NEWS ALERT Browns trade Case Keenum to Buffalo for 7th rd pick... Browns Rumors: Case Keenum Traded to Bills for Pick After Deshaun Watson Trade Browns signing Jacoby Brissett to back up Watson.... Jacoby Brissett Reportedly Signs Browns Contract After Watson, Keenum Trades
It means the Browns were 2-8 against playoff teams in 2021 and one of those was Week 17 against the Bengals backups. The rest of the division was more competitive.
Browns restructure Amari Cooper deal; Clears $15M in cap space... REPORT: Browns trying to bring back Landry and Clowney.
Do you care to define, "more competitive" ? Versus 2021 playoff teams: Bengals: 4-3-0 < AFC Champion Steelers: 2-6-0 Ravens: 2-7-0 Browns: 2-8-0 Please note that the Bengals played the fewest playoff teams (7), the Browns the most (10).
OK. So deep breath......... try to consider what the Browns just did, from a business point of view, and leave out the obvious predatory sexual behavior (my perspective, barring evidence to the contrary) They brought in arguably a top 10, maybe top 5 QB, and spent 3 years of 1st rounders plus, to do it. In reality they spent their first 3 rounders getting their Franchise QB, for many years to come (again barring any further sexual incidents). OK, so on the business basis: not something to be pissed about. The first year $1million which keeps Watson pretty much protected from any financial harm, but it also leaves the Browns with room to keep acquiring talent. A point driven home by them re-negotiating with Cooper to do much the same. They then take some of that new found money and apply it towards keeping Clowney (results of that offer pending), and made it possible to stay in the free agent pool for a possible 2nd WR, maybe even Jarvis Landry, but more likely Fuller. Now they have a "good" QB who needs to find a new home. Will they get anyone to take his contract? Will he end up being released? Will he be kept on the roster as an emergency QB and traded at the trade deadline, mid season? Baker is in a tough spot, and the Browns made that worse for Baker by having him wait with the expectation he had a job, while all the QB carousel was playing out. Tough for Baker, but wise for the Browns. They traded the potential picks for Baker against the value of landing Watson (I think they won on a business basis). Now with a lame duck QB who's coming off of surgery, the market will be thin, to say the least, but Berry has already accepted that Baker won't be the golden bargaining chip, and will take what he can get or even cut him loose before he allows him back in the facility (IMO). Cold blooded, but begrudgingly smart. Can anyone argue that the Browns won't be a better team with Watson? I can't, but will they be better off.............. only time will tell if this long suffering, loyal fan base can accept the callous pursuit of winning over the tarnishing of their team's name. Some most certainly won't, others have already, but I think a large chunk of the fanbase will struggle with mixed feelings. I will be one of those.
Keenum was a poor man's Mayfield... Brissett is a poor man's Watson. Neither would I consider to be running QBs, but both are mobile. Brissett just doesn't have the same physical abilities as Watson, just as Keenu, didn't have the same physical capabilities as Mayfield. The playbook is going to change with Watson, otherwise Stefanski will be gone this time next year. Keenum would be unable to mimic the playbook that will be written, where Brissett will be able to use the same plays, just at a limited level. I get the move... For the record, we don't know what the final roster looks like yet, but with the addition of Cooper, if we they have a healthy Chubb and Hunt all year, this roster can win 6 games with a lot of backup QBs, easily.
SAS I love the avatar. Brisset - Keenum, kinda beside the point. I feel like I've been betrayed, and forced to bear the shame on Watson, by a FO that simply believes they'll pick up new fans, so screw the ones who won't come along. Do you think they'll be here through all 5 years of Watson's contract?
GREAT question! If they don't make the AFC Championship game in the year without a suspension, I think Haslem will think long and hard about their replacements. If by year 3 they haven't made the AFC Championship, they will both be gone. They may think they put themselves into the best position possible with these moves, but they have put a lot of pressure to succeed now. It may not take a Super Bowl win to save them, but at least making the Conference Championship is most likely the minimum.
I have another question to pose. Going from a dome in Texas, to an outside venue on the shores of Lake Erie... Are the Browns even getting the same QB that has been in the league from 2018-2020? Forget about the year away from football, what about his skill set and does it deteriorate in inclement weather? Has anyone done an analysis of away cold games? Let's face it, it took a historical contract to get him to come to Cleveland. What motivation does he have at this point to play up to that contract? He has already given up on one team, might it happen again when the only thing keeping him from his money is another off the field incident? That contract is completely guaranteed barring an incident. Playing badly when the temperature is below 35 degrees won't keep him from receiving checks. Throwing 4 INTs in the snow won't keep him from receiving his checks. He has been pretty adamant about wanting to continue playing in warm weather throughout his career and this process, only when the money came in did his mind change... Let's not forget, Cleveland was originally the first team eliminated...
