Decisions decisions

Why would they not give Ahmed, Brown and maybe Doaks and Scarlett a chance to carve out roles in that offense? None of the backs on that roster come with anything more than a UDFA status.

 

I'll give a longer write up later, but these are two of my favorite RBs for high end production off of later round value.

 

To try and get a good outlook on what both of these rushers will do requires a lot of speculation, but we can base it on the numbers before skewing them in any direction.

Let's start with overall touches as the basis for what either might deliver over a full 17 game schedule -

Myles ended up with around 19 touches per in his 10 games last season. That would put him at around 320 in a full year.

Chase ended up with around 9 touches per game last season. That would put him at around 155 in a 17 game season, which is just under half of what Myles would be projected at if their roles remained exactly the same.

The Averages on those touches:
Myles Gaskin - 4.1 yards per carry, 9.5 yards per reception
Chase Edmonds - 4.4 yards per carry, 7.2 yards per reception

If Myles continued with the same amount of carries per game (14) then he would end up with about 240 carries. That comes out to about 985 yards rushing in a season. It would also get him about 805 yards receiving, totaling roughly 1790 yards on the year.

So now we have to decide how much of an increase or a decrease in roles we see from both players.

Kenyan Drake averaged roughly 18 touches per game with the Cardinals last season. I have a hard time believing that James Conner is going to step in and out touch Chase Edmonds, so we have to spilt these reps up. I don't think it completely flips but I do think Edmonds ends up with roughly 16 touches per game. It doesn't double his workload from last season but it significantly increases it while giving Conner 11 touches each contest. This feel like a fairly decent split to get the talent option they want on the field for the majority of the game while also getting Conner reps where he should be at an optimum level of play for the majority of the season.

So, let's adjust Chase's totals for that new workload. Now we're looking at roughly 825 yards on the ground (11 carries per) and 610 in the air. That's a total of 1435 yards on the year.

If Myles sees any dip in his touches per game it brings the numbers to within a narrow gap, and I think seeing him get some spell time is a reasonable assumption based on the want to keep him available for a full 17. My guess is that he sees something around 16 touches per game (same as Edmonds) because that is a sensible number of times to put the ball in a players hands that you want to funnel the offense through while also keeping him from being banged up for a chunk of the year.

Again, this is all going to be in the eye-of-the-beholder, based on what you personally believe each player's usage total is likely going to be.

I'm extremely high on Chase Edmonds chances to breakout this season and I've actively bought shares of him in all of my dynasty leagues for the past two seasons, so I'm personally going to roll with him on draft day.

However, this is probably closer to a coin flip than what a lot of people may believe.

 

Conner will get 30 carries in his first two games then spend the next 6 weeks on IR.

 

Anybody else for Gaskin and Edmonds?


I’d like to read some more opinions!

 

Gaskin would be my choice.

 

I know this is your show Bald Beagle but I have one I'd like to throw out and see some opinions on -

Ryan Tannehill vs Matthew Stafford

 

Stafford should have better stats. The Titans are a run first and often team.

 

Good one.

Based on just last years stats, Id go Tannehill. Ryan had a better CMP% than Stafford and better TD to INT% also. Tannehill has playoff experience also.

Looking at careers... Tannehill has the higher QB Rating of 92 vs Stafford's 88.9.

You could say that Tannehill is blessed to have been in better programs than the perpetual mess thats been going on in Detroit over the course of Stafford's career, but I still lean towards Tannehill based on the 'what have you done for me lately', thing.

My pick is, Ryan Tannehill.

Looking forward to seeing what others think on this.

 

This is a good one.

I pick Tannehill.

ALLBEIT their numbers were close last year and now Stafford goes to LA Rams /21....I think he will connect very well with Desean Jackson and will like playing in LA.

But Tannehill has a Strong group of receivers and Oh Henry in the Back Field.

I know I can be blamed for been Biased....BUT this is a Good Comparison of Starting QB's.

Also Ryan T. had MORE Fantasy Points last year than Stafford.......something to consider.

 

You guys are looking at Stafford as a Detroit player. He’s playing for the Rams now. The Rams have a very good defense and a good set of skill players compared to Detroit. I can see Stafford averaging at least 5 more fantasy points than Tannehill

 

That is true and a valid observation, but Stafford on the Rams is still a mystery to me and he hasnt played a game there yet... so im still leaning Tannehill and I think Tannehill is underrated and only going to get better, which is just a personal gut feeling. Ryan also has another weapon on the offense to light up this season, which might even open up more ops for other receivers and enhance the already solid run game even more. Stafford should be better, but im not exactly real high on them or McVay... when it comes to Stafford and the Rams, prove it or show me, then i'll sit down to a plate of fried crow.

 

I’m all in on Stafford with McVay.

But I won’t be shocked if Tanny ends up outscoring him when all is said and done.

 

Stafford and McVay for me. McVay made goff look very good at times, Staff is better than goff so i expect great things from Stafford this year.

 

I think I like Stafford but Tannehill is a good one.


I'll take Stafford.

 

Ready for the next one?


D.J. Moore or Tyler Lockett?

 

I like Moore, but Lockett easily for me. More catches, more TD’s, longer track record, vastly superior QB.

 

Locket is a lock

 

Yeah, I'm going with Lockett here as well.

My reasoning may be a little different on it though. I'm not sure that Moore is going to be the guy to have in that Carolina receiving group when all is said and done with.

 

Anyone else?