It's Next Year Again . . . 2025 Version

The Browns fans I know personally are pretty evenly split on it, with one seeing him as a better option than Cam Ward, so there's that.

I dunno about the masses being firmly against it. My overall feel is that they want to drag Haslem through the streets and light him on fire, but other than that, I get a vibe that is more confusion about what to do with that pick and I have not talked to anyone that has the confidence that you do on simply ignoring quarterback this season at the top.

I disagree with the premise.

I'm not crediting the transfer portal with their success so that I can discredit the growth of the player.

You could be dead on that this is the plan.

My opinion is that this is going to look bad, end bad, and ultimately get the front office cleaned out.

And we disagree here on what it does for Stefanski and Berry.

I believe it would buy them a full season and half of next, which will be enough to determine if Sanders can be the starter.

You can't project a player's injuries.

Jones has been better than his draft slot, but my point isn't that he is the only player that he should get credit for. The point is that they have not produced much talent in rounds 4 and beyond.

But the overall arc has not been one that a GM can point at and know his job is protected.

You could make an argument about Cincy, but have the Browns definitively moved out of 4th place based on personnel in the AFC North during Berry's tenure?

Having a meddling owner is an issue, but I don't think there is an argument that he is in the top 16 GMs in the league, and even some of those guys will find themselves in the employment line.

It's not an excuse; it's just the reality.

If we stick to the current roster and not give hypothetical help - The Browns offense doesn't possess the overall talent that the Falcons does, and Kirk could not make it work.

Maybe a year removed from the injury will turn back the clock.

We can agree to disagree on the fanbase, because that's just not the feedback that I am getting.

Now, Travis Hunter is a bit different of a story. There is some excitement in the people I talk to about him being the pick and not Carter, which may look odd from a roster building point of view to some, but I get it. Unicorns always get the buzz.

The last part about improving the record - This goes back to my point on drafting Sanders. I think that is the only thing that protects them from having the same record and not getting fired, especially if they bring in Kirk.

Again, this is all from the viewpoint of what I believe Stefanski and Berry need to do to stay employed.

If they don't take Shadeur at two, draft Carter, sign Cousins and it implodes, then they only have themselves to blame when the pink slips arrive.

 

But the problem with this is that you are saying he needs to win more games in 2025 to secure his job so that he has a couple more years to rebuild the roster.

That means he doesn't have any real job security and rebuilding the roster needs to be the focus now, regardless of the win total.

The albatross contract is going to run out and the Browns will be free of it in time, so now would be when you want to dump high salary and look to add as money young players as possible. If you get a quarterback in this draft or next (I know that's your preference), you will have them still on their rookie deal while you build the roster up underneath them and prepare to hit FA to round out the roster the moment Watson's contract is terminated.

Running out the clock with Cousins or another journeyman passer until the contract is done only stretches out the timeline to return to being competitive.

 

You asked which one was more to credit for the programs growth, not the player's growth perse.

First of all.. This is the NFL.. I will be surprised if there aren't 4 QBs gone in the first round. I don't think they deserve it, but I rarely do. If the Browns don't go QB at 2, I don't think they take one early at all.

OR....

There will only be 1 in the top ten, then Sanders somewhere in the top 25 and not one else, maybe until the 3rd round. I know there are guys that are "climbing" the draft boards... IRL, if they weren't already high on the draft board, the off season isn't going to cause them to climb all of a sudden. The talking heads move them up, but they were either ignored early by these "analysts" and real information moves them up, or there isn't enough talk to move anyone significantly so they start to make up shit for clicks.

Personally, I don't see a QB in this draft worth drafting... They will, out of need, but I see it happening later. If the plan is to trade for Cousins, they are trying to win this year. There are needs on this team that need filled to be addressed if they have any chance. The biggest hole outside of QB is RB... and there isn't a close 3rd. At #2, you take a player you think will move the franchise over the next 5 years. The following rounds you look at who is available to fill the needs of the current roster. The Browns don't have a legitimate backup RB on the roster right now, let alone a starter. Every other position, they have players that have experience and some wins in the league personally.

