NFL - Random Opinions

I think Zimmer was on the top of my list.

I'll double check later tonight.

 

Good stuff to read here, I enjoyed it.

I think the Vikings are the best 1-3 team in the world and Zim needs to go... tired of defending the guy and he just doesnt seem to be able to get this team over the hump and quite frankly they are very talented. Average doesnt cut it and he's had plenty of time. Great RB's, good QB, better defense and no W's = see ya.
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Houston isnt even trying it seems. They have zero motivation and from top to bottom, they are screwed up.
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I like the QB's that were previously mentioned and in my opinion Baker is still average. If it wernt for a good run game and a solid front 4 on defense, I dont know if they would have the high hopes they have in Cleveland. Baker is good, dont get me wrong, but I think he needs to pick it up a notch, if he can. Murray has been unbelievable so far and Hurts is carrying his team.
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The Washington thoughts were interesting. I wonder if they would even entertain a FA QB if Heinicke continues to roll. They may address other options, i dont know.

 

Totally agree Will, they are a talented roster. I've said before i think Spielman is a good GM, you look at his drafts and the moves he's made and thats a good team on paper. With what they have the Vikings should at the very least be pushing the Packers hard for the division crown and being very much in the mix for a wildcard spot, but they're just not getting the job done. Its gonna fall on the HC.

 

@EvertonBears
When I mentioned Taylor I was giving my opinion on the names listed on that poll. I was giving reasons why I didn't think he would be on the block this season.

Zimmer was my choice and, unfortunately for Will and Badd_Man, he is running right where I thought he might. They're 5 games in with 3 losses, 2 wins and the Panthers, Cowboys and Ravens the next 3 up, the chance to sit at 2-6 is pretty strong.

They also have the Chargers, Packers and 49ers in the next 3, so 2-9 is not out of the question.

I think Zimmer could get the axe somewhere over the next 6 games.

 

Mike Zimmer is so frustrating! He's a fake HC IMO

 

Good catch Tim. Yeah Zimmer always looked vulnerable this year but your call now looks a distinct possibility of being correct. If they lose to the Panthers today he is in a world of trouble.

 

How many other GMs, Coaches, Owners ect are holding their breath and hoping that the investigation of the WFT does not expand further? Granted the emails from Gruden came when he was not employeed by the NFL in any capacity but does anybody really think he is the only one using that type of language in emails to or from NFL personal? Perhapse this is why the NFL does not plan to release any more information on the investigation.

 

@EvertonBears - I didn't want to clog up the Browns board with what may be a longer conversation about Baker and the Browns future between you and I.

The bigger concern here will be how this affects contract negotiations for Mayfield. His agent is going to push for something that runs North of $40mil a season. His numbers are already down from 2020, he's dealing with an injury and the possibility looms that the Browns will underperform expectations for 2021.

The argument from Baker's camp will be 2020's success both personally and for the team.

The argument from the Browns will be the personal regression and the chance at missing the playoffs/down record mitigating any of last season's gains.

Now, the team wins are something that both sides use in negotiations that sometimes creates a shady viewpoint, but it does reflect intangibles and when you break down game winning situations (specifically with passers) they do have to be accounted for. In Baker's case, he does not have a strong resume for being the guy that Cleveland can lean on in games where they need to come back or to find ways to win in less than perfect circumstances. With Cleveland having that sample, putting it together with any kind of let down this season in the W/L column only adds to the side of the scale that drives down the price. A down season statistically, coupled with the potential to not make the playoffs this season, creates a situation where Mayfield loses leverage.

However, his camp is not going to back down from where they peg his value because he did something that can't be measured in the previous two metrics -

Baker turned himself into a bit of a media presence that helps sell the team, while also selling himself. They're going to definitely use his cache in negotiations, which will buoy the price some and force the Browns into an awkward scenario.

Cleveland is going to have to decide whether or not they are comfortable with Baker possibly being less than a top 12 to 16 quarterback while potentially paying him top 5 to 10 money. That's not a good recipe to to continue roster building around a quarterback that has shown (to this point in his career) that he needs to have near ideal conditions around him on offense in order to be successful in an above average fashion.

If they pay him at what his market value actually is (+ additional cast for an increased forecast at signal caller) than $37-33mil is a closer to correct payday. You could argue that giving him $40 would be justified based on the life of the contract and what he would be collecting compared to his peers once he gets into the third or fourth year of that deal, but you would also need to take into account that there is no guarantee that Baker will grow into a stronger role at passer. That makes every dollar spent on Mayfield one that cannot get spent on keeping a strong supporting cast around him, lessening his value to the roster in the process.

It's bad timing for both Baker and Cleveland as the Browns are going to need to make a decision on what to set his number at and whether or not to to rethink the position if they can't come to terms.

