NFL - Random Opinions

Weird random thought... at times, systems like the Tampa Two defense or outside zone blocking on offense get an advantage in that they focus on players with different skill sets from what every other team in the league is seeking. You zig when they zag, so you end up getting significant pieces of your roster on the cheap. If you can make it work, that gives you a leg up as you can put your draft picks and free agency dollars into other areas of the roster.

Now take that idea a few more steps. Would it be possible to build a whole new defensive concept that plays off of this, taking guys with skill sets that aren't in demand for other teams but are "system fits" for you, and building an entire defense on the cheap?

Say your team is in cap hell and also in need of a complete rebuild. Your defense is going to suck no matter what system you try to play because you have a budget of $13 and six box tops to bring in players. You might as well try something a little "out there". The primary goal is simply to put something together dirt cheap for a year to get the team out of cap hell. If the defense actually WORKS, that's a bonus.

I think I actually have the core concepts worked out. It's so utterly stupid - and I mean Three Stooges caliber of stoopid - that every now and then it might actually work just because nobody plays it / sees it. But the main thing: it's cheap. If you're the GM, that's how you pitch it to the team owner before the start of the league year. If it tanks, you get great draft picks and actual cap space to start building the real defense next year.


Here's the first concept: everyone here is familiar with single-gap vs two-gap systems, particularly as the main flavors of 3-4. I'd like to introduce the zero-gap system.

The nose tackle has only one job. At the snap, his task is to push the center into the backfield as quickly as he can, driving him back to the quarterback if possible.

That's it. He has no lane responsibilities, and I don't care if he doesn't make a single tackle all season (he probably won't). His only role is to abuse the center every freaking play for the entire game. Crush that pocket. Make the RB change directions at the handoff just to get around his own center. Open a hole for linebackers to get into the backfield.

My thought is you need three guys playing in rotation to pull this off. That may sound difficult to obtain, but keep in mind that absolutely no other skills are needed. These guys don't even need to have NT or DT experience. Have your scouts found a right tackle prospect who is kinda big, strong as an ox, but gets beaten around the edge 10 times out of 10? Got a hoss of a guard prospect who is too slow to pull and can't pick up a stunt to save his life? They're perfect! Make them nose tackles, and now they'll be lining up against opponents who actually want to stay in front of them.

I think you could make it work with off-the-street free agents, undrafted rookies and/or guys plucked from practice squads. No draft picks or significant cap space required. The scouting part should be pretty easy. The main thing you need to find out is how they do in the weight room and especially against the sled.


That's component #1 of the Stoopid Defense.

So... mull that over. Do you think an entire defensive system can be built around a "zero gap" nose tackle?

 

in my opinion, it’s an over commitment. The level of LBers and DBs you would need to cover the gap in the middle back of the defense would overwhelm the savings you get by committing (3) cheap NTs to the roster. If you have that kind of assignment from the nose, you automatically have to commit one LB to that space on every down. That would open a lane for a LB, but it also opens a huge gap for the offense to build a scheme around. It would be tailor made for an RPO. A QB that could read the LBs post snap would own you all day long.

 

Well, it won't be such an overcommitment. It gets much more stoopid...

 

Component #2 of the Stoopid Defense:

The other two linemen will line up on the B gaps (not on the man, not on the shoulder, but dead center on the gap) and will attack the gap on the snap. In theory they're trying to get into the backfield to wreak havoc. In reality, the goal is to get double-teamed so that the B gap simply doesn't exist.

The players we want? Nose tackles, just like the guys we have playing the NT position. Yep, a three man line with three nose tackles. (Hey, I did call it the "Stoopid Defense.")

A lot of NT prospects don't make it onto NFL rosters or stick on NFL rosters because they don't have two-gap skills, can't read their keys quickly enough to be effective, etc. They're big and strong but otherwise useless. That also means they're available and cheap - which are the most vital components of this system.

