I think he is simply speaking in 'manager speak'. lol Berry is a smart guy that I think is going to be successful in Cleveland no matter how things shake out in 2022. So long as the Haslam's stay the course and let him build up the roster, the Browns should be competitive more often than not in the AFC North.
I'm not picking on you here Lym, so please don't be offended. This offense is not geared towards making household names out of their players in the passing game. The Browns threw to 11 different receivers who played in 10 games or more (this doesn't include Hunt who only played in 8 games), the highest percentage of targets went to Jarvis Landry at 17%, the next closest was Austin Hooper 12%, DPJ 12%, Njoku 11%, then Higgins at 9.4% To put that into perspective: The Bills had 13 players that qualified for the 10 games or more, but had Stefon Diggs at 29% of the targets, Cole Beasley had 18% of the targets and Gabriel Davis had 11% of the targets, next closest was John Brown at 9%. Their top two targets had more than our #1 receiver. The Rams had 11 players that qualified for the 10 games or more, but had Cooper Cupp at 32% of the targets, Van Jefferson at 15% of the targets, Tyler Higbee at 14% of the targets, Robert Woods at 11.5%. Both of these offenses had an enormous number of passes, Rams 602 and Bills 597 compared to the Browns at 499. It isn't because of Baker's "lost season" they only passed 467 times in 2020. In Stefanski's system, the Vikings passed 442 times with Kirk Cousins in 2019 when Stefanski took over as coordinator, who had signed a huge contract 2 years earlier. To put this in perspective, the Vikings passed 592(2018) the year before Stefanski and 516 (2020, Kubiak took over and tried to run Stefanski's offense), then went back to a traditional offense this past season throwing 578 times this past season. Stefanski does not believe in throwing the ball as a weapon, it is half the tool of producing offense. Evenly spreading out run vs pass, no lopsided attempts. So, NO QB is going to become a fantasy stud while playing for Stefanski. Nor can you state clearly whether or not Baker Mayfield could or could not play in another system. In 2019 he had Todd Monken and they threw 520 times, his rookie season he had (2) coordinators and threw 557 times, with Baker only playing in 14 of the 16 games, 13 as starter. Giving Baker the same coaching staff, I have faith he will continue to grow and a healthy Baker, I expect him to expand on what he started in 2020.
If you want to talk free agents, just look at the one's in house. Garrett loves it here, Chubb loves it here, Hunt loves it here, all the offensive linemen love it here. I think the true measurement will not be by the OBJ situation, but whether the Browns can re-sign someone like Clowney who floats to a new team at every contract signing. That will be a much bigger indicator of free agent recruitment possibilities. I don't think one guy who basically forced his way out via his dad will play as big of a role. We have some good people talking up the city and organization in house. Really, it depends more on how Jarvis feels about Baker than anything. When Jarvis talks, people listen. Will the Browns be able to restructure Jarvis and have him stay in Cleveland? If not, what does he say as he departs? That is what we need to listen for. If Jarvis leaves, they WILL sign at least one, more likely two veteran receivers in free agency. Just not in that top tier group. With a healthy Landry and a new restructured contract, the Browns wouldn't be in bad shape in the WR room as long as they draft one in the first two rounds. I agree, which is why they will need a veteran presence. You also need to remember, Donovan Peoples-Jones will be entering his third year and he is coming off a season where he was #2 in targets, led the team in yardage and was #2 on the team in receiving TDs. If this is his breakout year, then we need another one like him from the first two rounds of the draft to make this offense work well. If DPJ can up his stats to somewhere in the 800-900 yardage and 6-7 TD range, he will be a really good WR in this offensive scheme. I agree, the 2022 season is make it or break it for a lot of careers and for the franchise as a whole. If they fail, Stefanski and all his coaches will be gone. Baker will be gone and the immediate future will be another 3rd or 4th place finish in the AFC North, with a whole new offensive system starting over. That means at least 1-2 years of right around .500 football. I think the 2020 season is the floor with a healthy Baker Mayfield. If that happens and they win another playoff game in 2022, then everyone is safe and Baker will get his maximum contract. That may also be bad for the organization in the long run. IF Stefanski is going to be here for the next 4-8 years, then we don't need a superstar QB making $40M per year either. That will take valuable assets away from every other position group that relies on working efficiently in Stefanski's schemes. I don't think you enter the draft with Baker's future in mind at all. If I know Andrew Berry, he is going to go into this draft to add the player he feels will benefit the team overall. I am sure he is doing that with Kevin Stefanski's systems in mind, but not so much Baker Mayfield. The biggest question is whether Baker Mayfield can exist in a system that doesn't make him the center of the offense. If the answer is no, then he will try to have a great season in 