Baker Mayfield helped change the culture of Cleveland football and I will always appreciate that. What do you think Berry will get out of him in trade compensation? I've heard 3rd round pick this year with a conditional 2023 pick based on performance, but IDK... That $19M he's owed this year could be a problem. I guess it's not a lot by starting QB standards, but just not sure how GM's will look at that.
Fair question, but I'm really not worried about that. He's a great QB. All QB's would "rather" play in good climate. Whatever the weather is on a given day, it's something both QB's have to deal with and Watson won't be disadvantaged by it any more than anyone else.
I just went through his game logs and this is his worst two games of each of his 3 starting seasons: 2020 @Cleveland November 15th (163 yards, 1 TD no INT) and @Chicago December 13th (219 yards, 1 TD no INT.. Otherwise, home/away didn't really make any difference. But of note, these were the only two cold venues on their schedule after September. 2019 His worst game of the season was @Baltimore November 17th (169 yards, 0 TD 1 INT). This wasn't the only cold team game this year though, he played just ok @Kansas City October 13th (280 yards, 1 TD 2 INT), His other "Bad game" came December 21st @Tampa (184 yards, 0 TD 1 INT). So it might not have been warm, as late in the year as it was, but it was definitely in a warm climate. He also played @Kansas City again in the playoffs January 12th and played very well (388 yards, 2 TD 0 INT) 2018 This was by far the most cold weather venues he visited: 11/04 @Denver (213 yards, 2 TD 0 INT) 11/26 @Washington (208 yards, 1 TD 2 INT) 12/15 @New York (294 yards, 2 TD 0 INT) 12/23 @Philadelphia (339 yards 2 TD 0 INT) Washington was a bit of a bust, but otherwise, he performed pretty well..
I'm still struggling with this part of the deal, too. Because... is it? They mortgaged their future potential stars (first round picks should be at least Pro Bowl players) for three years and offered the largest fully-guranteed contract in NFL history to a guy who's last action saw him take a team to a 4-12 finish in one of the worst divisions in football (that same team with a worse roster went 4-13 with a third round rookie starting most their games). Watson's had one "elite" season (2020) where he threw for a league-high 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns (6.1), 7 interceptions (1.3), 8.9 YPA, 112.4 QB rating but a QBR of 63.7). He played six games against the Titans (11-5), Colts (11-5), and Jaguars (1-15) which boasted the 29th, 20th, and 27th ranked pass defenses. While I understand you cannot control who you play, a bit of context is needed to evaluate it. Approx. 43% of his 2020 marketshare numbers came against these teams (representing only 37.5% of the schedule). Add in two massive games against the 5-11 Lions (318 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 150.4 QB rating) and the 4-11-1 Bengals (324 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 133.9 QB rating in a loss) and those numbers move to 56% of his yardage market share and a whopping 64% of his touchdown marketshare -- despite it being only 50% of his schedule. In his "elite" season, he played: BAL - 6th ranked pass defense (L) CHI - 12th ranked pass defense (L) CIN - 19th ranked pass defense (L) CLE - 22nd ranked pass defense (L) DET - 30th ranked pass defense (W) GNB - 7th ranked pass defense (L) IND (x2) - 20th ranked pass defense (L,L) JAX (x2) - 27th ranked pass defense (W,W) KAN - 14th ranked pass defense (L) MIN - 25h ranked pass defense (L) NWE - 8th ranked pass defense (W) PIT - 3rd ranked pass defense (L) TEN (x2) - 29th ranked pass defense (L,L) It should be extremely concerning that half of his elite season win totals came at the expense of the 1-15 Jacksonville Jaguars. So what's up with that New England game where he played - and beat - a Top 10 pass defense? His stat line was 344 yards (75.7 comp. %), 2 TD (5.4), 0 INT (0.0), 9.3 YPA, and a 121.9 QB rating. He wasn't sacked, was only hurried on 23.3% of his dropbacks, but got zero help from the running game. The Texans only attempted 13 rushes for 19 yards (excluding QB numbers). At the end of the day, it was just