We're going to simplify it to the point that their playbook is an index card. We want about 10 of these defensive linemen on the 90-man offseason roster, and we'll explain it to them (and maybe even give them the index card to prove it) before they even sign.

The recruiting pitch is something like this: "We want you to be good sumo wrestlers for the NT spot and capable enough at attacking a gap to force a double-teams at the other two DT spots. That's all we want. There's no system for you to learn. That index card is your playbook.

There will be ten of you in the offseason program. If you can do those two things, all ten of you will at least make the practice squad. There's room for all of you. The seven of you who do it best will make the roster and will play. If you can't do those things, you won't make it out of training camp and we'll try other prospects. So if you don't think you can do those two things, give me back the index card and don't sign."

In terms of the roster it's seven guys for three positions, who are basically interchangeable parts. In terms of X's and O's, it comes down to the same thing as a single-gap defense in that you have four guys taking responsibility for four lanes. Two DTs plug the B gaps. The NT turns the two A gaps into a single AA gap. A linebacker has run lane responsibility for that AA gap. (He might attack the gap, depending on the play call. Probably not. But he has lane responsibility - someone running around the NT/center and into that hole is his responsibility.)

Other Stoopid touches: we'll have a sumo wrestling coach as a defensive assistant. And we'd have to check to make sure we can do this within league rules, but we'd send the ten DT prospects to a sumo wrestling training program during the break between minicamp/OTAs and the start of training camp.

 

Component #3 of the Stoopid Defense: cornerbacks.

I'm going to skip over the LBs and the rest of the run defense assignments for now and get straight to one of the big challenges. In most cases, if you play with nothing but discount cornerbacks, you're in deep trouble. The Falcons demonstrated that quite clearly last season in a stretch where pretty much everyone was hurt. They played a second year mid-rounder making just his second career start across from a guy literally being activated from the practice squad for that game. Those two started again the following game. Shocker: the team gave up 800 passing yards in two weeks.

It's a serious question as to whether it's even possible to put together a pass defense that has a snowball's chance in hell of success when all the CBs are pulled in from the bargain rack at Filene's Basement. The best approach I know is the cover two shell, so that the inexperienced cornerbacks have safety help behind them. Using another Falcons example, new head coach Mike Smith opened the 2008 season with a "veteran" CB entering his second season with 11 career starts and 16 games played. The other starting CB was on the prior year's practice squad with two game appearances at the end of the year. The nickel corner was a third round rookie (who turned out to be a bust). It wasn't always pretty, but it was effective enough that the team made the playoffs. Having that safety help behind the corners made it work.

They didn't play the "Tampa Two" version, but I like how that system puts emphasis on jamming receivers at the line. The principle is that it delays them from getting into their routes, which extends the amount of time that the quarterback has to hold the ball. So we're going to give that a go. Instead of bump-and-run, I want to play maul-and-run. No receiver gets off the line unscathed.

That means I'm looking for larger, physical guys who have enough speed to hang with a WR for a few seconds (the typical bump-and-run profile, but on the larger end of the spectrum). Best guess is at least some of the guys available will be failed safeties. They didn't take good angles, didn't diagnose the play quickly, frequently went for the big hit rather than wrapping up, and fell out of favor with their initial teams. If they have speed close to 4.5 with decent cone and shuttle drills, sign them for training camp and see how they do. And be ready to go shopping off of practice squads for "real" corners all year long in case someone gets hurt or is a total bust.

Will this defense work? Probably not. But it is GUARANTEED to be cheap enough to get you out of the worst cap mess imaginable.

 

What do you think of Jesse Bates, cuz he's a Falcon now. A Safety albeit, but hey... secondary.

 

It gives Atlanta an established star at safety to go along with likely rising star in 2021 second rounder Richie Grant, who became a starter last season. He'll be an impact player and his presence will also help the cornerbacks. It's a big move.

