Obviously it is a simulator, but I have been running these since yesterday. I have run probably 30-35 and have only had ONE come up where a 2023 first round pick was offered in the deal. That one had Washington offering #42, #73 and 2023 1st rounder. I did end up getting #42 Nicholas Petit-Frere OT and #44 Trey McBride TE Colorado State, but I stopped after those picks because of this sim eating up so many WRs. There was no one worth looking at at #42 or obviously at #44. When it got to the next pick at #73 it was depressing how the draft was going. I guess my point is, the Browns need to either take a stand and get everything they can to HELP this offense in 2022, or you might as well tank for 2023. #13 is an EXTREMELY valuable asset if your top need is a WR, because there are many available to help your team. Moving out of the top 20 means giving up, in almost every sim, 3 more WR prospects. Moving below about #25 means you will miss out on the top prospects altogether. So the decision needs to be made on priority of WR need. If it is the top two in priority, you need to stay at #13 and take the guy if he has been evaluated as one of your top prospects. They may not have enough highly ranked prospects to have one available at #13, that is another discussion to have. You still don't want to over draft out of need, that isn't what I am talking about here. This is going to be a very interesting subject over the next couple of weeks.
Honest question. You know a lot more about this stuff than I do. If he's on the final year of his deal, how could they spread the $16M into two years at $8M?
This is where our opinions differ quite a bit. I don't think he'd get anywhere close to that much on the open market. If the Browns cut Landry, I agree he could get another multi year deal, but I think more in the neighborhood of 3yr/$18M with about $10M guaranteed, at the most.... It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I think we're going to find out what his value is.
They can restructure his deal at any time and spread the costs of doing so over anywhere from 2-5 years. Landry is due a $14.3 million base salary and $530,000 roster bonus. That is elligible for restructure. Basically everything but the gurantees -- unless specified -- is able to be restructured. In Landry's case, his signing bonus is guaranteed, so the $1.5 mill has to stay: Browns could convert $14.8 million into a $14 million signing bonus with a $800,000 base salary for 2022. Landry gets his cash up front and Cleveland can assume the liability over the coming seasons. Easiest would be to split 2022 and 2023 with $7.4 million cap hits.
Definitely not... as @IrishDawg42 said, he'll take less money to sign on with a Super Bowl favorite. Odell signed a $1.25 million 1-year deal with $3 million in incentives. I thought I read somewhere that he actually wanted it paid in Bitcoin? So it's worth 1/2 of that now...
Yeah, I think they also have to hedge in free agency. Either you work it out with Landry on an extension, or you sign a guy off the market. Will also be interesting to see how the front office values wide receivers. To date, the answer has been: very low priority.
That part I agree with... This part not so much; If he is cut, he will get his $16M this year somewhere else from a team in need
Yeah he did okay financially. I read where he got paid over $4M from the Rams, and over $15M from Cleveland last year. Not a bad wage if you can get it.
@TopDawg beat me to the punch, OBJ was able to take a "paycut" because the Browns had already paid his 2021 money to him, without him having to play. This "paycut" was actually a raise to what he was scheduled to earn in 2021. We are going to agree to disagree here TD. Landry's reputation far exceeds his 2021 output. Teams won't evaluate his value on that production. His body of work is much better and he doesn't have a history of injuries. The contract you are describing is in the neighborhood of Sammy Watkins and/or 34 year old AJ Green who has definitely lost all of his stuff by now.
Completely forgot that part -- that's the rumored reason why the Browns denied the trade request in the offseason since his salary had already become guaranteed.
Fair enough. Nothing wrong with that. Like I said, I think we will find out his open market value soon enough.... And if he signs a bargain deal chasing the ring, we'll know... It would be great to keep him on board with some creative whatever with the contract, but I'm feeling pretty certain that JL will be a "cap casualty".
We'll see. I actually think the contract I was describing was pushing it toward the high end of what Landry might be able to get.
FWIW... the Spotrac salary tool (which historically runs below the actual contracts) has the follow wide recievers in Landry's age group estimated: They don't have an estimate for Landry, but if guys like Crowder and Cooks are going between $12 - $16 a year, I think it's reasonable to put Landry there on an open market. A team in need of a receiver would pay on the higher end of that range whereas a team looking to compete for a championship would be on the lower end.
Though I agree with the logic, we're talkin about the Jets and Texans here. FWIW both GM's that signed those free agents are no longer employed. I think you could just as easily point to the TY Hilton contract and say that is a closer estimation of what he will get, which is right about where I put it. So we'll see. Maybe you guys are right. Maybe Cleveland keeps him and pays him all of it. I really doubt it, but if he winds up getting paid in the $15M per year neighborhood, I'll be the first to admit that I had his value underestimated.
@SAS , @TopDawg IMHO, I think both of you are undervaluing Jarvis Landry. It appears that you're focusing on the on-field stats which is fine but, I don't think your evaluations include what he does in the team cafeteria, weight room, WR room, locker room, or (more importantly) what he doesn't do on social media or with the local click baiters. If anything, what this WR group needs most of all is rock solid, credible leader. If you look that up on Goggle, you'll find a picture of Jarvis Landry.
For the record, that TY Hilton # came on his 1 year 32 year old contract, his 29, 30 and 31 year old years he made $13M(4 years ago), $15M(3 years ago) and $14.5M(2 years ago) respectively. With inflation, you don't think Jarvis is comparable to a 29 year old TY with inflation?
So I FINALLY got a sim to run somewhat in our favor on a trade down: Tennessee traded #26, #90, 2023 2nd round pick and 2023 3rd round pick to Cleveland for #13 and #155. Tennessee took : #13 Garrett Wilson, #155 Dohnovan West Browns draft: #26 Drake London WR USC #44 Nocholis Petit-Frere OT OSU #78 John Metchie III WR Alabama #90 Brian Asamoah II LB OU #98 Jeremy Ruckert TE OSU #106 Mykael Wright CB Oregon #117 John Ridgeway DT Arkansas #192 Jake Camarda P Georgia #221 Cade York K LSU 2023 2nd round pick 2023 3rd round pick This is by far the best I have done trading down, out of probably 60-70 sims(maybe more). At the end of the day, I haven't had a receiver the caliber of London available at #26 in 90% of the sims...I also have ony had Petit-Frere make it to #44 about 5 times, most are between 28-33 picks. Then.. I'm not sure a 2nd and 3rd round pick will get you to where you need to be for a QB in the 2023 draft since that is the big reason for trading down in the first place. If I were guaranteed these results, I would whole-heartily do this.. But I think it is a pipe dream. Of course in this case you would have had to sign Clowney to a new contract.
I agree with this 100%...I just don't think there's any way in hell the Browns or anyone else are going to pay him $16M this year. Unfortunately it's business...
I'm not trying to stir anything or get in a huff over this...You know my take. We'll see. As I mentioned, if wrong I'll own it.
