person or group to blame. Sadly, the historic disaster was the result of everyone from the HC down to the players sucking. It would be a lot quicker to tell you who didn't suck than who did. I got Mack, Goldman, hicks and our kickers...

Interestingly (to me) I do not believe we were out-talented in that game. I do think we were much less prepared and definitely not in shape to play a full game. Let's hope that changes this week.

Things to watch:

1) Khalil Mack -vs- Germain Ifedi -

This just isn't fair. IFedi is a middle tier RT on a good day. Unfortunately for him, Monday will not be one of those "good days". Ifedi twisted his ankle last week, but stayed in the game. He then gave up 2 sacks. I expect Mack will spend more time in the Seahawks backfield than their RB's... Now, keeping in mind that their RG (DJ Fluker) is injured and has not practicved this week, the whole right side of their line is vulnerable. I expect Mack to have at least 2 sacks this week. And if he plays like he did the first half of last week for an entire game, he may have 3 or 4.

Advantage: Mack


2) Russel Wilson vs Roquan Smith -

I generally view Russel Wilson as one of the most mobile QB's in the NFL. But even with that above average speed and elusiveness, he was still sacked 6 times last week by the Broncos. He was pretty much running for his life from the opening snap on. I think our Dline is going to have a field day against a very middle of the road (and beat up) offensive line. So, expect a lot of what you saw last week. You counter that by having your interior LB's shadow the QB.

With that, Nick Kwiakowski looked like a slow old fat white guy last week.There is no way the Bears are going to trust him to be Wilson's shadow. So, I do expect to see a lot more of Smith this week.

This is going to be a great test for Smith. Let's see if he can make up for pissing us off this offseason.

Advantage: Wilson


3) Brandon Marshall -vs- Prince -

Doug Baldwin tore his MCL half early in the game last week and will not be able to go this week. In his place, Marshall was elevated to the #2 receiver position. He caught 3 passes for 46 yards and a TD. Marshall has lost a step but is still a very crafty, physical and strong receiver. He also has the height advantage. I think he'll come in with a chip on his shoulder and look to take it to us.

Objectively, I'd rate Prince's play last week somewhere between bad and piss-poor. If he plays like he did last week, Marshall is going to eat him alive.

Advantage: Marshall


4) Trubiusky -vs- Trubiskys Brain -

I've heard many commentators, as they review his game play, compare his first half to the second half. The truth is he was pretyy crappy after the first 2 drives. And even the second drive, which ended in a FG, was not his best work. He had 2 chances to throw a TD pass to end that drive, and missed both.

But watching the game, I think a lot of his issues have to do with his inexperience and his lack of trust in his own talents. But, a lot also has to do with him just missing open receivers. We all have seen the play where he misses Burton wide open at the back of the end zone. But there were may more.

On this play 3rd and 9, the Packers bring a double CB blitz.



Trubisky does a great job of eluding the blitz. Matthews misses his assignment (Howard) and focuses on Trubisky.



Trubisky seems to eye Howard all the way... But refuses to throw to him. He then, for some reason turns his head to the other side of the field. With Matthews running to the QB, and the DB playing the receiver running to the corner, Howard almost certainly would have picked up the first.



Instead he throws across the field and out of the back of the endzone. As a side note, the receiver on that side stepped out of bounds and was ineligible to catch the ball anyway.



Advantage: Trubisky's brain


5) Our offense -vs- the Legion of Boom -

Well, let's say our offense -vs- whats left of the LOB. I'm pretty sure Earl Thomas is about all that left of that D. No more Sherman. No more Kam Chancellor. No more Bennet...No, this is not a scary defense anymore. Case Keenum threw all over them. 330 yards + 3TD's.

Before last weeks game, I noted that the Bears could be a much better team than we expected IF Trubisky takes that next step. He clearly did not against the Packers. But if he is on the verge, this defense is a good one to do it against.

Advantage: Even


6) Trey Burton -vs- Seahawks D -

Burton was targeted 6 times last week. Sadly, only 1 of those throws was catchable. He'll likely draw the SS (Bradley McDougald) on many of his routes. McDougald is playing in Chancelors spot as Chancelor is still on the PUP list with a neck injury. McDougald has a banged up knee and there is no way he'll be able to keep up with Burton.

Look for a big week from Burton.... if his QB can throw him the ball.

Advantage: Burton


7) Allen Robinson -vs- Trey Flowers -
Flowers has a pulled hamstring and has yet to practice this week. If he goes Monday, Robinson should have a relatively easy time getting separation. If Flowers can't go, his back-up is Neiko Thorpe. Thorpe has an injured wrist. But even without the injury, he's definitely no Richard Sherman.

I expect a really big game from Robinson this week.... If his QB can throw him the ball.

Advantage: Robinson


8) Ref factor -

This week we get Walt Coleman and his crew. Coleman is most infamous for handing the game to the Patriots over the Raiders in the "tuck rule" game.

Since 1999, Coleman has ref'd the Bears 13 times. We've lost 9 of those 13 games including a 31-3 smashing by the Eagles last year. However, though we seem to lose a lot when he's calling the games, the penalties seem to be relatively balanced.

