NFL - Random Opinions

Your actual PR's are more impressive and in-depth than anything on all the major commercial sites. Appreciate your work, to say the least.

 

Yeah i read it all, i guess im just confused where you're coming from. You initially were just talking about ranking QB's in general, not one specific trait. Then you added the comment about arm talent, which certainly makes the list more credible. There are so many naturally talented arms in this league that i tend to agree with Purdy falling outside the top16 of that, even tho i've watched almost all 9ers football so far this season(they're a very easy watch imo) and i've seen Purdy make many difficult/small window/touch passes.

Where Purdy is clearly sub standard is pure arm strength, but honestly that might be the single most over rated aspect there is re QB play. And whats between the ears may be one of the most under rated. Purdy is extremely sharp between the ears. He also has very good field vison. Like you, i want to see his temperament in comeback/clutch scenarios. We don't know that about that yet, but given how easily he came in last season and nothing was too big for him it suggests his temperament is solid.

But back to your list, which is it? Cos no way can it apply to both arm talent and overall QB play. I want to believe you were talking about/ranking arm talent even tho you didn't say that initially. That would make the list make a lot more sense, tho you need to hustle back to page 186 and move Lamar cos no way on God's green earth does he have the 6th best arm in all of football. Hurts at #4 also raises both eyebrows and Stafford needs to be much further up the list imo.

If we're just talking more general QB play then i feel the need to point out Brock Purdy currently leads the entire league in passer rating. He's also top10 in passing yards so he's throwing the ball plenty, the rating stat is no more than minimally misleading at most. Purdy doesnt just belong on that kind of top16 list, he should be above at least 4 guys. Justin Fields has no business being near this conversation and Kyler Murray is far from the slam dunk one might initially think. I swear im not trying to piss you off here buddy but Geno prob needs to be near the bottom of this list too

As always, these things are subjective, especially as you get further down. This is also why poking holes in any list is not that hard, im not trying to be a dick here. But i wanted to ask you/challenge a little bit, about it because you spend a lot of time scouting QBs unlike the rest of us.

 

If Purdy gets hurt, I think the 49ers would be just fine with Darnold.

At least until Darnold gets hurt...

 

It was more that I gave no specifics to what I was saying, (and threw that out as a quick rebuttle to RT) but I see where you get that.

He falls short in touch to arc, arm strength and anticipation accuracy, but he makes up for some of that with ball placement, which is an interesting twist. Most passers that struggle with anticipation accuracy have their ball placement out of wack, but I think his AA issue is more that the ball takes a beat to get there sometimes. The placement makes up for it because he seems to sense that he needs to protect where he puts it anytime it goes outside the hashes. It could be that he knows his arm, it could be that he waits a tic too long to pull the trigger, it could be that he simply can't beat the route out with the pass, or it could be that he wants to see it as an absolute when pulling the trigger. The fact that he manages to get it to a good spot more often than not is a very positive trait, but it will be interesting to see how it pans out against the Cowboys if the pass rush gets home.

Now, when I say 'falls short', I'm not saying he's so woefully inadequate that he can't succeed. That would be an obviously idiotic statement. What I'm stating is that if you set the mean with the average of what the top 16 passers in the league do at those 3 specific traits, then he comes in below the average. He makes up for it by completely buying into the system and playing within its confines, not hurting his offense with bad decisions and having an extremely level demeanor.

I'd be comfortable with agreeing to your lean on the positive, but the truth is that we haven't seen him have to carry the team with his arm. Is he capable? Possibly, but his above the shoulders play has to remain perfect because slow decisions or trying to force the issue with his arm are going to trend in higher odds towards being unsuccessful.

That last part rings true for every passer, but even more so for a guy with an arm that has limitations.

That list was based on overall play and very quickly thrown together because RT commented on a 'list'.

It shouldn't be viewed as anything more than me copying and pasting a previous post to prove a quick point, which was -

It's not that difficult to demonstrate a reasonable list of players that could be considered better than Purdy.

You can easily justify the rankings by doing the most generic of exercises - What would the 49ers offense do or what level would the play change with the guys listed above him?

