It wasn't a criticism. The Browns are better when Baker is doing less. That's what I took from that stat. Huh? When did I say anything about 300yds? I'm lost.
You bounce between ESPN and PFF to suit your narrative. What you seem to be excluding this time is that PFF graded Mayfield 8th among QBs in 2020 and that ranking moved to 2nd during the second half of 2020.
I don't have my PFF subscription anymore, so I'm not sure what 2021 started as but I would imagine he was still in the Top 5-10 until the Arizona injury. Again... his line for those five games: 116 of 173 (67.1%), 1,474 yards (245.7 YPG), 6 TD (3.1%), 3 INT (1.6%), 97.8 QB rating As they tend to do, they would probably have taken the INT in Kansas City (a tipped ball on a throw-away during his last drive) as well as the INT against Houston (rookie Anthony Schwartz stopped on his route and the defender had unimpeded access to the ball; this was also the play that led to his first shoulder injury). That moves the line to... 6 TD, 1 INT which would change the rating to 103.7. Obviously impossible to know if he'd sustain that level of play but that 103.7 would be 3rd in the NFL right now and that TD:INT ratio would be 1st. THAT is the QB that non-haters expected to see and were in fact seeing until his shoulder injury was made exponentially worse and he should have been shut down for the year while he recovered.
This is 100% a fair argument. While I don't know that you're completely saying Mayfield shouldn't be discarded (your analysis of him as a game manager at best when not throwing often would seem to state otherwise), your spot-on with giving him big dollars for what has been, thus far, very inconsistent play. I ascribe that to very inconsistent surroundings while others (not saying you, per se) pin it squarely on the QB. No secret I have been a *HUGE* Mayfield fan since before he was even a Brown. I am confident is saying that if the Browns do move on from him after a rough 2021 that it will be Drew Brees 2.0. Eerily similar, in fact, as both had up-and-down careers during their first four years and would be discarded after a severe shoulder injury. Brees: 1,110 of 1,782 (62.3%), 12,127 yards (209.1 YPG), 79 TD (4.2%), 53 INT (2.8%), 84.7 QB rating, 30-28 record Mayfield: 1,185 of 1,924 (61.6%), 1,4125 yards (235.4 YPG), 92 TD (4.5%), 56 (2.7%) INT, 87.8 QB rating, 29-30 record He'll go somewhere and have tremendous success like Brees did in New Orleans.
Don't think I've ever used ESPN (sucks) stats in my life. 100% of those came from PFF. I haven't used a single grade in anything I've posted. I have zero confidence in their grading system. I do have confidence in their ability to see if a throw went 20 yards, if it was generated out of play action or shotgun, what the down and distance was, if the QB was under pressure. Basic stuff that you could teach someone off the street to recognize in about 30 minutes. When I say Baker was "ranked" I mean strictly by the numbers. But since you brought it up Baker's passing grade in 2020 was 10th - not 8th. He was the 13th ranked QB in total offense (pass, run, fumble).
I'm not sure what you mean by "as they tend to do". I just looked at the PFF '21 stats and compared them to NFL stats and for the top 15 QBs they match 100%. Before I go too much farther what exactly has the injury done to Baker's game?
p.s. Didn't realize I could pick weeks in PFF. That's pretty cool. Baker's passing grade through Week 5 of 2021 was 22nd...
There’s a article on the nfl general board that Willie posted that says Mayfield may request a trade.
I think a key factor in the discussion of Baker's future is that he was a product of the previous regime. That tends to weigh in these discussions.
I think that's true but it's also true that Baker was an untraditional pick for a "football-guy" front office like Dorsey's. Baker Mayfield the prospect was a PFF.com wet dream come true and all analytics-forward thinking had him as the clear-cut choice. Now that the front office is more in line with the analytics way of thinking, it stands to reason they would have made the same choice, given the option. I think the key factor, at least in the short-term is... who is coming to save the day if Baker is gone? Aaron Rodgers isn't coming to Cleveland. Seattle isn't trading Russell Wilson. Deshaun Watson went 4-12 last time he was out and quit on his team, then was outed as a prolific (allegedly) sexual offender who's most definitely facing suspensions (at best) and straight up extended jail time, if charged and convicted. The rookie QB class is one of the worst ones in memory and the free agency pool is pretty slim pickings. Andy Dalton may be the top guy (again, outside of an Aaron Rodgers) and that's pretty sorry. I logged this in the 2022 thread, but the best move for the Browns will be to trade back from their first pick in R1 (rigth now #12 overall, I believe) to acquire a future first. Ditto is R2 or R3 for future picks. Build the warchest to address the position in 2023 if or when Baker fails to prove next season that he's the guy.
