This is interesting. I don't see a much better arm, if at all, and Daniel Jones is probably straight line faster than what Dart is. This is going to be a fun look back in a couple years to see just how fucked up the entire league got it over these quarterbacks.
Possibility of teams looking to get ahead of PIT if they have a targeted passer in mind. Could be 3 quarterbacks are off the board by pick #21.
Just some major hype enough to change the betting odds for Dart to go ahead of Sanders and possibly top 10.
Except…that’s pretty much every year with the Quarterbacks. Plus, per your own argument you cannot blame these teams for continuing to reach on these guys. Keep trying until you get it right, right?
I think you are mixing up my point as being against taking them when they should be taking swings, but you and I see different players in Dart. I don’t think Dart is the prospect Sanders is, but a lot of people have them in a 2a / 2b grouping. I think there may be more than one team that over thinks it on Shedeur. I had Daniel Jones, like Kenny Pickett, valued beyond the second round. These are guys you don’t want to swing on early in the first round. You want to grab them at the bottom of the first to lock in an extra year? Ok, I get it (still disagree), but #9 overall is how you end up like NYG with Jones.
Unless you don’t. I think most people felt Bo Nix was kind of an ugly reach in the top 15. But early returns say that might have been genius. Also, FTR I’m not advocating for taking Dart top 10. I see him as that player teams might be trying to hop Pittsburgh for. And realistically if we want to over-analyze the value aspect, he should be more of a 25-32 kind of pick. The reality though is if a team has decided he CAN be their guy, then they’re also afraid some other team might beat them to the punch. So they may shave 10 slots off the ideal and just call it a day.
Fair enough, but I’m basing this on my view of the prospect, not the idea of going after him. If you believe in the player, the price is always what you set it when you have the pick on the clock and they’re available. This goes to the same line of thinking I have for Sanders with both the Browns and Ravens. The player doesn’t have to be perfect for everyone, just for the team taking him. The point of my response on Jones / Dart is that I’m seeing the potential of too similar of a career arc, and think passing on Sanders for Dart would be a massive whiff. Hence, the look back and see the fuck ups take.
Do we have either four or six humans to take on a team of four or six fortune cookies in an intentionally stupid game? It's easy. If you don't want to put any thought into it, just pick any four numbers from 1 to 32. If you do want to think about it, the goal is to choose the first round picks where the player names will have the highest Scrabble scores. Last year's winner was a fortune cookie. Joe and I are still kinda pissed about that, and we want vengeance. So this year it's humans vs fortunes, Ryder Cup style. So... who's in? All you need to do is pick four numbers from 1-32. Think about it if you like, but the fortune cookies aren't thinking so no actual thought is required.
The reason I have Dart at 9 is the same reason people have Sanders at 9 but I feel they prefer Dart. Some say the Saints can trade up from the 2nd for a QB but I ask why? The 8-40 range isn't the biggest change in value except when you want to make sure you get your QB. Grab a QB now, stand pat in the 2nd or do a small trade up and the talent won't be much less than if you traded up for a QB later except you get your QB without risking the wait AND you save draft assets.
Regarding the 30 visits... an interesting twist is that they only count towards the 30 if you bring the prospect to YOUR facility. If you send the entire coaching staff to work them out on campus or some other off-site location, that doesn't count. The Falcons have gotten really big about going to see the prospects locally over the last 15 years or so, with Joe Hawley being the first example that pops to mind for me. That one stands out because Nevada had a WR prospect who was noted in the media that the Falcons were going to work out... but line coach Paul Boudreau was also on the plane specifically to go work out Hawley. They have also expanded their use of the local pro day, which I'm happy to see - it's a freebie for the players who qualify, so why waste it? Ten years ago they reportedly worked out only 14 prospects during the local pro day. Last year there were 59 of them, and the team ended up drafting two of them in rounds 5-6. And this year? 88 names on the list for the local pro day workout. When used properly, that's another way to keep a bunch of prospects off of that list of 30.
It feels weird, but as a Falcons fan I'm actually less stoked about the first two rounds of the draft this year than I normally would be. For me, the big deal isn't really who they take - it's whether they will actually stick with the coaching staff and schemes so that things work out for the players they have and the ones they take. @Campbell mentioned the importance of consistency in the guys who build the team, but the Falcons have utterly wrecked their roster over and over for the last two decades by constantly changing position coaches and systems, even when they have stuck with the same head coach and GM. I did an article on the offensive line changes back in the days of my See-BS blog. Rich McKay acquired a few linemen specifically for Mora and the zone blocking scheme through 2006. Petrino went a totally different direction in 2007, and then Paul Boudreau joined Mike Smith's staff in 2008. But he was fired after 2011, so Dimitroff hand-picked players specifically for the new system of new line coach Pat Hill, which turned out to be a disaster. Two years later, it's a whole new system under Mike Tice. But that only lasted one year as Mike Smith was fired after that season, and Dan Quinn brought in a whole new coaching staff - and a return to the zone blocking scheme with Kyle Shanahan as OC. And each step of the way, guys who were signed or drafted specifically for previous systems and coaches were suddenly not wanted. The ONLY draft picks on the line that have survived coaching changes have been 2007 second rounder Justin Blalock, 2014 first rounder Jake Matthews, and 2019 first rounders Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary - though I'm thinking this year is the end for McGary. Every other offensive lineman drafted from 2005 through 2012 was gone after one or two coaching/scheme changes, which I noted back when I wrote the article, and that has continued to be the case through 2022.
Gotta look at it through the lens of where you are in the draft and what you need to target. If I'm the Bears last season, I am spending every fucking minute I can in getting to know everything about all of the quarterbacks that I think can be franchise arms. If I'm the Patriots this season, I am spending as much time as possible looking into the top offensive linemen, and then receivers are the next up. Ideally, I want to make sure I have as much information as possible on the player/players I am targeting in the first two rounds, and then I am looking at team specific fits that I have question marks on, and rounding it out with any off the radar players that I simply have not been able to acquire enough information on. In a perfect world - My scouting department has a bottomless fund to utilize in any legal manner to get every possible scrap of information on every player on our radar. The definition of legal may have more wiggle room than what some would be comfortable with...
