Quick list of quarterbacks that I consider Justin Fields as a current upgrade over (based of @IrishDawg42 's list) - Bryce Young: Undecided CJ Stroud: No Anthony Richardson: No Trevor Lawrence: No Joe Burrow: No Tua Tagovailoa: No Justin Herbert: No Kyler Murray: No Daniel Jones: Yes Baker Mayfield: No Josh Allen #7 No Patrick Mahomes: No Jared Goff: No Carson Wentz: Yes Jameis Winston: Yes Marcus Mariota: Yes Zach Wilson: Yes Trey Lance: Yes Sam Darnold: Yes Mitchell Trubisky: Yes I left Bortles and Rosen off. The thing that sticks out rather quickly is that only two starters would I consider Fields and upgrade or potential upgrade over. Now, if you extrapolate this list to include every quarterback that is starting in the NFL - Lamar Jackson: No Deshaun Watson: No Kenny Pickett: Yes Bailey Zappe: Yes Aaron Rodgers: No Will Levis: Undecided Jarrett Stidham: Yes Aidan O'Connell: Yes Jordan Love: No Kirk Cousins: No Dak Prescott: No Jalen Hurts: No Sam Howell: Yes Taylor Heinicke: Yes Derek Carr: No Matthew Stafford: No Brock Purdy: No Geno Smith: No That would bring the list to 7 definites and 2 undecideds when it comes to starters. The question becomes - What kind of market can be generated for Fields, based on the resume he has put out, the upcoming contract he will command and the need/desperation of the teams that will field an offer. I think Vegas and Atlanta make the most sense in a trade scenario, but neither are going to be willing to give up that high first round pick, IMO. I believe Washington and New England are going to both draft passers, locking them into 5-year deals and using that to help with the stability needed to make transitions from the past regime. Neither of my 'undecideds' will be in the market for Fields. The Steelers will likely look to run it back with Pickett, try to resign Mason and bring in another passer (probably later in the draft). Payton is going to try and find himself a passer that can win through the air consistently, so I think we can take Denver out. Russ will likely be on the market, so if one of the primary teams of need signs him (LV or ATL) then it further decreases the market pressure for Fields. I keep coming back to Vegas as the primary landing spot, with a trade package that will include this season's 77th pick and a conditional pick in 2025 (production based) that starts at a third and could go up to a second. Part of this is that I believe the Falcons may simply sit at 8 and take a shot on Penix. Now, just for clarification, a lot of this may/will change based on what happens with the coaching situations in different cities, but I think Chicago is going to find a rather depressed market for Justin when it's all said and done.
@IrishDawg42 A lot to unpack there, I will try to address your questions as best I can without all the sub-quoting 1) Mac should not be the one throwing to Marv. Maybe Mac can be salvaged, but odds are against it, and probably not without a fresh start somewhere else. 2) If the Bears don't take a QB, no I do not think it is a slam dunk that they pick up Fields' option. He is a talented player, yes he is one of the current 32 best professional QB's in the world, but when you're going into year 4 and still talking about a guy's potential over what he's actually done, that's an issue. If you were sure you had a guy you could win a chip with, you wouldn't be casting wayward glances at any incoming rookie and instead looking to maximize his last couple of affordable seasons. 3) Cousins and Winston both improve the position over Mac, obviously. This shouldn't even be in question at this point. Certainly not with Cousins at least but he's going to have better options than the Pats. Winston has his peccadilloes but he'd come cheap and at least be entertaining, and I think could handle holding the fort in a bad situation until the the rest of the offensive talent is built back up. And yes they do not have any years left on a contract, but that means it only costs money to acquire them, not money plus draft picks. That does in fact matter. The Patriots roster is not good. They are not a QB away from SB contention, and certainly not a QB who has never played a full season or demonstrated the ability to be an above-average passer on a consistent basis. Don't get me wrong I don't hate Fields or the idea of taking the chance on being able to unlock him, but yes the acquisition cost including both money and draft capital matters for any team, but the latter especially for one that has multiple significant holes to fill. Draft pick cost may or may not be the deciding factor in who the Pats' next QB is, but it's certainly part of the equation. I don't see why we would disagree on that. When I say "options" I mean all options to upgrade to the QB position, whether it be a FA, a trade, or a drafted player. Not options of a draft pick being any deciding factor. So maybe the issue isn't that we disagree on methodology so much as you read something into the word "options" that simply wasn't there. 4) I understand positional value matters. But so does the player. And the condition of the team's roster. These are not binary decisions. Just because the Pats need a QB and QB's get forced up the board because of positional value and drafting QB's is generally good business because they're hard to find, doesn't mean they must take whatever QB is left at #3, or that it's a good idea to trade that pick for any available QB who's marginally better than the shitbums they currently have rostered. The Pats have nothing but a collection of shitbums rostered at WR, OT and TE, as well. If I had the #1 pick, right now I would only take Caleb over Marv. I like Daniels and Maye, but I would really need to be talked into one of them over Marv if Caleb were unavailable. Marv is a generational talent at what is now a pretty high end position in the NFL, as well. If the Raiders had picked Calvin Johnson over JaMarcus Russell, would anyone look back at that pick now and say they were stupid to pass on the QB for a WR? The Bengals could've used Sewell, but do you think they regret taking Chase for even a second? So why is it so ludicrous to consider the player who's as close to a sure thing as it gets at a position that is both a premium position and a massive need for the Pats at the third pick in the draft? Or even the second or the first? The Pats need talent, they're not in position to force need, not even at the most important position.