2022, but no matter the outcome, he will be looking to another team, much like Kirk Cousins did. If the Browns want him to stay at that point, they will use the franchise tag on him, just like Washington did. This is a business. Trying to figure out what will happen in 2023 is fun, but there really isn't anything to build a valid argument around. For me and the draft it comes down to what is available at #13. I want to win in 2022, for me that means we need to sign some key current Browns free agents, add some depth in outside free agency and make sure we get a competant offensive tackle and wide receiver in the draft. If one of the top tackles get pushed to them at #13, I would actually prefer they take him at that pick. If he is a sure fire left tackle, then we move Jedrick Wills to the right side where he excelled in college. If we wait until the second round, we get the best right tackle available. If all the top tackles are gone, then the top receiver is my preferred choice, as I have them highly rated in this class. If we get a tackle at #13, then I would still like to get that receiver in the second round. In the end, Berry will draft the highest rated talent on the board that works within the schemes that Stefanski and his coaches use.
If you want to talk free agents, just look at the one's in house. Garrett loves it here, Chubb loves it here, Hunt loves it here, all the offensive linemen love it here. I think the true measurement will not be by the OBJ situation, but whether the Browns can re-sign someone like Clowney who floats to a new team at every contract signing. That will be a much bigger indicator of free agent recruitment possibilities. I don't think one guy who basically forced his way out via his dad will play as big of a role. We have some good people talking up the city and organization in house. Really, it depends more on how Jarvis feels about Baker than anything. When Jarvis talks, people listen. Will the Browns be able to restructure Jarvis and have him stay in Cleveland? If not, what does he say as he departs? That is what we need to listen for. If Jarvis leaves, they WILL sign at least one, more likely two veteran receivers in free agency. Just not in that top tier group. With a healthy Landry and a new restructured contract, the Browns wouldn't be in bad shape in the WR room as long as they draft one in the first two rounds. I agree, which is why they will need a veteran presence. You also need to remember, Donovan Peoples-Jones will be entering his third year and he is coming off a season where he was #2 in targets, led the team in yardage and was #2 on the team in receiving TDs. If this is his breakout year, then we need another one like him from the first two rounds of the draft to make this offense work well. If DPJ can up his stats to somewhere in the 800-900 yardage and 6-7 TD range, he will be a really good WR in this offensive scheme. I agree, the 2022 season is make it or break it for a lot of careers and for the franchise as a whole. If they fail, Stefanski and all his coaches will be gone. Baker will be gone and the immediate future will be another 3rd or 4th place finish in the AFC North, with a whole new offensive system starting over. That means at least 1-2 years of right around .500 football. I think the 2020 season is the floor with a healthy Baker Mayfield. If that happens and they win another playoff game in 2022, then everyone is safe and Baker will get his maximum contract. That may also be bad for the organization in the long run. IF Stefanski is going to be here for the next 4-8 years, then we don't need a superstar QB making $40M per year either. That will take valuable assets away from every other position group that relies on working efficiently in Stefanski's schemes. I don't think you enter the draft with Baker's future in mind at all. If I know Andrew Berry, he is going to go into this draft to add the player he feels will benefit the team overall. I am sure he is doing that with Kevin Stefanski's systems in mind, but not so much Baker Mayfield. The biggest question is whether Baker Mayfield can exist in a system that doesn't make him the center of the offense. If the answer is no, then he will try to have a great season in 2022, but no matter the outcome, he will be looking to another team, much like Kirk Cousins did. If the Browns want him to stay at that point, they will use the franchise tag on him, just like Washington did. This is a business. Trying to figure out what will happen in 2023 is fun, but there really isn't anything to build a valid argument around. For me and the draft it comes down to what is available at #13. I want to win in 2022, for me that means we need to sign some key current Browns free agents, add some depth in outside free agency and make sure we get a competant offensive tackle and wide receiver in the draft. If one of the top tackles get pushed to them at #13, I would actually prefer they take him at that pick. If he is a sure fire left tackle, then we move Jedrick Wills to the right side where he excelled in college. If we wait until the second round, we get the best right tackle available. If all the top tackles are gone, then the top receiver is my preferred choice, as I have them highly rated in this class. If we get a tackle at #13, then I would still like to get that receiver in the second round. In the end, Berry will draft the highest rated talent on the board that works within the schemes that Stefanski and his coaches use.