Signing him wasn't exactly a secret, especially after he and his agent had dinner with several Falcons players who are also represented by that same agent. But the clincher had already happened and for the most part slipped under the media's radar. When they did their coaching shuffle, the Falcons moved Steve Jackson from offensive assistant to defense as the secondary coach. Jackson was previously Bates' secondary coach with the Bengals.

All of today's moves fit with the team's tendency to bring in guys they know. David Onyemata played for new Falcons DC Ryan Nielsen in New Orleans and Jonnu Smith played for Falcons head coach Arthur Smith when they were both in Tennessee.

 

All in the family.

 

Another thought on Atlanta signing Bates... at first it would appear that Jaylinn Hawkins is the odd man out at safety. But is he really getting taken off the field? I'm not so sure about that, especially with former nickel corner Isaiah Oliver being allowed to walk away only to sign a cheap deal with the 49ers.

One thought is that if Ryan Nielsen and Jerry Gray put in a "big nickel", Hawkins could easily step into that role. With Casey Hayward returning from IR, that would mean the secondary might be A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward as the starting CBs, Jessie Bates and Richie Grant as the starting safeties, Hawkins and Dee Alford as the nickel backs, with Hawkins as the top backup at safety and Alford joining Darren Hall as the top backups at cornerback.

For this stage of the offseason, that's not bad at all.

 

Component #4 of the Stoopid Defense: the safeties.

The cover two shell only works if there are two reliable safeties backing up the cornerbacks. Can we get those reliable guys? It's going to be shaky if we're on a low budget, but we can certainly take a shot at it.

We're not looking for the big hitters or the Pro Bowl studs (which we can't afford) - just guys with enough zone coverage skills to handle back-end duty along with reliable tackling techniques. I'd want some experience in this group rather than rookies, preferably a mix of rising prospects and seasoned veterans. That means these guys will be the most expensive players on the defense, though we'll still stay well under $2 million for each of them.

Two examples of current free agents I would already be signing:

Duron Harmon, most recently with the Raiders, would be the grizzled veteran leader. I don't know how much he has left in the tank, but he played 95% of defensive snaps for Las Vegas last season. If I take extra measures to help keep him fresh, he should be able to start for another season.

He'd be a good choice because he has that experience - and more importantly because he would likely be willing to play for a doomed team knowing he's getting a steady paycheck. (He spent the last two years with the Falcons and Raiders, after all.) I'd offer him $1.6 million with $800k guaranteed ($425k in per game roster bonuses) and let him know that while I plan to start him, I'd also want him to rest one out of four training camp practices and one practice session per week, staying fresh by helping to coach the younger guys rather than physically participating in drills.

If he's interested in continuing his career, that should be really tempting - more money and more guaranteed money than he's seen the last two years, more rest, and a headstart towards a potential future coaching career.


Jonathan Owens (Texans) would be an example of a rising prospect, though he's already 28. He's a small school prospect who spent a lot of practice squad time and finally started last season. So he has some experience but not a lot, and he's now a bargain rack free agent. But he has tremendous athleticism, with a superstar workout at his pro day back in 2018 (sub-4.5 in the 40, 43" vertical, 4.06 shuttle and 7 seconds flat in the cone drill). And now he has worked his way up to being a potential starter - and we can probably grab him cheap. If he's not already getting a real payday elsewhere, I'd throw a $1.2 million offer at him - fully guaranteed - and let him know I plan to start him across from Harmon. I'd also point out to him that a rebuilding team means lots of opportunities for a safety to pad his stats and that he'll have a chance at the open market again next year.

There are quite a few other bargain rack free agents available. If I could get Harmon and Owens as the starters, I'd sign two more (ballpark $800-900k each) as the backups and to rotate with Harmon or to fill in one of the other roles on occasion. I'd also look for UDFA rookies in the same mold as Owens to groom on the practice squad. Those guys are out there.

 

Wrapping up the position list on the Stoopid Defense: the linebackers.