I’ll throw this scenario out there . Would Chicago if keeping Fields swap with Washington to guarantee some capital and Washington gets Williams . It’s been done before I think Eagles moved up 1 spot to get Jalen Carter and the Bears got a little capital with the Eagles 4th round pick in this years draft. Then Chicago gets the best player in the draft MHJ and at 9 fills a hole at Edge Rusher or OT . Fields will have a better OL and a dynamic player to throw too or an upgrade at Defense so he’s not playing from behind for 3.5 Quarters .
Great little discussion point you've come up with here irishdawg, well done. I know im late and you've already done some replies but what the hell im gonna chip in anyway. Your yes/nos make a lot of sense for the most part. But yeah Darnold was a whiff. The guy was horrible in NY and horrible his first year in Carolina. Fields has been a straight up better passer and thats before taking into account the dynamism with his legs. Darnold seems to have one or two unlikely believers on this site, but dont let that sway you here. Outside of i guess a 4 or 5 game spell in 2022, Darnold has been a massive bust to this point. One other wrinkle no one else has added to this chat tho.... you're comparing #11 overall Fields to other top10 picks. Fields is still on the team that drafted him, i just wonder if for this comparison to be more accurate we should be narrowing this down to how these guys did on their first teams, not after they moved to a different situation?(Its conjecture at this point but fwiw i think Fields does better on almost any other team next season than he has done so far with the Bears). When viewed in this light i think it brings a couple more guys into the conversation who maybe got passed over. Jared Goff had a couple of good seasons on a very high powered offense, he also had some really average years. To the point where the Rams where happy to get completely shafted on a trade just to be able to move off him(make no mistake, Goff was a total throw-in on that deal. It was the two 1st round picks the Lions where after. The Rams covered part of Goff's salary too, they literally had to pay the Lions to take him). Also, and you're not gonna like this, but if we're not counting this career year and only counting his first team, Mayfield doesnt become a slam dunk. He played behind an O-Line like Fields could only dream of, yet 2 of his 4 seasons in Cleveland were bad. When its all said and done if the Bears trade Fields i promise they will get more than the Browns did for Mayfield. By a wide margin. But all that stuff is fine detail. I totally get the over-arching point you were making and its a good one. This is the short answer for my evaluation of Fields.. I don’t see a second round prospect even close to the potential of Justin Fields.. there is no way in hell I am giving up that player to downgrade my roster. It’s that simple… I totally agree with this point. Only thing that concerns me is player potential and trade market are two different things.
Has a player ever parlayed 1 good game into a bigger bag? Cos thats what happened with Jones. Fields has easily been better than Jones imo. Doesn't have the same knack as Jones for timing though. If he did he would've lit up GB.
Been thinking some about Fields going to the Raiders and how the hiring of Antonio Pierce may affect it - Following that train of thought to Atlanta and Bill Belichick makes it so I think the market for Fields may be a bit weaker than at my first glance. Like I said, gotta wait and see all the hires, but the Bears may find it difficult to maximize his trade value with how things are starting to shape up. With the Daniel Jones discussion - It would be wild to see the Giants make a move for Fields and make a competition out of passer for 2024. They can move on from Daniel in 2025 and reappropriate that money to Fields in a new contract.
Interesting comparison, and you could probably make an argument either way based on the stats - Justin Fields vs Sam Darnold Stats Comparison | Career Side by Side Records (statspros.com)
While I would quickly agree with this, based on the stats, I'm forced to admit it's a lot closer than I would have anticipated. Justin Fields vs. Daniel Jones: Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com
speaking of The Raiders Did anyone scout Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Mizzou. I admittedly watched some of the Tigers game to scout Abrams-Draine, but didn't really look at the other side of the field. He is now mocked to the Raiders at 13. 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Chris Trapasso of CBS | NFL Mock Draft Database
that's interesting. Steeler fans are wondering about Rudolph vs. Pickett. Admittedly our OC was trash and Mason Cole was letting DT's collapse the pocket to the point where it was tough to evaluate either one of them. I personally think Pickett might end up being a bust because he doesn't throw to the whole field, has small hands, and doesn't go through his progressions. But once you get happy feet, I think the anticipation of getting creamed effects your Psyche. Penix could be good, might be there at 20, but age, injury history and I know it was only one play, but he had Odunze wide open in the flat and badly missed him vs. Michigan. That one play could have changed the game. So on the biggest stage he choked, not something you want to see out of QB you are considering in Round 1. Furthermore, he was throwing to Odunze, Polk, and McMillan maybe the second best set of WR in the country that you have to weigh in on as well.
