When healthy. It's literally: Patrick Mahomes (1), Aaron Rodgers (2), Tom Brady (3), Baker Mayfield (4), and then I don't care who fills out that fifth spot... probably Josh Allen if he continues to perform at a high level without Brian Daboll (who'll eventually get a HC job) or Dak Prescott. This is as absurd a quote as you've ever had.
Stafford (first 61 games): 1,485 of 2,497 (59.5%), 17,457 yards (286.2 YPG), 109 TD (4.4%), 73 INT (2.9%), 83.1 QB rating Prescott (first 60 games): 1,273 of 1,922 (66.2%), 14,664 yards (244.4 YPG), 90 TD (4.4%), 36 INT (1.7%), 96.9 QB rating Wilson (first 60 games): 1,035 of 1,604 (64.5%), 12,947 yards (215.8 YPG), 93 TD (5.3%), 33 INT (1.9%), 100.2 QB rating Jackson (first 58 games): 853 of 1,329 (64.1%), 9,967 yards (171.8 YPG), 84 TD (6.3%), 31 INT (2.3%), 98.1 QB rating Allen (first 60 games): 1,245 of 1,999 (62.9%), 14,114 yards (231.4 YPG), 103 TD (4.8%), 46 INT (2.2%), 91.0 QB rating Incomplete: *Justin Herbert (32 games): 66.2 comp. %, 292.9 YPG, 5.4 TD%, 2.0 INT%, 97.9 QB rating Incomplete: *Kyler Murray (46 games): 66.9 comp. %, 249.6 YPG, 4.4 TD%, 2.2 INT%, 93.9 QB rating Incomplete: *Joe Burrow (26 games): 68.2 comp. %, 280.7 YPG, 5.1 TD%, 2.1 INT%, 100.2 QB rating Mayfield (first 60 games): 1,185 of 1,924 (61.6%), 14,125 yards (235.4 YPG), 92 TD (4.8%), 56 INT (2.9%), 87.8 QB rating No quarterback on that list above Mayfield had 1/5th of the instability within the franchise, even Stafford playing for bad Deroit teams, had the same key coaches in place his first four seasons. All four had the same head coach (Baker has had four in four years). No other QB had more than two different offensive coordinators (Baker has had five in four years). No other QB had more than two different position coaches (Baker has had four in four years). We can even talk about how Bake played 20% of his games with a season-ending injury (no one else on this list came close). Josh Allen looks fantastic and is a Top 5 QB... and Baker is matching him statistically. The biggest difference is Allen has enjoyed tremendous stability with 1 head coach, 1 offensive coordinator, and 2 position coaches (same one for the last 3 seasons). His progression has been linear upwards. Mayfield's has been all over as a result of the inconsistency around him and despite all that he's keeping pace. Your take is not only wrong, it's disingenuous.
I have come to the conclusion that that guy is just a parody account - there's no way it's a real human being. That level of delusion is "Stop the steal" worthy.
@SAS , @IrishDawg42 , @Lyman , @TopDawg ,@Duff_Beer_Doug ,@kenibals , @crextin , @bluez, @DvlDawg Am I forgetting anyone? What's your take on how Odell Beckham's departure followed by success in LA as it relates to the Browns courting free agent wide receivers this offseason? I had a discussion of some length about this yesterday so I'm curious to gauge the temperature of this room as compared to the vibe I was getting from another Cleveland fan. I'll wait to see what you guys think before I post the opinion I shared surrounding the topic.
I'm asking specifically about how it relates to the Browns getting free agent wide receivers to come in and play for them next season. I might have missed that back in this thread, so I'm going back through it now...
I don't think there's any doubt that the failure of OBJ in Cleveland will hurt us in trying to attract free agent WR's to come play for the Browns. Whether it's our system or QB, it doesn't really matter. OBJ's immediate success in LA does not reflect well on Cleveland. Star WR's are going to have options in free agency, so there's no way that this helps.
No WR in his right mind will go to Cleveland if another option exists. They screwed the pouch with 2 probowl WRs Landry and OBJ. WRs want their stats and they can’t get them in Cleveland. They ain’t winning any championships . So what would convince a WR to go to Cleveland?
