Le'Veon Bell - 2018

I wonder if anyone is considering the mindset of the owners who have been bleeding money this past year. Does anyone think that they would be willing to open their pocket books as easily not knowing if this trend of losing money will continue? I think this may have more of an impact than what anyone thinks when it comes to signing any free agents.

And yes I know Chucky just got a big contract, but that is an outlier. Oakland had to go all in, with relocation, the fan base revolt, the team recession of the team from last year and the need to stir up enthusiasm with a possible collapse of a team.

The NFL is in a very scary position right now that no one is talking about. Stadium issues in LA. and LV., how ticket sales will be affected next year and the natural turmoil around the league.

 

That's kinda my point. If he were drafted by any number of NFL teams besides Pittsburgh he wouldn't have had the success he's had here. You know why his "patient" style works? Because he has 5 guys in the o-line that are really good at their jobs.

If he were on the Bengals he would be forced to hit the hole with authority and in that scenario there are numerous running backs out there with more explosion and breakaway speed.

He's not an elite physical presence. He's a product of his situation as much as anything. Therefore when you're talking market value I think you have to consider what kind of success he might have elsewhere? And also what kind of success would any number of RBs could have in Pittsburgh. We've already seen what DeAngelo can do.

He should have taken the deal in July.

 

Anyone opposed to tagging Bell one more time, drafting an early round (1st, preferably 2nd round as insurance) RB and go from there? You could probably trade Bell at that point. If he pouts and holds out due to the new RB that just arrives, with Ridley and Conner still on board, the team could ice him and move on. Being in that spot should make someone work harder but I could see Bell doing the exact opposite. Of course, the team could just draft a RB and say "Adios" to Bell, but that makes too little sense. He has too much value to just let walk.

Let's say the Steelers win the SB (because they will), and subsequently Ben retires. Do you give Bell $15M at that point? Bell's team value goes up substantially in that circumstance. I'm heavily leaning towards the idea that Bell, the best RB in the NFL, deserves AB money, and my opinion will fortify if Ben retires.

 

Since we are dreaming of ideal possibilities here... I'd trade Bell to the Giants who are desperate for a rb for their 1sr rounder. Pick a QB with the first one and a RB with the 2nd 1st rounder... I know it will never happen, but we could make a serious dent in the salary cap and look towards the future.

 

I don't do this often, but I have to disagree with you beach.

I think you are undervaluing Bell on a multitude of levels. Sure, I think you could find several backs that could rush for 1500 yards behind the Steelers O-line, but that isn't all that Bell is to this offense. His pass catching ability out of the backfield AND as a receiver split wide is incredibly important to this offense. He isn't as explosive as alot of backs, but he's incredibly elusive in the open field and he's physical enough to break tackles and stiff arm his way to some big plays that look destined for failure.

Lets not forget about his value as a pass blocker. Its extremely underrated how solid he is in pass protection.

He's a true 3 down RB who excels in all 3 phases. He's a very good rusher, an excellent receiver and an excellent pass blocker.

What is the true value of that? Is he worth $15M/year?

That's a question that I don't have to answer because I won't be the one signing the checks. As a fan, I want Le'Veon Bell on the Steelers in 2018 and beyond. I also want AB, and Martavis, and Ben, and the OL, and the young defense to all stay with the team as well and I understand that it isn't realistic that everyone gets paid.

Whatever the Steelers decide he is worth is fine with me. If Bell feels it isn't enough and he leaves for more elsewhere, I'll bare no ill will.

I'll tell you this, though...I'd be surprised if they didn't find a middle ground this offseason.

 

And what does it matter when compared to a player? Coaching salaries don't count towards the cap. They could pay someone $100 MILLION/year, that's between ownership and the coach.

 

He's very talented, as are most players that make it to the NFL. But he has been extremely fortunate to end up where he is. That same "talent" in Cleveland (with an HC that refuses to run) or Cincinnati (with a putrid o-line) would not even register him as a household name. Tim talks about this all the time. We all sit around and evaluate prospects left and right but at the end of the day WHERE they are drafted is often the most important factor in their success at the next level. Let me try a different approach...

Mark Ingram is a free agent in March and due to the emergence of Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees also having to be signed is likely moving on. In 569 snaps this year Ingram has carried the ball 230x for 1124 yards and 12 TDs. He's caught 58 balls for another 416 yards. He's a very good pass blocker and at just turned 28 has only 1183 career carries.

Leveon Bell played 943 snaps this year. He carried the ball 321x for 1291 yards and 9 TDs. He caught 85 balls for another 655 yards. He'll turn 26 in February so he's a little more than two years younger than Ingram and has eclipsed Ingram's career carries (1229).

The highest paid running back on a long term contract right now is Devonta Freeman at 8.25M. I don't think at Ingram's age he could reach that level but for sake of argument let's assume 8.5M per year is his target rate in free agency. Would you rather have Mark Ingram for 8.5M or Leveon Bell for 15.0M?

 

That is a fair point. Now in the Ingram context, that leads me to this, what RB in the NFL has parlayed their FIRST TEAM success to their SECOND TEAM success? McCoy was better in Philly than he is in Buffalo. Murray was better in Dallas than in Philly. Marshwan Lynch was a beast in Seattle, not so much in Oakland, a playoff cusp team. In 2011, Magahee ran for over a 1000 yds with Denver, giving him 3 different teams with 1000 yds seasons, but that's one guy 6-7 years ago. Peterson? Practically dead, but he is older now. What you're paying for is ALSO the gambling aspect. Injuries, yes, that's given, especially with Bell's history. With Bell in this system, you're buying off a part of the risk of system differences leading to a production discrepancy.

