Here's a list of potential QB needy teams we could trade down with and their current draft position: 2) Houston Texans 4) Indianapolis Colts 7) Las Vegas Raiders 8) Atlanta Falcons 9) Carolina Panthers 11) Tennessee Titans 12) Houston Texans (via Browns) 13) New York Jets 16) Washington Commanders The most ideal + realistic trade down scenario seems to be the Colts. Depending how high they are on Stroud/Young, I would move back to #4 for their first round pick next year and their second round pick this year. Then again they are the Colts so they may try to fix their issue with an aging vet like Derrek Carr. I'm guessing the Texans will stay put at 2 and take whichever QB is left. What do you guys think?
I'll hop over to your board if you don't mind. The Bears are in a unique position because they are not QB needy and so many teams right behind them are. Trading down to 4,7, or lower wouldn't alter their ability to get good players and get more picks. They do have lots of needs so a trade down could be great, if there's takers. I think the Texans stay put.
The logical choice does seem to be the Colts but I could see the Raiders getting dumb and overpaying for their guy.
Convincing the Texans they need to swap so they don’t lose out on their passer, then trading down again from the 2 into the 4 or 7 spot would yield a massive haul, and make my draft junky mind overdose…
I agree the Texans stay put, they are a lot more than a QB away and can't really afford to be giving up picks, even if it's for their passer. There will be one at 2. The best case scenario after that is a bidding war. The colts trade you propose makes sense Dline, but that means say the Raiders, Falcons, Panthers, all could try to outbid them with even more picks, an RG3 type situation. It really depends on how hot these teams are for him. Carolina I would think especially since they have been aggressively getting cast offs and such. And the Raiders with benching Carr. But some teams might also hold on to picks and hope for a 49ers situation where a later round QB turns out. I don't know, but I'm looking forward to it. It's got to be a trade at this point. How good it is will depend on how many teams bid, and how good Poles is at making teams at least *think* there's a bidding war going on, like has been done to our GMs countless times.
Good list blang. I wouldn't eliminate the Seahawks at #5. They may not be a front runner but there's more than enough there for them to be on the list at this point. Geno Smith has semi-quietly gone off the boil. That early to mid-season spell when he was stringing together 100+ QBR games is a distant memory. The last 5 games he has one 91+ QBR. The team's started losing games and he's started throwing more picks. He should've had 3 against the Rams yesterday. This playoff game feels important for Geno. A good game prob gets management off QB this offseason, but a bad game and a playoff exit and the recent games is all they're gonna be thinking about. The game in question will be on the road to a team on a 10game win streak with the best D in the league..... With two 1st rounders the Seahawks also have the firepower to make a move if they want to and are a team who could fairly say when are we gonna be picking top5 again? I don't write the Texans off so quickly. They will be fuming right now, but they've got 3 long months to get over week 18 and fall in love with a name, probably Bryce Young imo. The Colts are close enough to leap the Texans and Ballard's seat is hot enough for him to take a big swing and damn future if it goes wrong a la Ryan Pace. Its gonna get crazy. Teams are gonna go to pro days, go to the underwear olympics, interview guys and talk themselves into must haves. It happens every year, i would be utterly shocked if it didn't again this year. Really the only way Poles fucks this up is if he makes a pick at #1. I actually think there is a legit shot at two trade downs which, yes you still have to hit on the picks, but it could be transformative. If nothing else it aint gonna take 6years to work out if Poles is a dud or not. I've got Brady going to the Raiders and Carr going to the Jets FWIW.
I can't see how we would be able to convince them of that given that everyone leaguewide seems to assume we're sticking with Fields. But otherwise yeah that's pretty much a dream scenario. Edit: Goes to Vvarder/Ev's point about Poles playing teams off one another, so yeah it could be possible. This is probably one of the most exciting offseasons of my life. Or at least it should be. Yeah I was thinking that too but was waiting to see how Geno does this weekend. Didn't the Seahawks trade multiple first round picks for Jamal Adams? If they did that for a safety, then yeah you might be right about their willingness to unload for a QB.
I am nervous that a guy who traded the first pick in the second round for Chase Claypool won't know value even if it bites him on the ass. But I guess we'll see. The goal should be to trade down far enough to still take the first player on your board at either LT or DL, while picking up extra picks this year and next year. The more first and second rounders, the better. To me, that means you're still trying to trade back within the top 10. However, the last time a team traded up for the top overall pick, it was the Rams coming calling from the 16th spot, so I guess we'll see who offers what.
I think the play here is to appeal to them the same way that the 49'ers appealed to Ryan Pace in the Trubisky trade - convince them that someone else is going to jump them for their guy, and that moving up even one spot is worth it to guarantee that you get your man. I guess my only problem with that is that there's the potential for the Texans to take the only guy that teams are willing to trade up for. For example, if Stroud is the guy and Young / Levis look a step behind, teams might be willing to wait on either of those guys to fall a few spots. Rather than paying the Bears a premium, for example, trading up to the three spot, or the five spot, etc. In that scenario, you might've picked up a second round pick (just as an example) to move back one spot, but then aren't able to get anyone to bite on trading up again. That feels like the wrong move. So, Poles is going to have to be smart here. Not only does it matter what the trade package you get in return is, but you've gotta know (as much as one can) which team wants which player if you're hoping to pull off multiple trade downs. Let's just hope that other teams have a Ryan Pace running their draft rooms, this year.