 

First I want to say thanks for doing this again, I really missed these "Mongo's Things To Watch"

I know the 3rd preseason game thing has been beat to death, but that was one of the games when the execution of a single play decided the outcome, and possibly could of helped, but most certainly wouldn't of hurt. Let's hope like you said they come prepared to play and have an answer to a no huddle.

I agree, while this is his second year in the NFL and people make comments about how rookie QB's have done so well, I can't help to think those rookies have more actual experience than Trubisky maybe not at this level but overall. I can cut the kid some slack, because as lost as he seemed out there at times he didn't force it, and I can respect that. When I saw the kid last season at camp zinging the barrels, and Allneck and Buttfumble weren't, I thought as raw as this kid may be he could also be special. I do worry about him though, because the game is so much more than that but he seems to have the one thing you can't teach.

Let's hope so, I was banking on him with my fantasy team this season and last week and he let me down, I just pray he doesn't look Sims way too often or fuck it! at all.
Sounds like they have a lot of one legged guys I hope they can find an answer to, unlike the one legged guy we saw last week.

 

Really good write-up Mongo, thanks!

 

I disagree. I think the Seahawks' receiver situation is an enormous advantage for the bears.

This isn't Brandon Marshall of 2012. Brandon Marshall, while still an impeccable athlete, is slow, and I think for the secondary as a whole, they have an advantage with his speed and declining game. His size and knowledge of the position is going to get him catches, but with the pressure we expect from Mack and Hicks, and hopefully NEVER Aaron Lynch, Wilson shouldn't have all day. With Baldwin going down, Lockett, Jaron Brown, and Marshall aren't the kind of guys you target 10+ times a game, but Russell Wilson is going to have to. Marshall knows the position enough to still make a play, but I'll be floored if he's catching 10 passes for 100+ yards.

I think the safety gameplan has to be on point from Fangio. If it is, where they aren't getting pantsed like Amos on the Randall Cobb play who just stopped running, continuing a garbage angle that let Cobb cruise to the losing TD--then the bears have a chance to jump a lot of passes or smother Lockett, their speed threat WR.

I think their TE Vannett is a guy you can't take lightly and probably a low-key advantage for Carroll/Wilson. Primarily a blocking TE, he's elusive when he gets involved with the pass game. Roquan Smith hasn't been named the starter this week, and the only thing I've seen/read is that Nagy/Fangio have said this week they are working to 'expand his impact,' which I believe means Kwiatkowski is still probably going to play a lot of snaps, and that's concerning to me, because his lack of speed shown last week is a major liability. Vannett is a 6'6 receiving threat who was a talented 2 way TE at Ohio State a couple years ago.

It all starts with stuffing the run. Their rookie, Penny is a shifty little fucker, but not big enough and playing kind of banged up at the moment. Chris Carson averaged over 7 YPC on 7 carries (51 yards), with most of his major damage coming on 1st downs rushing and receiving. Stuffing Carson means Marshall, Lockett, and Brown all have to beat you, and of the 3, passing defense should be about NOT letting that little fucker, Lockett behind the safeties.

I'm curious to see who Fangio puts on Wilson as a spy.

 

Hopefully the Bears can be competitive enough that it makes it worth it for you to do these all year long, such a highlight.

Wilson is very likely going to be running for his life. I can't imagine they won't plan to run away from Mack's side. However, unlike the Packers, the front 7 are going to get a test at RB. That might slow things down a bit? The Seahawks also have Brian Shottenheimer instead of the Perennially shitty Bevel. Here more than talent, I am curious to see the coaching adjustments throughout the game.

I agree with you here. I get what you're saying pat, but never underestimate the "maligned former Bears player coming back to Chicago" factor. I'll never forget when that lazy ass Cedric Benson came back and dropped 200 yard game on us and sucked the entire rest of his career.

On paper I agree with pat, but I've got this feeling Marshall is going to have a good game.

The Legion of Whom is not that much of a threat as it used to be. If there were ever a chance for Trubisky to rebound, this is it.

You know who I don't want to see targetted? Deon fucking Sims. Old Stone Hands can stick to blocking.

 

I'm really worried about Russel Wilson Legs. Earlier this week I was prepared to shout at my TV if I saw Leonard Flloyd being the primary QB Spy again against the Seahawks.

The more I think about it though - if the Bears are unwilling to give Roquan a starters load yet, we cannot under any circumstance Allow Kwit to be the primary QB Spy. The Seahawks O-Line is bad enough that we juuuust might be able to get away with letting Leonard Flloyd spy a lot on monday.

 

I'm basing my opinion on this match-up. Not their whole receiving crew against all our DB's.

I think PA played like crap last week and has a lot of physical disadvantages against Marshall.

I get your point about our pressure on Wilson being a factor. But let's be honest, if you watch that Broncos games last week, Wilson was under pressure seemingly on every pass. He still completed 300 yards. He's going to let it rip no matter what and Marshall is a big target.

So, I do think Marshall has the edge on PA. But hope I'm wrong.