Quick reminder... the desired profile for all players on the Stoopid Defense = CHEAP. But it's not just a matter of finding 11 unemployed guys and calling them a defense. The idea is to design a whole new scheme, preferably an utterly INSANE one, that emphasizes skill sets otherwise not in high demand around the league. Take guys the other teams aren't jumping to sign but that are system fits for you and then exploit what they do best.

So... the cheap linebackers who can be assets in the right scheme? I'm going for the slightly undersized fire ants, or the LB / safety 'tweeners. They always slide down the draft board, land on practice squads and seem to be available as cheaper free agents. Just one example = the Saints did not resign Alex Anzalone when he finished his rookie contract. The Lions scooped him up on a one year, $1.75 million deal, then repeated it with a one year, $2.25 million deal last year before finally signing him to a better contract this offseason.
There are many, many more examples out there, but you get the idea. If the problem is that nobody can figure out if the guy should be a safety or a linebacker, we're interested. If he is a reliable tackler and is quick (with good sideline-to-sideline range), we want him. If he also has coverage skills (probably a former DB) or impressive shuttle and cone drills, we're drooling.


Before I hit the three LB roles, I'll go ahead and acknowledge that a major schematic weak point of the system is outside run contain in the nickel package. This is mainly because I'm a stubborn old goat and I plan to keep the three-NT front even against a 3- or 4-WR package. So the nickel package is a 3-3-5, and since the LBs are all LB/safety 'tweeners, the dime is the same thing.

The three LB roles in the nickel setup are the edge, the rover, and the spy.

Rover: you might know this position already, as the concept is more than 40 years old. If you aren't familiar with the idea of a rover back, think of a "big nickel". Now take that big nickel and make it a full time, regular starting position in your defense. Presto - that's a rover back.

The name "rover" is allegedly a nickname for "roving safety". If it makes more sense to you to think of him as a DB, knock yourself out. I don't mind. Most systems that use a rover back do count him as a DB. But in this idiotic system I'm throwing together, I'm looking for players closer to LB weight than regular safety weight and my safeties are cover two specialists rather than guys who deal with TE coverage and run support. So I'm referring to him as a linebacker.

His primary task is to line up on the TE. If the TE is positioned in-line, he lines up on the outside shoulder. At the snap, he jams the TE and tries to drive him inward into the tackle. If the TE gets away from the jam and goes on a pass route, the rover goes with him in man coverage. And if the TE stays with the rover and blocks, perfect - the rover should now be positioned to the outside and have leverage for outside contain. Rover and spy share outside contain in nickel, with the spy having sole responsibility when the rover is out in pass coverage.

If the TE splits off the line, the rover lines up directly on the TE and jams him the same way the CBs jam the WRs. Jam aggressively and stay with him in man coverage ("maul and run") with safety help and possible middle zone help.


Edge: should be obvious. He lines up on the weak side well outside of the tackle (aka the 9-tech position). It's commonly known as the "wide nine" today, but the concept is another one that goes back at least four decades. Buddy Ryan incorporated it into the original version of the 46 defense, with the weak side defensive end lined up at 9-tech.

He does have outside run contain on that side, but in general his mission on every play is simple: seek and destroy.

This is also where the pieces of the puzzle fit together. Having the three big linemen even in the nickel package is intended to keep the edge and the spy clean. The edge rusher gets help in the DT lining up on the gap and attacking the gap at the snap. If the tackle breaks away to try to block the edge, the DT will have a leverage advantage on the guard, who is left to side-step into or backpedal to try to slow down a charging NT-sized defender.


Spy: this is the most difficult role on the entire defense. Like the two safeties, the spy actually has to read the play and fill a variety of roles depending on the situation. He lines up as the middle linebacker in the short zone. Against the run, he follows the ball - he has responsibility for the AA gap created by the nose tackle, but if the run goes to the strong side in the nickel package, he needs to be able to follow and make the play before too much damage is done. (This is why we need the undersized, speedy fire ants.) Against the pass, he assists in the middle zone if he can. And if the quarterback is inclined to run, well, that's why he's called the spy.

