I would love to see some major development in our 2nd tier WRs this year. What I want to see is that Hollywood Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz can carry this team. If they can prove that, then we can start to imagine life without OBJ, possibly even Jarvis (Though I am a big fan of Landry and it would be a sad day to see him leave). That would open up a lot of cap money for signing the tip tier guys long term. Places like New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay.. They develop their receivers and never seem to pay out that big contract. These are the teams that are constantly playing in the post season instead of watching the post season. Baker needs to become the QB that makes his receivers better.
I can't even begin to talk about this, he has two years left on the current contract and can then be franchised. If he shows that is his ceiling and he just wants a long term deal? HE isn't winning you games, but he isn't losing you games. That is one thing. You can have a team that relies HEAVILY on the run, but when needed that QB that throws 28 TDs and 10 picks, may have thrown 6 of them on final drive game changing drives. It would be the difference between 6 wins or 4 wins or 2 wins or 0 wins if he didn't drive the field and be a prominent factor in winning those games. Value isn't totally in the stat line. If he was just a guy that had the stat line, It would look like: 5 years, $150M, $110M guaranteed If he was a game changer with that stat line it would look like: 7 years, $245M, $140M guaranteed. It gives him more guaranteed money to show they appreciate his extended skill set, but without being a person that can win games without a lot of help, ala Peyton Manning/Tom Brady, he should be paid accordingly. The long term deal gives him security. It's a win win. Contracts will become $40M/yr commonplace very soon.
I think this is a conversation that the Browns will likely be forced into having at the end of this season. Almost all of the leverage is with Baker at the end of this year, so long as he continues to have that kind of line and Cleveland finishes with a winning record. His position would improve beyond the Browns being able to argue for a more competitive salary if he were to throw for over 4000 and 30. If they pass on locking him up and go into his final year with the intent of tagging him at the conclusion of his contract, I would fully expect Baker's camp to threaten to refuse to report without a new deal. It may be a difficult situation that Cleveland will find themselves in at the end of the season and it will probably make for some interesting story lines.
I agree on all counts. It will be addressed at the latest in the off season, unless it is already taking place now that Chubb is finalized. Quite frankly, I have seen what having a less than average QB looks like. Baker is not less than average. His stats may currently be average, but there is a lot more in him if you watch him play. He is not an average QB that will lose you many games. He might make a bone head decision that costs you a game now and then, but he is also going to look like a genius a couple of games later making that same decision, but with a different outcome. He needs to be taken care of and right now is the best time to do it in my estimate. I think they can sign a friendly deal that makes both sides happy as long as his development continues. I don't think he is the type of person to rest on his laurels. I do think he has aspirations of going down as one of the most successful QBs in the league's history. I think he will strive to be that player, even if he doesn't have the skill set to achieve it. I will take that player all day long. His skill set and football intelligence are above average and that gives a well put together roster a chance at championships. He is a hot commodity, even if he isn't the top echelon premier guy in the league. Berry has impressed me at every turn. I don't think he will take a stance of cornering a QB capable of winning playoff games into a corner to see who flinches. I think he will work hard to get him signed to a long term deal that makes sense to both parties.
With two of the best RBs splitting time we may never find out how good or bad Baker is for a few more seasons. I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at the Steelers run game this season and the Steelers and Browns will be playing for the division title towards the end of the season.
Gid, While I tend to agree with you about Najee Harris improving the Steelers' run game, he can't do that by himself. There's no question the Steelers own a gifted group of receivers. There's also no question that Ben Roethlisberger isn't the same QB he once was. That could very well be attributed to the poor run game in recent years. But if you factor in the turnover on the O-line, I have to question just how effective Harris will be. IF the Steelers are still in the thick of the AFCN title come week 17, it will be because of their defense. Because of the Steelers, Ravens, Browns and an unknown Bengals squad, It's shaping up for an exciting year in the AFC North.
I think our oline is going to surprise people. Dotson is a beast at LG, turner or whatever his name is we signed from the Chargers has been all-pro and a pro bowl player. Everyone is raving about the center Green we drafted, Okefor handled Garrett just fine when we played you guys. I think the worry about our oline is overblown. The oline we built now is much better suited for run blocking than the worn out players who are now gone.
Looks like I could be off on my numbers for Baker...Though, at this point, I can't say he should be paid as much as Allen, it won't be as far off as my numbers were.
$43,000,000.00 a year is what Allen is averaging. If you guys don’t sign Mayfield this season that will be his starting point next offseason. It’s getting to the breaking point here with these salaries. I really feel like if your QB isn’t on a rookie deal you might not be able to field a championship caliber team anymore. Good news for the Steelers and Bengals is that both the ravens and Browns are about to get strapped down with ridiculous QB contracts depleting their roster of other positions. Tampa has the best situation with a great QB that isn’t draining the bank. When a player signs a huge contract like that they are basically telling their team that they don’t want to win championships just make money.