And for the record - Lamar's arm talent is pretty underrated with a lot of people. I'd be interested to see how many arms you would put ahead of his.

This doesn't track - He's 25th in the league with only 112 attempts (20th in completions with 81).

The YAC yards rank is 11. The offense is predicated on running the ball and completing short passes that the receivers, backs and Kittle turn into bigger gains.

LOL

I'm not a Geno guy, so I'm not sure where you're going with this...

So, if you take Justin off of the Bears and replace him with Purdy...

Vice-versa, replace Purdy with Fields...

You see where I'm going with this?

Purdy is doing a great job at what he is being asked to do, but he is who he is and there is a ceiling there that several players would blow past, and several others would surpass in that offense.

It's not that difficult because of how you are viewing it, which is fine (our discussions are always solid), but in the context of taking that list of passers and placing them in identical situations, I'm not seeing where Brock would be the superior quarterback to at least 16 passers.

He may not make the same number of mistakes as some, but he is not going to make the passes and have the same dynamic play ability as others.

 

@EvertonBears
Rumor floating around that Flus will be out if there is another loss this week.

 

lol... going out on a limb there.

Seriously, with the talent they would surround Darnold with, they should be alright.

 

I'm hanging onto Darnold in my only dynasty league that I have Purdy in, based on this line of thinking.

 

Thinking about Darnold's situation also brings me back around to the Jets-Chiefs penalty controversy. It's easy to see why Saleh was so upset at the holding call on the defense. Let one team get away with blatant holding when they convert the third and long while also calling a ticky-tack hold against the defense on the same drive when that same offense can't convert another third and long on their own.

It's the one-two punch of one-sidedness that makes it so atrocious. I'm not going to claim it was intentional, that Taylor Swift being there made a difference, or any of that other stuff. But it's bad officiating to the level that it gave the game to the Chiefs on a silver platter. It's one to remember if one game in the standings makes a significant difference in KC's postseason seeding or in the Jets' divisional or wild card hopes.


What does that have to do with Darnold?

No one really talked about it much, because the NFC South was a total dumpster fire last year. But the first time Tampa played Atlanta, Tampa had a small lead and the ball late in the game. On third down, Grady Jarrett sacked league darling Tom Brady. After the play, Brady kicked Jarrett. Not only did referee Jerome Boger let Brady get away with a personal foul (for the second time in the same game), but he also flagged Jarrett for roughing the passer on a completely clean sack that even Warren Sapp called a disgraceful penalty. Instead of Atlanta getting the ball back with a chance to win, Boger gave Tampa a free 30 yards plus the sack yardage and a fresh set of downs. Tampa then ran out the clock to end the game.

Who cares, right? Atlanta ended up with a better draft pick, which they used to take Bijan Robinson.

BUT... one more loss for Tampa would have left them tied with Carolina and New Orleans for the division title. Carolina and Tampa split their two head-to-head games, and the extra divisonal loss would have given Carolina the tiebreaker over Tampa. Carolina swept New Orleans in their head-to-head matchups.

Interim coach Steve Wilks - with Sam Darnold at QB and without Christian McCaffrey at RB - would have ended up taking the Panthers all the way into the postseason. Would he have been named the head coach on a permanent basis instead of Carolina hiring Frank Reich? And would the team have been so quick to let Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold walk? Their draft position would have been very different as a postseason team, and trading up for the #1 pick would likely not have been possible.


So for now it's just one game of bad officiating, but one game in the standings may have a big impact for the future for Saleh and Wilson. I think it did for Wilks and Darnold. Or at least, that's my Random Opinion...

 

BUT…not really.

For the same reason they invested so heavily to try and replace Jimmy G with Lance, I don’t think any statement that compares playoff Niners led by Purdy with a playoff Niners squad led by Darnold holds any legitimacy.
Can they win a game with Darnold and put up a fight otherwise? Sure.
But I think most, if not all in the building believe that to have a shot at winning it all, they need Purdy healthy.

