NFL - Random Opinions

I still like the Texans chances, but the Colts will be a force to win that division, especially IF Richardson stays healthy, but i guess the same can be said for the Texans. Im hoping the sophomore jinx doesnt hit Stroud.

Do you see the Jags as a threat? Big money and investment in Lawrance, but do they have the pieces to challenge for the division?

 

Opinion... Im still thinking Bryce Young flops...

 

Looking at this 2024 QB Draft class, Im seeing Williams, Nix, Daniels as automatic Week 1 starters. Maye and McCarthy are mid-season starters. I also think these 5 players are the real deal and will turn all of these franchises around within 2 seasons barring major injuries to key offensive weapons. Question is - When was the last time we could say this or when was the last comparable draft class like this one in comparison?

 

Random opinion... after watching it in action for the first preseason games, this experimental electronic version of measuring for first downs is a waste of time. (If you didn't watch any of the games or if your games didn't involve any of these measurements, it's not intended for use in the regular season this year. It is being tested for potential use in 2025.)

The electronic stuff works for hockey and soccer because the front line of the goal is fixed and easily defined.

But in football? Whether the already placed ball is good enough for a first down is never the issue. The problem is spotting the ball in the first place, and the experimental system doesn't cover that. It's simply a potential replacement for the guys with the chains.

Falcons vs Dolphins gave two great examples of it. (Don't bother watching the game. Painfully boring.) There were only two challenge flags thrown by the coaches, and they came on the game's only two measurements. On the first, a quarterback scrambled on a fourth down play, got close to the sideline, and slid before he could get hit. The spot was good enough for a first down using the electronic system. But the spot was incorrect. The ball should be spotted at the point where the QB first gave himself up (it was too far forward), and in this case he also stepped out of bounds as he started the slide. Challenge flag thrown, challenge successful, call overturned, turnover on downs instead of first and goal.

The second one was also a scramble by a QB who slid just a little too soon. The electronic system said he was short. Challenge flag thrown, but this time the result was play stands as called. The explanation didn't specify whether it was confirmed or if there simply wasn't enough evidence to overturn it. But if it was lack of evidence, that's sort of a big deal. As part of the experimental system, there's a chip in the ball so that the electronic system can track it. But if you can't sync the position of the ball with the video to show where the ball was when the QB started his slide or where a runner's knee touches the turf etc, that seals it - the whole thing needs to go back to the drawing board.

 

The problem is that a chip can’t decide if a player slides

 

Exactly. That's part of why the concept is already limited for potential use in the NFL.

But I would fully expect the chip to be tied in with the computers that sync the camera angles for the video reviews. The officials should be able to view any camera angle and pause it at any point, with the computer systems telling them exactly where the chip was on that frame of the video. If the only camera angle is a bad one for determining location, no problem - if they get any shot at all showing when a guy's knee went down, when the player's foot stepped out of bounds, etc, the time code on the video should be able to sync and indicate where the chip was on the field at that time.

If the system can't do that, don't even bother considering it for 2025.

 

I'll believe it when I see it in real time... There are a lot of guys that look great in pre-season, or even a few games into the regular season. Then teams get a few games of film to gameplan against and they go to hell in a hand basket.

 

Even Kenny Pickett looks good in the preseason

 

The hard part is "turn all of these franchises around within 2 seasons". If you're right and all five prove to be franchise cornerstones, that would indeed be an exceptional QB class.

Otherwise it kinda depends... it's preseason now, so for a fair comparison we'd need to take the preseason expectations from previous years rather than what we know about those draft classes in hindsight.

Last year's class was another big one for those kinds of expectations. Three certain day one starters in Young, Stroud, and Richardson, with expectations that Levis would be a starter by mid-year and that Hooker would at least be capable of starting in case Goff got hurt. Levis did start. Hooker didn't... but Aiden O'Connell did (surprise!). Will O'Connell turn the franchise around, or will Hooker become a starter (he's now #3 on the depth chart), and will the top three all prove to be the real deal over the long haul so that five of them are true franchise QBs? To be determined...

2021 had five QBs in the top 15 picks, so the preseason expectations were obviously sky-high. That year would top this year for EXPECTATIONS. Reality? After just three years, only one of them is even with the team that drafted him. Ouch...

2018 also had huge expectations for the top five, but reality is a harsh mistress.

The last time a QB class actually lived up to that kind of expectations with five QBs? I'd go with 2020, even though everyone fully knew that the Packers would sit Jordan Love, so he didn't have true "mid-year starter" expectations. You had Burrow, Tua, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts for the rest of that year's top five.

Injuries obviously derailed the top of it, but my favorite QB class in the last 25 years is 2012. You had Luck, RG3 and Tannehill at the top, but you also had Russell Wilson, Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins in the middle rounds.