Bad news in that is if the Bengals found their guy then they aren't far off from needing to pay him. And the rest of the roster isn't up to speed yet. Steelers are still searching so by the time they find their guy who knows what the roster will look like. I'd rather have my franchise guy on the roster and have a salary cap problem to worry about then not have my guy at all. The Steelers are probably in the worst position right now in the division. A has been under center and no solution at the moment. Your wasting contract years for every position on the roster right now hoping Ben finds the fountain of youth. The Chiefs don't seem to have that issue with Mahomes. Packers are paying Rodgers but still contending. It's only an issue when you make mistakes with other positions.
I think the Browns are running into a situation where Baker is going to demand in the neighborhood of $40mil a season over 5 years with a boatload upfront and management is going to be stuck trying to work up wording that best situates them instead of pushing for less cash. Mayfield will get the big payday, but Berry and company are going to want as many outs with as little dead cap repercussions as possible. That's likely the only way they can get returned leverage on the next contract in the event that Baker doesn't progress much beyond his current play. If he does markedly improve, the contract will likely be renegotiated with one or two years remaining. That would be the longer contract for 7 years with a shit ton of guarantees wrote into it that makes him a Brown for the greater majority of his career. This next contract is going to be the one that decides whether or not that happens, IMO. And if anyone reading this thinks that $40 mil is going to be too lofty for Cleveland to consider - There will potentially be 7 quarterbacks earning over $40mil in 2023, with number 8 earning $36mil, and that would be Ryan Tannehill.
I know the NFL's salary cap isn't the same as the NBA's....but I wonder if they will at some point look at proposing max contracts with Bird exception style bonuses built in.
Gonna be tough to come up with a workaround for owners when the union has the strength they currently have, but I wouldn't be surprised if they try to figure out some way of reeling these kind of deals in. It's going to take some creative thinking that doesn't involve ownership collusion to reverse any of the current spending trends.
Agreed. The Union currently has some unprecedented strength. But this is one area where I feel the owners have a legit beef. Simply upping the overall cap isn't the answer.
Why not just exempt QBs from the salary cap? Then the other players make more money, the QBs set their own market. The teams can better equip the entire roster, with less effected by the QB, etc. I think teams would be in a better position to compete if that were the case. I know the general consensus is a QB makes the team, but in reality, if everything else is equal, I don't think it would change much. One guy is one guy. You still have to have a team around you to be successful.
I don't hate it but you could still run into a cap issue with your star pass rushers, left tackles, or safeties suddenly demanding way more money. But it's a creative idea and that is what it's going to take to come up with a resolution.
I'm not sure how to rank Baker. Is he top ten material now? I don't think so, but a full year of what his second half looked like would change my mind. I think that's the sticking point. I love Baker, but last year was by any measure a "unique one". We had a soft schedule, and were once again adjusting to a new coaching staff. Is he "along for the ride, or driving". I'm also not sure. Don't get me wrong, he is one of the driving forces in our rise, and that's just a fact. Still I can't quite go along with he's "the driving force", and maybe he doesn't need to be right now, and maybe that's OK, but is it "elite"? all that said, where does he fit into the salary ranks. As mush as I would like to say Baker is better than Josh Allen, I don't believe it right now. Give me another year and maybe I will be comfortable making that claim, but not yet. Lamar isn't even a yardstick IMO. He's just freakishly gifted athletically, and I believe masks his shortcomings. At the same time, if he can show he's able to master the air game, he's a unicorn, and probably Mahomes territory. I gotta believe Baltimore's in a much more similar situation to Cleveland, as opposed to Buffalo, who's seem the promise and growth of Allen, and "believe" he's going to be their man. I think things in Cleveland and in Baltimore are a bit more fuzzy, with the cloud of Wentz and Goff haunting them, at a time where the whole story hasn't been told for either QB. The market is set high, at least it seems so today, but you can't really pay any of them less than Curt Cousins, so $40K is just the pirce of admission. I think the amount of "guaranteed money" is more likely the sticking point, as opposed to the contract total. I believe Baker is a guy who has "bet on himself" consistently, and may be willing to sign a big dollar contract for fewer years, if the number is $45K / year, for say 3 years, placing his annual number above others, yet less guaranteed $, and the challenge to earn the "mega contract" again in a couple years, if he believes in himself. It's going to be interesting to see how Berry and Co. approach this. Lots of our future as a team lies in the balance.
I would agree, but, if that’s the case then the Browns are really in no hurry. They already have him under contract for the next two years. If he is betting on himself then he will play out this year, which is inevitable anyway since it’s his last year off his rookie contract. Then they can sort out the details of a new contract next offseason based on what progress he makes in year two of this system. I have a feeling the Browns will lose in that proposition, but I’m a rose colored glasses kind of fan of Baker.
If $40K is "the market" for a guy you don't want to lose, then why wait? I think Tim is right: Browns will have to pay up, but will look for ways to minimize the long term risk of Baker not developing beyond what he's shown so far. Barring injury or a return to the turnover machine from the "Kitchens era", they will have to pony up the money anyway. Of course I'm like you Irish, I can't see him regressing, so now is the best opportunity to make a deal the team can live with.