That belief is also why I was grilling Tim over his “20 QBs better” comment.
I don’t think Shanahan and John Lynch believe it. So neither do I.

 

This is definitely hyperbolic.

The players in that locker room may prefer Purdy, but they weren't trotting onto the field week 1 last season believing all was lost because Lance was the starter.

I said bottom 16. There are 32 passers.

Where the hell does 20 come from? lol

They let him slide to the last pick.

They started Lance over him week 1 last season. Then they went to Jimmy G, even after they locked him out of the building for the offseason. He was third string and forced into starting.

What Purdy is doing is rock solid, but I think people are buying into him being much more than he is at this point.

 

This is really good chat guys. Good to get some back and forth discussion going delving into a subject. I have a day today but will check in later as there's lots to reply to, not least Tim asking me for a mini list of my own, which turnabout is fair play heh.

 

Well, I really wasnt comparing Darnold to Purdy, just saying that I personally dont think IF Purdy went down and Darnold was/is the next in line, they still could be efficient enough to be a threat due to the overall talent already on that roster. Any NFL caliber QB who HAD to step in to that roster would have to be pretty lame to completely kill that offense/team. Would the replacement QB be as productive as Purdy?... maybe not, but comparing Darnold to Purdy, imo, is apples to oranges.

Lance on the other hand was always injured and really didnt have the luck or consistency to prove himself one way or another and Ive never been sold on Lance being an 'it factor' type QB, just havnt seen anything tangible from him at all at the NFL level. I also understand my personal opinion of Lance is debatable (subject to another convo, I guess).

 

No worries, take your time.

Always appreciate the dialogue.

 

I have heard people saying that they knew Purdy was good and that is why they drafted him. I’m from the school if you know anybody is good you don’t wait to the last pick of the draft. Purdy is the best QB from last year’s draft. I’m glad that the Steelers didn’t get Willis. They were checking him out like they were going to pick him .

 

Landing spots matter more than people want to give them credit for.

If Willis hits a spot like Baltimore, I have confidence that his development arc is greatly changed.

The jury is still out on Howell, Ridder and Pickett. Got a lot of football yet to play before we get to see where these kids end on the heirarchy.

I would have liked to have seen Corral have an opportunity without injury, but there appears to be a mental thing that he went through and it was bad enough for him to walk away from football.

 

@Campbell sorry for the delay, its been a busy week. Wanted to get this out tonight tho, cos by tomorrow i'll be back to shitposting about the Bears heh.

- Re Purdy, I would agree that ball placement is a strength. Part of the reason McCaffery has been so damn devastating in the passing game this season is cos he's running straight onto so many passes. At times it doesn't seem fair to guys on D. If Mc doesnt have to stop, or even slow down for the ball then the first guy has no shot most of time. Might not be flashy in terms of judging a QB, but its damned important, especially in an Offense like this.

That said, i think we should be careful not to pigeon hole this as just a run the ball short pass yac Offense. The 9ers do take deep shots, anecdotally im gonna say plenty actually. Aiyuk is the leading receiver on the team by a wide margin. I believe he's top 10 in the league while being 4th in ypc. He also doesn't crack the top 100(!!) for yac. Now there's prob a whole side discussion we could get into here about, if Aiyuk is catching all these deep passes(relatively speaking for week 4) but has minimal yac, why are these bombs not being run in for scores(?) and what does that say about Purdy as a deep ball thrower? But suffice to say, the 9ers are throwing deep often enough. Just something i want to establish for something i'll come back to in a minute.

Message received re the list, im sorry if I seemed to hold you too tightly to it. I've just enjoyed talking QB's with you over the years.

So as far as Lamar is concerned, i found the part i bolded v interesting and my minor qualifier as ive said in the past is mine isnt the qualified opinion on the matter that yours is. That said, looking at your list there are a host of names i'd put in front of Lamar for pure arm talent, and i dont think i've surprised you with that statement(i'd love to read your scouting report on him). Everyone listed above him stays with the only possible exception of Hurts. I'd have to consider that further. Erin & Herbert move ahead on the list in an absolute heartbeat. Im taking Stafford easily. Im taking Goff & Murray too(not trying to play this safe with #1 overall picks here). Its been so long since i've seen it from Watson but he was bordeline top5 at one point so i want to say yes. Fields does have genuine arm talent, eyeballs and brain are the biggest problem for him. Its tempting to say yes.