Yes, it's a huge job for a traditional linebacker. It's more like a job for a free safety... or in this case, a safety/LB 'tweener. The main thing working to his advantage are the three nose tackles in front of him. His role also gets a bit easier when the defense is NOT in the nickel package. He still has to read and react, but he has more help on the strong side.

The recruiting pitch: if you can read and react quickly enough to hold down the fort at the spy position, you will have a LOT of highlight reel plays and get a lot of attention heading into free agency in future seasons.

If the offense is not in a 3-WR set, the extra LB for the base package is either a second edge or a second rover (if it's a two-TE formation).


I'd hope to be able to find some cheaper free agents in order to get guys on the field with some experience. But if I can't find the right skill sets for under $2 million, so be it. There are some intriguing larger safeties and smaller LBs that look like they might go undrafted. We'll stock up on UDFAs and then steal the experienced guys from someone else's practice squad.

A few examples of intriguing prospects: Arizona safety Christian Young has been playing the rover role (Arizona calls it the Viper) for the last two years and has the speed to be an outstanding Spy. Chamarri Conner from Virginia Tech is another, though I suspect he'll get taken on day three of the draft. He listed as a 202-pound safety at the Combine, but he previously played middle linebacker in the 240-245 range. He also has experience as a DB and "big nickel". I'd see if he can get back up to 215-220 without losing too much speed and cross train him between the rover and spy positions. I suspect his teammate Dax Hollifield will also hear his name called on day three, but he'd be another to try at the spy position and cross train him as the edge.

Linebackers like Deshawn Pace (Cincinnati), Khari Coleman (Mississippi), Carlton Martial (Troy) and safeties like Josh Proctor (Ohio State), R.J. Moten (Michigan), Nico Bolden (Kent State) and Latavius Brini (Arkansas) would also be on my radar. If they all went undrafted, I'd be looking to sign all of them. They'd all have legitimate chances of making the roster and even starting.

 

Pretty sweet how the eggs are properly lined up in divisional format.

Happy Easter

 

I read where the Oakland A's (MLB) are looking to (perhaps) relocate to Las Vegas and it occurred to me that I remember when they were the Philadelphia A's. That was before they became the Kansas City A's. Others along this line are;

• The Boston Braves moved to Milwaukee the same year my family moved to Ohio. They (the Braves) then moved to Atlanta. I'm still in Ohio.
• The Dodgers still played in Brooklyn.
• The (MLB) Giants still played in New York.
• Washington DC still had the Senators.

@nybites is right . . . I do indeed fart dust.

 

Its actually amazing, you are indeed blessed, the alternative sucks!

 

During the draft, the media heads referred to WR as a top need. Atlanta didn't select a receiver at all.

So here's a bold statement that might raise a few eyebrows: the Falcons have a very strong trio of receivers - not the very best in the league but arguably top ten.

The twist: only one of them actually has "WR" next to his name on the roster. But does that really matter?

 

And Cleveland had the Barons.

 

In my Money League Fantasy NFL I managed to get the 1st pick 2023.

The thing I don't like about the 1st pick is I have to wait awhile to make my 2nd pick (23 Picks)....

I will pick a RB @ #1....but if anyone has good advice about who to pick I would appreciate that.

Of course I'm leaning towards Oh Henry ......but I also looking at Walker 111 from Seattle....but he got hurt at the end of last year.

I have a funny feeling QB's are going to be a HOT pick in the 1st RD and 2nd RD this year.....???

Thank you to anyone willing to give advice.

 

Fantasy Football Talk in General
or the forum it's in if you want to start a new thread.

 

Do writers linking Hopkins to the panthers or texans really believe it or are they just stupid? I get they have cap room but I doubt he is looking for the fattest contract at this point in his career.

Top contenders in my book
Chiefs, Bills, Eagles
Dark horses
Ravens, Jets, 49ers
Long Shot
Dolphins

Titans fans have been all over the radio half saying yes hlf saying they dont want him ive go news for them Hopkins doesnt want them.