I could be mistaken but go back to 2010 and you see all the 1st and 2nd round names with few misses and relatively few hits on later rounds. Before 2010 it's more of a first round thing only I guess. https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te
@Campbell I’ll take the under also. And I’ll use TJ Hockenson as my prime example (him and Pitts). Both taken top 10. Both quality players, even early on. And yet, no discernible difference in the W-L column created by drafting them. We’re getting more conclusively into the analytics era. And I don’t think those W-L or impact statistics are lost on todays GMs. So unless Ryan Poles sees Bowers as truly generational, I just can’t see them pulling the trigger anywhere in the top 10. Maybe the best case for the over is King of the World (and facts about biology/science/the meaning of life) himself Aaron Rodgers pushing the brass to go get him a TE he’s taken a shine to. Other topics. Can’t see McCarthy at 2. It’s smoke screen SZN baby. Officially a month away. Here we go
Arguably Burrow as well. I’m still in the wait and see category for Stroud. I’m curious on how hard the sophomore slump hits (if it does), especially with the huge expectations.
Read a good mock scenario on CBS that came out today... Digressing back to Bowers for a second... The Jets at 10 could really use Bowers, he'd be a great threat over the middle and a great check-down target for Rodgers. Also liked the scenario of the Broncos trading up to snag JJ McCarthy and then the Cardinals pulling the trigger on Odunze. The Vikings could then stand pat on their pick spots and draft CB Quinyon Mitchell at #11 and land Penix at #23 keeping all their 2024 an '25 picks. OR The Patriots, living in the past, remember the last time they picked a Michigan QB and they go JJ McCarthy and the Vikings after trading up land Maye?
Without Chase, Burrow didn’t make the playoffs Without Burrow, Chase didn’t make the playoffs Yet some are basing Tight Ends success on whether they changed the records of the teams they were drafted to… And… there are only two team examples of improved records. Texans and Bengals.. I think there are some that hold these kids to a much too high standard when they get drafted. It takes a lot more than a single draft pick to turn a team around, even by a single win. Even Stroud had other factors added to the Texans, he didn’t do it alone. I was just trying to make a point.
I’m not knocking the players fwiw. Just saying it’s truly the analytics era. And they don’t make the same impact a great QB, or elite WR or star pass rusher can make on the fate of a franchise. Just sort of an established fact at this point.
This is just where we are going to agree to disagree. It’s the law of averages. There aren’t nearly as many impactful TEs that enter the league based on the nature of their utilization. However, when a Tony Gonzalez, Gronk or Travis Kelce come along, they are just as impactful imho. Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, hell, he only made it to one. Calvin Johnson only played two playoff games in his career. These are just two examples, but my point remains, it’s very easy to have one of the best drafted into a situation where the roster around him isn’t good enough to raise the winning percentage of his team. That doesn’t mean the player isn’t impactful. Since there are very few TEs taken high in the draft it is very easy to site failures… when the sheer number of QBs and WRs taken in the first round is discussed it is much easier to site successes. That’s my line of thought..
As for my prediction, I’ll take the under. Based purely on the speculation that there will be 4 QBs taken in the top 10. There are (3) WRs deserving of top 10 bids this year, (2) OTs, at least (2) edge rushers. There just isn’t room for him in the top ten.
Alright someone convince me that in a scenario where a QB trade up is available at 3/4 and you would rather have 11 and 23 then 6 and whatever else it takes to get it done. Moving to 6 means you still get either MHJ or Nabers or Odunze if he's your guy. Moving to 11 takes you out of that range of player. I can't see it, but I also am a Giants fan.
And cBS is also a drug induced site from time to time. I just thought it was interesting or should I say entertaining. By the way, whats your personal take on pick 6 (INTERCEPTION!!!) ? Some are saying you go Nabers or the best WR at that pick.
I have 0 idea what the Giants ACTUALLY want to do here. I genuinely believe the Giants want a QB, but I doubt they really love all 4 prospects. So unless they have a pathway to one of the guys they want... I just don't know. It feels like the late season wins against the Pats and Skins are really haunting them right now. They seem certain they want to give Evan Neal another chance at RT so I don't think a lineman is going to happen and with the Burns acquisition they won't be looking at a pass rusher here. So with all that said -- yeah it's either QB or WR. I struggle to believe we really see QB's go 1 - 4 but I really only struggle to see it because it's never happened before. I actually don't know enough about Schoen/Daboll to know if they are the kind of guys who say things like "we need a X receiver" vs we need the best possible receiving weapon. But Odunze seems to be more "what they need" in that WR room than Nabers if they do think about it that way. If I were a betting man I think they take a WR in that spot. Since we didn't do the full offseason thing here though I haven't watched much film so I don't have a real opinion on which one.
This is a cool take, nobody agrees with you, lol... the major consensus is the QB's will be flying of the shelf early and who knows what status Jones has. I presume, as of right now, Jones is QB1, so it makes sense to go WR early, but who knows. If they 'intend' tp give Jones another year, then WR makes the most sense in my understanding. Strange place to be and fortunate place to be... the Giants from the out-side looking in need a crystal ball. having said that, if the Giants make up their minds a trade at that position might make sense.
Let's say 4 QB's and MHJ go off the board by pick 5. Who would want to trade up to 6 in that case? I just don't see it. Either the Giants trade up to 3/4/5 for a QB or they take a WR. I'm sure at that point they would consider an offer to move back... but I play it out in my head and just don't see it. This class is real deep at WR so the need just isn't there. I guess someone may want to move up for Alt?
This is pretty much "chalk" at this point. Maybe the order is a little different but those are the 5 players I expect gone by 6. It's also why I have resigned myself to Nabers or Odunze. Not a terrible consolation prize.
Ah, come round to my Chargers trade down called it have you Tim? Funnily enough, i find this less certain myself now, given the way the Chargers have managed the WR position this offseason. I will be somewhat surprised if they dont take a WR at #5. Trading with Vikings will get them draft picks of course, but at the price of probably missing out on the top3 WR's.