I guess he's near the bottom of my list(using your list heh). Thats not to say i don't respect him. I think Lamar has worked hard on his passing, he's gotten better. He wasn't good technically when he came in. Now, i'll always give credit for developed talent, but if we're talking pure talent, thats something different and personally thats not where i would attribute Lamar's success, relatively speaking. To back me up(a little) im gonna point out Jackson entered the league as a more rugged yet equally athletic version of Vick(!). If the pure arm was so obviously on display that motherfucker goes #1, not 32nd. Didn't they ask him to do WR drills at the combine cos there were such doubts about his throwing? I dunno.

One last thing about Lamar, he is the poster child for landing in the right spot. You said to someone else the importance of where a player goes is under rated, ive long been a HUGE believer of that. IMO there are many successful QB's who wouldn't have been in another starting spot, and many who could've made it if they hadn't been fucked over at the start. Lamar Jackson is a bust on many many teamns in this league imo. At least over the long term/ in terms of being a high paid star QB. Backup QBs with wheels can hang around in the league a long time, but without an offense so specifically tailored to him in the first place, it goes v differently for Lamar.

Im gonna have to pull you up here Tim heh, in addition to what i wrote earlier about yac offense.

When we were discussing Garropolo this offseason and disagreeing on how good he was, you refuted my contention about him being flattered by a yac offense and pointed directly to the deep passing game. Well ive just established 2023 Aiyuk, which means we've arrived at the point where you're gonna have to concede one of two things on the basis that the 9ers offense this season to last is materially the same. Either i was right in what i said about Jimmy G months ago, or your gonna have to give Purdy a little more credit here. His passing yards combined with low attempts added to his top receiver being 10th in receiving yards, 4th in the league for ypc but outside the top100 for yac proves that Purdy is making all kinds of throws, including deep ones.

Yes i know you're not a Geno guy. I could tell that when you were surprisingly off base with the contract you thought he'd get this offseason. It showed where you rated him. In my post I simply meant i wasn't trying to insert Geno into the conversation to annoy you. In terms of overall QB play i think there's def a case for him to be towards the lower end of a top16 list.

I understand the point you are making here. With respect i think thats an easy thing to say about someone who isnt as physically prototypical. The mental aspect has an awful lot to do with it and is also much more unquantifiable. Tbh because of that its not something that particularly interests me. I just feel its more realistic to judge players where they are, even if no 2 situations are the same. The "he's now here and he's now there" debate is wildly hypothetical really. Too much so for me. Not saying you're wrong, it feels more unprovable.

 

Yeah i've seen that too. Unfortunately i think its total BS. You're probably aware that the Bears have never fired a coach midseason. Well that ridiculous principle matters to these idiots in charge. Like REALLY matters. The McKaskeys think we're all in The Waltons where everybody treats each other right, says grace before every meal and goes to church every sunday. If they wouldn't fire Trestman after the most infamous game in Bears history in GB 2014, how the F will they fire Eberflush. I touched on this on the Bears board this week, still 13 games to go, can they ride it out that long?

The earliest i could possibly imagine him being fired is the bye, which is pretty late for the Bears this year. And even then i have no idea who they replace him with? Not Getsy thats for sure. I can only imagine they maybe do a Jeff Saturday/Colts thing? But i have no idea who the name would be.

If i log on here 12hours from now to find this post has aged horribly, well, that would be delightful.

 

I agree RT. I know its a QB friendly system with a great supporting act, but i think inserting Darnold into this is to maybe start getting a bit carried away. I wish no injury on Purdy, but it would be interesting to see what happened in that event.

 

Rest in Peace Dick Butkus he died suddenly and was 80.

Maybe the Best LB of ALL time ?

I'm saying Da Bears win tonight.

 

Fields to Moore all night long.