It depends greatly on the WR in question. If you are talking top tier WR, that are looking for the $20k per season money and are on their 3rd contract, so they can be picky, then no they are not on the list of free agents for Cleveland. a) This offense will not support a top tier $20k receiver, TWO great examples are OBJ and Jarvis Landry. Both were in the top 5 paid receivers when they came to Cleveland. This offense has shown that type of receiver to be irrelevant. They will not elevate the offense as much as playcalling does. When the playcalling is spot on, 9 different receivers have gotten the ball in the passing game and the running game is close to the passing game in yardage totals. When the playcalling is not working, nothing works because of that reliance. We don't have a second choice of scheme, when Stefanski's scheme isn't working and they fall behind. This offense requires the team to get an early lead and not relinquish it by more than one score. That is why the defense is just as important. They will need to do a complete overhaul of the offense to make this question relevant b) Mid tier WRs, on their first or second contract. These are the workhorse receivers in the NFL. They have already been shunned by teams on big money contracts and realize where they fall in the grand scheme of things. They are also the players that fit this scheme the best. Do we need to sell them on the scheme? Nope, they have always been 2nd or 3rd in line without showing signs they should be a #1 receiver on another team. This offense isn't a barren wasteland, it just isn't conducive for individuals looking for individual accolades. As long as the Browns are willing to pay 2nd receiver money to this tier, $8M-$11M per year, then they will go wherever the highest bidder is. Teams looking to way over bid for players are only looking at the previous tier for players, not this group. c) Lower level spot fillers, we have this level on the team right now. DPJ is closing in on that middle tier above, but the others on the team are spot fillers that know the offense. We can employ 5-6 Wideouts that average 450-700 yards each and still have a successful passing game. There are also going to be 2-3 TEs that contribute 250-600 yards of passing offense as well as our running back room that are all efficient at catching the ball, adding another 600 yards combined in the RB room. If the WR group has a year that produces 2,500 yards over 5 players, a TE group that produces 1,300 yards over 3 players and a RB group that produces 650 yards over 4 players, we will have a total of 4,450 yards spread out over 12 players. The TE group (which everyone states is the focal point) needs to step up and do their jobs more than anyone. Last season, Njoku and Hooper combined for 820 yards, this needs to be over 1,000 yards for sure for this offense to work. A healthy Baker probably does get the numbers where they need to be for success. We have one more shot at getting this offensive system working before Baker's money kicks in for real in 2023 if they re-sign him. If they don't re-sign him, it's because the offense failed miserably and we will be looking for a New head coach that will help decide who the next QB prospect will be in Cleveland. As for wide receivers though.. Look to the draft for the next high quality prospect on this team. They will draft a wide receiver in the first two rounds. 3rd round receivers have issues, which means they won't contribute for the first couple of seasons. I expect DPJ to play a more prominent role in 2022, his 3rd season. I expect his numbers to be close to 700 yards for a successful season. He digressed this year and still was near 600 yards. Sorry, I'm sure this isn't the answer you were looking for, but frankly this offense doesn't need an OBJ or a Jarvis Landry for that matter. They need the working class receivers that just put their nose down and make 10 yard plays. They can draft a play maker that blows it over the top every now and then.
Apples to soured oranges? Tough to compare, honestly. With the exception of touchdowns, which might have more to do with Los Angeles ranking 2nd in the NFL in passing TDs versus Cleveland's 20th, his stat line per game was the same in Cleveland. In Cleveland, he didn't try - why would he? He demanded a trade or release in the offseason and wasn't granted that. He was disinterested and disgruntled. In Cleveland, he was supposed to be the "the guy". In Lon Angeles, he's at best the second-fiddle and likely WR3 when the team is at full strength. Regarding the impact on free agents, I don't see this front office going out and looking for a "premier" guy. I could be off-base there, but I think they will look to add their WR1 via the draft and bolstering the corp through free agency. My hope is we chase after a guy like Mike Williams if he's allowed to walk but that top tier of players seems unlikely to be on the radar.
The same could be said for Pittsburgh and Baltimore...or about 20 other franchises in the NFL. The receivers have to go somewhere. They are either looking for a Super Bowl ring, in which case they take less money, or they know the reality of the league and take the best contract their agent can get them. They don't hold out for more money AND teams that are odds on favorite for Super Bowls.
