NFL - Random Opinions

I'm at Bills vs Falcons tomorrow. Got through the wait without covid or the border closing or tightening to need a test to cross either border.

 

Enjoy buddy!

 

Scream at Josh Allen for me; “Davis is Open!!”

 

Nice. I got big interest in that game.

I need a big day from Josh Allen and D. Singletary in FFL SB....No Russell Gage though!

Enjoy.

 

Holy shit! Canada has invaded the US!


Have fun, Joe!

 

He might lose anyway…

 

Did you get enough from Singletary TD?

I noticed he got in a couple times

 

I'm in a couple league money game's, and I miss quoted that....My Bills DID come through in fine fashion but it was for the consolation 3rd place in the league. Still enough to cover expenses so I'm no complaining....Yay 3rd!

In the league I'm fighting for the title it's pretty brutal, but I have a longshot. I got Najee and Boswell, but I need 30 points....Not looking good, and even if that does happen, it will still be painful for me to watch. lol! Catch 22...

 

Booyah!!!!

 

I was up by 28 and change going into last night with just Watt going for my opponent…Watt scored 29.

 

Ouch! Those are the kind of losses you never forget

 

Been so caught up in all the Bears stuff today i nearly didn't get round to saying how pleased i am that Brandon Staley lost that game last night.

That pencil neck has been taking the piss with those 4th down calls all season. His repeated fails cost them the game against the Chiefs a few weeks ago, and then last night he took the biscuit. Going for it inside your own 20, total joke.

 

I didn’t see that particular game. But as much as I appreciate the confidence of a guy willing to believe in his guys and go for it, I’m definitely not in the camp that thinks you should just follow these supposed analytics fullbore.
Going for it inside the other teams 40 on 4th &6 or shorter I can appreciate. Or if the score calls for it with less than 20 minutes in the game, fine.

But when it’s a one score game anytime in the first half and you gamble inside your own 40 I think you’re an idiot. And deserve to lose.

There should be a little more nuance with these analytics IMO. Currently I feel like guys are either fighting against change hard, or embracing it with wildly open arms.

To change the subject slightly, in regards to fantasy football, if you were already wondering about the usefulness of including kickers on a roster, this new willingness to gamble on fourth down has added yet another element to that conversation.

 

Yep. Don't take PK's playing for Stefanski or Staley, that's for sure.

 

He turned down short FG's 3 times to go for it on 4th down and failed every time. Thats 9points in a game that went to OT. The 2nd was particularly bad cos it was at the end of the 1st half after a long 2min drive, would've given them the lead at the half and was just a crucial momentum play. It was incredibly naive and feeds into this trend of young coaches who think all they need to go in with is a i know best attitude. A smart older coach wins that game.

I'd like to talk about those analytics. Did you see the graphic they put up at the time. I've got a good memory for numbers, this is what they said:

Chances of winning before the decision 35%
Chances of winning if you go for it & make it 45%
Chances of winning it if you go for it and fail 26%
Chances of winning if you punt 35%

Now, im just gonna say this, i don't buy that. That analytic looks fundamentally flawed. If you get a yard on 4th & 1 your % of winning goes up 10%? How can altering that one variable in that circumstance alter your % that drastically? Here's the variables that didn't change: You are still at your own 20. You are still behind. You are still well into the 2nd half. Obviously the fact you've hypothetically coverted 4th down & kept the ball will alter the %'s, but 10%?? I just dont buy it. And these are what these guys are making game defining decisions based on.


But just putting all of that to one side, there has to be more to decision making than just pure analytics. There's all kind of considerations that analytics dont take into account, but should be. But its so new and edgey and such a cool new fad that some coaches(often new/first time) cant help themselves. "We're gonna be aggressive!" "No backward step!" "Attack attack attack!". Sometimes you have to play a longer game. Know your surroundings. The Chargers lost 2 games this season they could/should've won. They're out the playoffs when they could/should be in. And its Staley's fault.

 

The one inside his own 40 was a killer allowed the Raiders to score too.

 

It was the 18yard line. Its basically instant points against if you dont make it.

 

If I recall in the Chiefs game the Chargers were up 4 inside of 2 minutes, first half.

Gambled instead of taking easy 3 to go up a full touchdown. Gambled another time. Failed.
So end up down 3 eventually instead of up 3.

You have to call the game completely differently at that point.

Staley is clearly in the camp taking the analytics too seriously.
Staley, John Harbaugh, and probably Lane Kiffin come to mind. FGs aren’t worth points anymore apparently

 

STEFANSKI!