With your Ingram comparison, it does devalue Bell, to a degree and I am listening. Drafting a RB, chasing a FA and let Bell walk sounds like a 3-headed viper that could bite the team in the ass. Is anyone secure with the idea that Conner is our future feature back? We're probably not seeing his best (or worst) due to the limited work he gets on a weekly basis. I like Ridley. He played well v Cleveland and he looks bigger and stronger than he ever did. Maybe I'm shorting our offensive line by thinking Bell is worth his asking price. Like I said, I am listening.

 

Lynch started in Buffalo so Seattle was his second team, which renders whole argument invalid
In seriousness, definitely agree that whichever action the team takes it could bite them in the ass. If they sign him long term and his effectiveness goes downhill it sets the team back. If they don’t and he goes somewhere and is still an absolute beast, then the team loses out. Safest bet is to franchise him, although that hurts the cap a lot

 

I don’t disagree with you that where a player plays is important to that player’s succes but you can use that logic for just about anyone.

Would Brady have been Brady without Belichick?

Would Ben have been Ben in Cleveland?

Would AB have become AB with the Bears?

The answer to all of the above is likely a No.

So when you make a comparison like Bell to Ingram, the first thing I think is...I absolutely KNOW what Leveon Bell can be in THIS offense. I have no idea what Mark Ingram can be here. Why did Ingram only have 569 snaps this year? You can say it was Kamara but he only had 530 in 2016 in 16 games. Why has he never been a dominant player as a first round pick? Is he just not capable of that kind of workload? Its a fair question. Not many players take care of themselves like Bell does. He never tires. He never needs a break. Thats rare even at this level.

At the end of the day, this offense is great with Ben, Bell, Brown and this OL. I would be hesitant to believe it can be just as great with Ben, Brown, this OL and any other back. Not because Bell is worth $15M/yr but because I like what he brings to this offense and prefer not to risk seeing what it would look like with someone else out there.

 

Ever heard of Jerome Bettis? Marshall Faulk? Priest Holmes?

 

I think you would have to ignore how good DeAngelo Williams was in this offense to question how well someone else might perform. He was fantastic. Others would be too.

 

p.s. Payton has always been a committee guy when it comes to running backs.

 

p.p.s. I just don't see having a 900 snap running back as necessary or even advantageous.

 

I didn't answer this part of your post and it's important to do so because I'm not sure you're comparing apples to apples.

Would Ben and Brady have been the same in other cities? Yes and no. They certainly could have achieved the same financial commitment. We've seen for years as average QBs sign for exorbitant amounts. Statistically I think it's fair to say they would be challenged to duplicate that outside of their current organizations.

And I am separating those two things because that is a big part of my argument. I have no problem making Leveon Bell the highest paid RB in football - by a pretty wide margin. But the notion that he should nearly double the going rate is being supported (by some) based on his PERFORMANCE and his PERFORMANCE is aided greatly by his situation.

If Bell reaches free agency this year and someone pays him 15M per season he should be expected to duplicate has 2,000 yard season right? No matter where he goes? Or is it more likely he will achieve what the offense is able to help create for him?

 

Good examples given. Cannot deny that. The probability of getting something less than the best seems unappetizing, especially when you've had it so good. Like prying wealth from the haves, I guess. This league is built with stacks of cash. The salary cap is projected to go up $4M ($178M) next year. Still on the fence and wouldn't be bitter if Colbert hit Bell's number.

 

Not at all. DWill was a very talented runner. He did a great job, but we was no Bell. He was never the pass catcher or blocker that Bell was. He didn’t impact games in as many ways as Bell does.

I think for me I am not looking at Bell as a RB so much as a playmaker. He is one of the 3 guys on this offense that the team would struggle to win without. Thats valuable to me. Its obviously valuable to the Steelers based on their offer last year. If they’re willing to pay that much, why not a little more? With the salary cap rising and his obvious impact on this team’s success, whats wrong with finding a way to make him happy and try to win another couple of Superbowls while Ben is still able?

 

Just to solidify my point.

Leveon Bell was the 3rd leading rusher and likely wins the rushing title if he plays against Cleveland in week 17.

He was also the 10th leading RECEIVER in catches!

Considering what we all agree was a horrifically slow start to his season the first month, thats pretty damned incredible!

You can’t just compare Bell to other running backs. He does so much more than that. He is Ben’s safety net and he’s capable of turning simple dump offs in to huge plays.

You are right that the team can likely replace his rushing production with a cheaper option but they can’t replace everything he does with one guy unless Marshall Faulk is coming out of retirement!

 

If Bell is dead-set on $15 million then I hope the door doesn't hit him on his way out. Bell himself may have fared well in terms of total yards compared to other backs running the ball, but that didn't help the Steelers have a consistently good rushing attack week in and week out. They ended the season 20th in total rushing offense, which makes me wonder where the yards of other teams were coming from if we had the 3rd-leading rusher on our team.

Bell is terrific. He's slow as hell but makes up for it in literally every other way. Methinks the Steelers have possibly been running the wheels off him on purpose to make him as used as possible for a different team. If some team overpays for him, their investment looks awful if he doesn't play as well as he has done for us.

 

Tomlin runs the wheels off of all his backs he has no clue how to spell them.