Everyone has an opinion, if we didn't life would be pretty damn boring.

No, but a guy his size on the offensive line is going to wear a little different than the norm. I think his chances of injury are a few percentage points higher because of his build. That wasn't really my point, the point was there are other players that are more successful in the Berry era than Jones. I think Jones has the skillset to be a really good O-lineman, I just worry about his health.

They have NOT moved out of the 4th place based on Berry's tenure.... Now, Deshaun Watson is 3 out of 5 years of that tenure and he still managed to make the playoffs twice...

Top 16 is definitely going to be a matter of argument. Do we really want to go through 32 GMs and debate who is better at their job as a whole, not just picking one or two players during their tenure that tends to define their era? Every year the Browns are in cap trouble... Then all of a sudden they are the team carrying over the most amount of cap space at the end of the year. There are other skills included in evaluating GM talent. In an time space where a contract like Watson is in play and he isn't, we are still talking about the possibility of trading for another starting QB, if that isn't GM talent I need to understand the league a little better.

Don't take this the wrong way but.. No shit Sherlock. There isn't a QB in the league that could take the current offensive roster and turn it into a top ten offense. If the current roster stays intact, it might be the shortest rookie career in history if they take Sanders at #2.

I don't know your circle, but nearly all of mine are Browns fans being near Cleveland. That is not the sentiment around here. I am also on several Browns boards and there are a few people that jump on saying it has to be Sanders... with the same argument as you, they don't have a choice because they don't have a QB. It isn't because they WANT Sanders. No one is blowing up any message board touting Sanders as a guy teams can't pass on because he just looks like a NFL QB. Now Dammit, I don't want a question mark with the first 1st round pick we have had in 4 years. Sanders is a question mark, there is a soul around that will argue that.

Travis Hunter is in the conversation because you have to have choices, right? I'm not opposing him as the pick at #2, he has some wonderful skill sets. I know Berry sees him as a WR, is he worth the #2 overall as a receiver? I don't see it... If you are convinced he is the best CB OR the best WR, we can talk... If you aren't convinced of either then you are taking a player at two positions that he isn't at the top of the game... what are you gaining?

You keep talking about Stefanski and Berry's job. If they now have free reign over the draft without Haslem's input, they better get a win in 2025. I don't care what position it is. If that player comes in and is in the talk for NFL offensive or defensive rookie of the year, they keep their job because they did their job. If they take a QB simply because the one the owner forced on you and he doesn't perform once you insert him in the game, they failed. I agree, if you don't insert him in 2025 because rookies are rookies and he may not be ready, they get another 6 months of their job.. However, if they say he is ready and he looks lost and loses you games, well that's an indication that you are not very good at your job also.

Your argument is that if they don't find a QB in 2025, they haven't done their job. That might just be one of those impossible outcomes. So why would you risk your job taking someone that you don't have 100% faith in and pass on another player that you do?

 

They won 3 fucking games... If I improve the roster, I should be able to re-hire Flacco and win 4-5 games... No?

I don't disagree with your premise, but in a time when you say would to dump high salary and add as many young players as possible, they are doing the opposite. They are paying their top players and restructuring pillars in order to create more space to add more veterans, namely a QB.

We are going to just keep going round and round on the Cousins argument. I just watched the Falcons v Buccs from last year and I watched a Cousins that could lead a team to the playoffs if he stays healthy and has a defense that can keep the other team below 20 points a game. Health is the key with Cousins, but his career has been healthy. He had the latter part of the season last year to start healing up, which will give him a lot more time than he had last year while healing from a catastrophic injury.

Again, if Cousins is too old to heal, you will be right and it will blow up in their faces. If he can get healthy, Cousins has been a top ten QB his entire career and was once again in the first half of last season. THAT Kirk Cousins could lead the Browns to the playoffs. I am convinced he is the only chance they have to do so.