@Tim , Let me start by saying it assumes that the Browns are even targeting free agent Wide Receivers. I'm not so certain they should be. There is no question that Kevin Stefanski's offensive system revolves around the running game. Period. He inherited two NFL caliber running backs in Chubb and Hunt, yet Eric Berry added D. Johnson and Felton to the RB room. His offensive line excels at run blocking - not so much at pass protection. Any former lineman can attest to the fact that run blocking (while requiring different skill sets) is physically and mentality easier than pass protection as you know precisely where you are going whereas in pass protection, you are (in essence) reacting to where the pass rush is both coming from and where and how they plan to go. A quick glance at the Tight Ends and Wide Receivers offers some more clues. Why hasn't David Njoku's contract been addressed yet? It's no secret that Njoku is a better receiver than blocker. Why has Rashard Higgins (allegedly) been in the "dog house" for the past two years? Could very well be the same reason. It's also no secret that OBJ detested blocking - either in the run game or downfield. In the Rams system, he's not asked to as their system revolves around the pass game. Lastly (and here's where I get shunned), I have my doubts that the Browns have a QB that can excel in a system such as the Rams use that requires receivers like Cooper Kupp and OBJ. So, unless there's another Hines Ward type out there in free agency, I doubt the Browns will go crazy in that route.
To wit... The Top 10 receivers in 2021 were: Cooper Kupp (R3P69, original team), Justin Jefferson (R1P22, original team), Davante Adams (R2P53, original team), Ja'Marr Chase (R1P5, original team), Deebo Samuel (R2P36, original team), Tyreek Hill (R5P165, original team), Stefon Diggs (R5P146, traded to BUF), Tyler Lockett (R3P69, original team), Diontae Johnson (R3P66, original team), D.J. Moore (R1P24, original team). One of those guys is on another team and it was via trade, not free agency. Additionally, the team trading him (MIN) used the pick they received to select Justin Jefferson so... upgrade? Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are the only guys taken after early round three. Hill dropped for obvious reasons. You actually have to go all the way down to the #32 wide receiver last season to find the first guy who makes the list as a free agent (A.J. Green). Davante Adams is a blue chip free agent and will likely be a Top 10 guy again next season wherever he lands, but outside of that... not a lot of guys on the list of impending free agents I'd put good money behind and the facts bear out that going through the Draft is a teams' best bet.
This runs right along the same line of thinking that the person I was discussing this with had. No top tier, go after the mids/lows and consider taking one in the draft was his preferred approach. This is where the crux of the conversation really formed. We started off discussing a new set of mitts for Baker to throw to and it morphed into the short/long term sum of what Odell's departure, circumstances surrounding it and Cleveland's current status among its peers would do to potential free agent signings and how that impacts the Browns beyond the receiver room. Which, taken into consideration, doesn't change the outlook of free agency for some hands, but I agree that the perception and the reality of Odell's immediate success in LA may not be seated in the same room. I can see how the rest of your post is based off of this premise, and the logic in what you stated is sound. However, this is more of an open ended hypothetical on whether or not it FA will be affected by this past season and how the Browns should approach it. Now, where I moved the conversation is to how this affects Baker long term (I'll get into some preferred FA targets later on). Going on the premise that Cleveland decides NOT to go after a veteran to help in the receiving room, then Mayfield will be the biggest loser of that decision. A rookie wide receiver may not even begin to see his game translate to the next level until his second season, and historically the breakout comes in year 3. Sure, there are those players that come in and light it up in year one, but the NFL's hit rate for first round receivers over the past 10 years is roughly 40%. The Browns may not even get a chance to see how much a rookie receiver drafted this season could help Baker because Mayfield's 2022 season could be his last for Cleveland. IMO, that's the reason why the Browns should be targeting probably 3 mid to low range receivers that can fill specific voids on the roster. Get them in on short term 'prove it' deals where they have enhanced motivation to perform and let them jostle for position on the depth chart. Cleveland doesn't have the luxury of patience, IMO. There needs to be a touch of urgency for how they handle the offseason at receiver. Spend a little money, target specific skill sets and use those talents to find out whether or not you are going to pay Baker premium cash at his position. I could be wrong, but I don't think there are going to be any kind of discounts coming for the Browns when Baker's agent starts negotiating that new contract. Cleveland has to be sure that the Mayfield they are going to pay that money to is the one that answers the question for several seasons., not the one that still has a lot of question marks regarding his future. And to go back and touch on Lyman's point, the run blocking aspect should absolutely be a consideration in the type of receivers brought in. Having players that will work in Stefanski's scheme regardless of who might be taking snaps makes too much sense to ignore. It's definitely the answer I was looking for, because I'm just looking to read opinions and get a feel for where you guys are at going into this offseason. It looks (on the surface, at least) like there is a general theme and a slight consensus on where you are all coming from. --------------------------------- Now, the next question would be whether or not you guys would agree that drafting a wide receiver this season may not be the best approach for making decisions on Baker's long term future with the team? I know some of you are all in no matter what, but if you can step back from that definitive for a moment and simply look at the above question on face value I'd like to read your thoughts and everyone else's.
