It's Next Year Again . . . 2025 Version

Right now? Pickett is probably QB#1, until the rookie beats him out.

Which will likely be preseason, week 1...

The list of people that could come in and be named the automatic starter is getting real skinny.

You have anybody that you could see coming in off of the remaining list?

 

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha wtf Pickett is yalls starter now
Enjoy the misery

 

Pickings are getting slim. Possibly Cousins, maybe Flacco. Probably on a heavy incentive laden contracts. Until the rookie can stand on his own…..

 

Kirk seems like a non-starter. The idea that the Falcons would be willing to trade him on the kind of deal that would interest the Browns is one I can't see materializing, and I think Atlanta has moved past the notion of cutting him.

I like where you're at with Flacco though, and I still think CLE shit the bed when they let him walk down the road to Indy.

We might be in a situation where Cleveland simply waits to see which passer they get in the draft then try to mesh that with a similar style of player.

 

Atlanta owes him $10M on March 16th. Cap hit at that date may be too high but I believe it drops as a post June 1st cut. Penix is clearly the starter and I don't think Atlanta wants to keep paying Cousins 3 more years left on that 4yr/180M contract.

Cleveland did not trade for Pickett to be the starter and I'm pretty sure they won't throw a rookie to the wolves on Day 1. They will be going after a bridge starter if they plan to a draft QB at the #2 spot.

 

You look at the list of remaining free agent passers and Pickett's 25 starts, first round selection and time in the AFC North suggests that Cleveland may view him as the bridge.

I know that's not what you or most CLE fans would like, but there seems to be little to no aggression in the market from the Browns, so I'm not seeing any indication of a line of sight beyond a draft pick and Kenny.

 

Unfortunately, I think you may be right.

 

The chatter is growing louder that Atlanta wanted a trade so they came out hard stating Cousins will be on the roster in 2025.

It depends on whether you put more juice in ESPN and Sports Illustrated,They are now saying they will cut him before the March 17 deadline… or NBC Sports who say they don’t care about the $10M roster bonus… NBC is the only one I’m hearing this from though.

At this point, I think the Browns are MORE likely counting on Cousins being available. Pickett plays a more similar style game to Cousins than Ward or Sanders. If that was the game plan, I think they keep DTR.

I still think they draft a QB… in the 3rd round… to see if they get someone that can develop over the next few years, not step in mid season as a starter.

Frankly, I don’t think Shadeur Sanders sells confidence in NFL front offices, nor any of the other QBs in this class. Someone might fall in love with what Ward did this year, but taking a grander scope, I don’t think he is worthy a top pick either. The lack of generational talent at the top will make him a top pick though.

Browns QB room in 2025
Kirk Cousins
Kenny Pickett
Will Howard, unless Dart drops low enough for them to trade back into the first to get him…

 

I'm hard pressed to believe that the Browns are going to ignore a passer at the top of this draft, simply because they continue to fail to get it right.

Even if they do add Cousins, which may be what Kirk and Stefanski both want, he just lost the starting job to a quarterback that everyone was trying to dump on, simply for getting drafted to Atlanta after Cousins was signed for big money.

Basically, if CLE signs Kirk and rolls with Kenny as the primary backup for 2025, then this front office and coaching staff have learned nothing and deserve to be run out on a rail if things go South.

Taking a quarterback at the top locks in a 5-year rookie deal that lasts through clearing out the mess of Watson, seeing the end of Pickett's contract and, if they sign him, transitioning away from a starting quarterback that will be 37 years old at the start of this season. That age wouldn't be as much of a sticking point if we hadn't watched how he played last year. Maybe another few months of recovery from the injury will bring back some of the fastball, but this is a quarterback that looked like he did not trust his own arm enough to pull the trigger on what he was seeing.

Drafting a passer high gives an insurance policy to the coach and front office. It's pretty much the ultimate 1 or 2 year protection from getting dismissed.