When talking about this draft and next... I will not say "lose" to make the best opportunity to draft a QB in 2026. Too many variables involved in that game plan. I want to win every week the Browns play. If they start the season 0-5, I will still want them to win game 6. I don't care how they do it at this point, even if that means the sexual predator that everyone seems to have forgiven finding his skills once again. I want to win.. I would rather win 10 games and miss the playoffs than win 1 game to ensure we have the first overall pick. First overall picks are nice because if you evaluate correctly your odds should go up to get a great player, but they are not sure things... EVER. I want to win game by game, I can't be thinking about 2027, I might be dead by then.

 

Yeah, that's fair.

I can dig this point of view.

Where it comes back around for me is - Malik Willis.

He was the only passer in that class that I was comfortable with a team spending a first round pick on. That's kind of the bar for me anymore when I look at this, because you could make an argument that this would an interesting group of passers to not only evaluate Malik against, but would a team (with hindsight) go back to that draft and spend the first-round capital on Willis now, knowing where he is in his career?

I think a couple GMs would, and several would pass.

So, does Ward, Sanders, and let's go ahead and throw Dart in, come in above that watermark? If they do, then there is an argument that they have the value to be taken in the first round, especially in what may be a weaker offensive draft class.

Don't take this the wrong way, but then 'WTF' when it comes to adding Cousins and thinking they are going to get some kind of result that goes above his performance last season.

We're talking about trading for a benched, 37-year-old starter coming off an Achilles injury.

This isn't some kind of GM wizardry.

This is born of desparation.

From the 4th round and later? Cause other than Jerome Ford, it looks a little thin.

That's really what I was pointing out with Jones. He hasn't been able to mine much talent later in the draft where the Browns have, unfortunately, needed to come up with some gems.

My point is that without selecting a quarterback in this draft they cornered themselves into having no job protection, and if the trade for Cousins (or the starting of Pickett) blows up in their face, not having that fallback will expedite them out the door.

 

I get everything you're saying.

I'm detached from any emotion to it, so my viewpoint is going to be different from the beginning.

Look, I hope I'm wrong. It's the same thing as when I say a draft pick shouldn't be taken in a certain round because I don't think he can live up to it. I always hope I'm wrong and the player is far better than I projected him. Same thing here. I would rather you tell me at the end of the year that you were dead on about Kirk, the Browns win 10 games, make it into the playoffs and Carter gets a drive ending sack to win the game.

I'm just talking football and sharing my opinion to someone that I like to discuss the Browns with.

 

The expectation is they are going to add to the offense. In the draft, free agency and trades. No matter who they decide on, even if that's Sanders, I expect them to add to this roster offensively. Why does it have to be graded against the current roster?

Look at his performance in the first half of last season, which is when he was actually coming of an Achilles injury, not this year. In his first 9 games he had 17 TDs and 7 INTs... and a 6-3 record. It wasn't all Cousins, the Atlanta running game is working. I believe for the Cousins experiment to be successful, the Browns will need to have a couple of RBs to wear out defenses. One of which will need a 3 down back resumé.

OK, so when we are ranking GMs, we are going to evaluate them just on their ability to find starting players in the 4th round and later? I feel like we keep moving the goal posts in this debate.

This is the one we just keep circling back on in disagreement. I don't think improving the team has to be reliant on drafting a future starting QB. I do however think they seal their fate if they do take a plunge and that QB fails miserably. That's where I'm at, do you bet your career on Shedeur Sanders? I sure as hell wouldn't.

 

Ditto

 

I'm sticking with what I said regarding Jones from the beginning -

Unless you consider the top 3 rounds as value picks?

 

I will say I have always viewed value picks as round 3 and on. The success rate really drops after round 2. 1 in every 2 players are successful in round 1, 1 in every 3 players are successful in round 2

Only 16% of players are successful after round 2 and it gets worse by round after the 3rd.

When it comes to Berry, He has only had 1 pick in the first 2 rounds the past 3 years. I would argue practically his entire tenure was value picks.

 

If I have to give an answer on the spot, without going back and looking at it for a few more minutes - Yes.

