Current top 15 Malik Willis, Liberty Matt Corral, Ole Miss Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Sam Howell, North Carolina Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati Logan Bonner, Utah State Carson Strong, Nevada Jack Coan, Notre Dame Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky Aqeel Glass, Alabama A&M Brock Purdy, Iowa State Chris Oladokun, South Dakota State Kaleb Eleby, Western Michigan Chase Garbers, California Anthony Brown, Oregon These 3 will be re-listed as offensive weapons: Dorian Thompson-Robertson, UCLA D'Eriq King, Miami Levi Lewis, Louisiana
After #7 there is potential for a lot more movement as we get closer to the draft. In reality, only Willis is likely to get a score that would make him value out as a potential top 16 pick. I like Corral just a touch better than Pickett, Howell and Ridder at this point. Bonner is my biggest surprise so far. He possesses a very natural arm/throwing motion. Strong is trending down, Eleby is trending up and I think Aqeel Glass will be higher on some boards because of the raw amount of talent to work with. It's an interesting class but my confidence in more than one or two of these players having a real chance at becoming a franchise passer is really slim.
Glad you have Howell at #4. I like him, but for me I think he’s this year’s “I actually have no idea” guy. What I mean by that is he joins a list of previous guys like Patrick Mahomes and Johnny Manziel where I knew there were traits to like. But after a decent amount of study I just couldn’t envision what type of offense they would best be suited to. I’m trying to adapt, but for example with Mahomes I think my issue is still being caught up in an older way of thinking where I want to see the traditional sitting in the pocket, making pre-snap adjustments, going through progressions, etc. He was so backyard ball that despite the talent I just wasn’t sure of the fit. So I liked him, but I’ll never claim I was confident drafting him inside the top-16. It’s why I struggle to make confident projections for a guy like Manziel or Mahomes and tend to value a guy like Pickett probably higher than some others. I am trying to get with the times, but it’s not a finished product. Like those previous guys, I know Howell has talent to work with. But he took off running too often, made the odd bad decision, and I’m just unsure what his ideal fit is. If a guy like Sean Payton had stuck around it would be easier to say “Yes, I like it.” But too many coaches don’t know how to maximize talents. Yet the league is not-so-slowly evolving to be more willing to tailor an offense (Newton, Lamar, Taysom Hill). Alright Tim, here comes the criticism lol. Brock Purdy has had more than enough time, and it looks worse every time I see it. Just strip him off there entirely. I already chatted with you a bit about Corral. He’s possibly the most divisive QB prospect in this class right now. Seen lots of top-16 projections. Also a growing group of online draft nicks who see more of a 2-3 round project than franchise talent, myself included. I think he’s a one-read, take off and run kind of guy. Now his running and his leadership are excellent. That’s what I like. His accuracy, decisions, ability to process from the pocket, more of a work in progress IMO. I made the comparison between his offense and the way Washington protected RGIII in his rookie season. I thought he missed a few deep throws and got a lot of his production on PA digs and under routes where receivers were very open. He’ll be one to watch at the combine. Want to check his footwork and accuracy on some deeper stuff. For the record I’m souring a bit on Strong myself. Kinda liked him early, but the knee issues and Senior bowl has me being a bit more critical.
King went to Miami, not UF. I'm sure it won't matter - I know he's not the next star QB - but just figured I'd mention it. Go 'Canes... in, like, another 4-7 years.
I'm really curious to see how this class scores out for you compared to some of the recent classes we have seen. I haven't watched anyone except Daniel Jones 2.0, excuse me I mean Desmond Ridder, so I don't really have a strong opinion on them yet. But I am so tired of everyone complaining about this being a bad QB class already lol.
It’s definitely not a bad class but there are no top end talents like what we’ve seen in each of the last 5-6 drafts. It seems like everyone has their own favorite.
The problem with this statement is that top end talents are the only ones that succeed 95% of the time in the NFL(and not all of top end talents succeed).. So, in reality, wouldn't that make this a bad class?
There still going to be 4 or 5 possible QB picks in the first round based on demand, so in my opinion, they must be pretty good, i would think. Finding 'that' guy is key though... depends on transition to the pros and the system involved. Bottom line - I think the top 5 QB's look alright to me.
Right now, it looks like Malik and Corral are going to separate themselves a bit from the rest of the class when the scoring is finalized, but I think there is going to be a cap on both of these guys that keeps them out of what would be considered the top tier historically. Pickett looks like his score is going to fall into the group that would include Tua, Trubisky, Mayfield, Winston and Wentz (in that order). If I had to guess which way his score might trend, it would be up. Ridder's trending towards an area that would include Freeman, Bortles and Lamar Jackson. Howell, Bonner and Strong are all with the kind of score that makes it difficult to project where they might end up, but when I get into giving marks for decision making - Bonner likely trends down while Howell and Strong trend up. Overall, I have a feeling that 'ball placement' is going to be a huge component in changing how some of this aligns. We already know the players with proper arm strength and target accuracy, but anticipation accuracy, ball placement and touch to arc are probably going to be all over the map. As far as whether or not this is a bad class - I guess that will all be in the eye of the beholder. I know this much. It won't be the worst class historically for this site, so Geno and EJ will get to hang onto that mantle for a while longer...