Berry and Stefanski are in a position to protect their job after Jimmy's colossal Watson fuck up. I don't think they are going to pass on that policy.

One more thing that I hate to bring up - If you were Kirk, would you rather sign with Cleveland, that's in a position to do the same kind of sign/draft situation that you just came from, or would you rather sign with the Steelers and know that they are going to be starting you with no other options for at least 2025? Add on to this the idea that one will be considered a playoff contender and the other probably won't (some pundits might jump on board if Kirk is signed to CLE).

 

You are overlooking the most obvious.. These QBs are not deserving of the #2 overall pick. Just picking one won't save their jobs unless they win immediately. Neither of these guys have the skill set to turn any franchise around as a rookie. If the Browns roll with Pickett, they will be picking in the top 5 again in 2026.. especially if they force either of those two into the starter role mid-season. Then Berry's job is definitely over in Cleveland. Haslem is sick of losing. I think Haslem is taking ownership of the Watson debacle, otherwise both would already be gone. I do think that Berry and Stefanski's career in Cleveland depends on the team improving in 2025, which isn't a tough feat given their 3 win season. If they take the rookie and go with Pickett, I don't think they improve.. just my opinion. it will be 17 games of anywhere between 10-0 and 31-6 games, depending on how the defense can play. Too many 3 and outs will cause this defense to be below average, which is not a winning combination.

Kirk Cousins will be on a one year deal no matter where he goes. What is the best option to get one last contract? That is what his agent will be telling him. The Steelers are going to sign Aaron Rodgers and I believe it is going to happen before the Falcons release Cousins. The Browns aren't going to talk a guy like Rodgers into ending his career here, nor can they afford him even if they wanted to. The Steelers have the resources to get it done and will most likely see that as the best option for 2025. The Steelers ONLY think about what is best for the upcoming season to make it to the playoffs, they aren't a start over type of franchise.

I'm taking Pittsburgh off the table for Cousins, unless they don't do anything .

Cousins needs a landing spot where a) he is the clear starter for 2025 and b) has enough stones in place in the foundation to sniff the playoffs. This team is basically intact from the playoff team from two years ago, with Flacco at the helm. Different receiver room, swap out Amari Cooper with Jerry Jeudy and it's all about the same. I think it is going to be a decision between the Browns and Giants.. You tell me who is the better option. I honestly don't know enough about the Giants to make a quality comparison. I know the Browns have the defense in place, but are lacking on O-line and RB. Giants have a great WR, but let the best player on their offense go to the Rival Eagles.

Given the choice between the Giants and the Browns with Stefanski's system that he made a good career on, I think he chooses Cleveland.

 

I left something out on this one... The question will surely come up of the sign/draft situation... these are totally different situations. Atlanta signed him to a 4 year 180,000,000 contract... If I'm a QB, my expectation is that I am going to be with that team until I retire, not sitting at home watching the draft and see them pick my replacement before the ink is dry on that contract.

In Cleveland or anywhere else he signs in 2025, it is a one year deal. He is playing for one last contract in 2026. Cousins has always bet on himself, he has taken the one year deals time and time again, I don't think he will blink on this one. The Falcons will be doing him a favor, if they cut him. They are paying his second year of his contract and allowing him the chance to get one last contract before he is put out to pasture.

 

I understand your point of view, but it didn't stop the newest member of the Cleveland Browns from going a couple rounds before he probably should have...

Drafting a passer would probably buy them a minimum of 25 games. One full season to ride the pine, play a few games or develop, and another half season to see if it's on the right track.

I get that, and I don't have an argument against your viewpoint.

Just to throw out my opinion - I think Kirk could get a two year deal from PIT if he wanted it, simply because they could do it without causing issues on the cap or changing much of the team trajectory. Also, I think the Giants are likely going to land Rodgers. AAron is likely more interested in staying in NY than he is traveling to PIT.

Depending on the length of the deal, your opinion makes sense.