I think Sanders is a good fit for a Stefanski offense. So long as he has a beat to drop back, set and release, he can be accurate, on time and with good decisions. I believe he can be a similar style player to Kirk Cousins, or Chad Pennington.

 

Eh, just a difference in our definition then.

I can't view first and second round picks as values, regardless of what point you are taking them in the round. A GM should be able to identify players that stick to the roster in those first two rounds, and for myself, the third round is one that I view as an opportunity to add the best possible depth at any position. It's from the 4th round on that I think you are really getting your money's worth if you are adding players that make a long-term impact to your roster.

If I change it up for this discussion, and you are looking at it from round 3, then maybe Martin Emerson would be the best value pick he has had?

 

So we have come full circle to the crux of the debate, You like Sanders and I don't, lol.

My beat on Sanders is that I don't trust he will fall into the system. I think he will always be trying to do more than he needs to and possibly more than he is capable of. He has a lot of confidence right now, I think he is in for a humbling experience entering the NFL. The best players he faced at the collegiate level make up the defenses he will be facing on Sunday. I think he was a better player than most in the games he played in. When he came up to a challenge I.E. Nebraska and BYU he was deemed almost irrelevant.

Remember, Colorado had a different conference schedule in 2024 than they did in 2023. Most of the top teams in the conference jumped ship to new conferences. Colorado flourished in the new conference lineup. 2 of their 4 losses came at the hands of non-conference foes.

He doesn't have a signature win at the collegiate level imho.

 

Why limit it though to the best?

He has the following players that are either current starters or immediate backups that receive regular playing time.

Cedric Tillman
Dewand Jones
Jerome Ford
Isaiah McGuire
Mike Hall Jr.
Martin Emerson Jr
Cameron Mitchell

You don't have to become a top 32 player in your position to have value, imho. The depth of the team comes from the 3rd round down. If you can find 1 or 2 players per year on average to do that, then I think you are probably above average as a GM.

What he has been asked to do is keep the roster at a high level. What he does with trades and veteran leadership is just as important when your owner trades away your future draft capital.

 

I was asking if you agree that that was the best value of the group I adjusted to look at, because I believe he probably would be.

Or do you have a different player in mind that stands out the most?

Even if I agree, you're setting it so that you are comparing it against the current roster they are on.

Basically, if it's a great roster that would track well. If it's a poor roster, then you are comparing them against other players that don't meet a certain standard.

If you are good depth on a team with questionable starters, then what is your actual value?

That's a fair point, but do we have a track record to look at and say he has accomplished those things, or to have confidence he will?

Throwing the Watson trade out - The best trade he has made is for a player that is no longer on the roster. Essentially, Cooper helped him turn a 5th into a 3rd.

As for free agency, I would say Tomlinson and Thornhill are pretty solid moves. You could probably throw Conklin in there as well.

Is that enough to say he has done the kind of job with this roster that he has some extended job security?

And balance this with the idea that I have been a supporter of his going back to before his time in Philly, so I'm not just knocking the guy for the hell of it.

 

That's my bad, I mis-read that. I thought you were trying to down grade his abilities by stating that was basically all he's done in the later rounds. The more we've talked, the more I see what you are doing, just looking at his milestone later round... In that case, I would agree with both players you mentioned, but they have been asked to do a lot more than others. There are some DTs coming into 2025 that we will get to see with more reps. I'm actually excited to see them in action.

I actually stated it based on their playing time in the NFL, not the rosters. I don't think the starters they are behind are necessarily questionable. The Browns have arguably one of the top 3 DB rooms in the league, so Mitchell and Emerson are just good players in a good room, imho.

Jones has been behind Conklin, who is one of the best to play and Wills who was a top ten draft pick.

Ford behind Legend in Cleveland Nick Chubb, though I don't hold a super high regard for him.

The rest, I wouldn't argue with you.

He has consistently used the trade market to fill needs, Jerry Jeudy and Pierre Strong are both contributors, Jeudy obviously being the replacement for Coop.

In the past he also had Elijah Moore and Za'darius Smith

 

Jeudy looks like a solid move, but the Moore and Smith trades really don't move the needle, IMO.