Same old song and dance... The QBs, except this year there are actually several that are intriguing if they all declare. Will more teams be in the market to draft a prospect in the first, instead of re-treading some fairly successful veterans? Especially with the somewhat success of Pickett last year? He was sporadically viewed all over the board, go the only first round nod and produced for the most part up to rookie standards. This crop of signal callers seem to be more lauded than he was. Does that mean we could see around 4-5 go in the first round? Bryce Young- top 5 overall CJ Stroud- top 5 overall Will Levis- possible top 10 Anthony Richardson- possible top 10, most likely mid teens Then a couple more, imho, that could garner consideration for the first round Tanner Mckee Hendon Hooker (probably would have been considered a first round prospect had he not been injured.) I know QB is a cop out, but this year's class is very interesting, imho.
Jumping a class - I'd like to see Kurtis Rourke enter the transfer portal and start on a roster that could get him a little national exposure.
Id think the Bears out to take a long good look at, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Buckeyes. They need a good target.. I think they'd make a great pairing. If the Bears dont get him, I suspect the Cowboys might pull the trigger as they need a wideout in the Draft also. Njigba is a no-brainer 1st rounder tho... someone will get a good one. There is a pair of OT's at OSU that will go in the 1st also, Parris Johnson and Dawand Jones, both Captain Obvious and Homer picks. In the 'intriguing', not so popular category is a couple from the MAC at the Edge position... Jose Ramirez out of Eastern Michigan and Thomas Incoon from Central Michigan. Both are/were beasts in the MAC, great sack numbers with a ton of tackles. So, im interested to see if they get their big chance.
You won't be able to escape doing the QBs. But if you want to do something a little different this year to get more mileage from compressed time, explain the details behind your numbers/ratings for the top 10 QBs. Tell us how you view their accuracy (accuracy throwing on the run is a big one for me), throwing when under pressure, and whatever jumps out at you as their strong points or Achilles' heels. In other words, scoring Justin Fields (929) ahead of Zach Wilson (892) was great. If you had done a few paragraphs explaining the details, that would have been pure gold that would draw extra traffic to the web site every draft season for the next decade. Ditto with Lamar Jackson. We had some outstanding discussions on him during the mock draft that year, and you were all over the idea that he could work out very well and be worth a first round pick - in the right system. Whenever you see a future Fields or Jackson, an article along those lines would be a gem for the front page of the site. As a viewer / reader, this year I'll be scouting the internet the most reading about the defensive tackles - both the run-stuffers and the interior pass rushers. Not necessarily the first rounders, but more of the potential third to sixth rounders - the Mazi Smith / Byron Young / Gervon Dexter / DJ Dale / Jalen Redmond neighborhoods of the draft. Are there some future Javon Hargraves or Geno Atkins to be had in this year's group, or is the class a steaming pile of Ron Brace?
The website is no longer holding ads or taking in any income of any kind, so I have zero motivation to work on bringing in traffic. I have a couple other sites that I operate for business, so I just run this off the same server as a free service for the people that like to spend time shooting the shit here, such as yourself. However, I have broke it down several times over the past how it is that I came to those numbers. I'll probably never release the exact spreadsheet formula that I use, but it's not that different from a lot of other people's methods. I just personalized it, and the only reason I threw out the numbers every year instead of just the ranks was to create a table for me to look back at and compare where I ranked players historically. That was also something that I had originally intended to keep to myself, but just ended up sharing through conversation and it worked its way onto the boards. Briefly - I have a scoring metric that weighs individual traits differently (multiplier), and within those traits there are different characteristics that are also separately weighted. The best example would be how I view accuracy/throwing ability for quarterbacks. I don't see it as simple 'accuracy', but I see it in 5 categories: Arm Strength (raw throwing power) Target Accuracy (throwing darts at a dart board) Anticipation Accuracy (ability to throw receivers open) Ball Placement (ability to understand where the ball needs to be to aid the receiver) Touch to Arc (layering throws, dropping passes in the bucket) Each of those would be scored individually (with a multiplier), then those would be totaled (with a separate multiplier) before being added to other scored traits. It was something that I built to try and remove my own bias from how I scored and ranked players. For the most part, it worked pretty well and my numbers would agree with my gut, but sometimes... Then all you can do is stick with the numbers and move on. If not, trying to grade an entire class of rookies becomes an impossible chore because there simply is not enough time to re-re-review everything. If I had to start all over again, I would have just scouted passers and receivers. It's not a coincidence that I have done my most accurate work with those two groups because I tend to enjoy scouting them a great deal. This would be part of the numbers group that is separate from the simple throwing metric above, but 'under pressure' tends to be something that is a bit more difficult to discern. There are so many different types of pressure and so many variations in talent from team to team at the collegiate level that we sometimes see a guy's comfort level change drastically at the next level. I tend to be a bit more wary of guys that have great offensive lines and get squirrely over that one or two true threats they get a game then I do a passer that has to move out of the pocket constantly because he has Swiss cheese in front of him. Scouting them from a clean pocket compared to constant rush is a bit of a best case scenario approach, but I try to see it from both ends of the spectrum, when possible. Accuracy on the run is something that I look at differently for different prototypes, so it would get a different multiplier depending the type of passer. It's way more important for Lamar Jackson than Jared Goff, so I tried to treat it as such. This will be the first year in over a decade that it will be difficult for me to find time to do any really deep scouting, but if this position group has your interest then I will get you some opinions on it by the end of the weekend.