Kevin Stefanski does not have a large body of work as a coordinator, but he's consistent: 2019 Leading Receivers: 1. Stefon Diggs (WR): 94 targets, 63 recetions, 1,130 yards, 6 TDs 2. Dalvin Cook (RB): 63 targets, 53 receptions, 519 yards, 0 TD 3. Adam Thielen (WR): 48 targets, 30 receptions, 418 yards, 6 TDs 4. Kyle Rudolph (TE): 48 targets, 39 receptions, 367 yards, 6 TDs 5. Irv Smith Jr. (TE/HB): 47 targets, 36 receptions, 311 yards, 2 TDs 2020 Leading Receivers: 1. Jarvis Landry (WR): 101 targets, 72 receptions, 840 yards, 3 TDs 2. Austin Hooper (TE): 70 targets, 46 receptions, 435 yards, 4 TDs 3. Rashard Higgins (WR): 52 targets, 37 receptions, 599 yards, 4 TDs 4. Kareen Hunt (RB): 51 targets, 38 receptions, 304 yards, 5 TDs 5. Odell Beckham Jr. (WR): 43 receptions, 23 targets, 319 yards, 3 TDs 2021 Leading Recivers: 1. Jarvis Landry (WR): 87 targets, 52 receptions, 570 yards, 2 TDs 2. Austin Hooper (TE): 61 targets, 38 receptions, 345 yards, 3 TDs 3. Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR): 58 targets, 34 receptions, 597 yards, 3 TDs 4. David Njoku (TE): 53 targets, 36 receptions, 475 yards, 4 TDs 5. Rashard Higgins (WR): 47 targets, 24 receptions, 275 yards, 1 TD The clear difference from 2021 and other years is (1) talent level of receivers, and (2) injuries. Kareem Hunt missing significant time was a big blow to the offense. Austin Hooper is cheeks and continues to get looks because of his inflated contract numbers (#2 TE in 2021). That said, the pattern is pretty clear: WR1: 90 targets WR2: 50 targets TE1: 60 targets TE2: 40-50 targets RB1: 40-50 targets Right now, the team looks like: WR1: Jarvis Landry WR2: Donovan Peoples-Jones TE1: Austin Hooper TE2: David Njoku RB1: Kareen Hunt In 2022, the team should look like: WR1: Donovan Peoples-Jones WR2: <insert rookie draft pick here> TE1: David Njoku TE2: Harrison Bryant RB1: Kareem Hunt That alone would be a major improvement (moving away from Hooper and replacing Landry's production with a more vertical option). I love Landry and hope we keep him -- if we do, I think he needs to be WR2 on this team. He should be the compliment, not the guy. But that said, he's capable of producing WR1 numbers (in Stefanski's offense) if asked. This simply isn't a team that needs 600+ attempts from their QB and therefore, shouldn't expect to need 2-3 WR1's on the team.
I find it interesting that Andrew Berry seems real confident that Mayfield is the starter in 22, but then he falls short of referring to the future or anything beyond 22. i find that to be unusual and im tempted to read something negative into that. I guess if Baker comes out and lights it up in 22, then they talk future?