Yeah, this is def gonna be the most film i ever watch pre draft. I mean i still half expect it to get completely bungled cos Bears, but right now its pretty exciting. @patg006 what was that college film site you recommended to us all a few years ago?
That and also i have concerns about Poles' ability to judge WR talent. He needs to add at least 1 more legit WR this offseason and it needs to be a hit.
Lot of points already hit on. Colt's I'd feel most comfortable with, just because I want my guy Skoronski and think by 7 or 8 he's gone. But you also have to consider compensation, the other side of the coin. From 4 to 1, Ballard may be on the hotseat and willing to mortgage a future he may not even see, he's probably not giving you three 1sts. Carolina might, but I expect them to use some of the capital they got for Christian McCaffery and two 1sts. Teams in the teens probably get you three 1sts. What does Poles want now/in the next 2-3 years? tbd I expect the bears to get comp picks for Allen Robinson and James Daniels; botching the Ogunjobi deal may have not been so bad after all as he would have offset that formula. Sometimes dumb luck One thing to keep an eye on is Ian Cunningham getting GM interviews. He's probably just the token diversity candidate, but if someone likes him enough and makes him GM--the bears get draft picks if I'm not mistaken. Pretty sure we learned this past year when you hire the diversity candidate, the team he got hired away from got two 3rds. As for Houston, if they truly love Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, they'll try to trade up to 1. If they think he changes the franchise--they will. Houston is also a stupid football team and organization, and I don't really follow them all that much. Where the fuck is Deuce when you need him? The commanders have a lot of money invested in their defensive line, and have Chase Young to drop big money on for years 4 and 5 of that rookie deal before his big deal. They paid big bucks to Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat. All the same teams find ways to not let really good young players walk/find ways to pay them, but if they let Da'Ron Payne go--pay the ever-loving shit out of him. As far as WR, the bears can afford to overpay for Tyler Boyd or Darius Slayton if they must/if Cincinnati/NY let them go. I get neither really 'wow' anybody, but that's the market for the position. TBD on who's on the trade market/available to speculate. Monty said he wanted to stay. I honestly would like him back. Please for the love of god don't overpay for Saquon Barkley if the Giants let him walk. I'd start talking extension with Jaylon Johnson and/or Mooney/Kmet. Those guys and Claypool are all FA in a year.
Quoting myself here but I just realized blang made the first post, not dline. I shouldn't drink so early on a weekday. Someone (I'm guessing Blang, but I was just wrong with who the OP of the fucking thread even was so who knows) said this offseason will tell us everything about Poles, or something along those lines. He has a massive chance to start righting the ship after he lit it on fire. We should see a vastly improved team next year, or else. I'm not talking playoffs, but middle of the pack should be attainable. I am worried about this too, because Miami forfeited their pick (ironically for tanking) the Bears and now Steelers pick is actually 32, which would be the last pick in the first round any other year. A legitimate 1st rounder for claypool, he certainly hasn't shown that much yet. Could be worse though, our team are the dumbasses that picked Kevin White #7 overall. I've seen him go anywhere from 4th to 12th in mock drafts on various sites, but then again, a lot of those sites aren't mocking a Bears trade even back when they had the #2, and instead were dead set on Carter or Anderson. Hell CBS right now has a mock with Carter taken #1 overall! Given your opinions on him I was blown away by that. And listening to some of the talking heads, they all say, "yeah, he had a down year this year, but last year he was awesome when there was talent everywhere".....shouldn't teams be concerned about that? It's not like he'd be coming to the Eagles D-line or anything - ours sucks. Many of the trade down scenarios put us in position to grab more picks and then Skoronski, but who knows who actually ends up calling. Maybe some Poles can pull off some record setting number of picks. I think the whole league is well aware the bidding can and should be open.
I worried that the Bears might lose some leverage with the other teams to do that if the Bears don't show interest in a QB. Poles should show an active interest in a QB otherwise teams will save capital and move right in behind the Bears.
That site is gone. The guy who ran it got a real NFL scout job and now paywalls everything then releases it after the draft. Other guys who made the site with him just have this spreadsheet-format for college game tape of guys: Click the blue googledocs hyperlink. (navigation on the bottom by position)
Nope. Started 12 games at C in 20, 12 at LT in 21, and 12 at LT this year. I’m fully aware he does not meet the historical precedent of ‘preinjured’ the bears prefer for 1st round left tackles.
I have a feeling that Poles has a greater preference towards physical traits / ceiling than you might like. I could totally see him taking a Paris Campbell instead of Skoronski just based on that. I don't know for sure, but looking at how he's selected players so far, the "athletic profile" has seemed the priority in most cases.
Bah, thats unfortunate. Will look elsewhere. Did you happen to see that vid dline was talking about re the Bears approach to evaluating prospects? Think i linked the video. Apparently, the 2nd most important thing in an OT, according to Poles' staff, is length. Out of everything you could assign importance to, they value that. Think you may have to let Peter go buddy. Not that i agree with that approach, you posted about things like arm length previously inc examples and i agreed with everything you said. Doesn't look like the Beras would tho. Totally agree. They seem to place a huge importance on physical/athletic profile, ultimately at the expense of pure football traits. Its an approach about measurables, its spreadsheet compatible and thoroughly modern. And i don't like it. Give me the football players every time.