I have to start digging into them at some point, but on Bryce Young... What are your thoughts on Bryce Young's style of play and body type transitioning to the NFL?
And a big fucking thank you to you, Tim for having this site up. I for one, am deeply impressed , appreciative, and blessed to know and talk to all of you, period. I spend a bunch of time here, because this site rocks!
How much of 'accuracy is on the QB or the WR? I could throw some lame ducks up back in the day and a good hands guy would haul it in. My point is this.. Is there a way to factor in a QB's accuracy not based on super talented WR's other than throwong a football threw a tire at 50 yards?
Another cop out on my part, but there have been very few succeed in the under 6' category. Bryce young might tip toe his way to a 5'11" stretch. I think it will be a hinderence given the NFL coaches history of not changing schemes to move QBs out of the pocket. If he gets the right coordinator (has he shown his face in the NFL yet?) he could succeed. But again, historically, coordinators and HC alike bring a guy in and expect them to play the traditional NFL QB role... I don't think Bryce Young will be able to do that. It's one of the reasons I have CJ Stroud above him. CJ is a traditional QB in every sense. I truly believe he has the highest ceiling and the highest floor of all the 2023 candidates.
Oops.... I should have been more clear. I didn't mean for you to reveal/explain your scoring metrics on the QBs. I meant it in the sense that if C.J. Stroud scores 900, Hendon Hooker scores 750 and Stetson Bennett scores, say, negative 250, a paragraph or two for each one outlining what you see as their strengths and weaknesses would be fantastic. Some words rather than just rankings and numbers, especially since coach / system fit is so critical for so many of these QB prospects.
I didn't know this. A huge genuine thank you from over here Tim. To those of us Bears fans still left it means more than you probably know.
Thats great stuff. Other than maybe under-emphasizing his athletic skills(perhaps a result of less evidence in college) your thoughts on Fields are very accurate thru 2 seasons, particularly throwing accuracy on the run and continuing difficulty to function effectively in shifting pockets. The latter is something that has been noted numerous times on our board and which i put down largely to a result of his insane athletic ability. While i doubt Plato was talking about football at the time(lol), if necessity really is the mother of invention then Fields simply doesnt to need to "invent " ways to survive in the pocket that extra beat or two, he can simply bail. Immobile QB's don't have that luxury, they have to develop this skill in order to survive.
Indeed, many thanks for keeping the server space open for all of us, Tim! And I'm glad to hear that there are other web sites for business.
No rush. And really no need to do it at all if you're busy. DT is simply the most interesting position for me this season. Thanks!
I’m going to say the TE group. Some real talent and starters in the top 100. Only the CB class is deeper. I really liked Darnell Washington before the combine , now… WOW Dude has huge upside. A draft guru on ESPN (that’s an oxymoron ) has 4 TE in round 1. Fine Mel but after the top 4-5 OT’s who’s left. There isn’t 12 teams that won’t draft an OT and it gets really thin after Wright and D. Jones depending on your grade . So I follow nfl mock database as a guide not the Bible because I look for trends and how the board is stacked . Take OT here are the top 10 rankings overall : 10,14,20,31,35,36, 62, 79,96, 115 now take the top ten TE rankings: 21,26,33,46,60 69, 129, 135, 160,164 you’re the Bengals end of round 1 and need OT are you going TE when you know after Harrison @36 the next guy is Mauch ranked 62. But if you wait and go TE end of rd 2 players 60 & 69 should be there you’re not reaching . So when I do a mock I always value OT ahead of TE but behind QB 2023 Consensus Big Board | NFL Mock Draft Database thoughts