2004 came close, with Eli, Rivers and Roethlisburger all fully meeting expectations and Matt Schaub taking the reins as a starter once he had the opportunity. Someone might argue that J.P Losman would make it five, but I'd say he didn't clear the bar at the "franchise" level.



So... if all five prove to be the real deal as you believe for this year, it's a rare feat - in my random opinion, only 2020 and 2012 have met that standard so far this century.

How often are five QBs expected to be the real deal and likely to be franchise QBs within two years as we go into week one of preseason? More than half of all drafts.

 

Good stuff... Thats a good class also. I personally couldn't remember that stuff.

I appreciate your comment. I think things are evolving and the talent has evolved and gotten better. Only time will tell of course.

 

WHAT THE FUCK, YOU SAY??? You left out Brandon Weeden!!!


In all seriousness though..

The biggest part of this is... TWO of those were drafted by the same team and the last one drafted ended up being the best QB of the group (I'll argue Cousins over Wilson to anyone that will listen). AND... only 12 years later, two NFL starters and Tannehill are still in the NFL (I know Tanny is still a free agent, but I have a feeling he'll be on a team in 2024), but none are on their drafting team. Teams are getting more and more antsy about keeping their core players if they haven't led them to a Super Bowl.

Since Cousins left in 2017, the Redskins have had 12 starting QBs in 6 seasons... During his starting years in Washington after RGIII finally gave way to injuries, Cousins started every game for (3) straight seasons... During that time, they finished 1st once and 3rd twice... since then, they have finished last in the division 3 out of 6 seasons, including the past two seasons.

Wilson has been more decorated for certain, but I would argue till I'm blue in the face he had a lot better situation in Seattle than Cousins ever had in Washington.. and he outplayed Wilson during his years in Minnesota.

Wilson got accolades because of Keith Carrol's TEAM, Kirk Cousins is just the guy that goes in and makes his offense better. The decline in Washington when he left and the steady increase in offense in Minnesota is my backup for that.

 

I also left out the mighty Brock Osweiler, who also was with Cleveland for a moment after one of the more surreal trades I can remember.

(Houston sent Osweiler and a future 2nd rounder plus a current 6th rounder to Cleveland in exchange for a 4th round comp pick.)

 

QB or vampire.... or both?

 

At the end of the first quarter in the PHI/NE game, Kenny Pickett is 6/8 for 30 yards. I don't miss that at all.

 

An interview with Kyle Shanahan had him surprised at the notion of kicking touchbacks intentionally under the new rules. That stunned me, as I figured he would have been all over that idea within 10 minutes of the rule being announced. But even though he hadn't thought of it or been asked about it before, he quickly responded that it was a hell of an idea.

I suspect that teams are intentionally keeping kickoffs within the field of play during preseason to evaluate prospects on their special teams coverage. But once the games count, my random opinion is that yes, it's a total no-brainer to boot the ball into the end zone every time.

Unless the doofus muffs the catch (Falcons did that TWICE in the Miami game) or decides to return the ball from deep in the end zone (yep, Falcons did that once as well), returns have consistently been out to the 27-30 yard line area. And there's the threat that your coverage team whiffs on the tackle or a returner simply bulldozes someone and breaks free. And while the new rules are designed to reduce the chance of injury, there is still a risk.

Solution... boot it out of the end zone. No one gets hurt because no one even MOVES under the new rule.

If you figure your kickoff team does a great job every single time, they'd still be tackling the return man around the 25-yard line. Anything better than that for the coverage team is basically assuming the return man screws up. Sure, it can happen, but don't bet on it. So... best case scenario is the 25 as the average. Putting the ball at the 30 on a touchback would then be giving up 5 yards to eliminate the chance that a guy breaks one and to make sure no one gets hurt. And that's assuming great coverage or subpar blocking. In reality, the returns so far seem like they have consistently been out to around the 28-30, so it's more like a 1- or 2-yard sacrifice to remove the risk of a game-changing big return.

I'll take that every single time.

 

Maybe there will be a QB controversy in Pittsburgh.

 

Doubt it. Wilson will open as the starter. Fields looking good against backups is expected. All the same though, if that’s how the OL is going to block, maybe Fields is the better option, least he can buy himself some time to get a few passes away. It’s Wilson’s job to lose for this year. Offense continues its preseason struggles, then they will have a controversy

 

I agree. The regular and the pre when it comes to seasons are two different animals. At least the Stealers have two options.

I enjoyed the run game by Fields when he was pressured, but still, I dont think thats sustainable or enough to maintain throughout the course of a season... Im sure Wilson needs to get more reps under center also. Agreed on the o-line, QB's go as far as they go, so hopefully when it counts they get some continuity... injuries havnt helped in that regard.

Good luck.

 

It’s sustainable with our defense.

 

Well, run-happy or forced to run QB's are going to get creamed at one point. Not all the time, but the survival rate may not be too high on happy feet QB's, lol. I dont want my QB being forced to run more than what Id call for as a coach. $0.02.