a good game - the Texans jumped out to an early 21-10 lead by the half and held on long enough to win (being outscored 10-6 in the second half). Lastly... is he a good fit in a Stefanski offense? With three seasons of offensive playcalling to work with, we can average Stefanksi's tendencies for passing - 512 a season (520, 501, and 516). Assuming that Deshaun Watson plays every game this year and has zero rust to shake off let's project his "elite" season in with Stefanski's tendencies (and league rank for 2021): Completions = 360 (13th) Attempts = 512 (17th) Comp. % = 70.2 (2nd) Yards = 4,542 (7th) Touchdowns = 31 (6.1) (10th) Interceptions = 7 (1.3) (t-4th) Yards-per-Attempt = 8.9 (t-1st) Rating = 112.1 (1st) QBR = 63.7 (5th) You know who's line that looks a lot like? Kirk Cousins: 372 of 561 (66.3%), 4,221 yards, 33 TD (5.9), 7 INT (1.2), 103.1 QB rating But here's where I'm still hung up... he's played in the soft AFC South. Not the AFC North. In fact, guess which division he's posted his worst records in? The AFC North (3-5) and the NFC North (1-3). So what if we took that "elite" season, swapped his sorry AFC South for the AFC North? Thankfully, he played that very division the same season in which he had his best numbers ever, so it's a 1:1 comparison. That stat line drops. Taking his averages against his rival AFCS teams and reducing that to one game a piece and doing the same for AFCN and doubling it, you get: 367 of 526 (69.7%), 4,498 yards (8.5 YPA), 30 TD (5.7), 7 INT (1.3), 109.3 QB rating Not bad, I guess. Now drop those in a Stefanski offense... 357 of 512 (69.7%), 4,378 yards (8.6 YPA), 29 TD (5.7), 7 INT (1.3), 108.8 QB rating. That's Kirk Freakin' Cousins!!
How about just outside of a dome (or retractable roof)? Outdoors: 11-11 as a starter. 67.0% comp., 5,450 yards (247.7 YPG), 36 TD (5.3), 17 INT (2.5), 99.0 QB rating Indoors: 17-15 as a starter. 68.4% comp., 9,089 yards (284.0 YPG), 68 TD (6.3), 19 INT (1.8), 108.0 QB rating Late seasons games: 4-4 as a starter. 69.8% comp., 1,848 yards (231.0 YPG), 11 TD (4.7), 5 INT (2.2), 100.3 QB rating Using NextGen Stats for passing, DW has historically had an expected completion percentage of 65.6%, which is a 2.3% drop in his career average. He's also had above-average receivers (at least in terms of reliability) thoughout the duration of his career. His career drop rate for receviers is 3.5%. Tom Brady's over the same period of time is 5.0%. Patrick Mahomes - 5.1%. Baker Mayfield - 5.5%. His closest comp, Kirk Cousins', is 5.1%. So let's assume he regresses more towards the mean. If he ends up at an even 5.0% with the Browns, that would push the expected completion percentage to 64.4%. Unfortunately, I can't find those NextGen Stats with the indoor/outdoor split, but it would move the outdoors line to 65.9%, which using the same 2.3% calculated above would put the ECP at 63.3%. So realistically, he should land between 63.3% and 65.9% in Cleveland. FWIW... Kirk Cousins completes 65.5% of his passes outdoors.
I can appreciate stat comps as much as anyone, but Watson's game in no way shape or form reminds me of Cousins. Also, Watson has never had as much talent around him as what he will have here in Cleveland. He's much more mobile than Baker, and it's exciting to think about what he could do with our running game. The play actions, bootlegs, waggles and creativity off busted plays should all be much improved. Once the smoke clears this should be a lot of fun. Best case scenario, I know it sounds weird but we are going to get blasted for this move obviously by many outlets, and it's not going away any time soon. In a way, I can see months of the media blasts actually galvanizing the entire team, and come fall, the Browns will be playing with an edge because of it.
Cleveland "won" the sweepstakes because they were the only team willing to guarantee a Year 4 and Year 5 in the contract in addition to the super-shady base salary trick in 2022 to protect his overall earnings from suspension. Let's no pretend he's here for the tradition, the city, the roster, etc. He's here for the $$$.
Yeah, I wonder how the NFL's going to look at such an obvious attempt to circumvent the punishment system? Probably not very fondly.