This might be one of those seasons where a couple names end up going in the first and we look back on it like WTF?
Definitely possible. Personally I would not be shocked if the first round ends up with only 3 Quarterbacks. I’m just not buying that these guys are actual 1st round talents. I mean Lamar went 32, correct? I’ve never been his biggest supporter, but him as a prospect vs this year’s crop? I would argue in that scenario Lamar is, at worst, the second best prospect in that group. If that is accurate I can’t see five different teams saying “Yeah this guy is worth it in the first round.” Over the OLs, CBs, Edge guys they could take instead. Also all premium positions.
That's where my mocks that I have thrown together have come around to on average. I've done 5 outlines and only one has had 4, one has had two and all of the others have had 3 passers selected. I'm always reminded of 2011 when I start thinking about the potential for some names to skip into the first that makes the class look different in hindsight. Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder all went in the first round of that draft, so seeing Willis, Pickett, Corral, Howell and Ridder all go would not be out of the realm of possibility. The logic is sound, but it also has to step away from the difference in circumstances that we see every season. The makeup of the entire league changes pretty quickly these days, so teams that get desperate to jump into relevance ofter do questionable things. Right now, I think only Carolina is an absolute lock to take a passer. There's simply no other way Matt Rhule can justify being retained beyond 2022 (this strategy will be now known as the 'Pace Nagy') unless they put together a trade for an arm. Beyond the Panthers, every other team that could pull the trigger on a passer could just as easily go in another direction. That's why I think someone will make the decision to go up after Malik Willis if Carolina goes in another direction, and I think it's a possibility that they may skip some of the higher names and go after Ridder. That exact scenario would put Pickett, Corral and Willis in play for someone to make a move on. If the Panthers do go with Pickett or Willis, then it will calm down the trade market for teams to move up, IMO. I'm settling in more and more on the idea that the Eagles should use a pair of those first round picks to move up for Willis if he goes past the Panthers. They may have to get ahead of the Broncos, which means Atlanta would be the most likely trade partner. The foundation the Eagles have built for Jalen Hurts would transfer well to Malik, and his upside as a passer would have him taking over as the starter in year 2. I think it's one of the smarter moves that could happen on draft day. The list of teams to watch out for if Pickett, Willis or Corral are still available in the first past the Panthers - Atlanta Denver Washington Minnesota Cleveland Philadelphia New Orleans Pittsburgh Tennessee Tampa Bay Detroit (their late first) Of those teams, 3 to 6 are likely going to come off the market after free agency (Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota/Teddy Bridgewater/Carson Wentz). That leaves roughly 7 to 4 teams that will at least consider taking a passer if he's available at their spot.
Do you guy's see the Pittsburgh Steelers as the most likely/desperate to trade up for a viable QB in this draft even if the Panthers go with the top-rated QB on the market? It seems to me that the Steelers really need to view the QB situation as a top priority. Im still, and just an opinion/hunch, seeing the Steelers make some noise... because if they dont trade up early it will be slim pickens. ______ ________________ Whats cool about this draft is the wildcard of FA QB's, or soon to be, out there, mixed in with the prospects. Throw in some stout WR's and solid D and offensive lineman being available, via the draft and all hell could break loose in this up-coming 1st round... Im hoping so any way. ______ ________________ I also see the Vikings as being an early player, pending on what they think of Cousins future. Im not sold on Mond and I dont think they are either. Cleveland is another to keep an eye on... and Im wondering if the Packers are all in on Love? Im psyched. Lets get this going!
I believe the Steelers are more likely to roll with Rudolph, unless they can land someone like Trubisky for a very team friendly contract. Pittsburgh's cap situation lends towards needing some reconfiguration over the next 2 seasons where they can make a decision at quarterback while locking up talent for the long haul. The Steelers will have the chance to reset the account books post-Roethlisberger and Mason will either play himself into a 3 to 5 year deal that remains team friendly throughout or find himself on the free agent market in 2023, in which case the Steelers are either signing a free agent veteran or drafting a rookie for that same season.
The Vikings decision on Cousins may hinge on Cleveland and Carolina. They would probably be the two most likely teams to make a play for Kirk, IMO. As for the Packers - I think the only way they go into next year with Love as the starter is if Aaron retires and they cannot land a FA vet to take the reins.
Tennessee will not pick up a starting QB talent, had a chance at Rodgers from what I heard from "friend/source" in Nashville, and said they wouldn't pay the price and risk a future opportunity at plug and play free agent QB. Tannehill is safe but wouldn't put them out of the running for Andy Dalton or even bringing Mariota back as a back up option if Tannehill goes down.