Stefanksi doesn't speak in hypotheticals, Baker isn't under contract for 2023, so he isn't going to discuss him.
That's an interesting take on it. I think there will be some hesitancy among receivers with less to prove, but I'm of the mind currently that it would be specifically to that position and possible the tight end position. Everything else doesn't feel like as tough of a sell for Cleveland. I was in on Peoples-Jones before the Browns board and I think he can by a valuable asset in the receiving group. However, they still need to sign a couple players with varying skill sets to round out the group, even if Jarvis is retained, IMO. Couple things here - I don't think Stefanski will get the hook at the end of this season unless it ends cataclysmically. Basically, this front office and coaching staff won't be tethered to the success or failure of Baker Mayfield. There has been enough done around the rest of the roster to justify keeping this staff and front office together through at least one quarterback change if Mayfield doesn't get things righted this season. The other thing would be the idea that Cleveland may need as weak of a schedule as they had in 2020 before that ceiling should be considered the floor, IMO. Well, if you are viewing it that way then you can't possibly be sold on Baker as the franchise (from Berry's eyes). If they believe he is the player to take the reins for a long term contract then doing everything possible to ensure his success would be at the top of the list. While I agree that building the team regardless of what is happening at passer should be, and typically would be, the best bet, this isn't a regular offseason situation for Cleveland. There is a lot riding on the decision to either role with Baker for the long haul or to pull the plug and change out the arm. If I can redirect this for a moment - Let's forget what you think Berry may do. If you are running things, what's your approach to handling the layered situation that is finding out what you have at quarterback, continuing the building process and fielding the best possible product in 2022? Are you putting your focus on trying to make sure that Baker succeeds in a manner that justifies the contract or are you looking to handle things in a different manner?
In 2018, Diggs and Thielen combined for 215 catches, 2400 yards and 18 TDs in this offense. *Just not realized Stefanski was only the coordinator for the last few games in 2018.
Well I hope you're just pulling my leg on this but why put all these stats up and then ignore them? Prescott better in 4 of the 5 data points + 1,167 rushing yds and 21 TDs Wilson 4 of 5 + 2,327 rushing yds and 12 TDs Jackson (49 games btw) 3 of 5 + 3,673 rushing yds and 21 rushing TDs Allen 4 of 5 - + 2,325 rushing yds and 31 rushing TDs This isn't the 80s. The ability of these guys to run is a significant factor when evaluating them against Baker. Notably missing Kirk Cousins 1,372 of 2,096 (65.9%), 16,361 yards (272.7 YPG), 109 TD (5.1%), 53 INT (2.5%), 96.9 QB rating Cousins is better than Mayfield in every one of your data points. Player 1: 16,439 yards, 134 TDs Player 2: 14,293 yards, 97 TDs These two things are not the same.
Except in Stefanski's offense. No one can grade Baker against other QBs based on the offense. He does what he is asked to do within the offense. What does everyone expect, a revolt in the huddle and refuse to run the offense as implemented? Would other QB's numbers be different in Stefanski's offense? Absolutely. Would Baker's numbers be different in someone else' scheme, I would think so, that is a hypothetical that we just can't measure. He has been with 4 different coordinators in 4 years, we don't really know Baker's potential yet. I think we got a pretty good glimpse of it to end 2020, but with the injuries derailing the 2021 season, we have no clue what his potential is, as much as some of us want to pretend we do.