 

I had Kellen Davis flash-backs last week.

 

Monday night will be his 14th start. So, we're getting pretty close to the point where we stop blaming his issues on inexperience.

 

This was the first thing i was gonna reply to SM.

It won't surprise anyone that i don't like Prince against most receivers. That said, I don't like this matchup at all.


Marshall should have no trouble physically overpowering Prince. You can forget about any pressure on release. So that means Prince will play off. That means Marshall just has to run a good route, own the spot, and he will make the catch. If PA was a route jumper it might be different, but PA isn't a route jumper. PA doesn't catch footballs. PA does not have an INT in his last 41games!!!


Fuller is no Aqib Talib, but he is very obvs a more physical player than Prince and can stand up to Marshall's physicality better. He gives Fangio the option of mixing up what he calls more cos he can press at the line now and then. He can also jam Marshall often enough that he at least has to think about something other than making sure he's past the marker when he makes the catch. Fuller matches up to Marshall much better than Prince.


Now, we're gonna see a lot of Tyler Lockett on monday night and he is one speedy bastard. Fuller also has more top end speed than PA so i could see why they would put him on Lockett. You would need to alter coverage to give Prince plenty of Safety help up top.


Its a close call, but if it were me i'd give serious consideration to switching the CB's around for this game, because to pat's point, i could easily see Marshall making 8-10 chain mover catches for 80-100yards. He'll be a problem inside the 10 as well.

Key matchup. Shame i have no faith that #58 can be relied upon yet.


Noquan did enough when he was on the field last week to make a noticeable impact. Its no stretch at all to think with enough snaps he could've had a tangible effect on both the overall D performance that 2nd half, and the final result. Problem is he wasn't on the field. 8 snaps. Noquan played EIGHT f_cking snaps. In a game that tight against our biggest rival that is not something im gonna forget for a long time.


Looking ahead, this game is exactly the kind of reason the Bears drafted Noqaun 8th overall. This little bastard needs to up his playing time dramatically monday night. He won't get up to Trevathon's 97% against the Pack, but Kwit was out there for 80% of defensive snaps in that game, thats what Noquan needs to be around now. He's gotta play 75% of snaps minimum. If its 50% or lower, danger Will Robinson.


Keeping Wilson on a leash is a key to winning this game. We know Kwit physically can't get that job done. If Wilson kills us with broken plays cos Kwit is on the field cos Noquan could only hit 50% cos he still wasn't ready yet cos(thats a lot of cos's) of his pathetic holdout...... my hatred of him is gonna grow even more.


Final Thought: F this late night Bears game bullshit! Two weeks running to start the season? And then no football week 5 with the bye? You asshole schedule setting sons of bitches.

 

I guess I just don't see this particular match up being that much a deciding factor on who wins the game. Not to minimize the individual match up, but you were correct, Wilson was under pressure seemingly every pass, he was sacked six times. His Center gave up six pressures alone. Their interior OLine of Fluker, Pocic, and Britt each did their best Vlad Ducasse impressions last week, and that was against 33 year old journyman Domata Peko at NT; and now they get tasked with Goldman.

Of all those 298 yards, Marshall only found 46 of them on 6 targets. I don't think Prince is going up against Julio Jones or Deandre Hopkins, or some premier receiver. Marshall has been declining since 2015. And Russell Wilson loves his tight ends, except when they're Jimmy Graham in the red zone.

Who spies Wilson and a really good interior gap blitz from Trevathan and Kwiatkowski or Noquan makes Prince vs Marshall irrelevant. I don't think we'll see much of Marshall being an impact unless Aaron Lynch is given a lot of playing time. Bears defensive front should dominate Seattle's offensive line. I don't think we're talking about a 100+ yard game with multiple TDs because of a blatant mismatch in talent where you have to double or triple one WR because they're that much of a difference maker, no matter the fact Prince is adequate at best at his position.

 

I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree. I see this as one of the few mismatches their O has on our D. I'd be very surprised if they didn't attack it.

But I guess we'll see tomorrow.

 

On the plus side dude, there won't be another all season unless the Bears get flexed later on. They do play the Lions early Thanksgiving this year.

 

To me the game comes down to getting pressure on Wilson without blitzing.

Last week when Denver got pressure with blitzing they forced Wilson to throw 2 picks and his passer rating was under 70. When they blitzed him he had a rating of over 120 and threw two touchdowns.

So exploit their pass protection and get home without bringing extra heat.

 

Wagner is out as well as Baldwin for Seattle ... if the Bears can't close the deal tonight it may be a even longer season then I am currently anticipating .

 

Yeah, I will be eagerly watching, while knowing that hockey season is about to get started in full force, if I need to pay attention to something else...

 

Agree

 

The blackhawks are gonna suck, I hope you're not looking forwards to that

 

Florida Panthers and Chicago Blackhawks fan. Half-season ticket holder for the Panthers (you try getting to 41 games a year in South FL traffic). Plenty to look forward to, down here.

 

They’ll make the playoffs this year.

Won’t do much more than that...but they’ll be there.