I would still point to the idea that he just came from a situation where they took a passer at #8 and he could be looking at a situation where they take one at #2.

If he starts slow in CLE, they take a passer at 2, and the pressure cooker is on like you think it is, how much of a guarantee does he really have to start the whole year?

I go back to my earlier point - If they go into this season with Kirk as the starter, Kenny as the backup and they don't take a quarterback at #2, the entire front office and coaching staff will be gambling their livelihood on a 37 year old passer that struggled in 2024 and a quarterback that will be on his third team, while still on his rookie contract.

That's an enormous gamble to take, and they would deserve a hasty exit if it fails.

 

Yes, but we got him where he should have gone.. In the 5th round plus another 5th in DTR.. equals what? a high 4th rounder? And he comes with pro experience to be the back up QB with a skillset closer to that of Cousins, lol.

I believe the Watson debacle has already won them that many games. I truly believe that was Haslem and he is giving them their opportunity to make it right. I think they will be here at least until Watson isn't. What they do with their time will determine how long after.

It doesn't make sense to either party to do a two year deal. The Falcons are paying for 2025. I don't know what the circumstances surrounding the amounts are if I'm being honest, but he is guaranteed that amount for 2025. I don't think a team can sign a 2-year deal, with the league minimum in the first year and another amount in the 2nd year. The only thing they would accomplish with a 2-year deal is letting the Falcons off the hook for the 2025 salary.

For Rodgers, it is a similar argument to Cousins and the Giants, what is his best opportunity for success. If I'm ranking the teams involved it is from top to bottom.. Vikings, Steelers, Browns, Giants. I throw the Vikings in because there has been chatter they are involved with the Rodgers talks. In the end, I don't think they will offer the same amount of compensation the Steelers will. Thus, the Steelers become the top option for him.

The debacle which was the Jets has given AAron more of a reason to leave the big apple media than stay. Pittsburgh is close enough to travel to larger cities for culture while having a stable organization to play out his remaining years. The Mara/Tish families have been around for a very long time, but they haven't enjoyed the same success as the Rooney family who is royalty in the NFL.

This is the crux of the debate, when we dial it down. How high are these QBs really rated compared to the last 4 drafts and the upcoming 2026 draft? It is all relevant information to try to sift through. If you find them to be 3rd, 4th or worse ranked in the previous drafts and similar in 2026, then you need to ask yourself, what is the talent surrounding them? If there are players that, when running through the same exercise, ranks higher in previous and future drafts. What makes the most sense for the health of the franchise. I know it happens every year, but damn have I seen so many freaking franchises set back 3+ years by taking a QB that had no business being taken in the top half of the top ten picks.

The Browns don't have the luxury of taking a QB they aren't enamored with. They haven't injected first round talent in the past 3 drafts. In fact Michael Hall is the only player taken in the first TWO rounds in the past 3 years.

I have to disagree here on sematics only... If they pass on QB at #2 overall, but take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round, it might just save their jobs.

I've already stated why I believe they have two years to prove their worth.. If Cousins plays and wins, it's an easy evaluation. If he plays and looks like the second half of 2024 it gets more difficult. Then you have to see what the QBs taken ahead of your guy does over the next two seasons, vs. the progress made by the guy you take in the later rounds.

If I am right in my evaluations, I see Dart and Howard as the dark horses to have success in the NFL. I don't see them as having the ready to start day 1 traits, which is still why I think they are in the 2nd-4th round conversations, but in the end, I think they have just as high a probability of success in the NFL as Ward and Sanders. If that is the case for Berry, it would be foolish to take one at #2, when he can get one later in the draft.


At the end of the day, I think Berry and Stefanski are tied to 2026 success rather than holding them to 2025. I think they are in a win win situation with Watson out for the 2025 season. HE IS STILL their QB1 and he will be sitting at home for the most part. If they can figure out a way to make the Browns playoff contenders under these conditions, they will be geniuses. If they fail miserably because any of the stand in QBs under budget get you another top 3 draft pick, well, 2026 will be a much improved field for QBs in my humble opinion.