 

Yeah I didn't either really and tried not to get into too much for that reason. I saw myself as more replying to Will's post but yes good idea moving it here. Its certainly a subject worthy of discussion although we may be of similar opinions on this one.


I said in the offseason the Browns were in an extremely difficult position re Mayfield and a contract extension. Very much a damned if they do damned if they don't vibe. They needed to see more, i felt they were right to. But i have a hunch that the Browns already had a very good bead on what they had here. They know he's never gonna be a top6-8 QB, what they can't have is him getting paid top money to be a top16 QB. They just need him to be on the cusp of top10 production/performance. In a lot of ways its not a big leap at all and both sides are desperate for him to show just a little more.


But this season it just hasn't quite happened and to me its not just the L's they've taken. The teams that have rolled them have the QB's and they're the teams the Browns are rightly looking at as being in their way. Cos the Browns aren't concerned with teams like the Texans & Bears, as well as their own division they're looking at teams like the Chiefs, the Chargers. Who they've lost to and how they've lost, imo the optics haven't been good for Baker.


The injury is a big problem. Shoulders, even on the non throwing arm, are fuckers. For all i tried to sound positive in my last post(they upset easy over there), my gut says the writing is on the wall for Mayfield health wise this year. The big problem with shoulder dislocations is every time you have one it becomes easier to have the next one, it compounds itself each time. What's he had this season 3? 4? He just had 2 in his last game, thats a huge concern*. This talk of strapping/braces etc, its window dressing, his medical staff can't help him, not really. And now i just saw news of a shoulder fracture of some kind?? The Browns are 5games away from their bye, if Mayfield makes it to that without being shut down for the year i'll be very impressed.


As if this hasn't made things complicated enough, we should prob mention Case Keenum, a very capable backup. Now i haven't watched the game yet, busy day. But that stat line did look just a little Bakeresque. The whole league knows Mayfield is in the perfect QB situation, but nothing says disposable like your backup being in that same situation and not looking half bad. If Keenum keeps that up some very hard questions are gonna be asked.


As far as numbers? Personally i don't think $40mil is even in the room let alone on the table. The Browns surely can't do it no matter how much they want it to work and they'd be right. $40 would be a bad deal. Dak barely squeezed that and he had the Cowboys over a fucking barrel! He's also better than Mayfield. There is absolutely a deal to be done here, i think the Browns would draw papers straight up if it were for $30. That imho is all Baker's play deserves. Actually that is still a hell of a lot of coin, and put it with his million endorsements and Baker's a v rich man. Problem is there's always an agent whispering in the ear. But they need to be careful, because imo there is more of a case for the Browns going the "Dak" route than the Cowboys did. There is also a case forming for moving on, as much as they might loathe to right now. There's a LOT of QB's would look very good playing with that Offense.


Anyway sorry for the long post.


*Side note: Dislocations can be so fucking painful, i respected the ass out of him for going back in after the 2nd one in that Cards game. That took real guts.

 

Yeah, I am grateful that we have Keenum as our backup. He is very capable of leading a team short term, but on most throws past 10 yards it is painfully obvious that he doesn't have the same arm as Baker Mayfield...and Mayfield obviously doesn't have the same arm as some other guys, so that tells you all you need to know about Keenum. The game plan will have to remain vanilla and teams won't have to spend a lot of personnel protecting down field. This will make it more and more difficult to have a successful run game the longer he is in as the starter.

I hope you are right! I agree that he isn't in the realm of $40K, he just isn't that guy. But I want him to remain our QB because I think we can win a lot of games with him. The longer he is in the system the better he is going to be. I don't think it is easy to find a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes or even Kyler Murray. If it were easy, the first two wouldn't have lasted on the draft board as long as they did. It is a crap shoot at best and easy to crap out when drafting a guy. I actually think we got lucky that Baker is as good as he is, even if not as good as the other's mentioned. I want him to stick around because as long as Stefanski is around, I think they will be just good enough that they will be playing a QB lottery in hopes of getting lucky. I'd rather spend draft capital on better players around the QB position. Baker's good, not Hall of Fame good, but if the Browns win a Super Bowl under his control, they will build a monument, not a statue of him in Cleveland.

 

Dont they have him under contract for next season as well? If so there is no reason for the browns to be in a rush to sign him to longer deal.

 

They could, and they may even consider that the best route, but Allen signing that 6 year deal combined with Lamar's impending mammoth payday is only going to put the squeeze on more for the Browns to get something done sooner rather than later.

Baker's people may ultimately decide to ride out the 5th year and try to strangle the Browns into either giving him the franchise tag to a larger than realistic sum (long way to a similar situation as Dak's), but considering his injury history they should probably try to cash in while the team still considers him the only option available to lead the team.

To that last point - Let's play the 'what if?' game.