Well I didn't intend to take two days to come back to this but there was a reason I listed Baker's stats in his "best year". *In 2020 Baker Mayfield dropped back 538 times. Among players that played at least 15 games he ranked 17th out of 20 QBs among number of drop backs. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield completed 62.8% of his passes. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 20th out of 20 QBs in completion percentage. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield threw for 3,563 yards. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 17th out of 20 QBs in passing yards. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield threw 26 TD passes. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 12th out of 20 QBs in passing yards. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield threw 8 INTs. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 5th out of 20 QBs in interceptions. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield was pressured 142 times. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 15th out of 20 QBs in total pressures. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield's average time to throw was 2.95 seconds. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 5th out of 20 QBs in average time to throw. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield's threw the ball 30.1% of the time using play action. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked out 7th out of 20 in % of play action passes. *In 2020 Baker Mayfield's threw for 1,371 yards using play action. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 8th out of 20 in passing yards using play action. *In 2020 1,371 out of his total 3,563 yards (38.5%) were generated using play action. Among QBs that played at least 15 games he ranked 3rd out of 20 in % yards generated using play action. Baker Mayfield isn't a bad QB. You can (and have) won games with him. But he's put 4 years on film now and even if you ignore 3 of those years and evaluate him based on 2020 alone what you find is a QB that at best is a decent game manager. Game managers have won Super Bowls. Ben won a Super Bowl in 2005 as a game manager. But I don't recall one that has done it recently. I think the game has moved beyond that because even the best running games in the NFL will have trouble delivering in the playoffs / Super Bowl. In evaluating Baker without the benefit of brown colored glasses you find a guy that isn't terribly accurate. That's been pretty evident from Day 1 simply watching him but it bears out over the 4 years in the stat column. In his "best year" Mayfield completed 62.5% of his passes. As shown above that puts him 20th out of 20 QBs (dead last) who played at least 15 games in 2020 in what is universally known as a QB-friendly offense.. And I'm doing him a favor with that 15gms metric. I could include guys like Minshew (9 games), Brees (12), Burrow (10), Dalton (11), Mullens (10). In then I could tell you in his best season Baker was 25th out of 25 QBs who played at least 50% of their teams snaps. If this was a smear campaign, I could do a better job smearing him. That's not what I'm trying to do. It also shows you how important a strong running game has been for Baker. He's 7th out of 20 QBs in terms of % of dropbacks (30.1%) but he's 3rd out of 20 in % of passing yards gained during play action (38.5%). So, he uses it a lot, it's effective for both he and the football team and when you get away from it like they have done in 2021 he struggles, the team struggles. In 2021, only 24.9% of his dropbacks have been in play action (21st among QBs). In 2018 it was 21.8%, 2019 it was 28.7% (not a coincidence that 2019 was considered his breakout year). You can also break this down weekly. Going back to 2020 when you look at the team success (wins, points scored) you see two pretty good runs. Weeks 2-5 they went 4-0 averaging 37.5 points for game. They did it with heavy play action: Then you have another 6 game stretch later in the season where the team goes 5-1 and scores 27 points per game. Again, heavy play action is the theme. It really displays everything you need to know about Baker. Over those 10 games they are in play action roughly 37% of the time. Baker is completing over 67% of his passes, he's not turning it over and the team is generating points and wins. But his stats aren't gaudy. He has only 18 TDs in 10 games because the running game is working, they are (presumably) staying out of bad down and distances and he is incredibly efficient. This has taken up way more time than I really had. I wanted to get in to his pressure numbers and his overall skillset as a QB (mobile QBs are becoming more and more important) but I simply don't have time. Like I said, from the very beginning. If you can convince Baker to stick around for a very reasonable QB contract maybe that's an avenue. I find that extremely unlikely. If you decide to continue with him and pay him the going rate for QBs in 2022 or 2023 the team will suffer under the weight of that QB salary. Like Lamar, he's just not a guy that you can ask to consistently generate offense and avoid mistakes if he's asked to be a traditional pocket QB or your team gets down and you need to come from behind. It's not his skillset and he doesn't have the running component of his game to offset his weaknesses.
You'll never convince me of that. Again, if you didnt' have the added component of the looming contract I could agree with this. But that's not reality. Baker and his agent are not going to just sit back and say, "Okay, well we'll just play out this year and see what happens." They are going to expect something from the front office - negotiations, a public statement - more likely both that Baker is the guy in Cleveland. And they are going to pressure the franchise to give them at least that. Just riding this thing out won't end well. Everyone says that every year but guys come out every year and perform well. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were supposed to supposed to be in the tight end and running back room, right? As stated, I don't believe you can punt a year on Baker. Nor should you. Only time will tell.
Reality is that the Browns don't have to force anything, regardless of how tragic you try to make our outlook appear...If he proves his worth in 22, i'm sure he'll get paid. If not, so be it. We move on....