 

I need to look at the possibility of contract structures to have a solid opinion on that part. Might be easier to throw up a bat signal (@beachbum ).

But if there really is a market for Kirk, then competing teams may simply ignore the Falcons part of the equation in order to get Cousins on a deal with multiple years.

I've been a solid supporter of Berry/Stefanski and I agree that Haslem is the likely culprit for the Watson signing.

But I disagree on the available time and how this draft would affect it. If they take a passer at the top of the first, they will get the full opportunity to work with him, which is typically a year and a half for a coaching staff on the hot seat. If they take one later in the draft, I don't think it extends them any time beyond what they would get for just signing Kirk and trading for Pickett.

IMO, without the high draft pick at passer, they are on a 17-game window that can only be extended with a better than .500 season. I have low confidence in that being the case with the type of video Cousins put together to end the season.

As for the QB evals - I haven't even started putting together any kind or rankings or board for this draft class. I'm hoping to get time at the end of this month to put in a few days of solid research.

Based on what you've posted so far, it's pretty obvious you are down on this class.

Do you have some comparisons to other classes, or maybe some player comps for the guys in this class?

 

I can't argue this.... If they see him as a multi-year "future", they could very well just try to outbid others offers of a 1-year deal. I wonder what teams that would entail, other than the Steelers? I could see why you are talking Steelers when taking this approach. I have to admit, I didn't take it into consideration because of the bargain aspect of the one year deal.

I wouldn't bother, it is all based on speculation. The 2025 season will start to sort things out pretty early on.

Current trajectory suggests that LaNorris Sellers and Nico Iamaleava will be very high rated prospects. Then you have the Manning reputation on the line. I personally think Carson Beck will make a big jump going to Miami and his name will be towards the top of the list. Many people have Malachi Nelson making the leap to the top of everyone's list, but I'm not a buyer there a LOT of speculation on that one...

My biggest expectation of all? Drew Allar emerges as the consensus #1 overall pick in 2026. I know you will see it as a long shot, he isn't even in the conversation right now, but I saw enough improvement from '23 to '24 that maturity will elevate his game in 2025, imho. I truly believe that Tyler Warren will be drafted in the top half of round one, because of Allar, not the other way around. If I wanted to plant a flag in a QB for my NFL franchise, I would be following Manning and Allar weekly. I think they will be much higher rated NFL ready QBs in 2026 than Ward or Sanders are in 2025.

Neither would have been drafted ahead of Caleb Daniels, Drake May or Jayden Daniels in 2024. They would have been in the conversation after those (3).. I don't think ANYONE expected Penix to go in the top ten, but here we are.


Now, all that being said, if your theory holds water.. I would have to flip a coin between 1 year wonder Ward and the more tenured Sanders. That's how little I think of either of them.

Final note: I think Berry's best option is to trade down from #2 and restock the cupboard. Trade down, get a top talent at their position, rather than gambling on a QB, then add additional pieces in 2025 and 2026 from the trade. I would go a step further and pass on a QB in the 2nd round. Too much talent available that high in the draft for this QB class. If Will Howard is there in the 3rd, that is where I would start taking chances at the QB position. If he isn't, hell, I would be ok with him drafting a Donovan Smith in the 6th.

 

I know we've gone through this exercise before, but the chance of a first round QB becoming your starter for the next 10+ years is pretty low... I don't mean to sound cynical, but I have a feeling in 4 years a few more names at the top of that list will be a different color also. I'm looking at you Bryce Young and Michael Penix..possibly Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. Others that are on the brink of replacement are Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa.

My point is, taking a QB automatically at the top of the draft, shouldn't be so automatic, even if your team is in need of one.

 

I don’t disagree, but a GM or HC will always have the motivation of protecting their job linked to the thought process.

 

Athlon’s view of where the passers should be valued:

 

Looks like we're at least kicking the tires.......