What if Aaron Rodgers finds the market willing to pay him a very large sum for a 3 year deal, but the only suitors available give him less than appealing feelings towards wanting to pack his bags? Cleveland would actually be a solid place for him to go to, considering the make up of the starting roster, but I'm betting he wants warmer air and a relaxed atmosphere. If Stafford hadn't gone to LA, Herbert hadn't been drafted to the City of Angels and Trey Lance wasn't the heir apparent in the Bay Area, then I think that would be his preferred options. Of course, signing Rodgers to the Browns would lend to Baker needing to be immediately traded, and there would be a bit of a shit storm... at first.

However, would Cleveland fans be good with dealing Baker after signing Rodgers? I'm thinking Aaron would be greeted with open arms.

What if Baker still doesn't show strong enough improvement to give the front office and coaching staff confidence that he is the long term answer by the end of the 2022 season? Would Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr be seen as a combination of more affordable and perhaps better options?

Cleveland is in a situation where the player's name is outplaying the player's play at this point in his career. It's a much better spot for the player than it is for the team, and I'm not sold that it's in Cleveland's best interest to risk going into 2022 without a contract, so long as they can sign him for 5 years or under at $33mil or under.

That's likely far below what Mayfield's people are going to want.

 

If he won them a SB he would be elected mayor for life.

 

This is a point i meant to make but it was late and i was tired so forgot.

Part of the decision the Browns are gonna have with Baker will be tied to their level of ambition and risk tolerance. What is the actual goal? Not talking about soundbites for the fans in offseason pressers, the real goal. Are the Browns satisfied with a winning record and playoff appearance each season or are they prepared to go for broke the way some other teams have recently. Its a valid question. I don't need to tell you about how long the down years were, when you've been thru what the Browns have there's nothing wrong with just wanting a sustained period of relative success and not wanting to rock the boat which could provide that.

With Mayfield they can sustain the winning record model for some time, even with him getting something in the $30-35mil bracket. But outside of a season where everything falls into place, i've never considered them a fav to represent the conference, let alone win it all. The AFC is too stacked and there's too many QBs who are better.

IF they could upgrade the QB then with that roster & coaching staff the Browns become a different proposition entirely. But finding a QB is never anything less than a perilous task. It would be hugely risky to move off Baker, both in terms of on field production, and as Tim mentioned off field as well Mayfield has ingrained himself massively(and quite unusually), the PR side might not be easy for the Browns to manage.

Like i said, difficult decision. The term "team friendly" gets bandied around more than it should in the NFL, but the best solution would be the acceptance by Baker of a contract that isn't at the usual stratospheric levels, meaning no market reset. Tim mentioned Josh Allen, Lamar, id throw in Kyler too down the line. These are guys that are getting paid and thats that. There's no thought at all of anything else. Baker isn't in that group and midway thru his 4th season im really not sure the development is left to ever get him there. The path to least resistance lies with him getting this, im just not sure he will. Players dont tend to.

 

@Tim one of our biggest discussions last offseason was around the Darnold trade. I plan to revisit this in the next 2-3weeks when we get to the midpoint of the season and can look at how its gone. I actually came very close to bringing it up this week purely cos the way things have gone recently the next 2 games feel suddenly important to Darnold's future in Carolina, but time constraints kept me off it and its prob for the best.

One thing i will say tho, after week 2-3 the whole NFL media was having a giant circle jerk over Sam Darnold as a Panther. Fast forward just a few weeks and suddenly they're coming out saying he's done! There's probably an entirely separate discussion to be had just on the reactionary, clickbait nature of reporting these days, something that prob extends far beyond the NFL frankly. But for now let me just settle for calling them fickle bastards.

 

@EvertonBears
I think we may have to go closer to the end of the season before we know what Sam may be in Carolina.

He started off hotter than I was anticipating, but the last 3 games are being shouldered by him when probably only one of those 3 should be. As an example - Through just over 2 quarters of football the Panthers receivers had something like 8 drops (I believe Robby Anderson was targeted 3 times and had 3 drops alone) against Minnesota and Sam still put together a solid drive at the end of the game to tie it up.

It’s going to be difficult to know whether or not he’s the answer before they get into weeks 10 and beyond where the team is going to be able to evaluate his play independently from the roster around him.

 

Sure lets pick it up later. He's got some very winnable games coming up. A chance to get right back into his stride, but with potential to heap more pressure on him if it goes the other way.

 

Everything is unravelling for the Panthers today. Darnold got the hook in favor of Walker, then a penalty negated a big play by PJ and the guy that committed it got benched.

Rhule needs to get his shit together quickly or else his name is going to start soaring to the top of the 'soon to be axed' list.

Starting to look like Teddy got scapegoated for what is a bigger issue in Carolina.

 

The Bengals are the best team in the AFC?

 

Arguably