It's pretty easy to find a post of me stating Rudolph should have been the starter going all the way back to Pickett's rookie season. I think the Steelers were trying to force Mitch unto the field as a tool to get the offense moving in the direction of what they anticipated Kenny to be. I honestly understand the approach, but when you have a guy that looks significantly superior with passing ability getting pushed down the ladder in order to work towards a personal coaching vision, you lose me quickly. If I'm Mason, I'm hesitant to resign in Pittsburgh. If it were truly an open competition as was told directly to him, all evidence points to Tomlin doing the thing he says he doesn't do, which is anointing a player rather than them earning it. I will add the caveat that there could possibly be something that was not made in public reports that made them believe Mason could not lead the offense, but I have a hard time buying into that now, especially with Diontae and George not holding their opinions on supporting Rudolph (something Claypool had also suggested before his trade). However, the Steelers may give him his best shot at becoming a starter in 2024. Kenny will be afforded every opportunity to be the #1, but if he continues to be soft cheese the fanbase and media will gas up the heat too much for Tomlin to justify keeping Mason on the sidelines for very long. I'm interested to see what Denver does with Wilson, what Vegas does in the draft or FA and if the Patriots pass on an arm at the top of the draft. If the Broncos simply move on from Russ with the anticipation of moving down in the first, building up the roster and looking towards the future while Stidham helms the ship, I would be interested in seeing Mason move there and get a shot to earn that job. I believe he would beat Stidham out for that job without much question by the end of the preseason. If Pittsburgh runs it back with Mitch still on the roster next season and refusing to back down on Kenny, the Steelers are going to find themselves working backwards in the division, IMO. If they open the season with Mason as the starter, I think their odds of making the playoffs again increase significantly. Still putting together my thoughts on the passers for this class. Not sure how I feel about Penix slipping down the boards to 20. I think someone is going to fall in love with the potential, but there is a lot of talent at the top that will push him down. What happens with the Patriots is going to influence that a great deal. If the Patriots skip quarterback and go another direction (specifically MHJ), then a team like the Cardinals may try to sell that pick to someone like the Falcons or the Vikings (thinking Daniels here). I also think it's possible we could see Bo Nix end up being drafted late in the first by a team willing to either move into the first on a flyer or sit him as the backup for a couple seasons. Maybe someone like the Giants jump up, or the Rams drop, acquire capital and get him around the 23 to 28 range.
I think Fields is better than Jones in theory. In terms of stats it's close and you could argue Jones has had a more successful career so far. What really confused me was putting Fields ahead of Jones but tieing him with Darnold. If Fields is better than Jones...he's definitely better than Darnold.
I get that but has Fields elevated the Bears? If he is stepping in elevating offenses....why isn't he a first string QB somewhere? Darnold is Gardner Minshew with a far less cool name and mustache. Destined to be a lifetime backup with some memorable starting stints here and there.
I think Eberflus has this as part of Justin's resume, and another reason why the Bears are going to draft Williams and move on. There is enough justification at this point for the front office to make a case that Fields is not the answer (whether I agree or disagree). Throw in the idea that he was drafted by the prior group (not their guy) and that Caleb is considered by an overwhelming majority as a better prospect coming out, the writing on the wall is getting pretty clear. As a lifelong Bears fan - Would you prefer to retain Justin or move on with Williams (or another passer in this class)?
Its possible the top 3 picks, via Bears, Commanders and Patriots all go QB, like Williams, Maye and Daniels, which leaves Harrison Jr going to the Cardinals... Murray is hoping so.
Ive been thinking... it happens once or twice in my lifetime. How about the Vikings drafting JJ McCarthy in the first round? I think that would be a solid move. IF Cousins resigns on a team friendly deal, Id still like to see this happen. To me it would be a great future investment.
Can Cousins finish a season. Your division just got much stronger with the Lions and Packers and Bears (oh my). Lions look good, Jordan Love looks good, and Chicago has two top ten picks in the draft.
Im hoping so, thats all any one can do. They definitely need to draft a QB and reset for the future and Cousins would be an ideal mentor, but he's pricey. The QB room without Cousins is frightening outside of maybe Hall. Your right about the rest of the Division to, so something extraordinary has to happen asap.