I really don't see a significant difference between these two scenarios. IF . . . You're building a roster to improve Mayfield's supporting cast ie: adding a true WR1 upgrading WR2, [improving the WR room in general] upgrading the RT and/or O-line depth having three TE's that can block and catch improve the 3rd down defensive efficiency & lower the red zone/scoring stats THEN . . . Wouldn't the next (long-term) QB benefit as well? Because Stefanski is STILL going to run the ball 1st and foremost.
Here's you once again missing the *entire* point, and I'm not sure why. Baker isn't/wasn't a scrambling QB. He isn't asked to be a scrambling QB. The offense doesn't put in options for him to run downfield with the football. And running statistics do not measure how you throw a football. You want to have a discussion about team MVPs and use these metrics, I'm all for it. That's not what we're doing here. Not notably missing because he wasn't included in your orignal list. We can break out Kirk's, sure. Looks like you're using starts and not games, which is a bit misleading since reliability is going to be part of the equation here. Kirk's line: 1,315 of 1,996 (65.9%), 15,552 yards (262.3 YPG), 94 TD (4.5%), 51 INT (2.4%), 94.5 QB rating Which is once again, significantly closer than you obviously want to believe. I totally get why you don't apply any objectivity here, but the comparison of these guys' differences is statistically insignificant. Jackson and Wilson are studs... they've been to multiple Pro Bowls and Jackson won League MVP. They are the only QBs on that list with higher TD percentages. Yards-per-game is usually more a product of the offense and structure QBs are asked to work in, maybe yards-per-attempt would be a better metric (not just because Baker outclasses guys here, too) but again... some tendency and subjectivity around play-design. Ultimately, the top guy on the list (Stafford) in yards-per-game and Baker's difference is 762 yards per season (50.8 YPG). Playing on bad teams and playing from behind (Stafford, Cousins) would probably lend some junk yardage into this. No doubt Mayfield is lagging in QB rating for the same reason he's lagging in interceptions. Two years stand out here - 2019 in Freddie Kitchen's offense, and 2021 with a broken shoulder and torn labrum that greatly affected his throwing motion and movements. In those seasons, he averaged a 3.2 INT percentage (against a 3.8% TD). In the other seasons, he averaged a 2.2 INT percentage (against a 5.2% TD). Again... speaking to the inconsistency he has seen that other QBs on this list have not.
Happy Birthday, Beach! I dont know if it's actually your birthday, but just in case it actually is...
Further thought . . . IF you don't have a solution to a problem that you're going to create, then don't create the problem.
Dont you think Stefanski is actually overseeing exactly what plays to call/make based on Baker's skill set? Im not sure Baker would be able to run a wide open passing game scheme... but maybe with the right WR's he could, because obviously, good WR's are going to make him or any QB better. As of this moment, in my humble opinion, I see the offense being set as it is because of Baker's skill set... run, baby run and be average at the least when passing. If the offense were to open up, the Browns will need weapons on the receiving side of things. Great RB's and offensive line will only take you so far in todays NFL, which leads me to my main point. Can the Browns compete without a better passing attack? It seems from my observations over the last couple seasons, the game's paradigm has shifted to a full out passing attack, ie, Mahomes, Allen, Stafford, Rodgers, Brady, Cousins and the up-coming likes of Burrows and other young guns like him... a running game only gets you so far these days. Just thinking, maybe, with the Mayfield, Stefanski, run first mentality, the Browns are limiting themselves... and I just think if given the right circumstances and receivers, Bakes could implement more of an air-show (providing he cuts way down the interceptions) than he has prior in his career. PS - Injuries, 4 diff coordinators, a few bad breaks and the likes have skewed the over-all picture of Baker Mayfield's Browns, thats why next season is really a 'make or break' thing and im personally looking forward to seeing how it plays out and how its addressed this off-season and in the Draft. Good luck...
